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Background: Although a tool for sharing patient prognosis among all medical staff is desirable in heart failure (HF) cases, only a few simple HF prognostic scores are available. We previously presented the A 2 B score, a simple user-friendly HF risk score, and validated it in a small single-center cohort. In the present study, we validated it in a larger nationwide cohort., Methods and Results: We examined the 2-year mortality in relation to the A 2 B scores in 3483 patients from a Japanese nationwide cohort and attempted to stratify their prognoses according to the scores. The A 2 B score was determined by assigning points for age, anemia, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) level at discharge: age (<65 years, 0; 65-74 years, 1; ≥75 years, 2), anemia (hemoglobin ≥12 g/dL, 0; 10-11.9 g/dL, 1; <10 g/dL, 2), and BNP (<200 pg/mL, 0; 200-499 pg/mL, 1; ≥500 pg/mL, 2). Hemoglobin and BNP levels were applied to the data at discharge. The 2-year survival rates for A 2 B scores 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 were 94.1%, 83.2%, 74.1%, 63.5%, 51.6%, and 41.5%, respectively; the mortality rate increased by ≈10% for each point increase (c-index, 0.702). The A 2 B score was applicable in HF cases with reduced or preserved ejection fraction and remained useful when BNP was substituted with N-terminal proBNP (c-index, 0.749, 0.676, and 0.682, respectively)., Conclusions: The A 2 B score showed a good prognostic value for HF in a large population even when BNP was replaced with N-terminal proBNP.

Aims: Heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a complex syndrome with a poor prognosis. Phenotyping is required to identify subtype-dependent treatment strategies. Phenotypes of Japanese HFpEF patients are not fully elucidated, whose obesity is much less than Western patients. This study aimed to reveal model-based phenomapping using unsupervised machine learning (ML) for HFpEF in Japanese patients., Methods and Results: We studied 365 patients with HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction >50%) as a derivation cohort from the Nara Registry and Analyses for Heart Failure (NARA-HF), which registered patients with hospitalization by acute decompensated HF. We used unsupervised ML with a variational Bayesian-Gaussian mixture model (VBGMM) with common clinical variables. We also performed hierarchical clustering on the derivation cohort. We adopted 230 patients in the Japanese Heart Failure Syndrome with Preserved Ejection Fraction Registry as the validation cohort for VBGMM. The primary endpoint was defined as all-cause death and HF readmission within 5 years. Supervised ML was performed on the composite cohort of derivation and validation. The optimal number of clusters was three because of the probable distribution of VBGMM and the minimum Bayesian information criterion, and we stratified HFpEF into three phenogroups. Phenogroup 1 (n = 125) was older (mean age 78.9 ± 9.1 years) and predominantly male (57.6%), with the worst kidney function (mean estimated glomerular filtration rate 28.5 ± 9.7 mL/min/1.73 m 2 ) and a high incidence of atherosclerotic factor. Phenogroup 2 (n = 200) had older individuals (mean age 78.8 ± 9.7 years), the lowest body mass index (BMI; 22.78 ± 3.94), and the highest incidence of women (57.5%) and atrial fibrillation (56.5%). Phenogroup 3 (n = 40) was the youngest (mean age 63.5 ± 11.2) and predominantly male (63.5 ± 11.2), with the highest BMI (27.46 ± 5.85) and a high incidence of left ventricular hypertrophy. We characterized these three phenogroups as atherosclerosis and chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, and younger and left ventricular hypertrophy groups, respectively. At the primary endpoint, Phenogroup 1 demonstrated the worst prognosis (Phenogroups 1-3: 72.0% vs. 58.5% vs. 45%, P = 0.0036). We also successfully classified a derivation cohort into three similar phenogroups using VBGMM. Hierarchical and supervised clustering successfully showed the reproducibility of the three phenogroups., Conclusions: ML could successfully stratify Japanese HFpEF patients into three phenogroups (atherosclerosis and chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, and younger and left ventricular hypertrophy groups)., (© 2023 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)