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Background: Hip fracture is a common osteoporotic fracture with great morbidity and mortality. The utility of ASA classification is limited, as most patients are ≥ASA 3. A reliable predictor of mortality risk could support decision-making. We aimed to evaluate Nottingham hip fracture score (NHFS) for the prediction of 30-day mortality and then to recalibrate the formula converting NHFS to risk of 30-day mortality.Methods: All patients >60 years with surgically treated hip fracture surgery during 2015-16 were assessed. Data was extracted manually from routinely collected clinical data in registry and medical records. Discriminative performance of NHFS and ASA was assessed with C-statistics. The conversion formula from NHFS to risk of 30-day mortality was recalibrated using logistic binominal regression. Observed vs expected ratios of 30-day mortality were compared with the 2012 NHFS-formula and recalibration was performed in a split dataset.Results: 1864 patients were included, with 213 deaths within 30 days. C-statistic were 0.64 for NHFS and 0.62 for ASA. Comparing expected values from the 2012-revision with our observed deaths gave a ratio of 1.37. Relating predicted levels of 30-day mortality based on 70% of our cohort vs. 30% test portion of our Swedish dataset gave a ratio of 0.97.Discussion: NHFS underestimated mortality in our cohort and showed poor discrimination. Revision of the formula based on a split dataset improved calibration. We suggest NHFS to be routinely implemented to support clinical judgements, expand preoperative assessment and escalate intraoperative monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The effect of time-to-surgery on mortality in acute hip fracture (AHF) patients has been debated and studies are inconsistent regarding from what time limit mortality starts to increase. At Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Mölndal, surgery is recommended within 24 hours leaving little time for pre-operative optimization. However, internationally the definition of early surgery varies between 24 and 48 hours and over. This retrospective study was initiated to investigate the relation between time-to-surgery and 30-day mortality.Method: Data of AHF patients from January 2007 through December 2016 were collected. The variables analysed were: age, gender, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, surgical method (prosthesis or osteosynthesis) and time-to-surgery, along with 30-day mortality. Primary outcome was 30-day mortality related to time-to-surgery divided into groups. Secondary outcome was 30-day mortality related to time-to-surgery analysed hour-by-hour.Results: From 10,844 eligible patients, 9,270 patients were included into the study. Mean time-to-surgery was 19.4 hours and overall 30-day mortality was 7.6%. Adjusted Cox regression analysis revealed an increased mortality rate in patients with time-to-surgery >48 hours. In the hour-by-hour analysis, significant mortality increase was observed at 39 hours of time-to-surgery. Patients with time-to-surgery >24 hours did not have increased mortality compared to patients with time-to-surgery <24 hours.Conclusion: In AHF patients, a time-to-surgery exceeding 39-48 hours was associated with increased mortality. Patients with surgeries performed before 39-48 hours did not have increased mortality and this time may, in some patients, be used for optimization prior surgery even if time-to-surgery exceeds 24 hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]