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Much of mainstream economic analysis assumes that markets adjust smoothly, through prices, to changes in economic conditions. However, this is not necessarily the case for local housing markets, whose spatial structures may exhibit persistence, so that conditions may not be those most suited to the requirements of modern-day living. Persistence can arise from the existence of transaction costs. The paper tests the proposition that housing markets in Inner London exhibit a degree of path dependence, through the construction of a three-equation model, and examines the impact of variables constructed for the 19th and early 20th centuries on modern house prices. These include 19th-century social structures, slum clearance programmes and the 1908 underground network. Each is found to be significant. The tests require the construction of novel historical datasets, which are also described in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

As a result of the recommendations of the Barker Review of Housing Supply in 2004, the Department of Communities and Local Government in England commissioned the construction of an econometric model of regional housing markets in order to examine the effects of different levels of housing construction on long-run affordability. The model has been regularly used as part of the policy-making process in England. The paper describes the structure of the model, which includes sectors covering house prices, household formation, tenure, migration flows, demographics and labour markets. Furthermore, through simulation analysis, the paper examines some of the key policy questions that have occurred in UK housing in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid 1990s, Meen set out a series of propositions concerning the relationship between housing and the macro economy during the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper provides 10 further propositions for the early years of this century, taking into account recent research and policy concerns. The first five propositions concern housing market risk, whereas the remaining issues deal with the sustainability of homeownership. The empirical evidence presented finds that there is limited evidence for bubbles over the past 10 years and models of house prices are stable. Furthermore, housing possessions are unlikely to fall to the levels observed in the early 1980s. It is also suggested that the private rental market may not expand at the same rate as in the past 10 years, but there are risks to homeowners down the income distribution. Finally, the main beneficiaries of new affordability targets may be existing rather than new households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers how empirical models of urban housing markets might be constructed as a basis for policy analysis. It is suggested that this is fundamentally more difficult than national or regional models, because of particular characteristics of urban markets--notably, the importance of social interactions, non-linearity and segregation. However, recent advances in the modelling of social interactions point to a possible way forward. The paper begins by reviewing some aspects of this literature and shows how the models generate non-linearities consistent with recent work on thresholds in local housing markets. Simple cellular automata are also used to demonstrate this point and how segregation may arise. A review follows of work on discrete choice models, which include social interactions within their structure. Bringing all the tools together, it is suggested that there is now the potential to construct urban housing models, although a great deal of theoretical and empirical work remains to be done. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the effects of mortgage rationing on the level of housing demand and house prices in Great Britain. It derives the housing user cost of capital in the absence of credit market constraints. The article also discusses how inflation affects house prices. The effects of a change in the inflation rate on the mortgage market and nominal interest rates are examined. The article specifies a model to determine real house prices and results are presented.