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Background: High hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) level predicts hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with low viral load. The role of longitudinal HBsAg levels in predicting HCC in HBeAg-positive CHB patients remains unknown., Method: HBeAg-positive CHB participants from the REVEAL-HBV cohort with ≥2 HBsAg measurements before HBeAg seroclearance were enrolled. Group-based trajectory modelling identified distinct HBsAg trajectory groups during a median of 11 years of HBeAg-positive status. Cox regression models were applied for investigating independent predictors of HCC and estimating adjusted hazard ratio (HR adj ) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant., Results: A total of 319 patients were enrolled and classified by HBsAg trajectory patterns as (A) persistently high group (n = 72): HBsAg persistently ≥10 4  IU/mL, and (B) non-stationary group (n = 233): low HBsAg at baseline or declining to <10 4  IU/mL during the follow-up. Group B had higher proportions of abnormal ALT levels, HBV genotype C and basal core mutation than group A (p < 0.05); age at entry and gender were comparable. The annual incidence of HCC in group A and group B were 0.37% and 1.16%, respectively (p = 0.03). In multivariate analysis, age >40 years (HR adj [95% CI] = 4.11 [2.26-7.48]), genotype C (HR adj [95% CI] = 4.39 [1.96-9.81]) and the non-stationary group (HR adj [95% CI] = 3.50 [1.49-8.21]) were independent predictors of HCC. Basal core promoter mutation was the only risk factor of HCC in the persistently high HBsAg group (HR adj [95% CI] = 32.75 [5.41-198.42])., Conclusion: Patients with persistently high HBsAg levels during HBeAg-seropositive stage represent a unique population with low risk of HCC development., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) clearance leads to favorable outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis B. HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL with HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year have been reportedly predictive of HBsAg loss. This study aimed to use the REVEAL-hepatitis B virus cohort to validate and simplify this prediction rule and verify whether the simplified algorithm can be used among various clinical subgroups., Method: We analyzed 707 patients with untreated chronic hepatitis B who had 3 or more HBsAg measurements within 5 years before HBsAg seroclearance or last visit, greater than 1 year apart from one another. Rapid HBsAg decline was defined as HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL in 1 year or >1 log 10 IU/mL in 2 years. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, and negative predictive values were compared to assess the predictability of HBsAg seroclearance., Results: During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, 41 of the 707 patients cleared serum HBsAg. HBsAg levels at all measurements were lower ( P < 0.0001) and HBsAg decline was greater ( P < 0.0001) in patients with seroclearance compared with non-seroclearance patients. The predictive accuracy of predicting 1-year HBsAg loss using only the rapid decline algorithm (sensitivity = 0.4412, specificity = 0.9792, positive predictive value = 0.5172, negative predictive value = 0.972) was the same as the model combining rapid HBsAg decline and HBsAg levels <200 IU/mL. The simplified algorithm including only the rapid decline performed similarly among various levels of HBsAg, hepatitis B virus DNA, and alanine aminotransferase and was independent of inactive carrier state., Discussion: HBsAg decline >0.5 log 10 IU/mL/yr was a practical predictor of HBsAg seroclearance within 1 year in our community-based untreated cohort., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of The American College of Gastroenterology.)

Background and Aims: Most studies on risk predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients do not confirm the date at cirrhosis diagnosis. We examined HCC risk and predictors in chronic hepatitis B patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis., Methods: 4155 HBsAg seropositive participants were followed every 6-12 months with seromarker testing. Cirrhosis was ascertained through abdominal ultrasonography and computerized linkage with national health insurance profiles. Predictors included in Cox proportional hazards models were age, HBeAg serostatus, serum levels of HBsAg, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and ALDH2 rs671 genotypes., Results: A total of 301 patients developed cirrhosis, 76 of whom later developed HCC after 2462 person-years, showing an average annual incidence of 3.1%. The 15-year cumulative HCC risk among cirrhotics was 39.8% with a lifetime (30-80 years old) HCC risk of 78.5%. The adjusted HR's (95% CI, P-value) were 14.26 (3.17-64.08, P = 0.0005) for age at cirrhosis diagnosis of ≥60 years (vs 30-39 years), 2.85 (1.49-5.46, P = 0.0015) for HBeAg seropositivity (vs HBeAg seronegativity with HBsAg levels <1000 IU/mL), 0.35 (0.20-0.59, P < 0.0001) for AA/AG genotypes of rs671 (vs GG genotype), 3.68 (1.70-7.99, P = 0.0010) for ALT levels >45 U/L (vs <15 U/L), 3.52 (1.78-6.93, P = 0.0003) for AFP levels >20 ng/mL (vs <10 ng/mL), and 2.64 (1.38-5.07, P = 0.0035) for HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/mL (vs <1000 IU/mL among HBeAg seronegatives)., Conclusions: Older age, GG genotype of ALDH2 rs671, HBeAg seropositivity, and elevated serum levels of ALT, AFP, and HBsAg at cirrhosis diagnosis were HCC risk predictors in cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients., (© 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

Unlabelled: Serum levels of hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA (≤2000 IU/mL) and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (<1000 IU/mL) have been shown to distinguish inactive carriers with high accuracy. The goal of this study was to validate the predictability of one-time measurement of quantitative HBsAg and HBV DNA levels for inactive carrier status and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) progression in a community-based cohort. This study included 1529 participants chronically infected with HBV genotype B or C from the REVEAL-HBV cohort. They were ascertained as inactive or active CHB after 18 months of follow-up. Validity of the one-time measurement was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic curves, while associations with clinical outcomes were calculated with Cox proportional hazards regressions. The one-time baseline measurement of HBsAg <1000 IU/mL and HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL distinguished inactive carriers from active CHB with a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy of 71%, 85%, 83%, 74%, and 78%, respectively. Those identified as inactive carriers using the one-time baseline measurement had multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of 0.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.63) and 0.36 (0.23-0.56) for hepatocellular carcinoma and liver cirrhosis, respectively, and an adjusted rate ratio of 6.97 (95% CI, 5.21-9.33) for HBsAg seroclearance. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting these outcomes using the one-time definition were similar to those obtained when using long-term follow-up defined carrier status for prediction., Conclusion: This study confirms the predictability of a one-time combined HBsAg and HBV DNA measurement for future inactive carriers. This single-point strategy provides new and complementary information useful for management of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection. (Hepatology 2016;64:381-389)., (© 2016 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background & Aims: Tests for hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA are expensive, and levels of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) can help determine the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic HBV infection. We investigated how adding data to knowing the level of HBsAg or excluding measurement of HBV DNA affected the accuracy of the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) scoring system in determining the risk for HCC., Methods: We collected data from 3584 patients with chronic HBV infection who were positive for HBsAg, free of cirrhosis, and participated in the community-based Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV cohort (208 cases of HCC) from 1991 through 1992; they were followed up until December 31, 2008. Data from this cohort were used to derive our scoring system. We validated our system using data from 2688 HBsAg-seropositive patients (191 cases of HCC) who participated in the hospital-based Elucidation of Risk Factors for Disease Control or Advancement in Taiwanese Hepatitis B Carriers (ERADICATE-B) study at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1985 through 2000; they were followed up until December 31, 2010. We also validated the system using data from 426 patients with chronic HBV infection who participated in the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) study (46 cases of HCC) from 1997 through 2000; patients were followed up for a median of 225 weeks. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and calibration charts., Results: When data on HBsAg were added to the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B study who developed HCC within 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-1.02), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.86), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84), respectively. It identified patients in the CUHK study who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.75-0.95), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.70-0.93), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.870), respectively. When data on HBV DNA were removed from the REACH-B scoring system, it identified patients in the ERADICATE-B cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.81-1.0), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.68-0.85), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.82), respectively. It identified patents in the CUHK cohort who developed HCC in 3, 5, and 10 years, with AUROC curve values of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.92), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.87). These modified systems identified patients who developed HCC with similar levels of accuracy as the original REACH-B score (P > .05 in tests of noninferiority)., Conclusions: Including data on serum level of HBsAg or removing data on level of HBV DNA do not alter the accuracy of the REACH-B scoring system in determining HCC risk in patients with chronic HBV infection without cirrhosis. It might be cost effective to replace the test for HBV DNA with assays to measure HBsAg in determining HCC risk. These modified scoring systems might replace the REACH-B system in specific situations., (Copyright © 2016 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance is the ultimate serological end point in chronic hepatitis B. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction score for spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance in HBV e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with chronic hepatitis B due to HBV genotype B or C., Methods: The development cohort included 2491 untreated participants from the community-based REVEAL-HBV study, who were HBeAg negative, anti-hepatitis C virus negative, and cirrhosis free. The independent validation cohort consisted of 1934 hospital-based individuals from the National Taiwan University Hospital. Clinical markers included in the model were age and serum HBV DNA and HBsAg levels. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create the prediction model., Results: A prediction score ranging from 0 to 27 was developed. Predicted probabilities of 5- and 10-year HBsAg seroclearance ranged from 0.95% to 30.49% and from 2.58% to 62.52%, respectively. When applied to the independent validation cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the 5- and 10-year prediction of HBsAg seroclearance in the validation cohort were 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], .76-.88) and 0.74 (95% CI, .70-.78). Model fit was still adequate, according to Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests., Conclusions: A clinically applicable prediction score for HBsAg seroclearance was developed and externally validated. This model can assist clinicians in further stratifying risk groups., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Unlabelled: Spontaneous seroclearance of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA undetectability are important milestones of chronic hepatitis B and major treatment endpoints of antiviral therapy. This study investigated the role of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels and established models for predicting HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. A total of 2,139 HBsAg-seropositive, anti-HCV-seronegative, and treatment-naïve participants without liver cirrhosis at study entry were included. Spontaneous HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were analyzed in 431 HBeAg-seropositive participants and 1,708 HBeAg-seronegative participants, respectively. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox proportional hazard models were converted into integer scores for predicting seroclearance and predictive accuracy was assessed with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The HBV DNA level was the most important predictor of HBeAg seroclearance but serum HBsAg level was the most significant predictor of HBV DNA undetectability. Compared to individuals with HBsAg levels ≥ 10,000 IU/mL, the multivariate-adjusted rate ratio (95% confidence interval) of HBV DNA undetectability was 1.20 (0.62-2.30), 2.49 (1.31-4.75), and 6.08 (3.19-11.61) for those with serum HBsAg levels of 1,000-9,999, 100-999, and <100 IU/mL, respectively. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the prediction models for predicting the 5- and 10-year probabilities of HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability were 0.85 (0.80-0.90) and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) for HBeAg seroclearance, and 0.77 (0.72-0.82) and 0.73 (0.70-0.76) for HBV DNA undetectability., Conclusion: Prediction models incorporating important host and virus factors can predict HBeAg seroclearance and HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels rather than HBV DNA is the most important predictor of spontaneous HBV DNA undetectability. Serum HBsAg levels should be monitored in the management of patients with HBeAg-seronegative chronic hepatitis B., (© 2014 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Unlabelled: Integrating host and HBV characteristics, this study aimed to develop models for predicting long-term cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) patients. This analysis included hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-seropositive and anti-HCV-seronegative participants from the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer in HBV (R.E.V.E.A.L.-HBV) cohort. Newly developed cirrhosis and HCC were ascertained through regular follow-up ultrasonography, computerized linkage with national health databases, and medical chart reviews. Two-thirds of the participants were allocated for risk model derivation and another one-third for model validation. The risk prediction model included age, gender, HBV e antigen (HBeAg) serostatus, serum levels of HBV DNA, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), quantitative serum HBsAg levels, and HBV genotypes. Additionally, the family history was included in the prediction model for HCC. Cox's proportional hazards regression coefficients for cirrhosis and HCC predictors were converted into risk scores. The areas under receiver operating curve (AUROCs) were used to evaluate the performance of risk models. Elder age, male, HBeAg, genotype C, and increasing levels of ALT, HBV DNA, and HBsAg were all significantly associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and HCC. The risk scores estimated from the derivation set could accurately categorize participants with low, medium, and high cirrhosis and HCC risk in the validation set (P<0.001). The AUROCs for predicting 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year cirrhosis risk ranged 0.83-0.86 and 0.79-0.82 for the derivation and validation sets, respectively. The AUROC for predicting 5-year, 10-year, 15-year risk of HCC ranged 0.86-0.89 and 0.84-0.87 in the derivation and validation sets, respectively., Conclusion: The risk prediction models of cirrhosis and HCC by integrating host and HBV profiles have excellent prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability. They may be used for clinical management of chronic hepatitis B patients., (Copyright © 2013 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background & Aims: Seroclearance of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) is the most ideal end point in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. This study develops a predictive scoring system to assess whether the addition of serum levels HBsAg may improve the predictability of HBsAg loss., Methods: This study included 2491 untreated participants with genotype B or C HBV infection, who were HBsAg-seropositive, HBeAg-seronegative, anti-HCV-seronegative, and cirrhosis free at study entry. Regression coefficients of predictors in Cox Regression models were converted into integer scores for predicting HBsAg seroclearance. Predictive accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), and predictive accuracies of models with and without serum HBsAg levels were compared., Results: Low serum levels of both HBsAg and HBV DNA were the strongest predictors of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance. Compared to baseline serum HBsAg levels ≥1000 IU/ml, the multivariate adjusted rate ratio of spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance was 10.96 (7.92-15.16) for those with baseline serum HBsAg levels <100 IU/ml. The predictive ability of HBsAg levels was modified by HBV viral load, showing a weaker effect in those with higher viral loads, and the strongest effect among those with undetectable viral loads. The inclusion of serum HBsAg levels greatly improved the AUROC for predicting HBsAg seroclearance at the fifth (from 0.79 [0.787-0.792] to 0.89 [0.889-0.891]) and tenth year (from 0.73 [0.728-0.732] to 0.84 [0.839-0.841]) after study entry., Conclusions: Incorporated into an easy-to-use scoring system, HBV viral load and quantitative serum HBsAg levels can accurately predict HBsAg seroclearance., (Copyright © 2013 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)