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Increasing occurrence of harmful algal blooms across the land-water interface poses significant risks to coastal ecosystem structure and human health. Defining significant drivers and their interactive impacts on blooms allows for more effective analysis and identification of specific conditions supporting phytoplankton growth. A novel iterative Random Forests (iRF) machine-learning model was developed and applied to two example cases along the California coast to identify key stable interactions: (1) phytoplankton abundance in response to various drivers due to coastal conditions and land-sea nutrient fluxes, (2) microbial community structure during algal blooms. In Example 1, watershed derived nutrients were identified as the least significant interacting variable associated with Monterey Bay phytoplankton abundance. In Example 2, through iRF analysis of field-based 16S OTU bacterial community and algae datasets, we independently found stable interactions of prokaryote abundance patterns associated with phytoplankton abundance that have been previously identified in laboratory-based studies. Our study represents the first iRF application to marine algal blooms that helps to identify ocean, microbial, and terrestrial conditions that are considered dominant causal factors on bloom dynamics., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

There is increasing concern that accelerating environmental change attributed to human-induced warming of the planet may substantially alter the patterns, distribution and intensity of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). Changes in temperature, ocean acidification, precipitation, nutrient stress or availability, and the physical structure of the water column all influence the productivity, composition, and global range of phytoplankton assemblages, but large uncertainty remains about how integration of these climate drivers might shape future HABs. Presented here are the collective deliberations from a symposium on HABs and climate change where the research challenges to understanding potential linkages between HABs and climate were considered, along with new research directions to better define these linkages. In addition to the likely effects of physical (temperature, salinity, stratification, light, changing storm intensity), chemical (nutrients, ocean acidification), and biological (grazer) drivers on microalgae (senso lato), symposium participants explored more broadly the subjects of cyanobacterial HABs, benthic HABs, HAB effects on fisheries, HAB modelling challenges, and the contributions that molecular approaches can bring to HAB studies. There was consensus that alongside traditional research, HAB scientists must set new courses of research and practices to deliver the conceptual and quantitative advances required to forecast future HAB trends. These different practices encompass laboratory and field studies, long-term observational programs, retrospectives, as well as the study of socioeconomic drivers and linkages with aquaculture and fisheries. In anticipation of growing HAB problems, research on potential mitigation strategies should be a priority. It is recommended that a substantial portion of HAB research among laboratories be directed collectively at a small sub-set of HAB species and questions in order to fast-track advances in our understanding. Climate-driven changes in coastal oceanographic and ecological systems are becoming substantial, in some cases exacerbated by localized human activities. That, combined with the slow pace of decreasing global carbon emissions, signals the urgency for HAB scientists to accelerate efforts across disciplines to provide society with the necessary insights regarding future HAB trends., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Anthropogenic nutrient overenrichment, coupled with rising temperatures, and an increasing frequency of extreme hydrologic events (storms and droughts) are accelerating eutrophication and promoting the expansion of harmful algal blooms (HABs) across the freshwater-to-marine continuum. All HABs-with a focus here on cyanobacterial blooms-pose serious consequences for water supplies, fisheries, recreational uses, tourism, and property values. As nutrient loads grow in watersheds, they begin to compound the effects of legacy stores. This has led to a paradigm shift in our understanding of how nutrients control eutrophication and blooms. Phosphorus (P) reductions have been traditionally prescribed exclusively for freshwater systems, while nitrogen (N) reductions were mainly stressed for brackish and coastal waters. However, because most systems are hydrologically interconnected, single nutrient (e.g., P only) reductions upstream may not necessarily reduce HAB impacts downstream. Reducing both N and P inputs is the only viable nutrient management solution for long-term control of HABs along the continuum. This article highlights where paired physical, chemical, or biological controls may improve beneficial uses in the short term, and offers management strategies that should be enacted across watershed scales to combat the global expansion of HABs across geographically broad freshwater-to-marine continua.