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This paper discusses a number of probability models for multiple transmission line outages in power systems, including generalized Poisson model, negative binomial model, and exponentially, accelerated model. These models are applied to the multiple transmission outage data for a 20-year period for North America. The probabilities of the propagation of transmission cascading outage are calculated. These probability magnitudes can serve as indexes for long-term planning and can also be used in short-term operational defense to such events. Results from our research show that all three models apparently explain the occurrence probability of higher order outages very well. However, the exponentially accelerated model fits the observed data and predicts the acceleration trends best. Strict chi-squared fitness tests were done to compare the fitness among these three models, and the test results are consistent with what we observe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is impractical to analyze all of the possible contingencies in a large-scale interconnected power network. Therefore, a standard approach is to analyze only a subset of the contingencies. The normal method of selecting this subset is via use of the so-called N -1 rule. This paper goes a step further by proposing a new method of forming a contingency list, based on substation configuration obtained from topology processing data and probability analysis of protection system failures. This method is particularly suited for online security assessment. Protection system failures assessed include stuck breakers and failure to operate. The method is described via application to a single substation, verified using the IEEE-RTS96, and illustrated using topology data from a large utilities EMS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]