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Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so-called lowest-low-fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest-fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest-low-fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article compares the declines in fertility in Europe and the Third World. Lower levels of fertility were largely due to the adoption of innovative behavior within marriage. So far this transformation of reproduction has been monotonic and rapid. Socioeconomic development is associated with the timing of the onset of the transition and is responsible for differences among groups during the transition, although it is not yet possible to rule out alternative explanations such as ideational or institutional change The pace and pervasiveness of the declines, however, suggest that a mechanism of diffusion is involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]