1. Identifying adolescents at risk for depression: Assessment of a global prediction model in the Great Smoky Mountains Study
- Author
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Arthur Caye, Lauro E. Marchionatti, Rivka Pereira, Helen L. Fisher, Brandon A. Kohrt, Valeria Mondelli, Ellen McGinnis, William E. Copeland, and Christian Kieling
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Adult ,Cohort Studies ,Depressive Disorder, Major ,Young Adult ,Psychiatry and Mental health ,Adolescent ,Depression ,Risk Factors ,Humans ,Glucuronates ,Disaccharides ,Article ,Biological Psychiatry - Abstract
BACKGROUND. The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) has been externally assessed in samples from four continents, but North America is lacking. Our aim here was to evaluate the performance of the IDEA-RS in predicting future onset of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) among adolescents from the United States of America. METHODS. We applied the intercept and weights of the original IDEA-RS model developed in Brazil to the Great Smoky Mountains Study (GSMS) sample to generate individual probabilities for each participant at age 15 (N = 1029). We then evaluated the performance of such predictions against the diagnosis of MDD at age 19 using simple, case-mix corrected and refitted models. Furthermore, we compared how prioritizing the information provided by parents or by adolescents affected performance. RESULTS. The IDEA-RS exhibited a C-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI 0.53–0.74) to predict MDD in the GSMS when applying uncorrected weights. Case-mix corrected and refitted models enhanced performance to 0.69 and 0.67, respectively. No significant difference was found in performance by prioritizing the reports of adolescents or their parents. CONCLUSION. The IDEA-RS was able to parse out adolescents at risk for a later onset of depression in the GSMS cohort with above chance discrimination. The IDEA-RS has now showed above-chance performance in five continents.
- Published
- 2022
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