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The relationship between community prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and the burden of severe, life-threatening disease remains poorly defined. To examine the three most common severe malaria phenotypes from catchment populations across East Africa, we assembled a dataset of 6506 hospital admissions for malaria in children aged 3 months to 9 years from 2006 to 2020. Admissions were paired with data from community parasite infection surveys. A Bayesian procedure was used to calibrate uncertainties in exposure (parasite prevalence) and outcomes (severe malaria phenotypes). Each 25% increase in prevalence conferred a doubling of severe malaria admission rates. Severe malaria remains a burden predominantly among young children (3 to 59 months) across a wide range of community prevalence typical of East Africa. This study offers a quantitative framework for linking malaria parasite prevalence and severe disease outcomes in children.

Introduction In order to improve our understanding of the fundamental limits of core interventions and guide efforts based on prioritization and identification of effective/novel interventions with great potentials to interrupt persistent malaria transmission in the context of high vector control coverage, the drivers of persistent disease transmission were investigated in three eco-epidemiological settings; forested areas in Cameroon, coastal area in Kenya and highland areas in Ethiopia. Methods Mosquitoes were sampled in three eco-epidemiological settings using different entomological sampling techniques and analysed for Plasmodium infection status and blood meal origin in blood-fed specimens. Human behavioural surveys were conducted to assess the knowledge and attitude of the population on malaria and preventive measures, their night activities, and sleeping pattern. The parasitological analysis was conducted to determine the prevalence of Plasmodium infection in the population using rapid diagnostic tests. Results Despite the diversity in the mosquito fauna, their biting behaviour was found to be closely associated to human behaviour in the three settings. People in Kenya and Ethiopia were found to be more exposed to mosquito bites during the early hours of the evening (18-21h) while it was in the early morning (4-6 am) in Cameroon. Malaria transmission was high in Cameroon compared to Kenya and Ethiopia with over 50% of the infected bites recorded outdoors. The non-users of LLINs were 2.5 to 3 times more likely to be exposed to the risk of acquiring malaria compared to LLINs users. Malaria prevalence was high (42%) in Cameroon, and more than half of the households visited had at least one individual infected with Plasmodium parasites. Conclusions The study suggests high outdoor malaria transmission occurring in the three sites with however different determinants driving residual malaria transmission in these areas.

Background The most widely used measures of declining burden of malaria across sub-Saharan Africa are predictions from geospatial models. These models apply spatiotemporal autocorrelations and covariates to parasite prevalence data and then use a function of parasite prevalence to predict clinical malaria incidence. We attempted to assess whether trends in malaria cases, based on local surveillance, were similar to those captured by Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) incidence surfaces. Methods We undertook a systematic review (PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews; ID = CRD42019116834) to identify empirical data on clinical malaria in Africa since 2000, where reports covered at least 5 continuous years. The trends in empirical data were then compared with the trends of time-space matched clinical malaria incidence from MAP using the Spearman rank correlation. The correlations (rho) between changes in empirically observed and modelled estimates of clinical malaria were displayed by forest plots and examined by meta-regression. Results Sixty-seven articles met our inclusion criteria representing 124 sites from 24 African countries. The single most important factor explaining the correlation between empirical observations and modelled predictions was the slope of empirically observed data over time (rho = − 0.989; 95% CI − 0.998, − 0.939; p Conclusions In many locations, both local surveillance data and modelled estimates showed declines in malaria burden and hence similar trends. However, there was a weak association between individual surveillance datasets and the modelled predictions where stalling in progress or resurgence of malaria burden was empirically observed. Surveillance data were patchy, indicating a need for improved surveillance to strengthen both empiric reporting and modelled predictions.

Background Understanding the age patterns of disease is necessary to target interventions to maximise cost-effective impact. New malaria chemoprevention and vaccine initiatives target young children attending routine immunisation services. Here we explore the relationships between age and severity of malaria hospitalisation versus malaria transmission intensity. Methods Clinical data from 21 surveillance hospitals in East Africa were reviewed. Malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years from discrete administrative areas since 2006 were identified. Each site-time period was matched to a model estimated community-based age-corrected parasite prevalence to provide predictions of prevalence in childhood (PfPR2–10). Admission with all-cause malaria, severe malaria anaemia (SMA), respiratory distress (RD) and cerebral malaria (CM) were analysed as means and predicted probabilities from Bayesian generalised mixed models. Results 52,684 malaria admissions aged 1 month to 14 years were described at 21 hospitals from 49 site-time locations where PfPR2–10 varied from PfPR2–10 < 5%), five low-moderate transmission (PfPR2–10 5–9%), 20 moderate transmission (PfPR2–10 10–29%) and 12 high transmission (PfPR2–10 ≥ 30%). The majority of malaria admissions were below 5 years of age (69–85%) and rare among children aged 10–14 years (0.7–5.4%) across all transmission settings. The mean age of all-cause malaria hospitalisation was 49.5 months (95% CI 45.1, 55.4) under low transmission compared with 34.1 months (95% CI 30.4, 38.3) at high transmission, with similar trends for each severe malaria phenotype. CM presented among older children at a mean of 48.7 months compared with 39.0 months and 33.7 months for SMA and RD, respectively. In moderate and high transmission settings, 34% and 42% of the children were aged between 2 and 23 months and so within the age range targeted by chemoprevention or vaccines. Conclusions Targeting chemoprevention or vaccination programmes to areas where community-based parasite prevalence is ≥10% is likely to match the age ranges covered by interventions (e.g. intermittent presumptive treatment in infancy to children aged 2–23 months and current vaccine age eligibility and duration of efficacy) and the age ranges of highest disease burden.

Background The over-distributed pattern of malaria transmission has led to attempts to define malaria “hotspots” that could be targeted for purposes of malaria control in Africa. However, few studies have investigated the use of routine health facility data in the more stable, endemic areas of Africa as a low-cost strategy to identify hotspots. Here the objective was to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of fever positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT) malaria cases routinely collected along the Kenyan Coast. Methods Data on fever positive RDT cases between March 2018 and February 2019 were obtained from patients presenting to six out-patients health-facilities in a rural area of Kilifi County on the Kenyan Coast. To quantify spatial clustering, homestead level geocoded addresses were used as well as aggregated homesteads level data at enumeration zone. Data were sub-divided into quarterly intervals. Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistics using Bernoulli probability model was used to detect hotspots of fever positive RDTs across all ages, where cases were febrile individuals with a positive test and controls were individuals with a negative test. Results Across 12 months of surveillance, there were nine significant clusters that were identified using the spatial scan statistics among RDT positive fevers. These clusters included 52% of all fever positive RDT cases detected in 29% of the geocoded homesteads in the study area. When the resolution of the data was aggregated at enumeration zone (village) level the hotspots identified were located in the same areas. Only two of the nine hotspots were temporally stable accounting for 2.7% of the homesteads and included 10.8% of all fever positive RDT cases detected. Conclusion Taking together the temporal instability of spatial hotspots and the relatively modest fraction of the malaria cases that they account for; it would seem inadvisable to re-design the sub-county control strategies around targeting hotspots.

Background Understanding the relationship between malaria infection risk and disease outcomes represents a fundamental component of morbidity and mortality burden estimations. Contemporary data on severe malaria risks among populations of different parasite exposures are scarce. Using surveillance data, we compared rates of paediatric malaria hospitalisation in areas of varying parasite exposure levels. Methods Surveillance data at five public hospitals; Jinja, Mubende, Kabale, Tororo, and Apac were assembled among admissions aged 1 month to 14 years between 2017 and 2018. The address of each admission was used to define a local catchment population where national census data was used to define person-year-exposure to risk. Within each catchment, historical infection prevalence was assembled from previously published data and current infection prevalence defined using 33 population-based school surveys among 3400 children. Poisson regression was used to compute the overall and site-specific incidences with 95% confidence intervals. Results Both current and historical Plasmodium falciparum prevalence varied across the five sites. Current prevalence ranged from Conclusion Malaria hospitalisation rates remain high in Uganda particularly among young children. The incidence of hospitalized malaria in different locations in Uganda appears to be influenced by past parasite exposure, immune acquisition, and current risks of infection. Interruption of transmission through vector control could influence age-specific severe malaria risk.

Background Malaria transmission has recently fallen in many parts of Africa, but systematic descriptions of infection and disease across all age groups are rare. Here, an epidemiological investigation of parasite prevalence, the incidence of fevers associated with infection, severe hospitalized disease and mortality among children older than 6 months and adults on the Kenyan coast is presented. Methods A prospective fever surveillance was undertaken at 6 out-patients (OPD) health-facilities between March 2018 and February 2019. Four community-based, cross sectional surveys of fever history and infection prevalence were completed among randomly selected homestead members from the same communities. Paediatric and adult malaria at Kilifi county hospital was obtained for the 12 months period. Rapid Diagnostic Tests (CareStart™ RDT) to detect HRP2-specific to Plasmodium falciparum was used in the community and the OPD, and microscopy in the hospital. Crude and age-specific incidence rates were computed using Poisson regression. Results Parasite prevalence gradually increased from childhood, reaching 12% by 9 years of age then declining through adolescence into adulthood. The incidence rate of RDT positivity in the OPD followed a similar trend to that of infection prevalence in the community. The incidence of hospitalized malaria from the same community was concentrated among children aged 6 months to 4 years (i.e. 64% and 70% of all hospitalized and severe malaria during the 12 months of surveillance, respectively). Only 3.7% (12/316) of deaths were directly attributable to malaria. Malaria mortality was highest among children aged 6 months–4 years at 0.57 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.2, 1.2). Severe malaria and death from malaria was negligible above 15 years of age. Conclusion Under conditions of low transmission intensity, immunity to disease and the fatal consequences of infection appear to continue to be acquired in childhood and faster than anti-parasitic immunity. There was no evidence of an emerging significant burden of severe malaria or malaria mortality among adults. This is contrary to current modelled approaches to disease burden estimation in Africa and has important implications for the targeting of infection prevention strategies based on chemoprevention or vector control.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2019.02480.].

Background Malaria transmission intensity is heterogeneous, complicating the implementation of malaria control interventions. We provide a description of the spatial micro-epidemiology of symptomatic malaria and asymptomatic parasitaemia in multiple sites. Methods We assembled data from 19 studies conducted between 1996 and 2015 in seven countries of sub-Saharan Africa with homestead-level geospatial data. Data from each site were used to quantify spatial autocorrelation and examine the temporal stability of hotspots. Parameters from these analyses were examined to identify trends over varying transmission intensity. Results Significant hotspots of malaria transmission were observed in most years and sites. The risk ratios of malaria within hotspots were highest at low malaria positive fractions (MPFs) and decreased with increasing MPF (p

Background Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study. Methods We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization–defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for “confirmed” bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid culture or polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) compared to “RSV pneumonia” (nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal or induced sputum PCR-positive without confirmed/suspected bacterial pneumonia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of elevated CRP in distinguishing these cases. Results Among 601 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–negative tested controls, 3% had CRP ≥40 mg/L. Among 119 HIV-negative cases with confirmed bacterial pneumonia, 77% had CRP ≥40 mg/L compared with 17% of 556 RSV pneumonia cases. The ROC analysis produced an area under the curve of 0.87, indicating very good discrimination; a cut-point of 37.1 mg/L best discriminated confirmed bacterial pneumonia (sensitivity 77%) from RSV pneumonia (specificity 82%). CRP ≥100 mg/L substantially improved specificity over CRP ≥40 mg/L, though at a loss to sensitivity. Conclusions Elevated CRP was positively associated with confirmed bacterial pneumonia and negatively associated with RSV pneumonia in PERCH. CRP may be useful for distinguishing bacterial from RSV-associated pneumonia, although its role in discriminating against other respiratory viral-associated pneumonia needs further study.

The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study is the largest multicountry etiology study of pediatric pneumonia undertaken in the past 3 decades. The study enrolled 4232 hospitalized cases and 5325 controls over 2 years across 9 research sites in 7 countries in Africa and Asia. The volume and complexity of data collection in PERCH presented considerable logistical and technical challenges. The project chose an internet-based data entry system to allow real-time access to the data, enabling the project to monitor and clean incoming data and perform preliminary analyses throughout the study. To ensure high-quality data, the project developed comprehensive quality indicator, data query, and monitoring reports. Among the approximately 9000 cases and controls, analyzable laboratory results were available for ≥96% of core specimens collected. Selected approaches to data management in PERCH may be extended to the planning and organization of international studies of similar scope and complexity.

Summary Background Vitamin D deficiency is associated with non-communicable and infectious diseases, but the vitamin D status of African populations is not well characterised. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in children and adults living in Africa. Methods For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, African Journals Online, and African Index Medicus for studies on vitamin D prevalence, published from database inception to Aug 6, 2019, without language restrictions. We included all studies with measured serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations from healthy participants residing in Africa. We excluded case reports and case series, studies that measured 25(OH)D only after a clinical intervention, and studies with only a meeting abstract or unpublished material available. We used a standardised data extraction form to collect information from eligible studies; if the required information was not available in the published report, we requested raw data from the authors. We did a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain the pooled prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in African populations, with use of established cutoffs and mean 25(OH)D concentrations. We stratified meta-analyses by participant age group, geographical region, and residence in rural or urban areas. The study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018112030. Findings Our search identified 1692 studies, of which 129 studies with 21 474 participants from 23 African countries were included in the systematic review and 119 studies were included in the meta-analyses. The pooled prevalence of low vitamin D status was 18·46% (95% CI 10·66–27·78) with a cutoff of serum 25(OH)D concentration less than 30 nmol/L; 34·22% (26·22–43·68) for a cutoff of less than 50 nmol/L; and 59·54% (51·32–67·50) for a cutoff of less than 75 nmol/L. The overall mean 25(OH)D concentration was 67·78 nmol/L (95% CI 64·50–71·06). There was no evidence of publication bias, although heterogeneity was high (I2 ranged from 98·26% to 99·82%). Mean serum 25(OH)D concentrations were lower in populations living in northern African countries or South Africa compared with sub-Saharan Africa, in urban areas compared with rural areas, in women compared with men, and in newborn babies compared with their mothers. Interpretation The prevalence of vitamin D deficiency is high in African populations. Public health strategies in Africa should include efforts to prevent, detect, and treat vitamin D deficiency, especially in newborn babies, women, and urban populations. Funding Wellcome Trust and the DELTAS Africa Initiative.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age

Purpose: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is of increasing global concern, threatening to undermine recent progress in reducing child and neonatal mortality. Repurposing older antimicrobials is a prominent strategy to combat multidrug-resistant sepsis. A potential agent is fosfomycin, however, there is scarce data regarding its in vitro activity and pharmacokinetics in the paediatric population. Methodology: We analysed a contemporary, systematically collected archive of community-acquired (CA) and hospital-acquired (HA) paediatric Gram-negative bacteraemia isolates for their susceptibility to fosfomcyin. MICs were determined using agar serial dilution methods and validated by disk diffusion testing where breakpoints are available. Disk diffusion antimicrobial susceptibility testing was also conducted for current empirical therapies (ampicillin, gentamicin, ceftriaxone) and amikacin (proposed in the literature as a new combination empirical therapeutic option). Results: Fosfomycin was highly active against invasive Gram-negative isolates, including 90 % (202/224) of Enterobacteriaceae and 96 % (22/23) of Pseudomonas spp. Fosfomycin showed high sensitivity against both CA isolates (94 %, 142/151) and HA isolates (81 %, 78/96; P =0.0015). CA isolates were significantly more likely to be susceptible to fosfomycin than the current first-line empirical therapy (96 % vs 59 %, P Conclusion: Gram-negative paediatric bacteraemia isolates are highly susceptible to fosfomycin, which could be combined with aminoglycosides as a new, carbapenem-sparing regimen to achieve excellent coverage to treat antimicrobial-resistant neonatal and paediatric sepsis.

Contains fulltext : 215640.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) Background: Malaria elimination remains a priority research agenda with the need for interventions that reduce and/or block malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes. Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) are in development, most of which target the transmission stage (i.e., gametocyte) antigens Pfs230 and Pfs48/45. For these interventions to be implemented, there is a need to understand the naturally acquired immunity to gametocytes. Several studies have measured the prevalence of immune responses to Pfs230 and Pfs48/45 in populations in malaria-endemic areas. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of studies carried out in African populations that measured the prevalence of immune responses to the gametocyte antigens Pfs230 and Pfs48/45. We assessed seroprevalence of antibody responses to the two antigens and investigated the effects of covariates such as age, transmission intensity/endemicity, season, and parasite prevalence on the prevalence of these antibody responses by meta-regression. Results: We identified 12 studies covering 23 sites for inclusion in the analysis. We found that the range of reported seroprevalence to Pfs230 and Pfs48/45 varied widely across studies, from 0 to 64% for Pfs48/45 and from 6 to 72% for Pfs230. We also found a modest association between increased age and increased seroprevalence to Pfs230: adults were associated with higher seroprevalence estimates in comparison to children (beta coefficient 0.21, 95% CI: 0.05-0.38, p = 0.042). Methodological factors were the most significant contributors to heterogeneity between studies which prevented calculation of pooled prevalence estimates. Conclusions: Naturally acquired sexual stage immunity, as detected by antibodies to Pfs230 and Pfs48/45, was present in most studies analyzed. Significant between-study heterogeneity was seen, and methodological factors were a major contributor to this, and prevented further analysis of epidemiological and biological factors. This demonstrates a need for standardized protocols for conducting and reporting seroepidemiological analyses.

INTRODUCTION:Malaria surveillance is a key pillar in the control of malaria in Africa. The value of using routinely collected data from health facilities to define malaria risk at community levels remains poorly defined. METHODS:Four cross-sectional parasite prevalence surveys were undertaken among residents at 36 enumeration zones in Kilifi county on the Kenyan coast and temporally and spatially matched to fever surveillance at 6 health facilities serving the same communities over 12 months. The age-structured functional form of the relationship between test positivity rate (TPR) and community-based parasite prevalence (PR) was explored through the development of regression models fitted by alternating the linear, exponential and polynomial terms for PR. The predictive ranges of TPR were explored for PR endemicity risk groups of control programmatic value using cut-offs of low (PR RESULTS:Among 28,134 febrile patients encountered for malaria diagnostic testing in the health facilities, 12,143 (43.2%: 95% CI: 42.6%, 43.7%) were positive. The overall community PR was 9.9% (95% CI: 9.2%, 10.7%) among 6,479 participants tested for malaria. The polynomial model was the best fitting model for the data that described the algebraic relationship between TPR and PR. In this setting, a TPR of ≥ 49% in all age groups corresponded to an age-standardized PR of ≥ 30%, while a TPR of < 40% corresponded to an age-standardized PR of < 5%. CONCLUSION:A non-linear relationship was observed between the relative change in TPR and changes in the PR, which is likely to have important implications for malaria surveillance programs, especially at the extremes of transmission. However, larger, more spatially diverse data series using routinely collected TPR data matched to community-based infection prevalence data are required to explore the more practical implications of using TPR as a replacement for community PR.

Background Use of bednets reduces malaria morbidity and mortality. In Kilifi, Kenya, there was a mass distribution of free nets to children 2500 parasitemia per μl) among children