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Graphical abstract Highlights • Primary liver cancer incidence is still on the rise at the global level. • Pronounced increases in liver cancer incidence were mostly observed in countries with high socio-demographic indexes. • Liver cancer has been alleviated in some regions due to the control of HBV and HCV infections. • HCV-related liver cancer might be an important public health issue in the near future. Background & Aims Liver cancer is a common malignant neoplasm worldwide. The etiologies for liver cancer are diverse and the incidence trends of liver cancer caused by specific etiologies are rarely studied. We therefore aimed to determine the pattern of liver cancer incidence, as well as temporal trends. Methods We collected detailed information on liver cancer etiology between 1990–2016, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2016. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in liver cancer age standardized incidence rate (ASR), by sex, region, and etiology, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in liver cancer ASR. Results Globally, incident cases of liver cancer increased 114.0% from 471,000 in 1990 to 1,007,800 in 2016. The overall ASR increased by an average 0.34% (95% CI 0.22%–0.45%) per year in this period. The ASR of liver cancer due to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and other causes increased between 1990 and 2016. The corresponding EAPCs were 0.22 (95% CI 0.08–0.36), 0.57 (95% CI 0.48–0.66), and 0.51 (95% CI 0.41–0.62), respectively. The ASR of liver cancer due to reported alcohol use remained stable (EAPC = 0.10, 95% CI −0.06–0.25). This increasing pattern was heterogeneous across regions and countries. The most pronounced increases were generally observed in countries with a high socio-demographic index, including the Netherlands, the UK, and the USA. Conclusions Liver cancer remains a major public health concern globally, though control of hepatitis B and C virus infections has contributed to the decreasing incidence in some regions. We observed an unfavorable trend in countries with a high socio-demographic index, suggesting that current prevention strategies should be reoriented, and much more targeted and specific strategies should be established in some countries to forestall the increase in liver cancer. Lay summary Liver cancer is a common malignant neoplasm worldwide. The incidence patterns of liver cancer caused by different etiologies varied considerably across the world. In this study, we aim to determine the pattern of liver cancer incidence as well as the temporal trends, thereby facilitating the establishment of more tailored prevention strategies for liver cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Predictions of primary liver cancer (PLC) incidence rates and case numbers are critical to understand and plan for PLC disease burden.Methods: Data on PLC incidence rates and case numbers from 1990 to 2017 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease database. The estimated average percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the trends of PLC age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs). Bayesian age-period-cohort models were constructed to project PLC incidence rates and case numbers through 2030.Results: Globally, the PLC case number doubled from 472 300 in 1990 to 953 100 in 2017. The case number will further increase to 1 571 200 in 2030, and the ASR will increase from 11.80 per 100 000 in 2018 to 14.08 per 100 000 in 2030. The most pronounced increases are observed in people afflicted by non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and in older people. The trends of PLC incidence rates between 1990 and 2030 are heterogeneous among countries and can be summarized as five scenarios: (i) 46 countries that have and will continue to experience a persistent increase (e.g. Australia); (ii) 21 countries that experienced an initial decrease (or remained stable) but are predicted to increase (e.g. China); (iii) 7 countries that experienced an initial increase but are predicted to remain stable (e.g. USA); (iv) 29 countries that experienced an initial increase but are predicted to decrease (e.g. Egypt); and (v) 82 countries that have and will continue to experience a persistent decrease (e.g. Japan).Conclusion: PLC incidence rates and case numbers are anticipated to increase at the global level through 2030. The increases in people afflicted by NASH and among older people suggest a dearth of attention for these populations in current prevention strategies and highlight their priority in future schedules for global control of PLC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Liver cancer is a commonly diagnosed malignancy in China. The etiologies of liver cancer are widely known, although studies on temporal trends in liver cancer caused by specific etiologies are rare. Methods: Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cancer were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2017. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to quantify temporal trends in the age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of liver cancer from 1990 to 2017. Results: Nationwide, the number of incident cases of liver cancer increased from 258 000 in 1990 to 515 900 in 2017. The ASIR decreased from 27.16 per 100 000 to 26.04 per 100 000 during this period, with an EAPC of −0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] −0.84, −0.44). The number of deaths increased from 245 300 in 1990 to 418 200 in 2017, and the ASMR decreased from 26.72 to 21.30 (EAPC = −1.16, 95% CI −1.35, −0.97). The most pronounced decreases in the ASIR and ASMR were observed in liver cancer due to hepatitis B and in people aged 15‐49 years. Conclusions: Since the extensive efforts for prevention of hepatitis B virus infection, the incidence of liver cancer due to hepatitis B has significantly decreased. However, liver cancer due to hepatitis C, NASH, and other causes remains a major public health concern. Additional preventive strategies tailored to liver cancer are needed to further reduce its disease burden in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The incidence of primary liver cancer (PLC) continues to increase worldwide. The incidence trends and patterns of PLC associated with different age at diagnosis remain unknown.Methods: We collected detailed information on PLC between 1990 and 2017 from Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Estimated annual percentage changes in the PLC age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) diagnosed by age, sex, region, and etiology were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in PLC ASR.Results: Globally, the number of PLC cases for which the age at diagnosis was <30 years decreased from 17,381 in 1990 to 14,661 in 2017, whereas the number of PLC cases diagnosed at age 30 to 59 and ≥60 years old increased from 216,561 and 241,189 in 1990 to 359,770 and 578,344 in 2017, respectively. The ASR of PLC cases with age at diagnosis <30 years and between 30 and 59 years decreased in both sexes, whereas the ASR of PLC with age at diagnosis ≥60 years increased in males and remained stable in females at the global level. Males had a more dramatic increase in PLC diagnosed at age ≥60 years but a milder decrease in PLC diagnosed between 30 and 59 years of age. This decrease was attributed largely to the reduction in PLC caused by hepatitis B and hepatitis C and was consistent in most regions except for developed countries, in which the ASR of PLC increased irrespective of sex and age. The ASR of PLC due to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) increased by the greatest magnitude in most regions.Conclusion: PLC in highly endemic regions has been partly alleviated due to the potent control of hepatitis, especially among young and middle-aged people. However, an unfavorable trend was observed in most developed countries and in elderly populations. As such, PLC prevention schedules should give more attention to NASH and elderly patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]