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Background: Non-fatal self-harm is one of the most frequent reasons for emergency hospital admission and the strongest risk factor for subsequent suicide. Repeat self-harm and suicide are key clinical outcomes of the hospital management of self-harm. We have undertaken a comprehensive review of the international literature on the incidence of fatal and non-fatal repeat self-harm and investigated factors influencing variation in these estimates as well as changes in the incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide over the last 30 years. Methods and Findings: Medline, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Google Scholar, article reference lists and personal paper collections of the authors were searched for studies describing rates of fatal and non-fatal self-harm amongst people who presented to health care services for deliberate self-harm. Heterogeneity in pooled estimates of repeat self-harm incidence was investigated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. The search identified 177 relevant papers. The risk of suicide in the 12 months after an index attempt was 1.6% (CI 1.2–2.4) and 3.9% (CI 3.2–4.8) after 5 years. The estimated 1 year rate of non-fatal repeat self-harm was 16.3% (CI 15.1–17.7). This proportion was considerably lower in Asian countries (10.0%, CI 7.3–13.6%) and varies between studies identifying repeat episodes using hospital admission data (13.7%, CI 12.3–15.3) and studies using patient report (21.9%, CI 14.3–32.2). There was no evidence that the incidence of repeat self-harm was lower in more recent (post 2000) studies compared to those from the 1980s and 1990s. Conclusions: One in 25 patients presenting to hospital for self-harm will kill themselves in the next 5 years. The incidence of repeat self-harm and suicide in this population has not changed in over 10 years. Different methods of identifying repeat episodes of self-harm produce varying estimates of incidence and this heterogeneity should be considered when evaluating interventions aimed at reducing non-fatal repeat self-harm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Around 67 million pets are owned by households in the United Kingdom, and an increasing number of these are exotic animals. Approximately a third of pets are purchased through retail outlets or direct from breeders. A wide range of infections can be associated with companion animals. Objectives: This study uses a systematic literature review to describe the transmission of zoonotic disease in humans associated with a pet shop or other location selling pets (incidents of rabies tracebacks and zoonoses from pet food were excluded). Data sources: PubMed and EMBASE. Results: Fifty seven separate case reports or incidents were described in the 82 papers that were identified by the systematic review. Summary information on each incident is included in this manuscript. The infections include bacterial, viral and fungal diseases and range in severity from mild to life threatening. Infections associated with birds and rodents were the most commonly reported. Over half of the reports describe incidents in the Americas, and three of these were outbreaks involving more than 50 cases. Many of the incidents identified relate to infections in pet shop employees. Limitations: This review may have been subject to publication bias, where unusual and unexpected zoonotic infections may be over-represented in peer-reviewed publications. It was also restricted to English-language articles so that pathogens that are more common in non-Western countries, or in more exotic animals not common in Europe and the Americas, may have been under-represented. Conclusions/implications: A wide spectrum of zoonotic infections are acquired from pet shops. Salmonellosis and psittacosis were the most commonly documented diseases, however more unusual infections such as tularemia also appeared in the review. Given their potential to spread zoonotic infection, it is important that pet shops act to minimise the risk as far as possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a stratified analysis, the results from different strata if homogeneity assumption is met are pooled together to obtain a single summary estimate for the common effect parameter. However, the effect can appear homogeneous across strata using one measure but heterogeneous using another. Consequently, two researchers analyzing the same data can arrive at conflicting conclusions if they use different effect measures. In this paper, the author draws on the sufficient component cause model to develop a stratified-analysis method regarding a particular effect measure, the ‘peril ratio’. When there is no mechanistic interaction between the exposure under study and the stratifying variable (i.e., when they do not work together to complete any sufficient cause), the peril ratio is constant across strata. The author presents formulas for the estimation of such a common peril ratio. Three real data are re-analyzed for illustration. When the data is consistent with peril-ratio homogeneity in a stratified analysis, researchers can use the formulas in this paper to pool the strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies aimed at understanding the association between induced abortion and HIV are scarce and differ on the direction of the association. This paper aims to show the prevalence of induced abortion in a sample of pregnancies of women living and not living with HIV/Aids, determining variables associated with pregnancy termination and linked to the life course of women and to the specific context of the pregnancy. Methods: Data came from a cross-sectional study, using interviewer-administered questionnaire, developed with women that attended public health services in Porto Alegre, Brazil. A generalized estimating equation model with logit link measured the association between determinants and abortion. Findings: The final sample was composed of 684 women living with HIV/Aids (2,039 pregnancies) and 639 women not living with HIV/Aids (1,539 pregnancies). The prevalence of induced abortion among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids was 6.5%, while in women not living with HIV/Aids was 2.9%. Among women living with HIV/Aids, the following were associated with induced abortion in the multivariable analysis: being older, having a higher education level, having had more sexual partners (i.e., variables linked to the life course of women), having had children prior to the index pregnancy and living with a sexual partner during pregnancy (i.e., variables linked to the context of each pregnancy). On the other hand, among women not living with HIV/Aids, only having a higher education level and having had more sexual partners (i.e., determinants linked to the life course of women) were associated with voluntary pregnancy termination in multivariable analysis. Conclusion: Although determinants are similar between women living and not living with HIV/Aids, prevalence of induced abortion is higher among pregnancies in women living with HIV/Aids, pointing to their greater social vulnerability and to the need for public policy to address prevention and treatment of HIV associated with reproductive issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a performance measure for a prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is insensitive to the addition of strong markers. A number of measures sensitive to performance change have recently been proposed; however, these relative-performance measures may lead to self-contradictory conclusions. This paper examines alternative performance measures for prediction models: the Lorenz curve-based Gini and Pietra indices, and a standardized version of the Brier score, the scaled Brier. Computer simulations are performed in order to study the sensitivity of these measures to performance change when a new marker is added to a baseline model. When the discrimination power of the added marker is concentrated in the gray zone of the baseline model, the AUC and the Gini show minimal performance improvements. The Pietra and the scaled Brier show more significant improvements in the same situation, comparatively. The Pietra and the scaled Brier indices are therefore recommended for prediction model performance measurement, in light of their ease of interpretation, clinical relevance and sensitivity to gray-zone resolving markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It is known that experience of a previous crash is related to incidence of future crashes in a cohort of New Zealand cyclists. This paper investigated if the strength of such association differed by crash involvement propensity and by the need for medical care in the previous crash. Methods: The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four national databases. The crash involvement propensity was estimated using propensity scores based on the participants' demographic, cycling and residential characteristics. Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed with multivariate and propensity score adjustments. Analyses were then stratified by quintiles of the propensity score. Results: A total of 801 (31.0%) participants reported having experienced at least one bicycle crash in the twelve months prior to the baseline survey. They had a higher risk of experiencing crash events during follow-up (hazard ratio (HR): 1.43; 95% CI: 1.28, 1.60) but in the stratified analysis, this association was significant only in the highest two quintiles of the propensity score where the likelihood of having experienced a crash was more than 33%. The association was stronger for previous crashes that had received medical care (HR 1.63; 95% CI: 1.41, 1.88) compared to those that had not (HR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.49). Conclusions: Previous crash experience increased the risk of future crash involvement in high-risk cyclists and the association was stronger for previous crashes attended medically. What distinguishes the high risk group warrants closer investigation, and the findings indicate also that health service providers could play an important role in prevention of bicycle crash injuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is rising in middle income countries. Population based strategies to reduce specific CHD risk factors have an important role to play in reducing overall CHD mortality. Reducing dietary salt consumption is a potentially cost-effective way to reduce CHD events. This paper presents an economic evaluation of population based salt reduction policies in Tunisia, Syria, Palestine and Turkey. Methods and Findings: Three policies to reduce dietary salt intake were evaluated: a health promotion campaign, labelling of food packaging and mandatory reformulation of salt content in processed food. These were evaluated separately and in combination. Estimates of the effectiveness of salt reduction on blood pressure were based on a literature review. The reduction in mortality was estimated using the IMPACT CHD model specific to that country. Cumulative population health effects were quantified as life years gained (LYG) over a 10 year time frame. The costs of each policy were estimated using evidence from comparable policies and expert opinion including public sector costs and costs to the food industry. Health care costs associated with CHDs were estimated using standardized unit costs. The total cost of implementing each policy was compared against the current baseline (no policy). All costs were calculated using 2010 PPP exchange rates. In all four countries most policies were cost saving compared with the baseline. The combination of all three policies (reducing salt consumption by 30%) resulted in estimated cost savings of $235,000,000 and 6455 LYG in Tunisia; $39,000,000 and 31674 LYG in Syria; $6,000,000 and 2682 LYG in Palestine and $1,3000,000,000 and 378439 LYG in Turkey. Conclusion: Decreasing dietary salt intake will reduce coronary heart disease deaths in the four countries. A comprehensive strategy of health education and food industry actions to label and reduce salt content would save both money and lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Community-based peer support has been shown to be effective in improving exclusive breastfeeding rates in a variety of settings. Methods: We conducted a cost analysis of a community cluster randomised-controlled trial (Promise-EBF), aimed at promoting exclusive infant feeding in three sites in South Africa. The costs were considered from the perspective of health service providers. Peer supporters in this trial visited women to support exclusive infant feeding, once antenatally and four times postpartum. Results: The total economic cost of the Promise-EBF intervention was US$393 656, with average costs per woman and per visit of US$228 and US$52, respectively. The average costs per woman and visit in an operational ‘non research’ scenario were US$137 and US$32 per woman and visit, respectively. Investing in the promotion of exclusive infant feeding requires substantial financial commitment from policy makers. Extending the tasks of multi-skilled community health workers (CHWs) to include promoting exclusive infant feeding is a potential option for reducing these costs. In order to avoid efficiency losses, we recommend that the time requirements for delivering the promotion of exclusive infant feeding are considered when integrating it within the existing activities of CHWs. Discussion: This paper focuses on interventions for exclusive infant feeding, but its findings more generally illustrate the importance of documenting and quantifying factors that affect the feasibility and sustainability of community-based interventions, which are receiving increased focus in low income settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaria prevalence remains high in many African countries despite massive scaling-up of insecticide treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper evaluates the protective effect of pyrethroid IRS and ITNs in relation to risk factors for malaria based on a study conducted in North-West Tanzania, where IRS has been conducted since 2007 and universal coverage of ITNs has been carried out recently. In 2011 community-based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the two main malaria transmission periods that occur after the short and long rainy seasons. These included 5,152 and 4,325 children aged 0.5–14 years, respectively. Data on IRS and ITN coverage, household demographics and socio-economic status were collected using an adapted version of the Malaria Indicator Survey. Children were screened for malaria by rapid diagnostic test. In the second survey, haemoglobin density was measured and filter paper blood spots were collected to determine age-specific sero-prevalence in each community surveyed. Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in children 0.5–14 years old was 9.3% (95%CI:5.9–14.5) and 22.8% (95%CI:17.3–29.4) in the two surveys. Risk factors for infection after the short rains included households not being sprayed (OR = 0.39; 95%CI:0.20–0.75); low community net ownership (OR = 0.45; 95%CI:0.21–0.95); and low community SES (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.13, 95%CI:0.05–0.34). Risk factors after the long rains included household poverty (per quintile increase: OR = 0.89; 95%CI:0.82–0.97) and community poverty (least poor vs. poorest tertile: OR = 0.26, 95%CI:0.15–0.44); household IRS or high community ITN ownership were not protective. Despite high IRS coverage and equitable LLIN distribution, poverty was an important risk factor for malaria suggesting it could be beneficial to target additional malaria control activities to poor households and communities. High malaria prevalence in some clusters and the limited protection given by pyrethroid IRS and LLINs suggest that it may be necessary to enhance established vector control activities and consider additional interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To determine prevalence and incidence of bacterial vaginosis (BV) and risk factors in young sexually-active Australian women. Methods: 1093 women aged 16–25 years were recruited from primary-care clinics. Participants completed 3-monthly questionnaires and self-collected vaginal smears 6-monthly for 12-months. The primary endpoint was a Nugent Score = 7–10 (BV) and the secondary endpoint was a NS = 4–10 (abnormal flora [AF]). BV and AF prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were derived, and adjusted odds ratios (AOR) calculated to explore epidemiological associations with prevalent BV and AF. Proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine factors associated with incident BV and AF. Results: At baseline 129 women had BV [11.8% (95%CI: 9.4–14.2)] and 188 AF (17.2%; 15.1–19.5). Prevalent BV was associated with having a recent female partner [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.4] and lack of tertiary-education [AOR = 1.9; 1.2–3.0]; use of an oestrogen-containing contraceptive (OCC) was associated with reduced risk [AOR = 0.6; 0.4–0.9]. Prevalent AF was associated with the same factors, and additionally with >5 male partners (MSP) in 12-months [AOR = 1.8; 1.2–2.5)], and detection of C.trachomatis or M.genitalium [AOR = 2.1; 1.0–4.5]. There were 82 cases of incident BV (9.4%;7.7–11.7/100 person-years) and 129 with incident AF (14.8%; 12.5–17.6/100 person-years). Incident BV and AF were associated with a new MSP [adjusted rate ratio (ARR) = 1.5; 1.1–2.2 and ARR = 1.5; 1.1–2.0], respectively. OCC-use was associated with reduced risk of incident AF [ARR = 0.7; 0.5–1.0]. Conclusion: This paper presents BV and AF prevalence and incidence estimates from a large prospective cohort of young Australian women predominantly recruited from primary-care clinics. These data support the concept that sexual activity is strongly associated with the development of BV and AF and that use of an OCC is associated with reduced risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Vitamin B12 deficiency is prevalent in many countries of origin of refugees. Using a threshold of 5% above which a prevalence of low Vitamin B12 is indicative of a population health problem, we hypothesised that Vitamin B12 deficiency exceeds this threshold among newly-arrived refugees resettling in Australia, and is higher among women due to their increased risk of food insecurity. This paper reports Vitamin B12 levels in a large cohort of newly arrived refugees in five Australian states and territories. Methods: In a cross-sectional descriptive study, we collected Vitamin B12, folate and haematological indices on all refugees (n = 916; response rate 94% of eligible population) who had been in Australia for less than one year, and attended one of the collaborating health services between July 2010 and July 2011. Results: 16.5% of participants had Vitamin B12 deficiency (<150 pmol/L). One-third of participants from Iran and Bhutan, and one-quarter of participants from Afghanistan had Vitamin B12 deficiency. Contrary to our hypothesis, low Vitamin B12 levels were more prevalent in males than females. A higher prevalence of low Vitamin B12 was also reported in older age groups in some countries. The sensitivity of macrocytosis in detecting Vitamin B12 deficiency was only 4.6%. Conclusion: Vitamin B12 deficiency is an important population health issue in newly-arrived refugees from many countries. All newly-arrived refugees should be tested for Vitamin B12 deficiency. Ongoing research should investigate causes, treatment, and ways to mitigate food insecurity, and the contribution of such measures to enhancing the health of the refugee communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although the relationship between allergy and cancer has been investigated extensively, the role of allergy in head and neck cancer (HNC) appears less consistent. It is not clear whether allergies can independently influence the risk of HNC in the presence of known strong environmental risk factors, including consumption of alcohol, betel quid, and cigarette. Methods: The current paper reports results from: 1) an original hospital-based case-control study, which included 252 incident cases of HNC and 236 controls frequency-matched to cases on sex and age; and 2) a meta-analysis combining the results of the current case-control study and 13 previously published studies (9 cohort studies with 727,569 subjects and 550 HNC outcomes and 5 case-control studies with 4,017 HNC cases and 10,928 controls). Results: In the original case-control study, we observed a strong inverse association between allergies and HNC [odds ratio = 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27–0.62]. The meta-analysis also indicated a statistically significant inverse association between HNC and allergies [meta-relative risk (RR) = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.63–0.91], particularly strong for allergic rhinitis (meta-RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.40–0.76). In addition, the inverse association between allergies and HNC was observed only among men (meta-RR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.54–0.84) but not among women (meta-RR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.81–1.18). Conclusions: These findings suggest that immunity plays an influential role in the risk of HNC. Future studies investigating immune biomarkers, including cytokine profiles and genetic polymorphisms, are warranted to further delineate the relationship between allergies and HNC. Understanding the relationship between allergies and HNC may help devise effective strategies to reduce and treat HNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: India, with a population of more than 1.21 billion, has the highest maternal mortality in the world (estimated to be 56000 in 2010); and adolescent (aged 15–19) mortality shares 9% of total maternal deaths. Addressing the maternity care needs of adolescents may have considerable ramifications for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)–5. This paper assesses the socioeconomic differentials in accessing full antenatal care and professional attendance at delivery by adolescent mothers (aged 15–19) in India during 1990–2006. Methods and Findings: Data from three rounds of the National Family Health Survey of India conducted during 1992–93, 1998–99, and 2005–06 were analyzed. The Cochran-Armitage and Chi-squared test for linear and non-linear time trends were applied, respectively, to understand the trend in the proportion of adolescent mothers utilizing select maternity care services during 1990–2006. Using pooled multivariate logistic regression models, the probability of select maternal healthcare utilization among women by key socioeconomic characteristics was appraised. After adjusting for potential socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the likelihood of adolescents accessing full antenatal care increased by only 4% from 1990 to 2006. However, the probability of adolescent women availing themselves of professional attendance at delivery increased by 79% during the same period. The study also highlights the desolate disparities in maternity care services among adolescents across the most and the least favoured groups. Conclusion: Maternal care interventions in India need focused programs for rural, uneducated, poor adolescent women so that they can avail themselves of measures to delay child bearing, and for better antenatal consultation and delivery care in case of pregnancy. This study strongly advocates the promotion of a comprehensive ‘adolescent scheme’ along the lines of ‘Continuum of Maternal, Newborn and Child health Care’ to address the unmet need of reproductive and maternal healthcare services among adolescent women in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco smoking (TS) and illicit drug use (IDU) are of public health concerns especially in developing countries, including Bangladesh. This paper aims to (i) identify the determinants of TS and IDU, and (ii) examine the association of TS with IDU among young slum dwellers in Bangladesh. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on a total of 1,576 young slum dwellers aged 15–24 years were extracted for analysis from the 2006 Urban Health Survey (UHS), which covered a nationally representative sample of 13,819 adult men aged 15–59 years from slums, non-slums and district municipalities of six administrative regions in Bangladesh. Methods used include frequency run, Chi-square test of association and multivariable logistic regression. The overall prevalence of TS in the target group was 42.3%, of which 41.4% smoked cigarettes and 3.1% smoked bidis. The regression model for TS showed that age, marital status, education, duration of living in slums, and those with sexually transmitted infections were significantly (p<0.001 to p<0.05) associated with TS. The overall prevalence of IDU was 9.1%, dominated by those who had drug injections (3.2%), and smoked ganja (2.8%) and tari (1.6%). In the regression model for IDU, the significant (p<0.01 to p<0.10) predictors were education, duration of living in slums, and whether infected by sexually transmitted diseases. The multivariable logistic regression (controlling for other variables) revealed significantly (p<0.001) higher likelihood of IDU (OR = 9.59, 95% CI = 5.81–15.82) among users of any form of TS. The likelihood of IDU increased significantly (p<0.001) with increased use of cigarettes. Conclusions/Significance: Certain groups of youth are more vulnerable to TS and IDU. Therefore, tobacco and drug control efforts should target these groups to reduce the consequences of risky lifestyles through information, education and communication (IEC) programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method. Results: The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter. Conclusion: Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a Perspective, David Peiris and Dorairaj Prabhakaran discuss implications and challenges of cardiovascular disease risk assessments in the population of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stroke, like many long-term conditions, tends to be managed in isolation of its associated risk factors and multimorbidity. With increasing access to clinical and research data there is the potential to combine data from a variety of sources to inform interventions to improve healthcare. A ‘Learning Health System’ (LHS) is an innovative model of care which transforms integrated data into knowledge to improve healthcare. The objective of this study is to develop a process of engaging stakeholders in the use of clinical and research data to co-produce potential solutions, informed by a LHS, to improve long-term care for stroke survivors with multimorbidity. Methods: We used a stakeholder engagement study design informed by co-production principles to engage stakeholders, including service users, carers, general practitioners and other health and social care professionals, service managers, commissioners of services, policy makers, third sector representatives and researchers. Over a 10 month period we used a range of methods including stakeholder group meetings, focus groups, nominal group techniques (priority setting and consensus building) and interviews. Qualitative data were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Results: 37 participants took part in the study. The concept of how data might drive intervention development was difficult to convey and understand. The engagement process led to four priority areas for needs for data and information being identified by stakeholders: 1) improving continuity of care; 2) improving management of mental health consequences; 3) better access to health and social care; and 4) targeting multiple risk factors. These priorities informed preliminary design interventions. The final choice of intervention was agreed by consensus, informed by consideration of the gap in evidence and local service provision, and availability of robust data. This shaped a co-produced decision support tool to improve secondary prevention after stroke for further development. Conclusions: Stakeholder engagement to identify data-driven solutions is feasible but requires resources. While a number of potential interventions were identified, the final choice rested not just on stakeholder priorities but also on data availability. Further work is required to evaluate the impact and implementation of data-driven interventions for long-term stroke survivors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Easily identifiable risk factors including: obesity and ethnicity at high risk of diabetes are commonly used to indicate which women should be offered the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to diagnose gestational diabetes (GDM). Evidence regarding these risk factors is limited however. We conducted a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis and individual participant data (IPD) analysis to evaluate the performance of risk factors in identifying women with GDM. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Medline in Process, Embase, Maternity and Infant Care and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) up to August 2016 and conducted additional reference checking. We included observational, cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies reporting the performance characteristics of risk factors used to identify women at high risk of GDM. We had access to IPD from the Born in Bradford and Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy cohorts, all pregnant women in the two cohorts with data on risk factors and OGTT results were included. Results: Twenty nine published studies with 211,698 women for the SR and a further 14,103 women from two birth cohorts (Born in Bradford and the Atlantic Diabetes in Pregnancy study) for the IPD analysis were included. Six studies assessed the screening performance of guidelines; six examined combinations of risk factors; eight evaluated the number of risk factors and nine examined prediction models or scores. Meta-analysis using data from published studies suggests that irrespective of the method used, risk factors do not identify women with GDM well. Using IPD and combining risk factors to produce the highest sensitivities, results in low specificities (and so higher false positives). Strategies that use the risk factors of age (>25 or >30) and BMI (>25 or 30) perform as well as other strategies with additional risk factors included. Conclusions: Risk factor screening methods are poor predictors of which pregnant women will be diagnosed with GDM. A simple approach of offering an OGTT to women 25 years or older and/or with a BMI of 25kg/m2 or more is as good as more complex risk prediction models. Research to identify more accurate (bio)markers is needed. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42013004608 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preterm birth is the most common single cause of perinatal and infant mortality, affecting 15 million infants worldwide each year with global rates increasing. Understanding of risk factors remains poor, and preventive interventions have only limited benefit. Large differences exist in preterm birth rates across high income countries. We hypothesized that understanding the basis for these wide variations could lead to interventions that reduce preterm birth incidence in countries with high rates. We thus sought to assess the contributions of known risk factors for both spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm birth in selected high income countries, estimating also the potential impact of successful interventions due to advances in research, policy and public health, or clinical practice. Methods: We analyzed individual patient-level data on 4.1 million singleton pregnancies from four countries with very high human development index (Czech Republic, New Zealand, Slovenia, Sweden) and one comparator U.S. state (California) to determine the specific contribution (adjusting for confounding effects) of 21 factors. Both individual and population-attributable preterm birth risks were determined, as were contributors to cross-country differences. We also assessed the ability to predict preterm birth given various sets of known risk factors. Findings: Previous preterm birth and preeclampsia were the strongest individual risk factors of preterm birth in all datasets, with odds ratios of 4.6–6.0 and 2.8–5.7, respectively, for individual women having those characteristics. In contrast, on a population basis, nulliparity and male sex were the two risk factors with the highest impact on preterm birth rates, accounting for 25–50% and 11–16% of excess population attributable risk, respectively (p<0.001). The importance of nulliparity and male sex on population attributable risk was driven by high prevalence despite low odds ratios for individual women. More than 65% of the total aggregated risk of preterm birth within each country lacks a plausible biologic explanation, and 63% of difference between countries cannot be explained with known factors; thus, research is necessary to elucidate the underlying mechanisms of preterm birth and, hence, therapeutic intervention. Surprisingly, variation in prevalence of known risk factors accounted for less than 35% of the difference in preterm birth rates between countries. Known risk factors had an area under the curve of less than 0.7 in ROC analysis of preterm birth prediction within countries. These data suggest that other influences, as yet unidentified, are involved in preterm birth. Further research into biological mechanisms is warranted. Conclusions: We have quantified the causes of variation in preterm birth rates among countries with very high human development index. The paucity of explicit and currently identified factors amenable to intervention illustrates the limited impact of changes possible through current clinical practice and policy interventions. Our research highlights the urgent need for research into underlying biological causes of preterm birth, which alone are likely to lead to innovative and efficacious interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to investigate the association between mental health and comprehensive workplace health promotion (WHP) delivered to an entire state public service workforce (~28,000 employees) over a three-year period. Government departments in a state public service were supported to design and deliver a comprehensive, multi-component health promotion program, Healthy@Work, which targeted modifiable health risks including unhealthy lifestyles and stress. Repeated cross-sectional surveys compared self-reported psychological distress (Kessler-10; K10) at commencement (N = 3406) and after 3 years (N = 3228). WHP availability and participation over time was assessed, and associations between the K10 and exposure to programs estimated. Analyses were repeated for a cohort subgroup (N = 580). Data were weighted for non-response. Participation in any mental health and lifestyle programs approximately doubled after 3 years. Both male and female employees with poorer mental health participated more often over time. Women’s psychological distress decreased over time but this change was only partially attributable to participation in WHP, and only to lifestyle interventions. Average psychological distress did not change over time for men. Unexpectedly, program components directly targeting mental health were not associated with distress for either men or women. Cohort results corroborated findings. Healthy@Work was successful in increasing participation across a range of program types, including for men and women with poorer mental health. A small positive association of participation in lifestyle programs with mental health was observed for women but not men. The lack of association of mental health programs may have reflected program quality, its universality of application or other contextual factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Hyperglycaemia in pregnancy (HIP), i.e. gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and diabetes in pregnancy (DIP), increases the risk of various short- and long-term adverse outcomes. However, much remains to be understood about the role of different risk factors in development of HIP. Objective: The aims of this observational study were to examine the role of potential risk factors for HIP, and to investigate whether any single or accumulated risk factor(s) could be used to predict HIP among women attending GDM screening at three centres in urban, semi-urban and rural Tamil Nadu, India. Methodology: Pregnant women underwent a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. Data on potential risk factors was collected and analysed using logistical regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated for significant risk factors and a risk factor scoring variable was constructed. Results: HIP was prevalent in 18.9% of the study population (16.3% GDM; 2.6% DIP). Increasing age and BMI as well as having a mother only or both parents with diabetes were significant independent risk factors for HIP. Among women attending the rural health centre a doubling of income corresponded to an 80% increased risk of HIP (OR 1.80, 95%CI 1.10–2.93; p = 0.019), whereas it was not significantly associated with HIP among women attending the other health centres. The performance of the individual risk factors and the constructed scoring variable differed substantially between the three health centres, but none of them were good enough to discriminate between those with and without HIP. Conclusions: The findings highlight the importance of socio-economic circumstances and intergenerational risk transmission in the occurrence of HIP as well as the need for universal screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibiotic resistance is considered a major threat to global health and is affected by many factors, of which antibiotic use is probably one of the more important. Other factors include hygiene, crowding and travel. The rapid resistance spread in Gram-negative bacteria, in particular extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E), is a global challenge, leading to increased mortality, morbidity and health systems costs worldwide. Knowledge about resistance in commensal flora is limited, including in China. Our aim was to establish the faecal carriage rates of ESBL-E and find its association with known and suspected risk factors in rural residents of all ages in three socio-economically different counties in the Shandong Province, China. Faecal samples and risk-factor information (questionnaire) were collected in 2012. ESBL-E carriage was screened using ChromID ESBL agar. Risk factors were analysed using standard statistical methods. Data from 1000 individuals from three counties and in total 18 villages showed a high and varying level of ESBL-E carriage. Overall, 42% were ESBL-E carriers. At county level the carriage rates were 49%, 45% and 31%, respectively, and when comparing individual villages (n = 18) the rate varied from 22% to 64%. The high level of ESBL-E carriage among rural residents in China is an indication of an exploding global challenge in the years to come as resistance spreads among bacteria and travels around the world with the movement of people and freight. A high carriage rate of ESBL-E increases the risk of infection with multi-resistant bacteria, and thus the need for usage of last resort antibiotics, such as carbapenems and colistin, in the treatment of common infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Though insurance claims data are useful for researching asthma, they have important limitations, such as a diagnostic inaccuracy and a lack of clinical information. To overcome these drawbacks, we used the novel method by merging the clinical data from our asthma cohort with the National Health Insurance (NHI) claims data. Methods and Results: Longitudinal analysis of asthma-related healthcare use from the NHI claims database, merged with data of 736 patients registered in a Korean asthma cohort, was conducted for three consecutive years from registration of the cohort. Asthma-related asthma healthcare referred to outpatient and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and the use of systemic corticosteroids. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for asthma-related healthcare. Over three years after enrollment, many patients changed from tertiary to primary/secondary hospitals with a lack of maintenance of inhaled corticosteroid-based controllers. An independent risk factor for emergency visits was a previous history of asthma exacerbation. In hospitalizations, old age and Asthma Control Test (ACT) score variability were independent risk factors. An independent risk factor for per person cumulative duration of systemic corticosteroids was the FEV1 (Forced expiratory volume in one second)%. The use of systemic corticosteroids was independently associated with being female, the FEV1%, and ACT score variability. Conclusion: We found that old age, being female, long-standing asthma, a low FEV1%, asthma brittleness, asthma drug compliance, and a history of asthma exacerbation were independent risk factors for increased asthma-related healthcare use in Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This work aims to collect and summarize the outcomes on free preconceptual screening examination in rural areas of Hubei Province in 2012. Moreover, this review promotes further understanding of the status of this activity to provide the Family Planning Commission valid scientific data upon which to construct effective policies. Methods: Couples, who complied with the family planning policy and were the residents in agricultural areas or lived in a local rural area for more than six months, were encouraged to participate in the free preconceptual screening examination service provided by the Hubei Provincial Population and Family Planning Commission. This service included 19 screening tests. All the data, including forms, manuals, and test results, were collected from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 in rural areas in Hubei Province. Results: A total of 497,860 individuals participated in the free preconceptual screening examination service, with a coverage rate of 97.1%. 4.0% and 4.8% of the participants exhibited with abnormal blood levels of ALT and creatinine, respectively; 0.36% of the participants tested positive for syphilis; 0.44% and 3.6% of the female participants tested positive for Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis, respectively; and 0.84% and 1.8% of the female participants tested positive for cytomegalovirus (IgM) and Toxoplasma gondii (IgM), respectively. After risk assessment, 59,935 participants might have high-risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. In 2012, the prevalence of birth defects among the parturient who participated in the preconceptual screening examination service was 0.04%, while the prevalence was 0.08% among those who did not participate in the service. Conclusion: Preconceptual screening examination service may help to address the risk factors that can lead to adverse pregnancy outcome. More studies on the relationship between preconceptual screening examination service and prevalence of birth defect or other adverse pregnancy outcomes should be conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The results of the network scale-up (NSU) method in estimating the size of key populations for HIV might be biased if the recruited subjects are not fully informed of the risky behaviors of people in their networks (low visibility), or key populations have a smaller social network (low popularity). We aimed to measure such biases in the size estimation of people who inject drugs (PWIDs), and female sex workers (FSWs) in Iran. Methods: We interviewed 163 male PWIDs, 76 FSWs (known as egos) and 600 subjects from the general population. We selected twenty first-names (ten males and ten females) and asked the study subjects separately how many people they knew with one of these names (known as alters). Visibility Factor (VF) was defined as the percentage of FSW or PWID alters that were aware of their behavior. In addition, the popularity factor (PF) was calculated by dividing the number of alters reported by FSWs and PWIDs into that of the general population. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were calculated using bootstrap technique. Results: The VF was estimated at 54% (95% UI: 52%–56%) for PWID and 45% (95% UI: 42%– 48%) for FSW. The VF among the peer alters was significantly higher than non-peer ones. The PF for PWID and FSW was 69% (95% UI: 66%–73%) and 77% (95% UI: 72%–83%), respectively. The cross-validation and name splitting analysis showed that our estimates were not influenced by any single name. Conclusions: Both correction factors, particularly VF were far from one, and NSU results without correction, could lead to up to 4 times underestimation of the sizes. Therefore, applying these coefficients is necessary in NSU projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In clinical practice, GPs appeared to have an internalized concept of “vulnerability.” This study investigates the variability between general practitioners (GPs) in their vulnerability-assessment of older persons. Methods: Seventy-seven GPs categorized their 75-plus patients (n = 11392) into non-vulnerable, possibly vulnerable, and vulnerable patients. GPs personal and practice characteristics were collected. From a sample of 2828 patients the following domains were recorded: sociodemographic, functional [instrumental activities in daily living (IADL), basic activities in daily living (BADL)], somatic (number of diseases, polypharmacy), psychological (Mini-Mental State Examination, 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale; GDS-15) and social (De Jong-Gierveld Loneliness Scale; DJG). Variability in GPs' assessment of vulnerability was tested with mixed effects logistic regression. P-values for variability (pvar) were calculated by the log-likelihood ratio test. Results: Participating GPs assessed the vulnerability of 10,361 patients. The median percentage of vulnerable patients was 32.0% (IQR 19.5 to 40.1%). From the somatic and psychological domains, GPs uniformly took into account the patient characteristics ‘total number of diseases’ (OR 1.7, 90% range  = 0, pvar = 1), ‘polypharmacy’ (OR 2.3, 90% range  = 0, pvar = 1) and ‘GDS-15’ (OR 1.6, 90% range  = 0, pvar = 1). GPs vary in the way they assessed their patients' vulnerability in the functional domain (IADL: median OR 2.8, 90% range 1.6, pvar<0.001, BADL: median OR 2.4, 90% range 2.9, pvar<0.001) and the social domain (DJG: median OR 1.2, 90% range  = 1.2, pvar<0.001). Conclusions: GPs seem to share a medical concept of vulnerability, since they take somatic and psychological characteristics uniformly into account in the vulnerability-assessment of older persons. In the functional and social domains, however, variability was found. Vulnerability assessment by GPs might be a promising instrument to select older people for geriatric care if more uniformity could be achieved. Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Register [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent studies suggested that insulin glargine use could be associated with increased risk of cancer. We compared the incidence of cancer in new users of glargine versus new users of NPH in a longitudinal clinical cohort with diabetes for up to 6 years. Methods and Findings: From all patients who had been regularly followed at Massachusetts General Hospital from 1/01/2005 to 12/31/2010, 3,680 patients who had a medication record for glargine or NPH usage were obtained from the electronic medical record (EMR). From those we selected 539 new glargine users (age: 60.1±13.6 years, BMI: 32.7±7.5 kg/m2) and 343 new NPH users (61.5±14.1 years, 32.7±8.3 kg/m2) who had no prevalent cancer during 19 months prior to glargine or NPH initiation. All incident cancer cases were ascertained from the EMR requiring at least 2 ICD-9 codes within a 2 month period. Insulin exposure time and cumulative dose were validated. The statistical analysis compared the rates of cancer in new glargine vs. new NPH users while on treatment, adjusted for the propensity to receive one or the other insulin. There were 26 and 28 new cancer cases in new glargine and new NPH users for 1559 and 1126 person-years follow-up, respectively. There were no differences in the propensity-adjusted clinical characteristics between groups. The adjusted hazard ratio for the cancer incidence comparing glargine vs. NPH use was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.36–1.19). Conclusions: Insulin glargine is not associated with development of cancers when compared with NPH in this longitudinal and carefully retrieved EMR data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. Methods and findings: This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (≥20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. Conclusions: Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatial characteristics of dengue fever (DF) incidences is crucial for governmental agencies to implement effective disease control strategies. We investigated the associations between environmental and socioeconomic factors and DF geographic distribution, are proposed a probabilistic risk assessment approach that uses threshold-based quantile regression to identify the significant risk factors for DF transmission and estimate the spatial distribution of DF risk regarding full probability distributions. To interpret risk, return period was also included to characterize the frequency pattern of DF geographic occurrences. The study area included old Kaohsiung City and Fongshan District, two areas in Taiwan that have been affected by severe DF infections in recent decades. Results indicated that water-related facilities, including canals and ditches, and various types of residential area, as well as the interactions between them, were significant factors that elevated DF risk. By contrast, the increase of per capita income and its associated interactions with residential areas mitigated the DF risk in the study area. Nonlinear associations between these factors and DF risk were present in various quantiles, implying that water-related factors characterized the underlying spatial patterns of DF, and high-density residential areas indicated the potential for high DF incidence (e.g., clustered infections). The spatial distributions of DF risks were assessed in terms of three distinct map presentations: expected incidence rates, incidence rates in various return periods, and return periods at distinct incidence rates. These probability-based spatial risk maps exhibited distinct DF risks associated with environmental factors, expressed as various DF magnitudes and occurrence probabilities across Kaohsiung, and can serve as a reference for local governmental agencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: 1) To synthesize the current observational evidence for the association between sedentary behavior and health outcomes using information from systematic reviews. 2) To assess the methodological quality of the systematic reviews found. Methodology/Principal Findings: Medline; Excerpta Medica (Embase); PsycINFO; and Web of Science were searched for reviews published up to September 2013. Additional publications were provided by Sedentary Behaviour Research Network members. The methodological quality of the systematic reviews was evaluated using recommended standard criteria from AMSTAR. For each review, improper use of causal language in the description of their main results/conclusion was evaluated. Altogether, 1,044 review titles were identified, 144 were read in their entirety, and 27 were included. Based on the systematic reviews with the best methodological quality, we found in children and adolescents, strong evidence of a relationship between time spent in sedentary behavior and obesity. Moreover, moderate evidence was observed for blood pressure and total cholesterol, self-esteem, social behavior problems, physical fitness and academic achievement. In adults, we found strong evidence of a relationship between sedentary behavior and all-cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome. In addition, there is moderate evidence for incidence rates of ovarian, colon and endometrial cancers. Conclusions: This overview based on the best available systematics reviews, shows that sedentary behavior may be an important determinant of health, independently of physical activity. However, the relationship is complex because it depends on the type of sedentary behavior and the age group studied. The relationship between sedentary behavior and many health outcomes remains uncertain; thus, further studies are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine the clinical utility of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) testing in achieving medium-term vitamin D (VD) sufficiency in a managed care population. Methods: Retrospective study of a continuously-enrolled patient population in a 3-year period between 2011 and 2013. Primary outcome was VD status at ∼1 year after 25(OH)D testing. Patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, and 25(OH)D test results were gathered from relevant databases and multivariate logistic regression analysis used to study the risk factors of persistent VD deficiency or insufficiency. Results: Of 22,784 patients, 7533 (females 69.3%) did 14,563 25(OH)D tests, with an estimated cost of $582,520. Of the 7533 patients, 1126 had another 25(OH)D test at 300–400 days after the first one. Based on the two test results, 234 patients (20.8%) maintained sufficient 25(OH)D levels; 132 (11.7%) turned from VD-sufficient into VD-insufficient or -deficient; 538 (47.8%) remained VD-insufficient or -deficient, and only 222 (19.7%) improved to be VD-sufficient. Overall, only 8.0% more patients were VD-sufficient at ∼1 year after 25(OH)D testing. Only younger age and higher BMI were independent risk factors for persistent low 25(OH)D levels and high-dose VD use was not associated with achieving VD sufficiency. Conclusions: 25(OH)D testing only benefits a small portion of patients thus lacks clinical utility in achieving VD sufficiency in the medium term but incurs a significant cost. A practical strategy to treat VD deficiency or insufficiency is needed; without it, 25(OH)D testing adds little value to most patients’ health and should be used with discretion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Since 2007, Guatemala integrated STI clinical service with an HIV prevention model into four existing public health clinics to prevent HIV infection, known as the VICITS strategy. We present the first assessment of VICITS scale-up, retention, HIV and STI prevalence trends, and risk factors associated with HIV infection among Female Sex Workers (FSW) attending VICITS clinics in Guatemala. Methods: Demographic, behavioral and clinical data were collected using a standardized form. Data was analyzed by year and health center. HIV and STI prevalence were estimated from routine visits. Retention was estimated as the percent of new users attending VICITS clinics who returned for at least one follow-up visit to any VICITS clinic within 12 months. Separate multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to investigate factors associated with HIV infection and program retention. Results: During 2007–2011 5,682 FSW visited a VICITS clinic for the first-time. HIV prevalence varied from 0.4% to 5.8%, and chlamydia prevalence from 0% to 14.3%, across sites. Attending the Puerto Barrios clinic, having a current syphilis infection, working primarily on the street, and using the telephone or internet to contact clients were associated with HIV infection. The number of FSW accessing VICITS annually increased from 556 to 2,557 (361%) during the period. In 2011 retention varied across locations from 7.7% to 42.7%. Factors negatively impacting retention included current HIV diagnosis, having practiced sex work in another country, being born in Honduras, and attending Marco Antonio Foundation or Quetzaltenango clinic sites. Systematic time trends did not emerge, however 2008 and 2010 were characterized by reduced retention. Conclusions: Our data show local differences in HIV prevalence and clinic attendance that can be used to prioritize prevention activities targeting FSW in Guatemala. VICITS achieved rapid scale-up; however, a better understanding of the causes of low return rates is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase (TIMP2) is involved in the regulation of matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP2) and shown to implicate in cancer development and progression. The results from the published studies based on the association between TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and cancer risk are inconsistent. In this meta-analysis, we aimed to evaluate the potential association between TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and cancer risk. Methodology: We searched PubMed (Medline) and EMBASE web databases to cover all studies based on relationship of TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and risk of cancer until October 2013. The meta-analysis was performed for selected case-control studies and pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for all genetic models. Results: A total of 2225 cancer cases and 2532 controls were included from ten eligible case-control studies. Results from overall pooled analysis suggested no evidence of significant risk between TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism and cancer risk in any of the genetic models, such as, allele (C vs. G: OR = 1.293, 95% CI = 0.882 to 1.894, p = 0.188), homozygous (CC vs. GG: OR = 0.940, 95% CI = 0.434 to 2.039, p = 0.876), heterozygous (GC vs. GG: OR = 1.397, 95% CI = 0.888 to 2.198, p = 0.148), dominant (CC+GC vs. GG: OR = 1.387, 95% CI = 0.880 to 2.187, p = 0.159) and recessive (CC vs. GG+GC: OR = 0.901, 95% CI = 0.442 to 1.838, p = 0.774) models. No evidence of publication bias was detected during the analysis. Conclusions: The present meta-analysis suggests that the TIMP2 -418 G>C polymorphism may not be involved in predisposing risk factor for cancer in overall population. However, future larger studies with group of populations are needed to analyze the possible correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous results from research on menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and lung cancer survival have been mixed and most have not studied women who used estrogen therapy (ET) exclusively. We examined the associations between MHT use reported at baseline and lung cancer-specific mortality in the prospective California Teachers Study cohort. Among 727 postmenopausal women diagnosed with lung cancer from 1995 through 2007, 441 women died before January 1, 2008. Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) for lung-cancer-specific mortality were obtained by fitting multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models using age in days as the timescale. Among women who used ET exclusively, decreases in lung cancer mortality were observed (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.52–0.93). No association was observed for estrogen plus progestin therapy use. Among former users, shorter duration (<5 years) of exclusive ET use was associated with a decreased risk of lung cancer mortality (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35–0.89), whereas among recent users, longer duration (>15 years) was associated with a decreased risk (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.38–0.95). Smoking status modified the associations with deceases in lung cancer mortality observed only among current smokers. Exclusive ET use was associated with decreased lung cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A comprehensive, HIV prevention programme (Projet Sida1/2/3) was implemented among female sex workers (FSWs) in Cotonou, Benin, in 1993 following which condom use among FSWs increased threefold between 1993 and 2008 while FSW HIV prevalence declined from 53.3% to 30.4%. Objective: Estimate the potential impact of the intervention on HIV prevalence/incidence in FSWs, clients and the general population in Cotonou, Benin. Methods and Findings: A transmission dynamics model parameterised with setting-specific bio-behavioural data was used within a Bayesian framework to fit the model and simulate HIV transmission in the high and low-risk population of Cotonou and to estimate HIV incidence and infections averted by SIDA1/2/3. Our model results suggest that prior to SIDA1/2/3 commercial sex had contributed directly or indirectly to 93% (84–98%) of all cumulative infections and that the observed decline in FSWs HIV prevalence was more consistent with the self-reported post-intervention increase in condom use by FSWs than a counterfactual assuming no change in condom use after 1993 (CF-1). Compared to the counterfactual (CF-1), the increase in condom use may have prevented 62% (52–71%) of new HIV infections among FSWs between 1993 and 2008 and 33% (20–46%) in the overall population. Conclusions: Our analysis provides plausible evidence that the post-intervention increase in condom use during commercial sex significantly reduced HIV prevalence and incidence among FSWs and general population. Sex worker interventions can be effective even in medium HIV prevalence epidemics and need to be sustained over the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obesity and the accompanying increased morbidity and mortality risk is highly prevalent among older adults. As obese elderly might benefit from intentional weight reduction, it is necessary to determine associated and potentially modifiable factors on senior obesity. This cross-sectional study focuses on multi-morbid patients which make up the majority in primary care. It reports on the prevalence of senior obesity and its associations with lifestyle behaviors. Methods: A total of 3,189 non-demented, multi-morbid participants aged 65–85 years were recruited in primary care within the German MultiCare-study. Physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption and quantity and quality of nutritional intake were classified as relevant lifestyle factors. Body Mass Index (BMI, general obesity) and waist circumference (WC, abdominal obesity) were used as outcome measures and regression analyses were conducted. Results: About one third of all patients were classified as obese according to BMI. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 73.5%. Adjusted for socio-demographic variables and objective and subjective disease burden, participants with low physical activity had a 1.6 kg/m2 higher BMI as well as a higher WC (4.9 cm, p<0.001). Current smoking and high alcohol consumption were associated with a lower BMI and WC. In multivariate logistic regression, using elevated WC and BMI as categorical outcomes, the same pattern in lifestyle factors was observed. Only for WC, not current but former smoking was associated with a higher probability for elevated WC. Dietary intake in quantity and quality was not associated with BMI or WC in either model. Conclusions: Further research is needed to clarify if the huge prevalence discrepancy between BMI and WC also reflects a difference in obesity-related morbidity and mortality. Yet, age-specific thresholds for the BMI are needed likewise. Encouraging and promoting physical activity in older adults might a starting point for weight reduction efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Automated dose dispensing (ADD) is being introduced in several countries and the use of this technology is expected to increase as a growing number of elderly people need to manage their medication at home. ADD aims to improve medication safety and treatment adherence, but it may introduce new safety issues. This descriptive study provides insight into the nature and consequences of medication incidents related to ADD, as reported by healthcare professionals in community pharmacies and hospitals. Methods: The medication incidents that were submitted to the Dutch Central Medication incidents Registration (CMR) reporting system were selected and characterized independently by two researchers. Main Outcome Measures: Person discovering the incident, phase of the medication process in which the incident occurred, immediate cause of the incident, nature of incident from the healthcare provider's perspective, nature of incident from the patient's perspective, and consequent harm to the patient caused by the incident. Results: From January 2012 to February 2013 the CMR received 15,113 incidents: 3,685 (24.4%) incidents from community pharmacies and 11,428 (75.6%) incidents from hospitals. Eventually 1 of 50 reported incidents (268/15,113 = 1.8%) were related to ADD; in community pharmacies more incidents (227/3,685 = 6.2%) were related to ADD than in hospitals (41/11,428 = 0.4%). The immediate cause of an incident was often a change in the patient's medicine regimen or relocation. Most reported incidents occurred in two phases: entering the prescription into the pharmacy information system and filling the ADD bag. Conclusion: A proportion of incidents was related to ADD and is reported regularly, especially by community pharmacies. In two phases, entering the prescription into the pharmacy information system and filling the ADD bag, most incidents occurred. A change in the patient's medicine regimen or relocation was the immediate causes of an incident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The World Trade Center (WTC) disaster on September 11, 2001 was an unprecedented traumatic event with long-lasting health consequences among the affected populations in the New York metropolitan area. This meta-analysis aimed to estimate the risk of probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) associated with specific types of WTC exposures. Meta-analytical findings from 10 studies of 3,271 to 20,294 participants yielded 37 relevant associations. The pooled summary odds ratio (OR) was 2.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.82, 2.32), with substantial heterogeneity linked to exposure classification, cohort type, data source, PTSD assessment instrument/criteria, and lapse time since 9/11. In general, responders (e.g. police, firefighters, rescue/recovery workers and volunteers) had a lower probable PTSD risk (OR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.39, 1.87) compared to civilians (e.g. residents, office workers, and passersby; OR = 2.71, 95% CI: 2.35, 3.12). The differences in ORs between responders and civilians were larger for physical compared to psychosocial exposure types. We also found that injury, lost someone, and witnessed horror were the three (out of six) most pernicious exposures. These findings suggest that these three exposures should be a particular focus in psychological evaluation and treatment programs in WTC intervention and future emergency preparedness efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate the records of ambulatory medical care from patients predating the diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) using nationwide, population-based claims data. Methods: The frequencies and costs of ambulatory medical care utilization in 337 newly-diagnosed SLE cases between 2004 and 2010, identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, were compared with 1,348 controls who were frequency matched for sex, age, and the catastrophic illness certificate application year of the cases. Results: Patients with SLE had a median frequency of ambulatory medical care utilization compared with controls one year prior to the index date (22 vs. 2, P<0.001). The differences were significant throughout all eight annual periods. Similarly, the inflation-adjusted costs of ambulatory medical care utilization in patients with SLE increased annually over the study period, from a median of US$18 eight years prior to the index date to US$680 one year prior to the index date. Diseases of the respiratory system (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] codes 460–519), digestive system (ICD-9-CM codes 520–579), musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (ICD-9-CM codes 710–739, excluding 710.0), and skin and subcutaneous tissue (ICD-9-CM codes 680–709) were the top four common causes of visits in the 0.5 to 2 year period preceding the index date and percentages of SLE patients suffered from these disorders increased progressively over the study period. Only 56.4% of the patients with SLE had consulted a rheumatologist and most of the serology tests were done within one year predating the index date. Conclusions: Increased frequencies and costs of ambulatory care utilization among Taiwanese patients with SLE occurred several years predating their definitive SLE diagnosis. When multisystemic disorders are presented in young female patients, the possibility of SLE should be considered and screened with tools such as the antinuclear antibody test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Type 2 diabetes is often accompanied by altered cardiometabolic risk profiles, including abdominal obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia. The association of altered cardiometabolic risk profiles with chronic complications of diabetes is not well investigated. Methods: We recruited 2954 type 2 diabetes patients with a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 who visited the diabetes clinics of 62 hospitals in 21 cities in Guangdong province of China from August 2011 to March 2012. Demographic characteristics, personal and family medical histories, and data on chronic complications of diabetes were collected. Clinical examinations and laboratory assessment were conducted. Results: Abdominal obesity was found in 91.6% of the study population, elevated blood pressure in 78.3%; elevated serum triacylglycerols in 57.8%, and reduced serum HDL-C in 55.9%. Among the cardiometabolic risk factors, elevated blood pressure was significantly associated with almost all the chronic complications of diabetes. After adjusting for age, gender, duration of diabetes, and HbA1c, elevated blood pressure was significantly associated with diabetic retinopathy (OR 1.63, 95% CI: 1.22–2.19), diabetic nephropathy (OR 3.16, 95% CI: 2.25–4.46), cardiovascular disease (OR 2.71, 95% CI: 1.70–4.32), and stroke (OR 1.90, 95% CI: 1.15–3.12). Abdominal adiposity was significantly associated with diabetic nephropathy (OR 1.39, 95% CI: 1.11–1.74). Elevated triacylglycerols was significantly associated with diabetic retinopathy (OR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.05–1.58) and diabetic nephropathy (OR 1.30, 95% CI: 1.05–1.58). Reduced HDL-C was significantly associated with stroke (OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05–1.88). Conclusions: Altered cardiometabolic risk profiles, and elevated blood pressure in particular, were significantly associated with chronic complications in overweight and obese patients with type 2 diabetes. Future studies on the prevention of chronic complications of diabetes might make lowering blood pressure a primary target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An HIV vaccine could substantially impact the epidemic. However, risk compensation (RC), or post-vaccination increase in risk behavior, could present a major challenge. The methodology used in previous studies of risk compensation has been almost exclusively individual-level in focus, and has not explored how increased risk behavior could affect the connectivity of risk networks. This study examined the impact of anticipated HIV vaccine-related RC on the structure of high-risk drug users' sexual and injection risk network. Methods: A sample of 433 rural drug users in the US provided data on their risk relationships (i.e., those involving recent unprotected sex and/or injection equipment sharing). Dyad-specific data were collected on likelihood of increasing/initiating risk behavior if they, their partner, or they and their partner received an HIV vaccine. Using these data and social network analysis, a "post-vaccination network" was constructed and compared to the current network on measures relevant to HIV transmission, including network size, cohesiveness (e.g., diameter, component structure, density), and centrality. Results: Participants reported 488 risk relationships. Few reported an intention to decrease condom use or increase equipment sharing (4% and 1%, respectively). RC intent was reported in 30 existing risk relationships and vaccination was anticipated to elicit the formation of five new relationships. RC resulted in a 5% increase in risk network size (n = 142 to n = 149) and a significant increase in network density. The initiation of risk relationships resulted in the connection of otherwise disconnected network components, with the largest doubling in size from five to ten. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a new methodological approach to studying RC and reveals that behavior change following HIV vaccination could potentially impact risk network connectivity. These data will be valuable in parameterizing future network models that can determine if network-level change precipitated by RC would appreciably impact the vaccine's population-level effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) level has been associated with an increased risk of several chronic diseases. Our aim was to determine lifestyle and clinical factors that are associated with 25OHD level and to investigate connection of 25OHD level with metabolic and cardiovascular disease markers. Design: In total, 2868 Finnish men and women aged 45–74 years participated in FIN-D2D population-based health survey in 2007. Participants that had a serum sample available (98.4%; n = 2822) were included in this study. 25OHD was measured with chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay method. Results: The mean 25OHD level was 58.2 nmol/l in men (n = 1348) and 57.1 nmol/l in women (n = 1474). Mean 25OHD level was lower in the younger age groups than in the older ones (p<0.0001 both in men and women). This study confirmed that low physical activity (p<0.0001 both in men and women), smoking (p = 0.0002 in men and p = 0.03 in women) and high BMI (p<0.0001 in women) are factors that independently associate with low 25OHD level. Of the metabolic and cardiovascular disease markers high triglyceride concentration (p = 0.02 in men and p = 0.001 in women) and high apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio (p = 0.04 in men and p = 0.03 in women) were independently associated with low 25OHD level. Conclusions: Higher age did not predict lower 25OHD level in this study population of aged 45–74 years which may derive from a healthy life-style of “active pensioners”. Low physical activity and smoking came up as independent lifestyle factors associated with low 25OHD level. Defining the molecular mechanisms behind the associations of 25OHD with low physical activity and smoking are important objective in future studies. The association of 25OHD with BMI, high triglyceride concentration and apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 ratio may be related to the role of vitamin D in inflammation, but more detailed studies are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The impact of non-communicable diseases on tuberculosis incidence has received significant attention. It has been suggested that the risk of tuberculosis is higher among subjects with diabetes and these subjects also has poor TB treatment outcomes.This study was aimed at assessing the socio-demographic and clinical factors that may influence different outcome of TB in patients with DM (TB-DM) identified in the Brazilian national database from 2001 to 2011. Methods: TB-DM cases reported in the Brazilian information system were identified and compared.Covariates associated with the outcomes of interest (cure, default, deaths, and development of TB MDR) were included in a hierarchical regression model. Results: TB-DM cases increased from 380/100,000/year in 2001 to 6,150/100,000/year in 2011. Some of the main associations found are pointed. The odds of default was higher among those in the age group 20–39 years (OR = 2.07, 95%CI 1.32–3.24); alcoholics (OR = 2.17, 95%CI 1.86–2.54), and HIV/AIDS (OR = 2.16, 95%CI 1.70–2.74);positive monitoring smear (OR = 1.94, 95%CI 1.55–2.43); prior default (OR = 5.41, 95%CI 4.47–6.54), and unknown type of treatment (OR = 3.33, 95%CI 1.54–7.22). The odds of death was greater for subjects ≥60 years old (OR = 2.74, 95%CI 1.74–4.29); institutionalized in shelter (OR = 2.69, 95%CI 1.07–6.77); alcoholics (OR = 2.70, 95%CI 2.27–3.22); HIV/AIDS (OR = 2.87, 95%CI 2.13–3.86); pulmonary+extrapulmonary TB (OR = 2.49, 95%CI 1.79–3.46); with unknown type of treatment (OR = 14.12, 95%CI 7.04–28.32).Development of MDR TB was more related to relapse (OR = 9.60, 95%CI 6.07–15.14);previous default (OR = 17.13, 95%CI 9.58–30.63); and transfer of treatment center (OR = 7.87, 95%CI 4.74–13.07). Conclusions: Older subjects and those with comorbidities and with a previous treatment of TB had poorest outcomes. TB control program in Brazil will need to expand efforts to focus on treatment of TB-DM patients to improve their cure rates in order to achieve the goals of tuberculosis elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Community pharmacies may potentially assist in screening for chronic conditions such as sleep disorders, which remain both under-diagnosed and untreated. We aimed to compare a subjective risk-assessment-only questionnaire (RAO) for common sleep disorder screening against the same risk-assessment questionnaire plus a nasal flow monitor as an objective marker of possible underlying obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) (RA+) in a community pharmacy setting. The primary outcome was the number of participants identified in RAO or RA+ group who were likely to have and consequently be diagnosed with OSA. Further outcomes included the number of participants identified as being at risk for, referred for, taking-up referral for, and then diagnosed with OSA, insomnia, and/or restless legs syndrome (RLS) in either group. Methods: In a cluster-randomized trial, participants were recruited through 23 community pharmacies. Using validated instruments, 325 (RAO = 152, RA+ = 173) participants were screened for OSA, insomnia, and RLS. Findings: 218 (67%) participants were at risk of OSA, insomnia or RLS and these participants were referred to their primary physician. The proportion of screened participants identified as being at risk of OSA was significantly higher in the RA+ group (36% in RAO vs. 66% in RA+, OR 3.4, 95% CI (1.8–6.5), p<0.001). A 12-month follow-up was completed in 125 RAO and 155 RA+ participants. Actual referral uptake was 34% RAO, 26% RA+, OR 4.4, 95% CI (1.4–19.2), p = 0.31. The OSA diagnosis rate was higher in the RA+ arm (p = 0.01). To yield a single additional confirmed OSA diagnosis, 16 people would need to be screened using the RA+ protocol. Conclusions: These results demonstrate that utilising either screening method is feasible in identifying individuals in the community pharmacy setting who are likely to have OSA, insomnia and/or RLS. Secondly, adding an objective marker of OSA to a questionnaire-based prediction tool resulted in more confirmed OSA diagnoses. Trial Registration: : ACTR.org.au ACTRN12608000628347 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]