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Background: Weight gain effects of individual antiretroviral drugs are not fully understood. We investigated associations between a prespecified clinically significant increase (>7%) in body-mass index (BMI) and contemporary antiretroviral use., Methods: The International Cohort Consortium of Infectious Diseases (RESPOND) is a prospective, multicohort collaboration, including data from 17 well established cohorts and over 29 000 people living with HIV. People with HIV under prospective follow-up from Jan 1, 2012, and older than 18 years were eligible for inclusion. Each cohort contributed a predefined minimum number of participants related to the size of the specific cohort (with a minimum of 1000 participants). Participants were required to have CD4 cell counts and HIV viral load measurement in the 12 months before or within 3 months after baseline. For all antiretroviral drugs received at or after RESPOND entry, changes from pre-antiretroviral BMI levels (baseline) were considered at each BMI measurement during antiretroviral treatment. We used logistic regression to identify individual antiretrovirals that were associated with first occurrence of a more than 7% increase in BMI from pre-antiretroviral BMI. We adjusted analyses for time on antiretrovirals, pre-antiretroviral BMI, demographics, geographical region, CD4 cell count, viral load, smoking status, and AIDS at baseline., Results: 14 703 people were included in this study, of whom 7863 (53·5%) had a more than 7% increase in BMI. Compared with lamivudine, use of dolutegravir (odds ratio [OR] 1·27, 95% CI 1·17-1·38), raltegravir (1·37, 1·20-1·56), and tenofovir alafenamide (1·38, 1·22-1·35) was significantly associated with a more than 7% BMI increase, as was low pre-antiretroviral BMI (2·10, 1·91-2·31 for underweight vs healthy weight) and Black ethnicity (1·61, 1·47-1·76 vs White ethnicity). Higher CD4 count was associated with a reduced risk of BMI increase (0·97, 0·96-0·98 per 100 cells per μL increase). Relative to lamivudine, dolutegravir without tenofovir alafenamide (OR 1·21, 95% CI 1·19-1·32) and tenofovir alafenamide without dolutegravir (1·33, 1·15-1·53) remained independently associated with a more than 7% increase in BMI; the associations were higher when dolutegravir and tenofovir alafenamide were used concomitantly (1·79, 1·52-2·11, and 1·70, 1·44-2·01, respectively)., Interpretation: Clinicians and people with HIV should be aware of associations between weight gain and use of dolutegravir, tenofovir alafenamide, and raltegravir, particularly given the potential consequences of weight gain, such as insulin resistance, dyslipidaemia, and hypertension., Funding: The CHU St Pierre Brussels HIV Cohort, The Austrian HIV Cohort Study, The Australian HIV Observational Database, The AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands national observational HIV cohort, The EuroSIDA cohort, The Frankfurt HIV Cohort Study, The Georgian National AIDS Health Information System, The Nice HIV Cohort, The ICONA Foundation, The Modena HIV Cohort, The PISCIS Cohort Study, The Swiss HIV Cohort Study, The Swedish InfCare HIV Cohort, The Royal Free HIV Cohort Study, The San Raffaele Scientific Institute, The University Hospital Bonn HIV Cohort and The University of Cologne HIV Cohorts, ViiV Healthcare, and Gilead Sciences., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JMM received a personal 80:20 research grant from Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain, during 2017–21. JMM also reports grants and personal fees from AbbVie, Angelini, Contrafect, Cubist, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Jansen, Lysovant, Medtronic, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work. DLB reports honoraria from ViiV Healthcare, Gilead Sciences, and Merck, outside the submitted work. OK reports personal fees from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, and Merck, outside the submitted work. ML reports grants from Gilead Sciences, Janssen-Cilag, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work. JH reports reimbursement to their institute from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, and MSD, outside the submitted work. HFG reports grants from the Swiss National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, unrestricted research grants from Gilead Sciences, Roche, and Yvonne Jacob Foundation, personal fees from consulting or advisory boards or data safety monitoring boards for Merck, Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, Mepha, and Sandoz. HFG's institution received money for participation in the following clinical COVID-19 studies: 540-7773/5774 (Gilead), TICO (ACTIV-3, INSIGHT/NIH), and the Morningsky study (Roche). CSt reports personal fees and non-financial support from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, and Janssen, outside the submitted work. VV is a salaried employee of ViiV Healthcare and receives GlaxoSmithKline stock. CD reports grants and personal fees from MSD, Gilead Sciences, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work. SDW reports grants from Gilead Sciences, MSD, Janssen, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work. FW reports membership of advisory boards for ViiV Healthcare and Gilead Sciences. JL reports personal fees from ViiV Healthcare, Gilead Sciences, and Janssen Cilag, outside the submitted work. CSm reports personal fees from Gilead Sciences, outside the submitted work. AdM reports grants from Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare, during the conduct of the study, and personal fees from ViiV Healthcare, Gilead Sciences, Eiland, and Bonnin, outside the submitted work. NC reports personal fees from Virology Education, outside the submitted work. CO reports personal fees from ViiV Healthcare, Neola, and MSD, outside the submitted work. CO is also an elected member of the European AIDS Society governing body and of the EuroSIDA Steering Committee. JJV reports personal fees from MSD, Gilead Sciences, Pfizer, Astellas Pharma, Basilea, German Centre for Infection Research, University Hospital Freiburg, Congress and Communication, Academy for Infectious Medicine, University of Manchester, German Society for Infectious Diseases, Arztekammer Nordrhein, University Hospital Aachen, Back Bay Strategies, German Society for Internal Medicine, Shionogi, Molecular Health, Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin, Janssen, and NordForsk, and grants from MSD, Gilead Sciences, Pfizer, Astellas Pharma, Basilea, German Centre for Infection Research, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, University of Bristol, and Rigshospitalet Copenhagen. JG is a paid employee of Gilead Sciences. ND reports he is a board member of non-governmental associations and initiatives (not for profit) that receive financial support from pharmaceutical companies and foundations for various projects. Those that have contributed are: GlaxoSmithKline, ViiV Healthcare, AbbVie, BMS, Gilead, Janssen-Cilag, MSD, AIDS Healthcare Foundation, Positive Action, Novartis, Roche, Mylam ELPEN, Cepheid, IPSEN, AstraZeneca, Amgen, Bayer, Pamaserve-Lilly, Roche Diagnostics, Sanofi, Pfizer, Theratechnologies, Vianex, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Chiesi, Takeda, and Leo Pharma. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: To analyse the effect of drug resistance mutations (DRM) on CD4 + T-cell (CD4) trends in HIV-positive people maintained on virologically failing antiretroviral therapy (ART)., Methods: Individuals from two large cohorts experiencing virological failure (VF) while maintained on ART with ≥1 CD4 count and ≥1 resistance test were included. CD4 slopes were estimated using linear mixed models. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to assess the effect of clusters of mutations, defined using extracted component based scores from the PCA, on CD4 decline., Results: 5,357 individuals contributing 7,661 VF episodes were included: any DRM were detected in 88.8% of episodes. After adjustment, CD4 counts declined less steeply during episodes where DRM were detected compared to episodes with no DRM (difference =28 cells/mm 3 /year, 95% CI =18, 39; P<0.001). Among individuals with at least one DRM, we found evidence that any nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) resistance, the reverse transcriptase (RT) mutations M184V, D67N and T215Y as well as the protease mutations V82A and I54V were associated with reduced CD4 declines. The detection of any non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance, the RT mutations V179D and L74V were associated with steeper CD4 declines. The presence of some mutation patterns similar to the clusters identified by the PCA also affected the CD4 decline., Conclusions: Detection of resistance and of certain DRM during VF of ART has a small but significant favourable effect on CD4 decline.

Background: The goal of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is to reduce HIV-related morbidity and mortality by suppressing HIV replication. The prognostic value of persistent low-level viremia (LLV), particularly for clinical outcomes, is unknown., Objective: Assess the association of different levels of LLV with virological failure, AIDS event, and death among HIV-infected patients receiving combination ART., Methods: We analyzed data from 18 cohorts in Europe and North America, contributing to the ART Cohort Collaboration. Eligible patients achieved viral load below 50  copies/ml within 3-9 months after ART initiation. LLV50-199 was defined as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 199  copies/ml and LLV200-499 as two consecutive viral loads between 50 and 499  copies/ml, with at least one between 200 and 499  copies/ml. We used Cox models to estimate the association of LLV with virological failure (two consecutive viral loads at least 500  copies/ml or one viral load at least 500 copies/ml, followed by a modification of ART) and AIDS event/death., Results: Among 17 902 patients, 624 (3.5%) experienced LLV50-199 and 482 (2.7%) LLV200-499. Median follow-up was 2.3 and 3.1 years for virological and clinical outcomes, respectively. There were 1903 virological failure, 532 AIDS events and 480 deaths. LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-5.17]. LLV50-199 was weakly associated with virological failure (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 0.96-2.00). LLV50-199 and LLV200-499 were not associated with AIDS event/death (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 0.81-1.68; and aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.62-1.48, [corrected] respectively)., Conclusion: LLV200-499 was strongly associated with virological failure, but not with AIDS event/death. Our results support the US guidelines, which define virological failure as a confirmed viral load above 200  copies/ml.

Background: The impact of immunosuppression despite virological suppression (immuno-virological discordance, ID) on the risk of developing fatal and non-fatal AIDS/non-AIDS events is unclear and remains to be elucidated., Methods: Patients in EuroSIDA starting at least 1 new antiretroviral drug with CD4<350 cells/µl and viral load (VL)>500 copies/mL were followed-up from the first day of VL< = 50 copies/ml until a new fatal/non-fatal non-AIDS/AIDS event. Considered non-AIDS events included non-AIDS malignancies, pancreatitis, severe liver disease with hepatic encephalopathy (>grade 3), cardio- and cerebrovascular events, and end-stage renal disease. Patients were classified over time according to whether current CD4 count was above (non-ID) or below (ID) baseline level. Relative rates (RR) of events were calculated for ID vs. non-ID using adjusted Poisson regression models., Results: 2,913 patients contributed 11,491 person-years for the analysis of non-AIDS. 241 pre-specified non-AIDS events (including 84 deaths) and 89 AIDS events (including 10 deaths) occurred. The RR of developing pre-specified non-AIDS events for ID vs. non-ID was 1.96 (95% CI 1.37-2.81, p<0.001) in unadjusted analysis and 1.43 (0.94-2.17, p = 0.095) after controlling for current CD4 count. ID was not associated with the risk of AIDS events (aRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.41-1.38, p = 0.361)., Conclusion: Compared to CD4 responders, patients with immuno-virological discordance may be at increased risk of developing non-AIDS events. Further studies are warranted to establish whether in patients with ID, strategies to directly modify CD4 count response may be needed besides the use of ART.

Background: Despite the known substantial benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), cumulative adverse effects could still limit the overall long-term treatment benefit. Therefore we investigated changes in the rate of death with increasing exposure to cART., Methods: A total of 12 069 patients were followed from baseline, which was defined as the time of starting cART or enrolment into EuroSIDA whichever occurred later, until death or 6 months after last follow-up visit. Incidence rates of death were calculated per 1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) and stratified by time of exposure to cART (≥3 antiretrovirals): less than 2, 2-3.99, 4-5.99, 6-7.99 and more than 8 years. Duration of cART exposure was the cumulative time actually receiving cART. Poisson regression models were fitted for each cause of death separately., Results: A total of 1297 patients died during 70,613 PYFU [incidence rate 18.3 per 1000 PYFU, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.4-19.4], 413 due to AIDS (5.85, 95% CI 5.28-6.41) and 884 due to non-AIDS-related cause (12.5, 95% CI 11.7-13.3). After adjustment for confounding variables, including baseline CD4 cell count and HIV RNA, there was a significant decrease in the rate of all-cause and AIDS-related death between 2 and 3.99 years and longer exposure time. In the first 2 years on cART the risk of non-AIDS death was significantly lower, but no significant difference in the rate of non-AIDS-related deaths between 2 and 3.99 years and longer exposure to cART was observed., Conclusion: In conclusion, we found no evidence of an increased risk of both all-cause and non-AIDS-related deaths with long-term cumulative cART exposure.

The objective of our study was to investigate factors associated with virological failure in 100 consecutive HIV-1 infected Vietnamese adults who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) from June 2007 to June 2008. Data were collected from medical records, and a structured questionnaire was used in individual interviews to investigate factors associated with adherence to ART. Plasma HIV viral load was measured at the time of the interview. The median age was 35 years, 35% were women and heterosexual intercourse was the most common mode of HIV transmission (61%). After a median of 14 months since starting ART, 23% had detectable HIV-1 viral load (≥ 400 copies/mL). Patients who had developed a World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage 4 condition at the time of initiation of ART were more likely to experience virological failure than those in stages 1-3, odds ratio (OR): 5.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.34-20.11), P = 0.017. Patients who reported that their health status was evaluated by a physician at each visit were less likely to experience virological failure, OR: 0.02 (95% CI 0.00-0.24), P = 0.002.

Objectives: To explore the relationship between elevated triglyceride levels and the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in HIV-positive persons after adjustment for total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) and nonlipid risk factors., Background: Although elevated triglyceride levels are commonly noted in HIV-positive individuals, it is unclear whether they represent an independent risk factor for MI., Methods: The incidence of MI during follow-up was stratified according to the latest triglyceride level. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to describe the independent association between the latest triglyceride level and MI risk after adjusting for TC and HDL-C, nonlipids cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, HIV and treatment-related factors., Results: The 33,308 persons included in the study from 1999 to 2008 experienced 580 MIs over 178,835 person-years. Unadjusted, the risk of MI increased by 67% [relative risk (RR) 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.54-1.80] per doubling in triglyceride level. After adjustment for the latest TC and HDL-C level, the RR dropped to 1.33 (95% confidence interval 1.21-1.45); this effect was further attenuated by other CVD risk factors and the RR was reduced to 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.06-1.29). In models that additionally adjusted for HIV and treatment factors, the risk was further diminished, although remained significant (RR 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.23)., Conclusion: Higher triglyceride levels were marginally independently associated with an increased risk of MI in HIV-positive persons, although the extent of reduction in RR after taking account of latest TC, latest HDL-C and other confounders suggests that any independent effect is small.

Objectives: Analyzing changes in causes of death over time is essential for understanding the emerging trends in HIV population mortality, yet data on cause of death are often missing. This poses analytic limitations, as does the changing approach in data collection by longitudinal studies, which are a natural consequence of an increased awareness and knowledge in the field. To monitor and analyze changes in mortality over time, we have explored this issue within the EuroSIDA study and propose a standardized protocol unifying data collected and allowing for classification of all deaths as AIDS or non-AIDS related, including events with missing cause of death., Methods: Several classifications of the underlying cause of death as AIDS or non-AIDS related within the EuroSIDA study were compared: central classification (CC-reference group) based on an externally standardised method (the CoDe procedures), local cohort classification (LCC) as reported by the site investigator, and 4 algorithms (ALG) created based on survival times after specific AIDS events., Results: A total of 2,783 deaths occurred, 540 CoDe forms were collected, and 488 were used to evaluate agreements. The agreement between CC and LCC was substantial (κ = 0.7) and the agreement between CC and ALG was moderate (κ < 0.6). Consequently, a stepwise algorithm was derived prioritizing CC over LCC and, in patients with no information available, best-fit ALG. Using this algorithm, 1,332 (47.9%) deaths were classified as AIDS and 1,451 (52.1%) as non-AIDS related., Conclusions: Our proposed stepwise algorithm for classifying deaths provides a valuable tool for future research, however validation in another setting is warranted.

Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in HIV-positive persons might be caused by both HIV and traditional or non-HIV-related factors. Our objective was to investigate long-term exposure to specific antiretroviral drugs and CKD., Design: A cohort study including 6843 HIV-positive persons with at least three serum creatinine measurements and corresponding body weight measurements from 2004 onwards., Methods: CKD was defined as either confirmed (two measurements >or=3 months apart) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 60 ml/min per 1.73 m or below for persons with baseline eGFR of above 60 ml/min per 1.73 m or confirmed 25% decline in eGFR for persons with baseline eGFR of 60 ml/min per 1.73 m or less, using the Cockcroft-Gault formula. Poisson regression was used to determine factors associated with CKD., Results: Two hundred and twenty-five (3.3%) persons progressed to CKD during 21 482 person-years follow-up, an incidence of 1.05 per 100 person-years follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-1.18]; median follow-up was 3.7 years (interquartile range 2.8-5.7). After adjustment for traditional factors associated with CKD and other confounding variables, increasing cumulative exposure to tenofovir [incidence rate ratio (IRR) per year 1.16, 95% CI 1.06-1.25, P < 0.0001), indinavir (IRR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.18, P < 0.0001), atazanavir (IRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.09-1.34, P = 0.0003) and lopinavir/r (IRR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.16, P = 0.030) were associated with a significantly increased rate of CKD. Consistent results were observed in wide-ranging sensitivity analyses, although of marginal statistical significance for lopinavir/r. No other antiretroviral drugs were associated with increased incidence of CKD., Conclusion: In this nonrandomized large cohort, increasing exposure to tenofovir was associated with a higher incidence of CKD, as was true for indinavir and atazanavir, whereas the results for lopinavir/r were less clear.

Background: Patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) might continue treatment with a virologically failing regimen. We sought to identify annual change in CD4(+) T-cell count according to levels of viraemia in patients on cART., Methods: A total of 111,371 CD4(+) T-cell counts and viral load measurements in 8,227 patients were analysed. Annual change in CD4(+) T-cell numbers was estimated using mixed models., Results: After adjustment, the estimated average annual change in CD4(+) T-cell count significantly increased when viral load was <500 copies/ml (30.4 cells/mm(3), 95% confidence interval [CI] 26.6-34.3), was stable when viral load was 500-9,999 copies/ml (3.1 cells/mm(3), 95% CI -5.3-11.5) and decreased when viral load was > or =10,000 copies/ml (-14.8 cells/mm(3), 95% CI -4.5--25.1). Patients taking a boosted protease inhibitor (PI) regimen had more positive annual CD4(+) T-cell count changes than patients taking other regimens for any given viral load strata: 30.9 cells/mm(3) (95% CI 27.7-34.1) when viral load was <500 copies/ml, 14.2 cells/mm(3) (95% CI -2.1-30.4) when viral load was 500-9,999 copies/ml and -19.9 cells/mm(3) (95% CI -36.6--3.3) when viral load was >or =10,000 copies/ml. By contrast, among patients taking a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen, the CD4(+) T-cell count significantly decreased when the viral load was 500-9,999 copies/ml (-18.6 cells/mm(3), 95% CI -33.8--3.5) and decreased at a faster rate when the viral load was > or =10,000 copies/ml (-44.4 cells/mm(3), 95% CI -62.0--26.9; P=0.0012, test for interaction)., Conclusions: On average, CD4(+) T-cell counts did not significantly decrease until the viral load exceeded 10,000 copies/ml in patients treated with a boosted PI-containing cART regimen, but decreased in patients taking an NNRTI-based cART regimen when viral load was 500-9,999 copies/ml.

Background and Objectives: Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients worldwide. We aimed to study clinical characteristics and outcome of 1075 consecutive patients diagnosed with HIV/TB from 2004 to 2006 in Europe and Argentina., Methods: One-year mortality was assessed in patients stratified according to region of residence, and factors associated with death were evaluated in multivariable Cox models., Results: At TB diagnosis, patients in Eastern Europe had less advanced immunodeficiency, whereas a greater proportion had a history of intravenous drug use, coinfection with hepatitis C, disseminated TB, and infection with drug-resistant TB (P < 0.0001). In Eastern Europe, fewer patients initiated TB treatment containing at least rifamycin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide or combination antiretroviral therapy (P < 0.0001). Mortality at 1 year was 27% in Eastern Europe, compared with 7, 9 and 11% in Central/Northern Europe, Southern Europe, and Argentina, respectively (P < 0.0001). In a multivariable model, the adjusted relative hazard of death was significantly lower in each of the other regions compared with Eastern Europe: 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.17-0.65), 0.28 (0.14-0.57), 0.34 (0.15-0.77) in Argentina, Southern Europe and Central/Northern Europe, respectively. Factors significantly associated with increased mortality were CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/microl [2.31 (1.56-3.45)], prior AIDS [1.74 (1.22-2.47)], disseminated TB [2.00 (1.38-2.85)], initiation of TB treatment not including rifamycin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide [1.68 (1.20-2.36)], and rifamycin resistance [2.10 (1.29-3.41)]. Adjusting for these known confounders did not explain the increased mortality seen in Eastern Europe., Conclusion: The poor outcome of patients with HIV/TB in Eastern Europe deserves further study and urgent public health attention.

Objective: To investigate whether HIV-infected patients on a stable and fully suppressive combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimen could safely be monitored less often than the current recommendations of every 3 months., Design: Two thousand two hundred and forty patients from the EuroSIDA study who maintained a stable and fully suppressed cART regimen for 1 year were included in the analysis., Methods: Risk of treatment failure, defined by viral rebound, fall in CD4 cell count, development of new AIDS-defining illness, serious opportunistic infection or death, in the 12 months following a year of a stable and fully suppressed regimen was assessed., Results: One hundred thirty-one (6%) patients experienced treatment failure in the 12 months following a year of stable therapy, viral rebound occurred in 99 (4.6%) patients. After 3, 6 and 12 months, patients had a 0.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.1-0.5], 2.2% (95% CI 1.6-2.8) and 6.0% (95% CI 5.0-7.0) risk of treatment failure, respectively. Patients who spent more than 80% of their time on cART with fully suppressed viraemia prior to baseline had a 38% reduced risk of treatment failure, hazard ratio 0.62 (95% CI 0.42-0.90, P = 0.01)., Conclusion: Patients who have responded well to cART and are on a well tolerated and durably fully suppressive cART regimen have a low chance of experiencing treatment failure in the next 3-6 months. Therefore, in this subgroup of otherwise healthy patients, it maybe reasonable to extend visit intervals to 6 months, with cost and time savings to both the treating clinics and the patients.

Objective(s): To investigate the relationship between detection of HIV drug resistance by 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy and the subsequent risk of progression to AIDS and death., Design: Virological failure was defined as experiencing two consecutive viral loads of more than 400 copies/ml in the time window between 0.5 and 2 years from starting antiretroviral therapy (baseline). Patients were grouped according to evidence of virological failure and whether there was detection of the International AIDS Society resistance mutations to one, two or three drug classes in the time window., Methods: Standard survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-fixed covariates defined at baseline was employed., Results: We studied 8229 patients in EuroSIDA who started antiretroviral therapy and who had at least 2 years of clinical follow-up. We observed 829 AIDS events and 571 deaths during 38,814 person-years of follow-up resulting in an overall incidence of new AIDS and death of 3.6 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI):3.4-3.8]. By 96 months from baseline, the proportion of patients with a new AIDS diagnosis or death was 20.3% (95% CI:17.7-22.9) in patients with no evidence of virological failure and 53% (39.3-66.7) in those with virological failure and mutations to three drug classes (P = 0.0001). An almost two-fold difference in risk was confirmed in the multivariable analysis (adjusted relative hazard = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.7, P = 0.005)., Conclusion: Although this study shows an association between the detection of resistance at failure and risk of clinical progression, further research is needed to clarify whether resistance reflects poor adherence or directly increases the risk of clinical events via exhaustion of drug options.

EuroSIDA is a pan-European observational study that follows 14,265 HIV-infected patients from 31 European countries, Israel and Argentina, of which 2,560 are patients from eastern Europe (EE). The study group has performed several analyses addressing regional differences in the HIV-epidemic across Europe, where all countries were divided into five regions: south, west central, north, east central Europe and EE. Significant regional differences in patients' characteristics and pattern of AIDS diagnoses were documented. More patients from EE were diagnosed with tuberculosis compared to other regions. Significantly fewer HIV-infected patients in EE, who fulfilled the criteria for starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART), actually received cART as compared with other regions of Europe. Those, receiving cART in EE had a lower initial virologic response rate irrespectively of the regimen used, although it has improved within years. Besides, treatment failure was more common in this region. Thus, improvements in the clinical management of HIV patients in EE are urgently needed. Strategies include creating scientific collaborations for HIV clinicians as well as teaching clinicians about the most advanced HIV management at clinically oriented courses held in eastern Europe.

Objective: The aim of this work was to assess loss to follow-up (LTFU) in EuroSIDA, an international multicentre observational cohort study., Methods: LTFU was defined as no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement after 1 January 2006. Poisson regression was used to describe factors related to LTFU., Results: The incidence of LTFU in 12 304 patients was 3.72 per 100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.58-3.86; 2712 LTFU] and varied among countries from 0.67 to 13.35. After adjustment, older patients, those with higher CD4 cell counts, and those who had started combination antiretroviral therapy all had lower incidences of LTFU, while injecting drug users had a higher incidence of LTFU. Compared with patients from Southern Europe and Argentina, patients from Eastern Europe had over a twofold increased incidence of LTFU after adjustment (incidence rate ratio 2.16; 95% CI 1.84-2.53; P<0.0001). A total of 2743 patients had a period of >1 year with no CD4 cell count or viral load measured during the year; 743 (27.1%) subsequently returned to follow-up., Conclusions: Some patients thought to be LTFU may have died, and efforts should be made to ascertain vital status wherever possible. A significant proportion of patients who have a year with no follow-up visit, CD4 cell count measurement or viral load measurement subsequently return to follow-up.

Objective: To compare virological outcome and genotypic resistance profiles in HIV-1-infected patients starting non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-containing regimens., Methods: NNRTI-naive patients were included who started treatment with nevirapine (NVP) or efavirenz (EFV) with genotypic resistance test results available at time of initiation (baseline). Virological failure was defined as two consecutive values > 500 copies/ml after starting the regimen. Cox models were used to investigate time to virological failure (the first of two values)., Results: A total of 759 patients were included (13% antiretroviral-naive): 389 initiated NVP and 370 initiated EFV. Baseline IAS-USA NNRTI resistance mutations were detected in 3%. Using the Rega algorithm (version 7.1) to interpret resistance, 460 (64%) patients had resistance (full or intermediate) to at least one drug they were starting (69% NVP, 60% EFV, P = 0.011); 287 (74%) NVP and 168 (45%) EFV patients experienced virological failure after treatment initiation, P < 0.001. After adjustment for previous antiretroviral use, previous AIDS, year started NNRTI, CD4 cell count (baseline, nadir), viral load (baseline, maximum), and baseline drug resistance (measured by Rega), the relative hazards (EFV versus NVP) of virological failure was 0.50, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-0.65, P < 0.001. At time of virological failure, comparable levels of NNRTI resistance were detected. The K103N mutation emerged more in patients failing EFV and Y181C in patients failing NVP., Conclusions: NVP may be associated with an inferior virological outcome compared to EFV in NNRTI-naive patients with extensive resistance to other drug classes. The profile of NNRTI resistance mutations when virologically failing an NNRTI-containing regimen appears to depend on the NNRTI the patients fail.

Objectives: To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)., Design and Methods: Poisson regression was used to identify prognostic markers for new AIDS/death in patients taking cART. A score was derived for 4169 patients from EuroSIDA and validated on 5150 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS)., Results: In EuroSIDA, 658 events occurred during 22 321 person-years of follow-up: an incidence rate of 3.0/100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7-3.3]. Current levels of viral load, CD4 cell count, CD4 cell slope, anaemia, and body mass index all independently predicted new AIDS/death, as did age, exposure group, a prior AIDS diagnosis, prior antiretroviral treatment and stopping all antiretroviral drugs. The EuroSIDA risk-score was divided into four strata; a patient in the lowest strata would have predicted chance of new AIDS/death of 1 in 801, 1 in 401 and 1 in 201 within the next 3, 6 or 12 months, respectively. The corresponding figures for the highest strata were 1 in 17, 1 in 9 and 1 in 5, respectively. A single-unit increase in the risk-score was associated with a 2.70 times higher incidence of clinical progression (95% CI, 2.56-2.84) in EuroSIDA and 2.88 (95% CI, 2.75-3.02) in SHCS., Conclusions: A clinically relevant prognostic score was derived in EuroSIDA and validated within the SHCS, with good agreement. The EuroSIDA risk-score will be made available publicly via an interface that will perform all calculations for the individual.

Background: The role of exposure to antiretrovirals in chronic renal failure (CRF) is not well understood. Glomerular filtration rates (GFR) are estimated using the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) or Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equations., Methods: Baseline was arbitrarily defined as the first recorded GFR; patients with two consecutive GFR < or = 60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) were defined as having CRF. Logistic regression was used to determine odds ratio (OR) of CRF at baseline. ART exposure (yes/no or cumulative exposure) prior to baseline was included in multivariate models (adjusted for region of Europe, age, prior AIDS, CD4 cell count nadir, viral load, hypertension and use of nephrotoxic anti-infective therapy)., Results: Using CG, the median GFR at baseline (n = 4474) was 94.4 (interquartile range, 80.5-109.3); 158 patients (3.5%) had CRF. Patients with CRF were older (median, 61.9 versus 43.1 years), had lower CD4 cell count nadirs (median, 80 versus 137 cells/microl), and were more likely to be diagnosed with AIDS (44.3 versus 30.4%), diabetes (16.5 versus 4.3%) or hypertension (53.8 versus 26.4%), all P < 0.001. In a multivariate model any use of indinavir [odds ratio (OR) 2.49; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.62-3.83] or tenofovir (OR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.25-3.81) was associated with increased odds of CRF, as was cumulative exposure to indinavir (OR, 1.15 per year of exposure; 95% CI, 1.06-1.25) or tenofovir (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.20-2.15). Highly consistent results were seen using the MDRD formula., Conclusions: Among antiretrovirals, only exposure to indinavir or tenofovir was associated with increased odds of CRF. We used a confirmed low GFR to define CRF to increase the robustness of our analysis, although there are several potential biases associated with this cross-sectional analysis.

Background: We have previously demonstrated an association between combination antiretroviral therapy and the risk of myocardial infarction. It is not clear whether this association differs according to the class of antiretroviral drugs. We conducted a study to investigate the association of cumulative exposure to protease inhibitors and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors with the risk of myocardial infarction., Methods: We analyzed data collected through February 2005 from our prospective observational study of 23,437 patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus. The incidence rates of myocardial infarction during the follow-up period were calculated, and the associations between myocardial infarction and exposure to protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors were determined., Results: Three hundred forty-five patients had a myocardial infarction during 94,469 person-years of observation. The incidence of myocardial infarction increased from 1.53 per 1000 person-years in those not exposed to protease inhibitors to 6.01 per 1000 person-years in those exposed to protease inhibitors for more than 6 years. After adjustment for exposure to the other drug class and established cardiovascular risk factors (excluding lipid levels), the relative rate of myocardial infarction per year of protease-inhibitor exposure was 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.10 to 1.23), whereas the relative rate per year of exposure to nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors was 1.05 (95% CI, 0.98 to 1.13). Adjustment for serum lipid levels further reduced the effect of exposure to each drug class to 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.18) and 1.00 (95% CI, 0.93 to 1.09), respectively., Conclusions: Increased exposure to protease inhibitors is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, which is partly explained by dyslipidemia. We found no evidence of such an association for nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors; however, the number of person-years of observation for exposure to this class of drug was less than that for exposure to protease inhibitors., (Copyright 2007 Massachusetts Medical Society.)

Objectives: The aim of the study was to compare incidence rates (IRs) of AIDS/death in patients with and without treatment interruption (TI) of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) for periods of 3 months or more for different categories of CD4 cell count and viral load, and to determine risk factors for clinical progression to AIDS/death., Methods: Patients starting cART with a CD4 cell count and a viral load available within 6 months of starting cART were included in the study. The IR and risk factors of TI were determined. We assessed the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for TI and AIDS/death events using Poisson regression models., Results: Of 3811 patients included in the study, 26% were ART-naïve prior to cART. The median date of starting cART was July 1997, the median CD4 cell count was 226 cells/microL and the median viral load was 4.36 log(10) HIV-1 RNA copies/mL. We observed 1243 interruptions and 403 AIDS-events/deaths. The IR of AIDS/death was higher in patients with lower CD4 cell counts or higher viral loads, regardless of TI. After adjusting for baseline factors, the IR of AIDS/death was significantly higher in the TI group than in the non-TI group [IRR 2.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.01-3.44; P<0.0001]; this could be explained by current CD4 cell counts and viral loads, as the CD4 cell count- and viral load-adjusted IRR was 1.14 (95% CI 0.86-1.51; P=0.37). Within the TI group, patients with a current CD4 cell count of <200 cells/microL had a 3-fold higher risk of AIDS/death than those with a CD4 cell count of 200-350 cells/microL, whereas patients with a current CD4 cell count of >350 cells/microL had a 4-fold lower risk of disease progression., Conclusions: TI is common in clinical practice. The risk of AIDS/death increased more than 2-fold for patients stopping all cART regimen drugs for 3 months or more. Among patients experiencing a TI, those with low CD4 cell counts, high viral loads or prior AIDS had an increased risk of AIDS/death. Hence, TI should be discouraged and closely monitored if it occurs.

Background: Changes in virologic response to initial combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) over calendar time may indicate improvements in cART or emergence of primary resistance. Regional variations may identify differences in available antiretroviral drugs or patient management., Methods: Virologic response (viral load < 500 copies/mL) 6 to 12 months after starting cART was analyzed in antiretroviral-naive EuroSIDA patients. Analyses were stratified by region (south, central west, north, east) or time started cART (early, 1996-1997; mid, 1998-1999; late, 2000-1904)., Results: Virologic suppression was achieved by 60% of 2102 patients: 57% south (n = 560), 61% central west (n = 466), 63% north (n = 606), 58% east (n = 470) (P = 0.091). An increase was observed over time: 52% early cART, 56% mid cART, 69% late cART (P < 0.001). Overall, there were significant effects of region (P = 0.026) and time (P < 0.001) on virologic response after adjustment for confounders. Stratified by period, regional differences were less evident (early cART, P = 0.967; mid cART, P = 0.291; late cART, P = 0.163). Stratified by region, temporal changes were observed (south, P = 0.061; central west, P < 0.001; north: P = 0.070; east, P = 0.001)., Conclusions: There was some evidence of regional differences in initial virologic response to cART. Improvements over time were observed, suggesting that so far, the effect of primary resistance has not been of sufficient magnitude to prevent increasing suppression rates.

Background: Whether hepatitis B (HBV) coinfection affects outcome in HIV-1-infected patients remains unclear., Objective: To assess the prevalence of HBV (assessed as HBsAg) coinfection and its possible impact on progression to AIDS, all-cause deaths, liver-related deaths and response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the EuroSIDA cohort., Methods: Data on 9802 patients in 72 European HIV centres were analysed. Incidence rates of AIDS, global mortality and liver-related mortality, time to 25% CD4 cell count increase and time to viral load < 400 copies/ml after starting HAART were calculated and compared between HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients., Results: HBsAg was found in 498 (8.7%) patients. The incidence of new AIDS diagnosis was similar in HBsAg-positive and HBsAg-negative patients (3.3 and 3.4/100 person-years, respectively) even after adjustment for potential confounders: the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.94 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74-1.19; P = 0.61]. The incidences of all-cause and liver-related mortalities were significantly higher in HBsAg-positive subjects (3.7 and 0.7/100 person-years, respectively) compared with HBsAg-negative subjects (2.6 and 0.2/100 person-years, respectively). The adjusted IRR values were 1.53 for global (95% CI, 1.23-1.90; P = 0.0001) and 3.58 for liver-related (95% CI, 2.09-6.16; P < 0.0001) mortality. HBsAg status did not influence viral or immunological responses among the 1679 patients starting HAART., Conclusions: The prevalence of HBV coinfection was 9% in the EuroSIDA cohort. Chronic HBV infection significantly increased liver-related mortality in HIV-1-infected patients but did not impact on progression to AIDS or on viral and immunological responses to HAART.

Objectives: To investigate the ability of several HIV-1 drug-resistance interpretation systems, as well as the number of pre-specified combinations of abacavir-related mutations, to predict virological response to abacavir-containing regimens in antiretroviral therapy-experienced, abacavir-naive patients starting an abacavir-containing regimen in the EuroSIDA cohort., Patients and Methods: A total of 100 HIV-infected patients with viral load (VL) >500 copies/ml who had a plasma sample available at the time of starting abacavir (baseline) were included. Resistance to abacavir was interpreted by using eight different commonly used systems that consisted of rules-based algorithms or tables of mutations. Correlation between baseline abacavir-resistance mutations and month 6 virological response was performed on this population using a multivariable linear regression model accounting for censored data., Results: The baseline VL was 4.36 log10 RNA copies/ml [interquartile range (IQR): 3.65-4.99 log10 RNA copies/ml] and the median CD4 cell count was 210 cells/microl (IQR: 67-305 cells/microl). Our patients were pre-exposed to a median of seven antiretrovirals (2-12) before starting abacavir therapy. The median (range) number of abacavir mutations (according to the International AIDS Society-USA) detected at baseline was 3.5 (0-8). Overall, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of the median month 6 VL decline was 0.86 log10 RNA copies/ml [95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.45-1.24]. The VL in those patients (n=31) who intensified treatment by adding only abacavir decreased by a median 0.20 log10 RNA copies/ml (95% CI: -0.18; +0.94). The proportion of patients who harboured viruses fully resistant to abacavir among the eight genotypic resistance interpretation algorithms ranged from 12% [Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA (ANRS)] to 79% [Stanford HIV RT and PR Sequence Database (HIVdb)]. Some interpretation systems showed statistically significant associations between the predicted resistance status and the virological response while others showed no consistent association. The number of active drugs in the regimen was associated with greater virological suppression (additional month 6 VL reduction per additional sensitive drug=0.51, 95% CI: 0.15-0.88, P=0.006); baseline VL was also weakly associated (additional month 6 VL reduction per log10 higher=0.30, 95% CI: -0.02; +0.62, P=0.06). In contrast, the number of drugs previously received was associated with diminished viral reduction (additional month 6 VL reduction per additional drug=-0.14, 95% CI: -0.28; 0.00, P=0.05)., Conclusions: Our results revealed a high degree of variability among several genotypic resistance interpretation algorithms currently in use for abacavir. Therefore, the interpretation of genotypic resistance for predicting response to regimens containing abacavir remains a major challenge.

Objectives: To investigate the interplay between resistance and adherence in the virological failure of three fundamentally different highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimens., Methods: We retrospectively identified 56 verified primary virological failures (viral load >400 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL) among 293 patients randomized to two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs)+ritonavir+saquinavir (RS-arm) (n=115), two NRTIs+nevirapine+nelfinavir (NN-arm) (n=118), or abacavir+stavudine+didanosine (ASD-arm) (n=60) followed up for a median of 90 weeks. Data on adherence were collected from patient files, and genotyping was performed on plasma samples collected at time of failure., Results: Treatment interruption or poor adherence was mainly caused by side effects and accounted for 74% of failures, and was associated with absence of resistance mutations. In the 30 failing patients not switched from randomized treatment, we found resistance in two of 12 patients in the RS-arm (M184 V only), four of six patients in the NN-arm [all four had non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations], and seven of 12 patients in the ASD-arm (NRTI mutations only). Two adherent patients on randomized treatment failed in the RS-arm, none in the NN-arm, and six in the ASD-arm., Conclusions: Primary virological failure was caused mainly by treatment interruption. No primary protease inhibitor (PI) mutations were found in patients failing on boosted saquinavir, whereas resistance to NNRTIs and NRTIs was prevalent in several patients failing on regimens based on these medications.

Background: It remains controversial whether exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment increases the risk of myocardial infarction., Methods: In this prospective observational study, we enrolled 23,468 patients from 11 previously established cohorts from December 1999 to April 2001 and collected follow-up data until February 2002. Data were collected on infection with the human immunodeficiency virus and on risk factors for and the incidence of myocardial infarction. Relative rates were calculated with Poisson regression models. Combination antiretroviral therapy was defined as any combination regimen of antiretroviral drugs that included a protease inhibitor or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor., Results: Over a period of 36,199 person-years, 126 patients had a myocardial infarction. The incidence of myocardial infarction increased with longer exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (adjusted relative rate per year of exposure, 1.26 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.41]; P<0.001). Other factors significantly associated with myocardial infarction were older age, current or former smoking, previous cardiovascular disease, and male sex, but not a family history of coronary heart disease. A higher total serum cholesterol level, a higher triglyceride level, and the presence of diabetes were also associated with an increased incidence of myocardial infarction., Conclusions: Combination antiretroviral therapy was independently associated with a 26 percent relative increase in the rate of myocardial infarction per year of exposure during the first four to six years of use. However, the absolute risk of myocardial infarction was low and must be balanced against the marked benefits from antiretroviral treatment., (Copyright 2003 Massachusetts Medical Society)

Objectives: To describe the prevalence and risk factors of poor CD4 count rise despite a good virological response on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART)., Methods: The patients from the EuroSIDA study who started HAART with a baseline CD4 count of <350 cells/microL and where all viral load (pVL) measures remained below 500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL between 6 and 12 months after the start of HAART were included. The risk factors for poor CD4 count rise were analyzed by multiple regression., Results: Seven hundred and eighty patients were included. A low CD4 count response was observed in 225 patients (29%). The risk factors for this condition were older age, lower CD4 count at baseline, higher increase from the nadir to baseline CD4 count and lower pVL at baseline. Patients taking > or =one drug from each of the three antiviral classes were more likely to have a good CD4 response but a minority of the study participants was taking this treatment regimen (3.1%) and the confidence interval was large., Conclusions: A poor immune reconstitution despite a good virological control is frequent after initiation of HAART among patients with a baseline CD4 count of <350 cells/microL. The underlying mechanisms leading to this condition seems mainly driven by the age and the baseline immunological and virological status of the patients.

Antiretroviral treatment with three nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) is widely used, but the combination of abacavir, didanosine and stavudine has never been investigated. We describe the surprising and consistent genotypic and phenotypic outcome in patients failing this combination. As part of a Danish multicentre study, 60 antiretroviral-naive patients were randomized to treatment with abacavir, didanosine and stavudine. Failure was defined as one HIV-1 RNA >400 copies/ml. Genotyping was performed using TrueGene HIV-1 assay (Visible Genetics, London, UK). Phenotypic susceptibilities were determined with the Virco Antivirogram assay. Eight patients failed treatment with a median viral load of 2.980 copies/ml (range 478-5.950). At baseline, five patients were wild-type. Three patients harboured nucleoside excision mutations (NEMs), but phenotypic susceptibilities were within normal range. All five patients with wild-type virus developed K65R and four of these patients also acquired the S68G mutation. Phenotypic susceptibility decreased towards abacavir (median 8.9-fold) and didanosine (median 3.2-fold), while susceptibility towards stavudine was unchanged (median 0.8-fold). Susceptibility towards lamivudine and tenofovir decreased median 14.2- and 4.0-fold, respectively. In two patients with baseline resistance mutations, further accumulation of NEMs and V75T or L74V was observed. One patient developed Q151M. Failure of a triple NRTI regimen is possible and frequent with only the K65R mutation. Under adequate selection pressure K65R can easily emerge in vivo and may compromise several future treatment options including newer NRTIs. The unexpected high incidence of S68G suggests a functional role of this mutation in viruses harbouring K65R.

Background: Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion., Methods: Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model., Results: Of 6,941, 2,021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77-1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81-1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28-0.37) for 1979-1990, 1991-1993, and 1997-2001, respectively, compared to 1994-1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997-2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001)., Conclusion: These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979-2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends.

This study prospectively assessed the impact of treatment modality, virus load, and CD4 cell count of <50 cells/mm(3) on human immunodeficiency virus disease progression. The incidence rate of new AIDS disease or death was 54.8 (95% confidence interval, 48.7-59.9) per 100 person-years of follow-up. Independent predictors related to progression were latest CD4 cell count (relative risk [RR], 0.84/10 mm(3) higher; P<.0001), latest hemoglobin level (RR, 0.79/g/L higher; P<.0001), Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia prophylaxis (RR, 0.49; P<.0001), latest body mass index (RR, 0.93/kg/m(2) higher; P=.002), latest virus load (RR, 1.11/log(10) higher; P=.03), and intensity of treatment (RR, 1.82, P=.004; RR 2.27, P<.0001; RR 2.46, P=.0001; RR 2.33 P<.0006; 5.10, P<.0001, respectively, for 4, 3, 2, 1, or no drugs vs. >or=5 drugs). Although reverse causality cannot be excluded, more intense antiviral treatment appears to decrease the risk of progression in immunocompromised patients.

Current antiretroviral therapy can induce considerable, sustained viral suppression followed by immunological recovery, in which naive CD4 + cells are important. Long-term immunological recovery was investigated during the first 3 y of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in 210 HIV-1-infected patients. The focus was on the naive CD4 + cell time course and associations between naive CD4 + cell counts and established prognostic markers. Total and naive CD4 + cell counts were measured using flow cytometry. The HIV-RNA detection limit was 20 copies/ml. During 36 months of HAART, the total CD4 + count followed a triphasic pattern, reflecting an initial phase of rapid redistribution from lymphoid tissues, followed by a slow increase, partially due to an increase in naive CD4+ cell count. From Month 18 onwards, both naive and total CD4 + cell counts stabilized, although viral suppression was sustained. There was no association between plasma viral load and the increase in naive CD4 + cell count. Importantly, baseline naive CD4 + cell count was significantly associated with the change in naive CD4 + cell count, suggesting that the naive cell count at baseline does influence the immunological recovery that can be obtained from treatment. Surprisingly, the naive CD4 + cell count tended to stabilize at a subnormal level after 18 months of HAART. This finding merits further investigation.

Objective: To assess the factors associated with virologic response to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-containing regimens in a large clinic cohort., Design: Inception cohort., Setting: HIV clinics in Europe, Patients: We identified all patients in EuroSIDA who began a regimen including either nevirapine or efavirenz (not both) after July 1997 and for whom pre-therapy viral load and CD4 cell count were known., Main Outcome Measures: Virological failure., Results: A total of 1325 patients initiated nevirapine and 878 efavirenz. Respectively, median start dates were October 1998 and May 1999. Other factors at baseline, including CD4 cell count, viral load, previous AIDS, previous antiretroviral drug use and make-up of the NNRTI-containing regimen were all approximately similar between the nevirapine and efavirenz groups. A total of 669 patients experienced virological failure during follow-up. In a Cox model, less protease inhibitors and nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) previously used, higher CD4 nadir, lower viral load at baseline, a previous AIDS diagnosis and less NRTIs in the regimen were associated with lower risk of virological failure. The relative hazard of virological failure comparing those on efavirenz with those on nevirapine was 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.69; P < 0.0001)., Conclusions: The difference in virologic outcome between those using nevirapine and efavirenz in this almost entirely drug-experienced population could reflect differences in effectiveness of the drugs in this setting but, despite the similarity between groups at baseline, bias cannot be excluded as an explanation. Replication of these findings in randomized trials and other cohort studies is required.

Purpose: To assess the effect of changing antiretroviral therapy in patients initially treated with saquinavir hard gel capsule (hgc)., Method: A retrospective cohort study comparing the virological and immunological responses in antiretroviral-naïve patients initially treated with a regimen of saquinavir-hgc, zidovudine, and lamivudine, with patients receiving either ritonavir or indinavir on a background of zidovudine and lamivudine., Results: Twenty-nine patients starting with saquinavir-hgc as the protease inhibitor (PI) component were compared to 58 patients starting with ritonavir (n = 16) or indinavir (n = 42). Median follow-up time was 30 and 33 months, respectively. Twelve, 18, 24, and 30 months after starting a regimen including saquinavir-hgc, 72%, 50%, 4%, and 0% of patients still received this PI. At these time points, 35%, 24%, 59%, and 74% of the patients in the saquinavir group obtained an HIV-RNA <500 copies/mL compared to 76%, 72%, 66%, and 65% in the indinavir/ritonavir group. No significant difference in CD4 count between the two groups was observed., Conclusion: We found that saquinavir-hgc, in combination with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, suppressed viral load insufficiently in HIV patients naïve to antiretroviral therapy. However, the suboptimal effect of saquinavir-hgc seems reversible after optimizing the antiretroviral regimen, at least for the short term.

Background: Patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and a history of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia are at high risk for relapse if they are not given secondary prophylaxis. Whether secondary prophylaxis against P. carinii pneumonia can be safely discontinued in patients who have a response to highly active antiretroviral therapy is not known., Methods: We analyzed episodes of recurrent P. carinii pneumonia in 325 HIV-infected patients (275 men and 50 women) in eight prospective European cohorts. Between October 1996 and January 2000, these patients discontinued secondary prophylaxis during treatment with at least three anti-HIV drugs after they had at least one peripheral-blood CD4 cell count of more than 200 cells per cubic millimeter., Results: Secondary prophylaxis was discontinued at a median CD4 cell count of 350 per cubic millimeter; the median nadir CD4 cell count had been 50 per cubic millimeter. The median duration of the increase in the CD4 cell count to more than 200 per cubic millimeter after discontinuation of secondary prophylaxis was 11 months. The median follow-up period after discontinuation of secondary prophylaxis was 13 months, yielding a total of 374 person-years of follow-up; for 355 of these person-years, CD4 cell counts remained at or above 200 per cubic millimeter. No cases of recurrent P. carinii pneumonia were diagnosed during this period; the incidence was thus 0 per 100 patient-years (99 percent confidence interval, 0 to 1.2 per 100 patient-years, on the basis of the entire follow-up period, and 0 to 1.3 per 100 patient-years, on the basis of the follow-up period during which CD4 cell counts remained at or above 200 per cubic millimeter)., Conclusions: It is safe to discontinue secondary prophylaxis against P. carinii pneumonia in patients with HIV infection who have an immunologic response to highly active antiretroviral therapy.

The Danish Protease Inhibitor (PI) Study has enrolled 318 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected, PI-naive patients for the purpose of comparing 3 PI-containing regimens for the treatment of HIV infection. The regimens include 2 nucleoside analogues in combination with indinavir (Idr), ritonavir (Rtv), or Rtv and saquinavir (Rtv/Sqv). Similar percentages of patients in the 3 study arms achieved reduced levels (

Background: The clinical presentation of HIV-1 related diseases could have changed after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We aimed to assess changes over time in the incidence of ADIs overall and within CD4 lymphocyte count strata, the relationship with treatment and degree of immunodeficiency at diagnosis of ADIs., Methods: We did a prospective observational multicentre study of over 7300 patients in 52 European HIV-1 outpatient clinics. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years of observation were calculated., Findings: In total, we recorded 1667 new ADIs; the incidence of ADIs declined from 30.7 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1994 (95% CI 28.0-33.4) to 2.5 per 100 patient-years of observation during 1998 (95% CI 2.0-3.0, p<0.0001, test for trend). Median CD4 lymphocyte count at diagnosis of a new ADI increased from 28 cells/microL to 125 cells/microL between 1994 and 1998 (p<0.0001), yet a steep decline in the rate of ADIs was seen after stratification by latest CD4 lymphocyte count within each year (< or = 50, 51-200, and > 200 cells/microL). Patients on HAART had a lower rate of ADIs than patients not on this treatment within each CD4 lymphocyte count strata. The proportion of ADIs attributable to cytomegalovirus retinitis and Mycobacterium avium complex declined over time (p=0.0058 and 0.0022, respectively), whereas the proportion of diagnoses attributable to non-Hodgkin lymphoma has increased (p<0.0001). In 1994, less than 4% of ADIs were non-Hodgkin lymphoma, in 1998 the proportion was almost 16%. This condition has become one of the most common ADIs in patients on HAART., Interpretation: Our findings lend support to the idea that treatment regimens can lower the incidence of ADIs. The immediate risk of an ADI for a given CD4 lymphocyte count has declined over time and is lower among patients on HAART. Long-term follow-up of patients on combination treatment is essential to monitor the incidence of new and emerging diagnoses.

Background: Predictors of virological response to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) have never been systematically evaluated in a large continental multicenter cohort of unselected human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people., Objective: To determine the factors related to achieving and maintaining undetectable plasma HIV-1 RNA levels among HIV-1-infected patients first starting protease inhibitor- or nonnucleoside retrotranscriptase inhibitor-containing HAART in Europe., Design: Prospective multicenter cohort study., Setting: Fifty-two clinical centers in 17 European countries included in the EuroSIDA Study Group, from August 1996 to April 1999., Patients: A total of 1469 HIV-positive patients first starting HAART recruited from an unselected cohort of more than 7300 HIV-positive patients., Main Outcome Measure: Detection of factors related to virological success after first starting HAART (baseline) and ensuing failure by standard survival techniques, including Kaplan-Meier techniques and Cox proportional hazards models. All analyses were intention to treat., Results: Most patients (80%) achieved plasma HIV-1 RNA levels of less than 500 copies/mL during follow-up (60.4% at 6 months from the onset of HAART). Patients with higher baseline HIV-1 RNA levels (relative hazard [RH], 0.76 per log higher; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69-0.84; P<.001) and those taking saquinavir mesylate hard gel as a single protease inhibitor (RH, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.47-0.82; P<.001) were less likely to reach undetectable HIV-1 RNA levels. Conversely, higher CD4+ lymphocyte counts (RH per 50% higher, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.16; P = .008) and the initiation of 3 or more new antiretroviral drugs (RH, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.03-1.61; P = .02) were independent predictors of higher success. Once success was achieved, HIV-1 RNA levels rebounded in more than one third of all patients during follow-up (24% at 6 months). Antiretroviral-naive patients (RH, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.29-0.87; P = .01), older patients (RH, 0.86 per year older; 95% CI, 0.75-0.99; P = .04), and those starting a protease inhibitor other than saquinavir hard gel (RH, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.44-0.98; P = .04) were at decreased hazard for virological failure. Higher baseline HIV-1 RNA level (RH, 1.18 per log higher; 95% CI, 0.99-1.40; P = .06) and a longer time to achieve virological success (RH per 12 months, 1.53; 95% CI, 0.99-2.38; P = .06) were marginally significant predictors of a decreased hazard of ensuing virological failure., Conclusions: HAART is associated with a favorable virological response if started when the baseline HIV-1 RNA level is low, if at least 2 new nucleoside retrotranscriptase inhibitors are added, and if standard doses of saquinavir hard gel capsule are avoided as a single protease inhibitor. Older patients are more likely to achieve virological success. Thereafter, the higher durability of virological response is predicted by an antiretroviral-naive status and by the use of specific regimens. Lower baseline HIV-1 RNA levels and rapid maximal viral suppression seem to be other important factors in the durability of virological response.

Objectives: To compare the efficacy and safety of indinavir 800 mg three times a day, ritonavir 600 mg twice a day, and a combination of ritonavir 400 mg twice a day and saquinavir 400 mg twice a day, when administered with two nucleoside analogues., Design: A randomized, open-labelled, controlled trial. Two hundred and eighty-four patients started randomized treatment. The primary end-point was the proportion of patients with HIV RNA of 200 copies/ml or less (Roche Amplicor) and HIV RNA of 20 copies/ml or less (Roche ultradirect assay) at 6 months. Analysis was performed as intent-to-treat, and missing values were accounted for as failures., Results: As of 1 May 1998, 269 patients should have completed 24 weeks of treatment. The proportion of patients with HIV RNA of 200 copies/ml or less was 71% (indinavir), 67% (ritonavir), and 82% (ritonavir + saquinavir), P = 0.07. In antiretroviral drug-naive patients (n = 119), the corresponding figures were 63, 57, and 89% (P < 0.01), whereas among drug-experienced patients (n = 165) 77, 74, and 77% had HIV RNA of 200 copies/ml or less (P = 0.90). The same pattern was observed in the ultradirect analysis. All three regimens were generally safe, but significantly more patients in the ritonavir group (37%) stopped treatment because of adverse drug reactions compared with the indinavir group (8%) and the ritonavir plus saquinavir group (16%) (P < 0.001)., Conclusions: Treatment with saquinavir plus ritonavir in combination with two nucleoside analogues is generally safe, and has superior short-term antiviral efficacy compared with indinavir and ritonavir also combined with two nucleoside analogues in antiretroviral drug-naive patients. Further follow-up is needed to determine the durability of the viral response.