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The representation of a land cover type (i.e. habitat) within an area is often used as an explanatory variable in species distribution models. However, it is possible that a simple binary presence/absence of the suitable habitat might be the most important determinant of the presence/absence of some species and, thus, be a better predictor of species occurrence than the continuous parameter (area). We hypothesize that the binary predictor is more suitable for relatively rare habitats (e.g. wetlands) while for common habitats (e.g. forests) the amount of the focal habitat is a better predictor. We used the Third Atlas of Breeding Birds in the Czech Republic as the source of species distribution data and CORINE Land Cover inventory as the source of the landcover information. To test our hypothesis, we fitted generalized linear models of 32 water and 32 forest bird species. Our results show that for water bird species, models using binary predictors (presence/absence of the habitat) performed better than models with continuous predictors (i.e. the amount of the habitat); for forest species, however, we observed the opposite. Thus, future studies using habitats as predictors of species occurrences should consider the prevalence of the habitat in the landscape, and the biological role of the habitat type in the particular species' life history. In addition, performing a preliminary comparison of the performance of the binary and continuous versions of habitat predictors (e.g. using information criteria) prior to modelling, during variable selection, can be beneficial. These are simple steps that will improve explanatory and predictive performance of models of species distributions in biogeography, community ecology, macroecology and ecological conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many large carnivore populations are expanding into human-modified landscapes and the subsequent increase in coexistence between humans and large carnivores may intensify various types of conflicts. A proactive management approach is critical to successful mitigation of such conflicts. The Cantabrian Mountains in Northern Spain are home to the last remaining native brown bear (Ursus arctos) population of the Iberian Peninsula, which is also amongst the most severely threatened European populations, with an important core group residing in the province of Asturias. There are indications that this small population is demographically expanding its range. The identification of the potential areas of brown bear range expansion is crucial to facilitate proactive conservation and management strategies towards promoting a further recovery of this small and isolated population. Here, we used a presence-only based maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to model habitat suitability and identify the areas in the Asturian portion of the Cantabrian Mountains that are likely to be occupied in the future by this endangered brown bear population following its range expansion. We used different spatial scales to identify brown bear range suitability according to different environmental, topographic, climatic and human impact variables. Our models mainly show that: (1) 4977 km2 are still available as suitable areas for bear range expansion, which represents nearly half of the territory of Asturias; (2) most of the suitable areas in the western part of the province are already occupied (77% of identified areas, 2820 km2), 41.4% of them occurring inside protected areas, which leaves relatively limited good areas for further expansion in this part of the province, although there might be more suitable areas in surrounding provinces; and (3) in the eastern sector of the Asturian Cantabrian Mountains, 62% (2155 km2) of the land was classified as suitable, and this part of the province hosts 44.3% of the total area identified as suitable areas for range expansion. Our results further highlight the importance of increasing: (a) the connectivity between the currently occupied western part of Asturias and the areas of potential range expansion in the eastern parts of the province; and (b) the protection of the eastern sector of the Cantabrian Mountains, where most of the future population expansion may be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]