1. Novel Model to Predict Gastrointestinal Bleeding During Left Ventricular Assist Device Support.
- Author
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Yin MY, Ruckel S, Kfoury AG, McKellar SH, Taleb I, Gilbert EM, Nativi-Nicolau J, Stehlik J, Reid BB, Koliopoulou A, Stoddard GJ, Fang JC, Drakos SG, Selzman CH, and Wever-Pinzon O
- Subjects
- Aged, Anticoagulants therapeutic use, Female, Heart Transplantation methods, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Risk Assessment, Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage physiopathology, Heart Failure physiopathology, Heart-Assist Devices, Ventricular Dysfunction, Right physiopathology
- Abstract
Background: Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a leading cause of morbidity during continuous-flow left ventricular assist device (CF-LVAD) support. GIB risk assessment could have important implications for candidate selection, informed consent, and postimplant therapeutic strategies. The aim of the study is to derive and validate a predictive model of GIB in CF-LVAD patients., Methods and Results: CF-LVAD recipients at the Utah Transplantation Affiliated Hospitals program between 2004 and 2017 were included. GIB associated with a decrease in hemoglobin ≥2 g/dL was the primary end point. A weighted score comprising preimplant variables independently associated with GIB was derived and internally validated. A total of 351 patients (median age, 59 years; 82% male) were included. After a median of 196 days, GIB occurred in 120 (34%) patients. Independent predictors of GIB included age >54 years, history of previous bleeding, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, severe right ventricular dysfunction, mean pulmonary artery pressure <18 mm Hg, and fasting glucose >107 mg/dL. A weighted score termed Utah bleeding risk score, effectively stratified patients based on their probability of GIB: low (0-1 points) 4.8%, intermediate (2-4) 39.8%, and high risk (5-9) 83.8%. Discrimination was good in the development sample (c-index: 0.83) and after internal bootstrap validation (c-index: 0.74)., Conclusions: The novel Utah bleeding risk score is a simple tool that can provide personalized GIB risk estimates in CF-LVAD patients. This scoring system may assist clinicians and investigators in designing tailored risk-based strategies aimed at reducing the burden posed by GIB in the individual CF-LVAD patient and healthcare systems.
- Published
- 2018
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