Leticia Avila-Burgos, Mahdi Safdarian, Devina Nand, Tim Driscoll, David C. Schwebel, Andrew T Olagunju, Saeid Safiri, Vasily Vlassov, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Jost B. Jonas, Reyna A Gutiérrez, Delia Hendrie, Fentaw Tadese, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Bach Xuan Tran, Mekonnen Sisay, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Tommi Vasankari, Kyle J Foreman, Kristopher J. Krohn, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Christian Kieling, Nadia Akseer, Maheswar Satpathy, Reza Assadi, Christopher J L Murray, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Rakhi Dandona, Sudha Jayaraman, Rintaro Mori, Mustafa Z. Younis, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Ashish Awasthi, Amit Arora, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Alan D. Lopez, Masoud Behzadifar, Ibrahim A Khalil, G Anil Kumar, George C Patton, Nancy Fullman, Nigussie Tadesse Sharew, André Faro, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Benn Sartorius, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Young-Ho Khang, Rajesh Sagar, Martha Híjar, Florian Fischer, Suliman Alghnam, Michael Kutz, Valery L. Feigin, Raimundas Lunevicius, Suzanne Polinder, Bryan L. Sykes, Van C. Lansingh, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mamta Swaroop, Jasvinder A. Singh, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Spencer L. James, Alireza Esteghamati, Theo Vos, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Soewarta Kosen, Kerrie E. Doyle, Michael R. Phillips, Amaha Kahsay, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Samath D Dharmaratne, James R. Bennett, Rohan Borschmann, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Joseph S Salama, Salman Rawaf, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Heidi J. Larson, Ted R. Miller, Caitlin Hawley, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Katya Anne Shackelford, Lalit Dandona, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Aman Yesuf Endries, Guilherme Borges, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Soraya Seedat, Paul S. F. Yip, Juan Sanabria, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Farshad Pourmalek, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mahfuzar Rahman, Richard Matzopoulos, Richard C. Franklin, Huyen Phuc Do, Mostafa Qorbani, Eric L. Ding, Mark A. Stokes, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, Stephen S Lim, Tung Thanh Tran, Dan J. Stein, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mohsen Naghavi, Vegard Skirbekk, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Walter Mendoza, Arebu Issa Bilal, Pengpeng Ye, Shai Linn, Ali H. Mokdad, Alexandra Brazinova, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Ashish Bhalla, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, David Teye Doku, Ivy Shiue, Farshad Farzadfar, Shafiu Mohammed, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Khurshid Alam, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Dumessa Edessa, Quyen Nguyen, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Paul I. Dargan, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, David Laith Rawaf, Zoubida Zaidi, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Meysam Behzadifar, Josep Maria Haro, Ziad El-Khatib, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Laurie B. Marczak, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Andrea Werdecker, Megha Arora, Neal D. Futran, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Diego De Leo, Faris Lami, Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli, Amir Kasaeian, Peter Memiah, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Till Bärnighausen, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Global Burden Dis 2016 Injury Col, Universitat de Barcelona, and Public Health
IMPORTANCE: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. EXPOSURES: Firearm ownership and access. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. RESULTS: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P