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Aim: To address the uncertainty associated with climate‐driven biogeographical changes in commercial fisheries species through an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) approach. Location: Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS‐LME). Methods: We combined an ensemble SDM platform (BIOMOD 2) and a high‐resolution global climate model (NOAA GFDL CM2.6) to quantify spatiotemporal changes in habitat of two commercially important species in the Northeast US Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS‐LME); American lobster (Homarus americanus); and sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus). An ensemble SDM was calibrated using multi‐decadal fisheries‐independent surveys (1984–2016). Statistically weighted species‐specific ensemble SDM outputs were combined with 80 years of projected bottom temperature and salinity changes in response to a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (an annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO2). Results: Statistically significant changes (p <.05) in habitat suitability for both species were found over a large portion of the study area. Sea scallop undergoes a northward shift over the study period, while American lobster moves further offshore. The ensemble projections showed that several management zones were identified with increases and decreases in species‐specific habitat. Uncertainty due to variations in ensemble member models was also found in the direction of change within each management zone. Main conclusions: This study provides ensemble estimates of climate‐driven changes and associated uncertainties in the biogeography of two economically important species in the United States. Projected climate change in the NEUS‐LME will pose management challenges, and our ensemble projections provide useful information for climate‐ready management of commercial fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°—45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3–5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50–74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies illustrate variable patterns in individual species distribution shifts in response to changing temperature. However, an assemblage, a group of species that shares a common environmental niche, will likely exhibit similar responses to climate changes, and these community-level responses may have significant implications for ecosystem function. Therefore, we examine the relationship between observed shifts of species in assemblages and regional climate velocity (i.e., the rate and direction of change of temperature isotherms). The assemblages are defined in two sub-regions of the U.S. Northeast Shelf that have heterogeneous oceanography and bathymetry using four decades of bottom trawl survey data and we explore temporal changes in distribution, spatial range extent, thermal habitat area, and biomass, within assemblages. These sub-regional analyses allow the dissection of the relative roles of regional climate velocity and local physiography in shaping observed distribution shifts. We find that assemblages of species associated with shallower, warmer waters tend to shift west-southwest and to shallower waters over time, possibly towards cooler temperatures in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Maine, while species assemblages associated with relatively cooler and deeper waters shift deeper, but with little latitudinal change. Conversely, species assemblages associated with warmer and shallower water on the broad, shallow continental shelf from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to Georges Bank shift strongly northeast along latitudinal gradients with little change in depth. Shifts in depth among the southern species associated with deeper and cooler waters are more variable, although predominantly shifts are toward deeper waters. In addition, spatial expansion and contraction of species assemblages in each region corresponds to the area of suitable thermal habitat, but is inversely related to assemblage biomass. This suggests that assemblage distribution shifts in conjunction with expansion or contraction of thermal habitat acts to compress or stretch marine species assemblages, which may respectively amplify or dilute species interactions to an extent that is rarely considered. Overall, regional differences in climate change effects on the movement and extent of species assemblages hold important implications for management, mitigation, and adaptation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few data are available on the movements and behavior of immature Atlantic loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta) from their seasonal neritic foraging grounds within the western north Atlantic. These waters provide developmental habitat for loggerheads originating from several western Atlantic nesting stocks. We examined the long-term movements of 23 immature loggerheads (16 wild-caught and seven headstart turtles) characterizing their seasonal distribution, habitat use, site fidelity, and the oceanographic conditions encountered during their migrations. We identified two movement strategies: (1) a seasonal shelf-constrained north–south migratory pattern; and (2) a year-round oceanic dispersal strategy where turtles travel in the Gulf Stream to the North Atlantic and their northern dispersal is limited by the 10–15°C isotherm. When sea surface temperatures dropped below 20°C, neritic turtles began a migration south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (USA) where they established fidelity to the waters between North Carolina’s Outer Banks and the western edge of the Gulf Stream along outer continental shelf. Two turtles traveled as far south as Florida. Several turtles returned to their seasonal foraging grounds during subsequent summers. Northern movements were associated with both increased sea surface temperature (>21°C) and increased primary productivity. Our results indicate strong seasonal and interannual philopatry to the waters of Virginia (summer foraging habitat) and North Carolina (winter habitat). We suggest that the waters of Virginia and North Carolina provide important seasonal habitat and serve as a seasonal migratory pathway for immature loggerhead sea turtles. North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras acts as a seasonal “migratory bottleneck” for this species; special management consideration should be given to this region. Six turtles spent time farther from the continental shelf. Three entered the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras, traveling in the current to the northwest Atlantic. Two of these turtles remained within an oceanic habitat from 1 to 3 years and were associated with mesoscale features and frontal systems. The ability of large benthic subadults to resume an oceanic lifestyle for extended periods indicates plasticity in habitat use and migratory strategies. Therefore, traditional life history models for loggerhead sea turtles should be reevaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]