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BACKGROUND: Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule.METHODS: In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born.FINDINGS: Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts.INTERPRETATION: Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India.FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background In the Netherlands, the bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been offered to preadolescent girls via the National Immunization Program in a 2-dose schedule since 2014. The current study estimates vaccine effectiveness (VE) against HPV infections up to 4 years postvaccination among girls eligible for routine 2-dose immunization. Methods A cohort study (HAVANA2) was used in which participants annually filled out an online questionnaire and provided a vaginal self-sample for determination of HPV by the SPF10-LiPA25 assay, able to detect 25 HPV types. VE against incident type-specific infections and pooled outcomes was estimated by a Cox proportional hazards model with shared frailty between the HPV types. Results In total, 2027 girls were included in the study, 1098 (54.2%) of whom were vaccinated with 2 doses. Highest incidence rate was 5.0/1000 person-years (HPV-51) among vaccinated participants and 9.1/1000 person-years (HPV-74) among unvaccinated participants. Adjusted pooled VE was 84.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.0%–96.5%) against incident HPV-16/18 infections and 86.5% (95% CI, 39.5%–97.08%) against cross-protective types HPV-31/33/45. Conclusions Four years postvaccination, 2 doses of bivalent HPV vaccine were effective in the prevention of incident HPV-16/18 infections and provided cross-protection to HPV-31/33/45. Our VE estimates rival those from 3-dose schedules, indicating comparable protection by 2-dose schedules.

Methylation of host-cell deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) has been proposed as a promising biomarker for triage of high-risk (hr) human papillomavirus (HPV) positive women at screening. Our study aims to validate recently identified host-cell DNA methylation markers for triage in an hrHPV-positive cohort derived from primary HPV-based cervical screening in The Netherlands. Methylation markers ASCL1, LHX8, ST6GALNAC5, GHSR, ZIC1 and SST were evaluated relative to the ACTB reference gene by multiplex quantitative methylation-specific PCR (qMSP) in clinician-collected cervical samples (n = 715) from hrHPV-positive women (age 29-60 years), who were enrolled in the Dutch IMPROVE screening trial (NTR5078). Primary clinical end-point was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3) or cancer (CIN3+). The single-marker and bi-marker methylation classifiers developed for CIN3 detection in a previous series of hrHPV-positive clinician-collected cervical samples were applied. The diagnostic accuracy was visualised using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and assessed through area under the ROC curve (AUC). The performance of the methylation markers to detect CIN3+ was determined using the predefined threshold calibrated at 70% clinical specificity. Individual methylation makers showed good performance for CIN3+ detection, with highest AUC for ASCL1 (0.844) and LHX8 (0.830). Combined as a bi-marker panel with predefined threshold, ASCL1/LHX8 yielded a CIN3+ sensitivity of 76.9% (70/91; 95% CI 68.3-85.6%) at a specificity of 74.5% (465/624; 95% CI 71.1-77.9%). In conclusion, our study shows that the individual host-cell DNA methylation classifiers and the bi-marker panel ASCL1/LHX8 have clinical utility for the detection of CIN3+ in hrHPV-positive women invited for routine screening.

Background: Quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome from the perspective of patients and their caregivers, in both dementia and pre-dementia stages.1 Yet, little is known about the long-term changes in QoL over time.2 We aimed to compare the trajectories of the QoL between amyloid-positive and amyloid-negative patients along the Alzheimer’s disease (AD) continuum of cognitively normal to dementia. Method: In this longitudinal study, we included n = 447 (age 61.6±6.6, n(40%)F, Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) 29(27-29), 23% amyloid-positive) patients with Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD), n = 276 (age 64.6±7.0, n(33%F), MMSE 27(25-28), 52% amyloid-positive) patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and n = 417 (age 64.4±7.0, n(51%F), MMSE 23 (19-25), all amyloid-positive) with AD dementia from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort. We used linear mixed-effect models (LMM) to compare QoL trajectories of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L) and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) between 1) amyloid-positive and amyloid-negative SCD or MCI patients and 2) amyloid-positive SCD, MCI, and dementia patients. The models were adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), education and EQ-5D scale (3 or 5 level). Result: In SCD, amyloid-positive participants had a higher VAS at baseline, but showed a steeper decline over time in EQ-5D and VAS than amyloid-negative participants (figure 1). Also in MCI, amyloid-positive patients had higher QoL at baseline, but subsequently showed a steeper decline in QoL over time compared to amyloid-negative patients. When we compared amyloid-positive patients along the Alzheimer continuum, we found no difference between SCD, MCI or dementia in baseline QoL, but QoL decreased at a faster rate in the dementia stage compared with the pre-dementia stages of SCD and MCI (figure 2). When we additionally adjusted for covariates in model 2, the effects remained. Conclusion: QoL decreased at a faster rate over time in amyloid-positive SCD or MCI patients than amyloid-negative patients. QoL decreases over time along the entire continuum of AD of SCD, MCI and dementia, with the strongest decrease in dementia patients.

Background Patients and caregivers express a desire for accurate prognostic information about time to institutionalization and mortality. Previous studies predicting institutionalization and mortality focused on the dementia stage. However, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is characterized by a long pre-dementia stage. Therefore, we developed prediction models to predict institutionalization and mortality along the AD continuum of cognitively normal to dementia. Methods This study included SCD/MCI patients (subjective cognitive decline (SCD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI)) and patients with AD dementia from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort. We developed internally and externally validated prediction models with biomarkers and without biomarkers, stratified by dementia status. Determinants were selected using backward selection (p Results We included n=1418 SCD/MCI patients (n=123 died, n=74 were institutionalized) and n=1179 patients with AD dementia (n=413 died, n=453 were institutionalized). For both SCD/MCI and dementia stages, the models for institutionalization and mortality included after backward selection clinical characteristics, imaging, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers. In SCD/MCI, the Harrell’s C-statistics of the models were 0.81 (model without biomarkers: 0.76) for institutionalization and 0.79 (model without biomarker: 0.76) for mortality. In AD-dementia, the Harrell’s C-statistics of the models were 0.68 (model without biomarkers: 0.67) for institutionalization and 0.65 (model without biomarker: 0.65) for mortality. Models based on data from amyloid-positive patients only had similar discrimination. Conclusions We constructed prediction models to predict institutionalization and mortality with good accuracy for SCD/MCI patients and moderate accuracy for patients with AD dementia. The developed prediction models can be used to provide patients and their caregivers with prognostic information on time to institutionalization and mortality along the cognitive continuum of AD.

IntroductionAnal cancer precursors, or high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (HGAIN), are highly prevalent in HIV-seropositive (HIV+) men who have sex with men (MSM). Around 30% of lesions regress within 1 year, but current histopathological assessment is unable to distinguish between HGAIN likely to regress and HGAIN likely to persist or progress to cancer. We aim to assess if host cell DNA methylation markers can predict regression of HGAIN, thus determining the need for immediate treatment or active surveillance. This could reduce overtreatment and the associated anal and psycho-sexual morbidity.Methods and analysisThis is an active surveillance cohort study in three centres located in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in 200 HIV+ MSM diagnosed with HGAIN. Participants will not be treated, but closely monitored during 24 months of follow-up with 6 monthly visits including cytology, and high-resolution anoscopy with biopsies. The primary study endpoint is histopathological regression of each baseline HGAIN lesion at the end of the study. Regression is defined as ≤low grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia in the exit biopsy at 24 months. Regression proportions in lesions with low versus high methylation levels (ASCL1, ZNF582), other biomarkers (HPV genotype, HPV-E4, p16INK4A, Ki-67) and immunological markers at baseline will be compared. Main secondary endpoints are the histological and clinical outcome (ie, the number of octants affected by HGAIN) of each baseline HGAIN lesion and overall HGAIN disease (i.e., all lesions combined) after each visit. The health-related quality of life of the study group will be compared with that of a control group of 50 HIV+ MSM receiving regular HGAIN treatment.Ethics and disseminationEthics approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Board of the Academic Medical Center (Amsterdam, The Netherlands; reference no. 2021_099). Participants are required to provide written informed consent. Findings will be disseminated through publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals and presentations at international scientific conferences; dissemination to policy makers and the target patient group will be achieved through our (inter-)national network, professional associations and collaboration with a patient representative organisation.Trial registration numberNL9664.

INTRODUCTION: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) yield the highest level of evidence but are notoriously difficult to perform in surgery. Surgical RCTs may be hampered by slow accrual, the surgical learning curve, and lack of financial support. Alternative RCT designs such as stepped-wedge randomized controlled trials (SW-RCTs), registry-based randomized controlled trials (RB-RCTs), and trials-within-cohorts (TwiCs) may overcome several of these difficulties. This review provides an overview of alternative RCT designs used in surgical research. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central for surgical SW-RCTs, RB-RCTs, and TwiCs. A surgical RCT was defined as a randomized trial that studied interventions in patients undergoing general surgery, regardless of the affiliation of the corresponding author. Exponential regression analysis was performed to assess time trends. RESULTS: Overall, 41 surgical RCTs using alternative designs were identified, including 17 published final RCT reports and 24 published protocols of ongoing RCTs. These included 25 SW-RCTs (61%), 13 RB-RCTs (32%), and 3 TwiCs (7%). Most of these RCTs were performed in Europe (63%) and within gastrointestinal/oncological surgery (41%). The total number of RCTs using alternative designs exponentially increased over the last 7 years ( P

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening tests that identify DNA of the main causal agent, high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, are more protective than cervical cytology. We systematically reviewed the literature to assess whether tests targeting high-risk HPV (hrHPV) mRNA are as accurate and effective as HPV DNA-based screening tests.METHODS: We did a systematic review to assess the cross-sectional clinical accuracy to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) or 3 or worse (CIN3+) of hrHPV mRNA versus DNA testing in primary cervical cancer screening; the longitudinal clinical performance of cervical cancer screening using hrHPV mRNA versus DNA assays; and the clinical accuracy of hrHPV mRNA testing on self-collected versus clinician-collected samples. We identified relevant studies published before Aug 1, 2021, through a search of Medline (PubMed), Embase, and CENTRAL. Eligible studies had to contain comparative data addressing one of our three clinical questions. Aggregated data were extracted from selected reports or requested from study authors if necessary. QUADAS and ROBINS-1 tools were used to assess the quality of diagnostic test accuracy studies and cohort studies. To assess cross-sectional clinical accuracy of mRNA testing versus DNA testing and clinical accuracy of hrHPV mRNA testing on self-collected versus clinician collected samples, we applied meta-analytical methods for comparison of diagnostic tests. To assess the longitudinal clinical performance of cervical cancer screening using hrHPV mRNA versus DNA assays, we compared the longitudinal sensitivity of mRNA tests and validated DNA tests for CIN3+ and the relative detection of CIN3+ among women who screened negative for hrHPV mRNA or DNA (both used as measures of safety) at baseline and pooled estimates by years of follow-up. A random-effect model for pooling ratios of proportions or risks was used to summarise longitudinal performance.FINDINGS: For the hrHPV mRNA testing with APTIMA HPV Test (APTIMA), the cross-sectional accuracy could be compared with DNA assays on clinician-collected samples in eight studies; longitudinal performance was compared in four studies; and accuracy on self-samples was assessed in five studies. Few reports were retrieved for other mRNA assays, precluding their evaluation in meta-analyses. Compared with validated DNA assays, APTIMA was similarly sensitive (relative sensitivity 0·98 [95% CI 0·95-1·01]) and slightly more specific (1·03 [1·02-1·04]) for CIN2+. The relative sensitivity for CIN3+ was 0·98 (95% CI 0·95-1·01). The longitudinal relative sensitivity for CIN3+ of APTIMA compared with DNA assays assessed over 4-7 years ranged at the study level from 0·91 to 1·05 and in the pooled analysis between 0·95 and 0·98, depending on timepoint, with CIs including or close to unity. The detection rate ratios between 4 and 10 years after baseline negative mRNA versus negative DNA screening were imprecise and heterogeneous among studies, but summary ratios did not differ from unity. In self-collected samples, APTIMA was less sensitive for CIN2+ (relative cross-sectional sensitivity 0·84 [0·74-0·96]) but similarly specific (relative specificity 0·96 [0·91-1·01]) compared with clinician-collected samples.INTERPRETATION: HrHPV RNA testing with APTIMA had similar cross-sectional sensitivity for CIN2+ and CIN3+ and slightly higher specificity than DNA tests. Four studies with 4-7 years of follow-up showed heterogeneous safety outcomes. One study with up to 10 years of follow-up showed no differences in cumulative detection of CIN3+ after negative mRNA versus DNA screening. APTIMA could be accepted for primary cervical cancer screening on clinician-collected cervical samples at intervals of around 5 years. APTIMA is less sensitive on self-collected samples than clinician-collected samples.FUNDING: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation of the European Commission, through the RISCC Network, WHO, Haute Autorité de la Santé, European Society of Gynaecological Oncology, and the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment.

The licensed HPV vaccines are highly efficacious and induce high levels of neutralizing antibody levels, the assumed mediators of protection. However, a correlate of protection against HPV is lacking, and the evidence is still limited as to long-term persistence of antibodies, especially following reduced dosing schedules. The World Health Organization (WHO) urges immunization of young girls as part of the strategy to eliminate cervical cancer, thus long-lasting protection is required. The current review describes long-term follow-up regarding vaccine-induced seropositivity and antibody level development following the different vaccines and dosing schedules. Implications and opportunities of long-term vaccine-induced immune responses are discussed, such as the gaps in monitoring of long-term immunogenicity, the possibilities of reduced dosing schedules, and the importance of evidence for durable immunity.

Multi-arm multi-stage clinical trials in which more than two drugs are simultaneously investigated provide gains over separate single- or two-arm trials. In this paper we propose a generic Bayesian adaptive decision-theoretic design for multi-arm multi-stage clinical trials with K ([Formula: see text]) arms. The basic idea is that after each stage a decision about continuation of the trial and accrual of patients for an additional stage is made on the basis of the expected reduction in loss. For this purpose, we define a loss function that incorporates the patient accrual costs as well as costs associated with an incorrect decision at the end of the trial. An attractive feature of our loss function is that its estimation is computationally undemanding, also when K > 2. We evaluate the frequentist operating characteristics for settings with a binary outcome and multiple experimental arms. We consider both the situation with and without a control arm. In a simulation study, we show that our design increases the probability of making a correct decision at the end of the trial as compared to nonadaptive designs and adaptive two-stage designs.

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs achieve substantial population-level impact, with effects extending beyond protection of vaccinated individuals. We assessed trends in HPV prevalence up to 8 years postvaccination among men and women in the Netherlands, where bivalent HPV vaccination, targeting HPV types 16/18, has been offered to (pre)adolescent girls since 2009 with moderate vaccination coverage. Methods We used data from the PASSYON study, a survey initiated in 2009 (prevaccination) and repeated biennially among 16- to 24-year-old visitors of sexual health centers. We studied genital HPV positivity from 2009 to 2017 among women, heterosexual men, and unvaccinated women using Poisson generalized estimating equation models, adjusted for individual- and population-level confounders. Trends were studied for 25 HPV types detected by the SPF10-LiPA25 platform. Results A total of 6354 women (64.7% self-reported unvaccinated) and 2414 heterosexual men were included. Percentual declines in vaccine types HPV-16/18 were observed for all women (12.6% per year [95% confidence interval {CI}, 10.6–14.5]), heterosexual men (13.0% per year [95% CI, 8.3–17.5]), and unvaccinated women (5.4% per year [95% CI, 2.9–7.8]). We observed significant declines in HPV-31 (all women and heterosexual men), HPV-45 (all women), and in all high-risk HPV types pooled (all women and heterosexual men). Significant increases were observed for HPV-56 (all women) and HPV-52 (unvaccinated women). Conclusions Our results provide evidence for first-order herd effects among heterosexual men against HPV-16/18 and cross-protective types. Additionally, we show second-order herd effects against vaccine types among unvaccinated women. These results are promising regarding population-level and clinical impact of girls-only bivalent HPV vaccination in a country with moderate vaccine uptake., This study presents trends in human papillomavirus (HPV) positivity since girls-only HPV vaccine introduction in the Netherlands, with moderate vaccine uptake. We show declining prevalences of vaccine types HPV-16/18 in heterosexual men and unvaccinated women, and of cross-protective types in heterosexual men.

Background: In human papillomavirus (HPV)-based cervical screening programs, management of HPV-positive women with normal cytology is debated. Longitudinal information on HPV type persistence may be employed for risk stratification. Methods: We assessed the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) after repeatedly testing positive for the same HPV type(s) in the randomized population-based screening study Amsterdam (POBASCAM). We compared 18-month CIN3+ risks in HPV-positive women (intervention, n = 1,066) to those in HPV-positive/cytology-negative women who tested HPV-positive in the next screening round (control, n = 111) five years later, stratified for HPV type concordance. Results: The 18-month CIN3+ risk was 15% in HPV-positive women in the intervention group, 40% in the control group after two-round type concordance (relative risk 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9–3.4), and 20% in the control group after a type switch (1.3, 0.5–3.2). The relative increase in CIN3+ risk after two-round type concordance was similar in Conclusions: Five-year HPV type concordance signals high CIN3+ risk and warrants referral for colposcopy without additional cytology triage. Impact: HPV screening programs become highly efficient when HPV-positive women with negative triage testing at baseline are offered repeat HPV genotyping after five years.

Background For the prevention of chemotherapy‐induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) during the delayed phase (24–120 hours) after moderately emetogenic chemotherapy (MEC), the use of 3‐day dexamethasone (DEX) is often recommended. This study compared the efficacy and safety of two DEX‐sparing regimens with 3‐day DEX, focusing on delayed nausea. Patients and Methods This open‐label, randomized, phase III study was designed to demonstrate noninferiority of two DEX‐sparing regimens: ondansetron + DEX on day 1 + metoclopramide on days 2–3 (MCP arm), and palonosetron + DEX on day 1 (PAL arm) versus ondansetron on day 1 + DEX on days 1–3 (DEX arm) in chemotherapy‐naïve patients receiving MEC. Primary efficacy endpoint was total control (TC; no emetic episodes, no use of rescue medication, no nausea) in the delayed phase. Noninferiority was defined as a lower 95% CI greater than the noninferiority margin set at −20%. Secondary endpoints included no vomiting, no rescue medication, no (significant) nausea, impact of CINV on quality of life, and antiemetics‐associated side effects. Results Treatment arms were comparable for 189 patients analyzed: predominantly male (55.7%), median age 65.0 years, colorectal cancer (85.7%), and oxaliplatin‐based chemotherapy (81.5%). MCP demonstrated noninferiority to DEX for delayed TC (MCP 56.1% vs. DEX 50.0%; 95% CI, −11.3%, 23.5%). PAL also demonstrated noninferiority to DEX (PAL 55.6% vs. DEX 50.0%; 95% CI, −12.0%, 23.2%). There were no statistically significant differences for all secondary endpoints between treatment arms. Conclusion This study showed that DEX‐sparing regimens are noninferior to multiple‐day DEX in terms of delayed TC rate in patients undergoing MEC. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier. NCT02135510. Implications for Practice Chemotherapy‐induced nausea and vomiting (CINV) in the delayed phase (24–120 hours after chemotherapy) remains one of the most troublesome adverse effects associated with cancer treatment. In particular, delayed nausea is often poorly controlled. The role of dexamethasone (DEX) in the prevention of delayed nausea after moderately emetogenic chemotherapy (MEC) is controversial. This study is the first to include nausea assessment as a part of the primary study outcome to better gauge the effectiveness of CINV control and patients’ experience. Results show that a DEX‐sparing strategy does not result in any significant loss of overall antiemetic control: DEX‐sparing strategies incorporating palonosetron or multiple‐day metoclopramide are safe and at least as effective as standard treatment with a 3‐day DEX regimen with ondansetron in controlling delayed CINV—and nausea in particular—following MEC., Chemotherapy‐induced nausea and vomiting in the delayed phase after chemotherapy are troublesome adverse effects associated with cancer treatment. This article compares the efficacy and safety of two dexamethasone‐sparing regimens with multiple‐day dexamethasone, focusing on delayed nausea.

Cervical screening can prevent cancer by detection and treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3 (CIN2/3). Screening also results in considerable overtreatment because many CIN2/3 lesions show spontaneous regression when left untreated. In this multicenter longitudinal cohort study of women with untreated CIN2/3, the prognostic value ofWomen with CIN2/3 were prospectively followed for 24 months. Surgical excision was replaced by a wait-and-see policy.One hundred fourteen women (median age, 30 years; range, 20-53 years) were included, 80 of whom were diagnosed with CIN2 and 34 with CIN3. During the study, 65.8% of women (75/114) did not receive surgical treatment. Women with aMost women with untreated CIN2/3 and a negative baseline

Birth cohorts vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) are now entering cervical cancer screening. Assessment of (pre)cancer (CIN3+) risk is needed to assess the residual screening need in vaccinated women. We estimated the lifetime (screen‐detected) CIN3+ risk under five‐yearly primary HPV screening between age 30 and 60, using HPV genotyping and histology data of 21,287 women participating in a screening trial with two HPV‐based screening rounds, 5 years apart. The maximum follow‐up after an HPV‐positive test was 9 years. We re‐estimated the CIN3+ risk after projecting direct vaccine efficacy for the bivalent and the nonavalent HPV vaccines, assuming life‐long protection. The lifetime CIN3+ risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.5‐4.9) and declined by 53.5% and 70.5% after bivalent vaccination without and with cross‐protection, respectively, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 1.9% (1.4‐2.4) and 1.2% (0.9‐1.5). The CIN3+ risk declined by 88.5% after nonavalent vaccination, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 0.5% (0.2‐0.7). The latter risk increased to 1.6% when vaccine protection only lasted until the first screening round at age 30. Among HPV‐positive women with abnormal adjunct cytology, the nine‐year CIN3+ risk was 16.9% (8.7‐32.4) after nonavalent vaccination. In conclusion, HPV vaccination will lead to a strong decline in the lifetime CIN3+ risk and the remaining absolute CIN3+ risk will be very low. Primary HPV testing combined with adjunct cytology at five‐year intervals still seems feasible even after nonavalent vaccination, although unlikely to be cost‐effective. Our results support a de‐intensification of screening programs in settings with high vaccination coverage., What's new? Human papillomavirus (HPV)‐based screening and vaccination are key strategies for early detection and prevention of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and cancer (CIN3+). Here the authors estimated the lifetime screen‐detected CIN3+ risk expected under different HPV vaccination scenarios using a novel statistical, data‐driven approach that deals with multiple‐type HPV infections. The model estimated that the lifetime CIN3+ risks under five‐yearly primary HPV screening will become very low in vaccinated women, in particular when protection is life‐long and provided beyond genotypes 16 and 18. These CIN3+ risks are important when defining new extended screening intervals for vaccinated cohorts.

Background To optimize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and surveillance, information regarding the time-dependent risk of advanced adenomas (AA) to develop into CRC is crucial. However, since AA are removed after diagnosis, the time from AA to CRC cannot be observed in an ethically acceptable manner. We propose a statistical method to indirectly infer this time in a progressive three-state disease model using surveillance data. Methods Sixteen models were specified, with and without covariates. Parameters of the parametric time-to-event distributions from the adenoma-free state (AF) to AA and from AA to CRC were estimated simultaneously, by maximizing the likelihood function. Model performance was assessed via simulation. The methodology was applied to a random sample of 878 individuals from a Norwegian adenoma cohort. Results Estimates of the parameters of the time distributions are consistent and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) have good coverage. For the Norwegian sample (AF: 78%, AA: 20%, CRC: 2%), a Weibull model for both transition times was selected as the final model based on information criteria. The mean time among those who have made the transition to CRC since AA onset within 50 years was estimated to be 4.80 years (95% CI: 0; 7.61). The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC from AA was 13.8% (95% CI: 7.8%;23.8%) and 15.4% (95% CI: 8.2%;34.0%), respectively. Conclusions The time-dependent risk from AA to CRC is crucial to explain differences in the outcomes of microsimulation models used for the optimization of CRC prevention. Our method allows for improving models by the inclusion of data-driven time distributions.

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening programs still use one-size-fits-all protocols but efficiency and efficacy of programs may be improved by stratifying women based on previous screening results. Methods and findings We studied the association between cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cancer (CIN3+) and previous screening results in the Population-Based Screening Study Amsterdam (POBASCAM) trial, performed in the Netherlands in the setting of regular screening, where women aged from 29 to 61 years old were invited to cytology and HPV co-testing at enrolment in year 1999/2002 and at the next round in 2003/2007. We selected 18,448 women (9,293 from the intervention group and 9,155 from the control group) who tested HPV–negative in 2003/2007 and did not have cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse (CIN2+) or hysterectomy after enrolment. Follow-up was collected until 14 years after the 2003/2007 screen, covering 4 rounds of screening. Risk of CIN3+ and CIN2+ among women with an HPV–negative test, irrespective of previous round results and stratified according to previous round HPV and cytology results, were calculated by the Kaplan–Meier method. During 14 years of follow-up, 62 CIN3+ cases (24 in the intervention group and 38 in the control group) were detected. HPV–negative women had a 14-year CIN3+ risk of 0.48% (95% confidence interval 0.37 to 0.62) and CIN2+ risk of 1.17% (0.99 to 1.38). The CIN3+ risk among HPV–negative women was increased in women with a previous positive HPV test (2.36%, 1.20 to 4.63; p < 0.001) or co-test (1.68%, 0.87 to 3.20; p < 0.001) and, equivalently, decreased in women with a previous negative HPV test (0.43%, 0.33 to 0.57) or a negative co-test (0.43%, 0.33 to 0.57). The CIN3+ risk was not influenced by the previous cytology result. The CIN3+ risk among HPV–negative women was increased after both a previous HPV16–positive test (3.90%, 1.47 to 10.12; p < 0.001) and a previous HPV16–negative/HPVother–positive test (1.91%, 0.76 to 4.74; p = 0.002). For endpoint CIN2+ (147 cases), findings were similar except that the CIN2+ risk was increased after previous abnormal cytology (4.06%, 2.30 to 7.12; p < 0.001). The presented risk estimates were calculated by tracking histological results through the Dutch nationwide pathology archive (PALGA) and were not adjusted for non-compliance with the colposcopy referral advice. Conclusions HPV–negative women had an increased long-term risk of CIN3+ when the HPV test in the previous screening round was positive. This supports the implementation of risk-based intervals that depend on HPV results in the current and previous screening round. Trial registration POBASCAM trial, trial registration number ISRCTN20781131.

Before a new screening test can be used in routine screening, its performance needs to be compared to the standard screening test. This comparison is generally done in population screening trials with a screen-positive design where participants undergo one or both screening tests after which disease verification takes place for those positive on at least one screening test. We consider the randomized paired screen-positive design of Alonzo and Kittelson where participants are randomized to receive one of the two screening tests and only participants with a positive screening test subsequently receive the other screening test followed by disease verification. The tests are usually offered in an unblinded fashion in which case the screening uptake may differ between arms, in particular when one test is more burdensome than the other. When uptake is associated with disease, the estimator for the relative sensitivity derived by Alonzo and Kittelson may be biased and the type I error of the associated statistical test is no longer guaranteed to be controlled. We present methods for comparing sensitivities of screening tests in randomized paired screen-positive trials that are robust to differential screening uptake. In a simulation study, we show that our methods adequately control the type I error when screening uptake is associated with disease. We apply the developed methods to data from the IMPROVE trial, a nonblinded cervical cancer screening trial comparing the accuracy of HPV testing on self-collected versus provider-collected samples. In this trial, screening uptake was higher among participants randomized to self-collection.

Several countries offer HPV self-sampling for screening non-attendees. It is assumed that screening attendees also prefer self-sampling to clinician-based sampling, however, little research has been conducted with respect to this. Women participating in the IMPROVE-study were randomised (1:1) to self- or clinician-collected HPV testing, and HPV-positive women were retested using the other collection method. Three different questionnaires were sent out among a subset of participating women: Q1) HPV-positive women from both study groups were asked about their experiences with self-sampling and clinician-based sampling (n = 497); Q2) HPV-negative women from the self-sampling group were asked about their experiences with self-sampling (n = 2366); and Q3) HPV-negative women in the clinician-collection group were asked about their experiences with clinician-based sampling (n = 2092). Response rates ranged from 71.6 to 79.4%. Women reported significantly lower levels of shame, nervousness, discomfort and pain during self-sampling compared to clinician-based sampling. However, trust in correct sampling was significantly higher during clinician-based sampling. The majority of women in group Q1 preferred self-sampling (76.5%) to clinician-based sampling (11.9%) in future screening, while 11.6% of women reported to have no preference for either method. To conclude, women from a regular screening population have a positive attitude towards self-sampling but express some concerns with respect to accuracy. The majority prefers self-sampling to clinician-based sampling in future screening. Based on these results, a screening approach where women can choose for either self-sampling or clinician-based sampling seems highly justifiable.

Objectives The prognostic advantage of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) resulted in the initiation of treatment de-intensification studies. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported inferior survival of HPV-positive OPSCC treated with radiotherapy plus cetuximab compared to standard of care radiotherapy plus cisplatin. In this study we investigated whether the important role of cisplatin in the treatment of HPV-positive OPSCCs would also emerge from causal inference analyses of real-world data. Material and methods A retrospective cohort of 263 advanced-stage OPSCC-patients from 5 European clinics was studied, treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone or cisplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CRT) based on standard clinical indications. Causal inference was applied to adjust for treatment assignment, thereby simulating a randomized setting. Average treatment effect of concurrent cisplatin on overall survival (OS) probability was estimated using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Bayesian logistic regression. Results Significantly better survival probabilities were found for HPV-positive OPSCC treated with CRT compared to RT alone (3-year OS probability 0.961 versus 0.798, p = 0.008). Conclusion This study using causal inference of retrospective patient data confirms the important role of cisplatin in the treatment of HPV-positive OPSCC. Causal inference analyses of real-world data complements the evidence from the published RCTs.

Background Only clinically validated HPV assays can be accepted in cervical cancer screening. Objectives To update the list of high-risk HPV assays that fulfil the 2009 international validation criteria (Meijer-2009). Data Sources PubMed/Medline, Embase, Scopus, references from selected studies; published in January 2014-August 2020. Study eligibility criteria HPV test validation studies and primary screening studies, involving testing with an index HPV test and a comparator HPV test with reporting of disease outcome (occurrence of histologically confirmed cervical precancer [CIN2+]). Methods Overview tables of relative sensitivity and specificity, including non-inferiority statistics and test reproducibility; random-effect meta-analyses of the relative sensitivity and specificity for CIN2+ on index-vs comparator HPV tests. Participants Women participating in cervical cancer screening. Interventions Testing with an index and a comparator HPV test of clinician-collected cervical specimens and assessment of disease outcome ( Methods Assessment of relative clinical accuracy (including non-inferiority statistics index vs comparator assay) and test reproducibility; random effects meta-analyses of the relative sensitivity and specificity of index vs comparator tests. Results Seven hrHPV DNA tests consistently fulfilled all validation criteria in multiple studies using predefined test positivity cut-offs (Abbott RealTime High Risk HPV, Anyplex II HPV HR Detection, BD Onclarity HPV Assay, Cobas 4800 HPV Test, HPV-Risk Assay, PapilloCheck HPV-Screening Test and Xpert HPV). Another assay (Alinity m HR HPV Assay) was fully validated in one validation study. The newer Cobas 6800 HPV Test, was validated in two studies against Cobas 4800. Other tests partially fulfilled the international validation criteria (Cervista HPV HR Test, EUROArray HPV, Hybribio’s 14 High-Risk HPV, LMNX Genotyping Kit GP HPV, MALDI-TOF, RIATOL qPCR and a number of other in-house developed assays) since the non-inferior accuracy was reached after a posteriori cut-off optimisation, inconsistent accuracy findings in different studies, and/or insufficient reproducibility assessment. The APTIMA HPV Assay targeting E6/E7 mRNA of hrHPV was fully validated in one formal validation study and showed slightly lower pooled sensitivity but higher specificity than the standard comparator tests in seven screening studies. However, the current international validation criteria relate to DNA assays. The additional requirement for longitudinal performance data required for non-DNA based HPV assays was not assessed in this review. Conclusions Eleven hrHPV DNA assays fulfil all requirements for use in cervical cancer screening using clinician-collected specimens.

Background We aimed to derive an algorithm to define the optimal proportion of patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in whom cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing is of added prognostic value. Methods MCI patients were selected from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (n = 402). Three-year progression probabilities to dementia were predicted using previously published models with and without CSF data (amyloid-beta1-42 (Abeta), phosphorylated tau (p-tau)). We incrementally augmented the proportion of patients undergoing CSF, starting with the 10% patients with prognostic probabilities based on clinical data around the median (percentile 45–55), until all patients received CSF. The optimal proportion was defined as the proportion where the stepwise algorithm showed similar prognostic discrimination (Harrell’s C) and accuracy (three-year Brier scores) compared to CSF testing of all patients. We used the BioFINDER study (n = 221) for validation. Results The optimal proportion of MCI patients to receive CSF testing selected by the stepwise approach was 50%. CSF testing in only this proportion improved the performance of the model with clinical data only from Harrell’s C = 0.60, Brier = 0.198 (Harrell’s C = 0.61, Brier = 0.197 if the information on magnetic resonance imaging was available) to Harrell’s C = 0.67 and Brier = 0.190, and performed similarly to a model in which all patients received CSF testing. Applying the stepwise approach in the BioFINDER study would again select half of the MCI patients and yielded robust results with respect to prognostic performance. Interpretation CSF biomarker testing adds prognostic value in half of the MCI patients. As such, we achieve a CSF saving recommendation while simultaneously retaining optimal prognostic accuracy.

Summary Background In many European countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among girls has remained below target levels, supporting the scope for vaccination of boys. We aimed to investigate if sex-neutral HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective compared with girls-only vaccination at uptake levels equal to those among girls and under tender-based vaccination costs achieved throughout Europe. Methods We investigated the cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV vaccination in European tender-based settings. We applied a Bayesian synthesis framework for health economic evaluation to 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden), accommodating country-specific information on key epidemiological and economic parameters, and on current HPV vaccination programmes. We used projections from three independently developed HPV transmission models to tailor region-specific herd effects. The main outcome measures in the comparison of sex-neutral with girls-only vaccination were cancer cases prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as the cost in international dollars (I$) per life-year gained. Findings The total number of cancer cases to be prevented by vaccinating girls at currently realised vaccine uptake varied from 318 (95% CI 197–405) per cohort of 200 000 preadolescents (100 000 girls plus 100 000 boys) in Croatia (under 20% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine) to 1904 (1741–2101) in Estonia (under 70% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine). Vaccinating boys at equal coverage increased these respective numbers by 168 (95% CI 121–213) in Croatia and 467 (391–587) in Estonia. Sex-neutral vaccination was likely to be cost-effective, with ICERs of sex-neutral compared with girls-only vaccination varying from I$4300 per life-year gained in Latvia (95% credibility interval 3450–5160; 40% uptake) to I$25 720 per life-year gained in Spain (21 380–30 330; 80% uptake). At uniform 80% uptake, a favourable cost-effectiveness profile was retained for most of the countries investigated (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden). Interpretation Sex-neutral HPV vaccination is economically attractive in European tender-based settings. However, tendering mechanisms need to ensure that vaccination of boys will remain cost-effective at high vaccine uptake rates. Funding European Commission 7th Framework Programme and WHO.

Empirical evidence suggests that a fair proportion of dementia cases are preventable, that some preventive actions can be taken immediately, and others may soon be implemented. Primary prevention may target cognitively normal persons with modifiable risk factors through lifestyle and multiple domain interventions (including general cardiovascular health). While the effect on individuals may be modest, it might have a large societal impact by decreasing overall dementia incidence by up to 35%. Secondary prevention will target cognitively normal persons at high risk of dementia due to Alzheimer's disease pathology with future anti‐amyloid, anti‐tau, or other drugs. This approach is likely to have major benefits to both individuals and society. Memory clinics will need structural and functional changes to adapt to novel technologies and increased patients’ demands, and brand‐new services may need to be developed with specific skills on risk profiling, risk communication, and personalized risk reduction plans.

The risk of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) in patients with high‐grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) is considered lower in high‐grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) compared to differentiated VIN (dVIN), but studies are limited. Our study investigated both the incidence of high‐grade VIN and the cumulative incidence of VSCC in patients with HSIL and dVIN separately. A database of women diagnosed with high‐grade VIN between 1991 and 2011 was constructed with data from the Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA). The European standardized incidence rate (ESR) and VSCC risk were calculated, stratified for HSIL and dVIN. The effects of type of VIN (HSIL vs dVIN), age and lichen sclerosis (LS) were estimated by Cox regression. In total, 1148 patients were diagnosed with high‐grade VIN between 1991 and 2011. Between 1991‐1995 and 2006‐2011, the ESR of HSIL increased from 2.39 (per 100 000 woman‐years) to 3.26 and the ESR of dVIN increased from 0.02 to 0.08. The 10‐year cumulative VSCC risk was 10.3%; 9.7% for HSIL and 50.0% for dVIN (log rank P, What's new? High‐grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs) and differentiated vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (dVIN) are established risk factors for vulvar squamous cell carcinoma. Lesions classified as dVIN are less common than HSILs but potentially more aggressive. Our study, based on investigation of more than 1100 patients diagnosed with high‐grade VIN between 1991 and 2011, demonstrates a rising incidence of both HSIL and dVIN. Ten‐year cumulative risk of vulvar cancer was significantly greater for dVIN than HSIL. The findings highlight the importance of timely identification and classification of dVIN precancerous lesions and a potential need for risk stratification to prevent overtreatment in HSIL patients.

Background Treatment of delirium often includes haloperidol. Second‐generation antipsychotics like olanzapine have emerged as an alternative with possibly fewer side effects. The aim of this multicenter, phase III, randomized clinical trial was to compare the efficacy and tolerability of olanzapine with haloperidol for the treatment of delirium in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer. Materials and Methods Eligible adult patients (≥18 years) with advanced cancer and delirium (Delirium Rating Scale‐Revised‐98 [DRS‐R‐98] total score ≥17.75) were randomized 1:1 to receive either haloperidol or olanzapine (age‐adjusted, titratable doses). Primary endpoint was delirium response rate (DRR), defined as number of patients with DRS‐R‐98 severity score, Pharmacological interventions for the treatment of delirium in patients with cancer is controversial. This article compares olanzapine and haloperidol for the treatment of delirium in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer.

Contains fulltext : 229520.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access) BACKGROUND & AIMS: A low muscle mass before start of treatment and loss of muscle mass during chemotherapy is related to adverse outcomes in patients with cancer. In this randomized controlled trial, the effect of nutritional counseling on change in muscle mass and treatment outcome in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer during first-line chemotherapy was studied. METHODS: Patients scheduled for first-line chemotherapy (n = 107) were randomly assigned to individualized nutritional counseling by a dietitian (NC) or usual care (UC). NC was aimed at sufficient protein- and energy intake, supported by oral supplements or enteral feeding if indicated. Furthermore, physical activity was encouraged. Outcomes were assessed at baseline (T0) and the time of the first (T1) and second (T2) regular follow-up computed tomography scans. The proportion of patients with a clinically relevant decrease in skeletal muscle area of ≥6.0 cm(2), measured by computed tomography, was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included body weight, quality of life, treatment toxicity and progression free and overall survival. RESULTS: A total of 107 patients were enrolled (mean age, 65 years (SD, 11 years), 63% male). Mean change in skeletal muscle area from T0 till T1 was -2.5 (SD, 9.5) cm(2), with no difference between NC versus UC (p = 0.891). The proportion of patients with a clinically relevant decrease in skeletal muscle area of ≥6.0 cm(2) did not differ (NC 30% versus UC 31%, p = 0.467). NC compared with UC had a significant positive effect on body weight (B coefficient 1.7, p = 0.045), progression free survival (p = 0.039) and overall survival (p = 0.046). CONCLUSIONS: NC of patients undergoing chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer had no effect on muscle mass. However, we found that NC may increase body weight and improve progression free survival and overall survival compared to UC in this group of patients. These findings need further evaluation in future clinical trials. CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01998152; Netherlands Trial Register NTR4223.

Introduction: Girls-only vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 and 18 was implemented in the Netherlands in 2009. Despite the evidence of the efficacy against precancerous lesions, cross-protection induced by the vaccine and a greater potential for cancer prevention than cervical cancer only, vaccine coverage in the girls-only program has remained below target levels. Areas covered: In this paper, we review the literature from the Netherlands on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination since vaccine introduction, give an account of the coverage, safety and effectiveness of HPV vaccination as has been reported in the Dutch surveillance program and discuss challenges of the current HPV vaccination program. Expert commentary: Girls-only HPV vaccination may confer a substantial health gain in HPV-related disease prevention. However, vaccine coverage declined remarkably recently possibly related to safety concerns, limiting the benefits from girls’ vaccination and increasing the potential additional benefit of sex-neutral HPV vaccination. Considering the emergence of novel vaccination and screening options and the change from cytology- to HPV-based screening in 2017, further research is required to inform decisions on the optimization of an integrated vaccination and screening program.

Introduction Reimbursement of amyloid–positron emission tomography (PET) is lagging due to the lack of definitive evidence on its clinical utility and cost-effectiveness. The Amyloid Imaging to Prevent Alzheimer's Disease–Diagnostic and Patient Management Study (AMYPAD-DPMS) is designed to fill this gap. Methods AMYPAD-DPMS is a phase 4, multicenter, prospective, randomized controlled study. Nine hundred patients with subjective cognitive decline plus, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia possibly due to Alzheimer's disease will be randomized to ARM1, amyloid-PET performed early in the diagnostic workup; ARM2, amyloid-PET performed after 8 months; and ARM3, amyloid-PET performed whenever the physician chooses to do so. Endpoints The primary endpoint is the difference between ARM1 and ARM2 in the proportion of patients receiving a very-high-confidence etiologic diagnosis after 3 months. Secondary endpoints address diagnosis and diagnostic confidence, diagnostic/therapeutic management, health economics and patient-related outcomes, and methods for image quantitation. Expected Impacts AMYPAD-DPMS will supply physicians and health care payers with real-world data to plan management decisions.

AimsTo investigate the accuracy and reproducibility of a scoring system for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1–3) based on immunohistochemical (IHC) biomarkers Ki-67 and p16ink4a.Methods115 cervical tissue specimens were reviewed by three expert gynaecopathologists and graded according to three strategies: (1) CIN grade based on H&E staining only; (2) immunoscore based on the cumulative score of Ki-67 and p16ink4a only (0–6); and (3) CIN grade based on H&E supported by non-objectified IHC 2 weeks after scoring 1 and 2. The majority consensus diagnosis of the CIN grade based on H&E supported by IHC was used as the Reference Standard. The proportion of test positives (accuracy) and the absolute agreements across pathologists (reproducibility) of the three grading strategies within each Reference Standard category were calculated.ResultsWe found that immunoscoring with positivity definition 6 yielded the highest proportion of test positives for Reference Standard CIN3 (95.5%), in combination with the lowest proportion of test positives in samples with CIN1 (1.8%). The proportion of test positives for CIN3 was significantly lower for sole H&E staining (81.8%) or combined H&E and IHC grading (84.8%) with positivity definition ≥CIN3. Immunoscore 6 also yielded high absolute agreements for CIN3 and CIN1, but the absolute agreement was low for CIN2.ConclusionsThe higher accuracy and reproducibility of the immunoscore opens the possibility of a more standardised and reproducible definition of CIN grade than conventional pathology practice, allowing a more accurate comparison of CIN-based management strategies and evaluation of new biomarkers to improve the understanding of progression of precancer from human papillomavirus infection to cancer.

DNA methylation analysis of cervical scrapes using FAM19A4 and mir124‐2 genes has shown a good clinical performance in detecting cervical cancer and advanced CIN lesions in need of treatment in HPV‐positive women. To date, longitudinal data on the cancer risk of methylation test‐negative women are lacking. In our study, we assessed the longitudinal outcome of FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation analysis in an HPV‐positive screening cohort with 14 years of follow‐up. Archived HPV‐positive cervical scrapes of 1,040 women (age 29–61 years), who were enrolled in the POBASCAM screening trial (ISRCTN20781131) were tested for FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation. By linkage with the nationwide network and registry of histo‐ and cytopathology in the Netherlands (PALGA), 35 cervical cancers were identified during 14 years of follow‐up comprising three screens (baseline, and after 5 and 10 years). The baseline scrape of 36.1% (n = 375) women tested positive for FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation, including 24 women with cervical cancer in follow‐up, and 30.6% (n = 318) had abnormal cytology (threshold borderline dyskaryosis or ASCUS), including 14 women with cervical cancer in follow‐up. Within screening round capability of FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation to detect cervical cancer was 100% (11/11, 95% CI: 71.5–100). Kaplan–Meier estimate of 14‐year cumulative cervical cancer incidence was 1.7% (95% CI: 0.66–3.0) among baseline methylation‐negative and 2.4% (95% CI: 1.4–3.6) among baseline cytology‐negative women (risk difference: 0.71% [95% CI: 0.16–1.4]). In conclusion, a negative FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation test provides a low cervical cancer risk in HPV‐positive women of 30 years and older. FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation testing merits consideration as an objective triage test in HPV‐based cervical screening programs., What's new? While HPV testing is increasingly being used for cervical‐cancer screening, there is a problem with this approach: Most HPV infections won't progress to (pre)malignant disease, which results in a significant number of unnecessary colposcopy referrals and over‐diagnoses. A better triage test is needed to discern which HPV+ women have clinically relevant disease. In this longitudinal study, the authors found that a methylation test may provide adequate predictive power. Low cervical‐cancer incidence after a negative FAM19A4/mir124‐2 methylation test among HPV+ women supports use of this methylation assay as safe, objective triage tool.

Purpose: Offering self-sampling of cervico-vaginal material for high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing is an effective method to increase the coverage in cervical screening programs. Molecular triage directly on hrHPV-positive self-samples for colposcopy referral opens the way to full molecular cervical screening. Here, we set out to identify a DNA methylation classifier for detection of cervical precancer (CIN3) and cancer, applicable to lavage and brush self-samples. Experimental Design: We determined genome-wide DNA methylation profiles of 72 hrHPV-positive self-samples, using the Infinium Methylation 450K Array. The selected DNA methylation markers were evaluated by multiplex quantitative methylation-specific PCR (qMSP) in both hrHPV-positive lavage (n = 245) and brush (n = 246) self-samples from screening cohorts. Subsequently, logistic regression analysis was performed to build a DNA methylation classifier for CIN3 detection applicable to self-samples of both devices. For validation, an independent set of hrHPV-positive lavage (n = 199) and brush (n = 287) self-samples was analyzed. Results: Genome-wide DNA methylation profiling revealed 12 DNA methylation markers for CIN3 detection. Multiplex qMSP analysis of these markers in large series of lavage and brush self-samples yielded a 3-gene methylation classifier (ASCL1, LHX8, and ST6GALNAC5). This classifier showed a very good clinical performance for CIN3 detection in both lavage (AUC = 0.88; sensitivity = 74%; specificity = 79%) and brush (AUC = 0.90; sensitivity = 88%; specificity = 81%) self-samples in the validation set. Importantly, all self-samples from women with cervical cancer scored DNA methylation–positive. Conclusions: By genome-wide DNA methylation profiling on self-samples, we identified a highly effective 3-gene methylation classifier for direct triage on hrHPV-positive self-samples, which is superior to currently available methods. Clin Cancer Res; 24(14); 3456–64. ©2018 AACR.

Background:In human papillomavirus (HPV)-based screening, a repeat HPV test is often recommended for HPV-positive women with normal cytology (HPV-pos/cyt-neg), but its absolute risk of cervical precancer (CIN3+) over two screening rounds needs to be assessed.Methods:We compared the 5-year risk of HPV infection and CIN3+ in HPV-pos/cyt-neg women with a negative repeat HPV test to the risk in HPV-negative women with normal cytology (double negatives) in the POBASCAM cohort. We obtained histology data from the Dutch pathology registry (PALGA).Results:Human papillomavirus infection risk was 20.4% (19 of 93) in HPV-pos/cyt-neg, repeat HPV-negative women and 3.2% (294 of 9186; P

Purpose: Besides cervical cancer, HPV infection is linked to a multitude of diseases in both males and females, suggesting that vaccination programmes should be re-evaluated, with a judicious assessment made of the disease burden stratified by sex, age, and genotype. Projections of burden into the near future are also needed to provide a benchmark for evaluating the impact of vaccination programmes, and to assess the need for scaling-up preventive measures. Methods: Using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, we estimated the total HPV-associated disease burden in the Netherlands. Annual cancer registrations over the period 1989–2014 for all cancers with an aetiological link to HPV infection were retrieved, supplemented by incidence data on high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and anogenital warts. Results: Over the recent period 2011–2014, the average annual HPV disease burden was 10,600 DALYs (95% credible interval (CrI):10,260–10,960) in females and 3,346 DALYs (95% CrI: 2,973–3,762) in males. Burden was dominated by cervical cancer, but its share amongst women decreased from 89% in 1989 to 77% in 2014. The male share of the total disease burden increased from 9.8% in 1989 to 26% in 2014. In 2023 (before the expected clinical impact from vaccinating girls), total burden is forecasted at 1.3-fold larger than in 2014. Conclusions: The HPV-associated disease burden is higher than that reported for any other infectious disease in the Netherlands, with a larger burden observed in women than in men. The rapidly rising male share of the total burden underlines the prioritization of male HPV-related disease in prevention programmes.

BACKGROUND: Compelling evidence links elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and other inflammatory markers to poor treatment outcome of antidepressant medication. Little is known about the contribution of low-grade inflammation to treatment response to electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in severely depressed patients.METHOD: Associations between serum levels of CRP, interleukin-6, interleukin-10, and tumour necrosis factor-α as well as remission of depression, time to remission, and speed of decline of depressive symptoms were examined in 95 older (mean age: 73.1 years) depressed patients treated with ECT.RESULTS: Moderately elevated levels of CRP at baseline (3 to 10 mg/L), but no other inflammatory markers, were associated with higher remission rates. In patients with moderately elevated CRP levels, the odds ratio for remission was 3.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-11.97; p = 0.04). Time to remission was shorter in those with moderately elevated CRP levels (p = 0.05). Speed of decline was higher in patients with moderately elevated CRP levels as compared with those with low CRP levels (decline of 3.2 Montgomery Åsberg Depression Rating Scale points per administration vs. 2.3 points per administration, p = 0.03).LIMITATIONS: Because of the observational design, residual confounding through other lifestyle or demographic factors cannot be ruled out.CONCLUSIONS: Although earlier studies showed that low-grade inflammation contributes to poor treatment response in those treated with antidepressants, our study provides clues that low-grade inflammation does not have such a detrimental effect on the treatment response to ECT. This is underscored by our finding that moderately elevated CRP levels were associated with increased remission rates in depressed patients treated with ECT. Replication studies are warranted.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the long-term risk for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse (CIN3+) among HPV positive women triaged with FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation analysis.METHODS: In a post hoc analysis, data on FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation, cytology, and HPV16/18 genotyping of HPV positive women (n = 1025) from a large population-based screening cohort with 14-year follow-up were evaluated. Cumulative CIN3+ incidences over 3 screening rounds (5-year intervals) of 4 triage strategies were compared: FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation analysis, cytology, HPV16/18 genotyping with FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation, and HPV16/18 genotyping with cytology.RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier estimates of 14-year cumulative CIN3+ incidence of HPV positive women with a negative methylation and a negative cytology triage test were comparable (16.3% and 15.6%, respectively). The cumulative CIN3+ incidence of methylation positive and cytology positive women were 39.8% and 46.5%, respectively. HPV16/18 genotyping with methylation and HPV16/18 genotyping with cytology resulted in the lowest 14-year cumulative CIN3+ incidence among triage negative women (10.7% and 10.0%, respectively), but cumulative CIN3+ incidence among triage positive women was lower (33.4% and 35.7%, respectively) compared with triage by methylation alone and cytology alone.CONCLUSIONS: Among HPV positive women of 30 years and older, a negative FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation triage test provides a similar long-term CIN3+ risk compared with a negative cytology triage test. Because of their high CIN3+ risk, women with a positive methylation triage test could be referred for colposcopy. Therefore, FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation analysis is a promising alternative to cytology for triage of HPV positive women.

Introduction The clinical course of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/3) is characterised by a high spontaneous regression rate. Histological assessment is unable to differentiate between CIN2/3 lesions likely to regress and those likely to persist or progress. Most CIN2/3 lesions are treated by surgical excision, leading to overtreatment of a substantial proportion. In this prospective study, we evaluate the value of DNA methylation of host cell genes, which has shown to be particularly sensitive for the detection of advanced CIN2/3 and cervical cancer, in the prediction of regression or non-regression of CIN2/3 lesions. Methods and analysis This is a multicentre observational longitudinal study with 24-month follow-up. Women referred for colposcopy with an abnormal cervical scrape, who have been diagnosed with CIN2/3 and a small cervical lesion (≤50% of cervix) will be asked to participate. Participants will be monitored by 6-monthly cytological and colposcopic examination. In case of clinical progression, participants will receive treatment and exit the study protocol. At baseline and during follow-up, self-sampled cervicovaginal brushes and cervical scrapes will be collected for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) testing and FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation analysis. A colposcopy-directed biopsy will be taken from all participants at the last follow-up visit. The primary study endpoint is regression or non-regression at the end of the study based on the histological diagnosis. Regression is defined as CIN1 or less. Non-regression is defined as CIN2 or worse. The secondary study endpoint is defined as HPV clearance (double-negative HPV test at two consecutive time-points). The association between methylation status and regression probability will be evaluated by means of χ2 testing. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was obtained in all participating clinics. Results of the main study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Trial registration number NTR6069; Pre-results

BACKGROUND: Genotype attribution in high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+) can be calculated by the hierarchical or proportional method, but these do not account for the genotype distribution in the general population and cannot assess the number of genotype-specific high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+). METHODS: We present a statistical method for estimating genotype-specific CIN3+ risks and genotype attribution in CIN3+ from cervical screening samples. A key assumption is that genotype-specific infections in women with multiple infections have independent progression risks. We applied the method to 512 human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women referred for colposcopy and validated it by laser-capture microscopy-polymerase chain reaction. We also compared performance by simulation. RESULTS: For endpoint CIN3+, the summed deviation of attributable fractions between the estimated genotype-specific attributable fractions and laser-capture microscopy polymerase chain reaction-based attributable fractions was similar for the three methods: 0.17 for the new method (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.091, 0.28), 0.19 (95% CI = 0.11, 0.33) for the hierarchical method and 0.15 (95% CI = 0.085, 0.26) for the proportional method. Simulations indicated that the new method outperformed the other methods for endpoint CIN3+ when the number of HPV-positive women was large. Exclusion of HPV16-positive women had only a small effect on the estimated genotype-specific risks, supporting the independence assumption. CONCLUSIONS: Genotype-specific attribution in CIN3+ can be accurately predicted by a model that assumes independence between genotypes with respect to disease progression. The method can be used to monitor HPV vaccine effectiveness for prevention of genotype-specific CIN3+ and to assess disease risk after vaccination.

Background The Delirium Observation Screening Scale (DOS) was developed to facilitate early recognition of delirium by nurses during routine clinical care. It has shown good validity in a variety of patient populations, but has not yet been validated in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer, although the DOS is commonly used in this setting in daily practice. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the DOS in hospitalized patients with advanced cancer using the revised version of the Delirium Rating Scale (DRS-R− 98) as the gold standard. Methods Patients with advanced cancer admitted to the medical oncology ward were screened for delirium with the DOS and DRS-R−98. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) of the DOS were calculated, using a DOS score ≥ 3 as a cut-off for delirium. Results Ninety-five DOS negative and 98 DOS positive patients were identified. Sensitivity of the DOS, was > 99.9% (95%-CI, 95.8–100.0%), specificity was 99.5% (95%-CI 95.5–99.96%), PPV was 94.6% (95% CI 88.0–97.7), and NPV was > 99.9% (95% CI 96.1–100.0). Conclusions The DOS is an accurate screening tool for delirium in patients with advanced cancer. Since it has the benefit of being easily implicated in daily practice, we recommend to educate caregivers to screen patients with advanced cancer by DOS analysis. By early recognition and adequate treatment of this distressing delirium syndrome the quality of life of patients with advanced cancer can be improved. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01539733 (Feb 27, 2012 - retrospectively registered), Netherlands Trial Register NTR2559 (Oct 7, 2010). Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-019-5351-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Contains fulltext : 207395.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) BACKGROUND: Opioids are prescribed in over 40% of patients with advanced cancer, but side effects occur frequently. In this study we evaluated the development and treatment of opioid induced constipation (OIC), and OIC resolving effect of methylnaltrexone for different opioid subtypes in daily clinical practice. METHODS: Patients with cancer using opioids were included in a retrospective chart analysis. Baseline characteristics, data on opioid use, laxative use, and OIC were collected. Patients with OIC who were prescribed methylnaltrexone, were included in a prospective observational trial (NCT01955213). RESULTS: Thirty-nine of 327 patients (pts) with cancer who were treated with opioids suffered from OIC (overall prevalence 12%; 95%-CI: 8-15%). The prevalence of OIC was similar in patients treated with oxycodone or fentanyl (12 of 81 pts. vs. 18 of 110 pts., RR 0.9; 95%CI 0.4-2.0). The morphine equivalent daily dose did not significantly differ between opioid subtypes (fentanyl 89 mg (IQR 60-180) vs. oxycodone 40 mg (40-80), P = 0.231). Twenty-two individual patients (7%) were admitted for OIC. Most effective laxatives in admitted patients were enemas, methylnaltrexone, or 4-l polyethylene-glycol solution. In the prospective observational study, the effect of methylnaltrexone could be evaluated in 23 patients. Eleven patients achieved the primary endpoint of >/=2 laxation responses out of the first four doses methylnaltrexone, independent of opioid subtype. CONCLUSIONS: OIC is a burdensome clinical problem independent of opioid subtype. Timely intensification of prophylactic laxative treatment, especially when opioid doses increase, may help to prevent OIC. Clinically overt OIC requires a more intensive laxative regimen with for example methylnaltrexone. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01955213 .

Background Biomarkers such as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have predictive value for progression to dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The pre-dementia stage takes far longer, and the interpretation of biomarker findings is particular relevant for individuals who present at a memory clinic, but are deemed cognitively normal. The objective of the current study is to construct biomarker-based prognostic models for personalized risk of clinical progression in cognitively normal individuals presenting at a memory clinic. Methods We included 481 individuals with subjective cognitive decline (SCD) from the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort. Prognostic models were developed by Cox regression with patient characteristics, MRI, and/or CSF biomarkers to predict clinical progression to MCI or dementia. We estimated 5- and 3-year individualized risks based on patient-specific values. External validation was performed on Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and an European dataset. Results Based on demographics only (Harrell’s C = 0.70), 5- and 3-year progression risks varied from 6% [3–11] and 4% [2–8] (age 55, MMSE 30) to 38% [29–49] and 28% [21–37] (age 70, MMSE 27). Normal CSF biomarkers strongly decreased progression probabilities (Harrell’s C = 0.82). By contrast, abnormal CSF markedly increased risk (5 years, 96% [56–100]; 3 years, 89% [44–99]). The CSF model could reclassify 58% of the individuals with an “intermediate” risk (35–65%) based on the demographic model. MRI measures were not retained in the models. Conclusion The current study takes the first steps in a personalized approach for cognitively normal individuals by providing biomarker-based prognostic models. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s13195-019-0487-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. Methods We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). Findings 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). Interpretation Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Introduction. Recent studies have shown that CADM1/MAL-methylation testing detects high-grade CIN lesions with a high short-term progression risk for cervical cancer. Women treated for CIN2/3 are at risk of post-treatment disease, representing either persistent (incompletely treated) or incident (early onset) lesions. Here, we evaluated CADM1/MAL-methylation analysis as potential tool for detecting recurrent high-grade CIN lesions (rCIN2/3). Methods and materials. A multicenter prospective clinical cohort study was conducted among 364 women treated for CIN2/3. Cervical scrapes were taken prior to treatment, and six and 12 months post-treatment and tested for cytology, hrHPV (plus genotype) and CADM1/MAL-methylation. When at six months either of these tests was positive, a colposcopy-directed biopsy was obtained. At 12 months, all women underwent an exit-colposcopy with biopsy. In case of rCIN2/3, re-treatment was done. Results. We found 28 rCIN2 (7.7%) and 14 rCIN3 (3.8%), resulting in a total recurrence rate of 11.5%. All 14 women with rCIN3 and 15/28 (54%) with rCIN2 showed hrHPV type-persistence. Of these, 9/14 ( 64%) rCIN3 and 8/15 (53%) rCIN2 were CADM1/MAL-methylation positive. All incident rCIN2, characterized by hrHPV genotype-switch, were CADM1/MAL-methylation negative. All three carcinomas found after re-treatment were CADM1/MAL-methylation positive. CADM1/MAL-methylation positivity at both baseline and follow-up significantly increased the risk of >= rCIN3 (from 0.7% to 18.4%), and >= rCIN2 (from 82% to 36.8%), compared to a consistently CADM1/MAL-methylation negative result (p-value

Primary HPV-testing has been shown to provide a superior detection of women at risk of cervical (pre)cancer compared to cytology-based screening. However, as most high-risk HPV infections are harmless, additional triage testing of HPV-positive women is necessary to identify those with cervical (pre)cancer. In this paper, we compare the performance, advantages and limitations of clinically relevant available triage strategies for HPV-positive women.Many different colposcopy triage strategies, comprising both microscopy-based and molecular (virus/host-related) markers, have been suggested: Pap cytology, p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology, HPV16/18 genotyping, viral DNA methylation and host cell DNA methylation. Literature search was limited to triage strategies that have achieved at least phase 2 of the five-phase framework for biomarker development and studies including large cohorts (≥100 hrHPV-positive women). Triage markers were stratified by sample type (cervical scrape, self-collected sample) and by study population (screening, non-attendee, referral). Expert commentary: At present, repeat Pap cytology and Pap cytology combined with HPV16/18 genotyping are the only triage strategies that have been robustly shown to be ready for implementation. Other strategies such as p16/Ki-67 dual-stained cytology and host cell DNA methylation analysis, with or without additional HPV16/18 genotyping, are attractive options for the near future.

Background: The association between lichen sclerosus and vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) has long been recognized, but large epidemiologic studies are lacking. Methods: Data of women diagnosed with vulvar pathology in the Netherlands were retrieved from the Dutch Pathology Registry. All vulvar pathology reports of this historical cohort were reviewed to construct a research database, including 3,038 women with lichen sclerosus diagnosed between 1991 and 2011. The incidence rate of lichen sclerosus and the cumulative incidence of VSCC among women with lichen sclerosus were estimated. Results: Between 1991 and 2011, the incidence rate of lichen sclerosus increased from 7.4 to 14.6 per 100,000 woman-years. The median age at time of lichen sclerosus diagnosis was 59.8 years and the cumulative VSCC incidence was 6.7%. The 10-year VSCC incidence in women with lichen sclerosus was associated with concurrent vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN; 18.8% in women with VIN and 2.8% in women without VIN) and age at time of lichen sclerosus diagnosis (5.9% in women of ≥70 years, 3% in women between 50 and 70 years, and 1.8% in women Conclusion: This historical cohort showed a nearly 100% increase in incidence of lichen sclerosus between 1991 and 2011. Concurrent VIN and age ≥70 years at time of lichen sclerosus diagnosis are important risk factors for vulvar cancer development. Impact: The incidence of lichen sclerosus is rising and special attention is needed in particular in women with concurrent VIN because of their high risk of cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(8); 1224–30. ©2016 AACR.

Background Vaccine price is one of the most influential parameters in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes. Vaccine tendering is a cost-containment method widely used by national or regional health authorities, but information on tender-based HPV vaccine prices is scarce. Methods Procurement notices and awards for the HPV vaccines, published from January 2007 until January 2018, were systematically retrieved from the online platform for public procurement in Europe. Information was collected from national or regional tenders organized for publicly funded preadolescent vaccination programmes against HPV. The influence of variables on the vaccine price was estimated by means of a mixed-effects model. Findings Prices were collected from 178 procurements announced in 15 European countries. The average price per dose for the first-generation HPV vaccines decreased from €101.8 (95% CI 91.3–114) in 2007 to €28.4 (22.6–33.5) in 2017, whereas the average dose price of the 9-valent vaccine in 2016–2017 was €49.1 (38.0–66.8). Unit prices were, respectively, €7.5 (4.4–10.6) and €34.4 (27.4–41.4) higher for the 4-valent and 9-valent vaccines than for the 2-valent vaccine. Contract volume and duration, level of procurement (region or country), per capita GDP and number of offers received had a significant effect on vaccine price. Interpretation HPV vaccine procurement is widely used across Europe. The fourfold decrease in the average tender-based prices compared to list prices confirms the potential of tendering as an efficient cost-containment strategy, thereby expanding the indications for cost-effective HPV vaccination to previously ineligible target groups. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10198-018-0996-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

We studied whether triage of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women participating in an HPV-based screening programme can be improved by including the HPV result at the previous screen in the triage algorithm. We analyzed data of a subgroup of 366 women from the POBASCAM trial, screened by cytology and HPV cotesting. Women were included if they tested HPV-positive in the second HPV-based screening round. We evaluated the clinical performance of 16 strategies, consisting of cytology, HPV genotyping, and/or previous screen HPV result. The clinical endpoint was cervical precancer or cancer (CIN3+). The current Dutch triage testing policy for HPV-positive women is to refer women for colposcopy if they have abnormal cytology at baseline or after 6-18 months. In the second HPV-based screening round, this strategy yielded a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95.8% (95% confidence interval: 91.9-98.2) and colposcopy referral rate of 37.6% (32.3-43.2%). Replacing repeat cytology by the previous screen HPV result yielded a similar NPV (96.9%, 93.3-98.9) and colposcopy referral rate (38.8%, 33.4-44.4). A higher NPV (99.2%, 96.3-100%) at the cost of a higher colposcopy referral rate (49.2%, 43.6-54.8) was achieved when cytology was combined with HPV16/18 genotyping. The other 13 triage strategies yielded a lower NPV, a higher colposcopy referral rate or performed similarly but required additional testing. HPV-positive women in the second HPV-based screening round can be suitably managed by cytology, HPV16/18 genotyping and the HPV result at the previous screen, obviating the need for repeat testing of HPV-positive, cytology negative women.

Cervical cancer arises differentially from infections with up to 14 high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, making model-based evaluations of cervical cancer screening strategies computationally heavy and structurally complex. Thus, with the high number of HPV types, microsimulation is typically used to investigate cervical cancer screening strategies. We developed a feasible deterministic model that integrates varying natural history of cervical cancer by the different high-risk HPV types with compressed mixture representations of the screened population, allowing for fast computation of screening interventions. To evaluate the method, we built a corresponding microsimulation model. The outcomes of the deterministic model were stable over different levels of compression and agreed with the microsimulation model for all disease states, screening outcomes, and levels of cancer incidence. The compression reduced the computation time more than 1000 fold when compared to microsimulation in a cohort of 1 million women. The compressed mixture representations enable the assessment of uncertainties surrounding the natural history of cervical cancer and screening decisions in a computationally undemanding way.

In this study, we evaluate the expression of human papillomavirus E4 protein (marker for the onset of a productive infection) and hypermethylation of host-cell CADM1, MAL, and miR124-2 genes (marker for an advanced, transforming infection) in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. A total of 115 cervical lesions were categorized by 3 pathologists into no dysplasia, CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, or cancer by classical histomorphological grading criteria, and by an immunoscore (cumulative value: 0-6) grading system based on Ki-67 (score: 0-3) and p16ink4a (score: 0-3) expression. Lesions were immunostained for E4 protein and analyzed for hypermethylation of CADM1, MAL, or miR124-2 genes. Expression of E4 and hypermethylation levels were related to CIN grade based on both classical and immunoscore grading. Hypermethylation increased with severity of the lesion as defined by both classical histomorphological grading and immunoscore criteria, and was always present in carcinomas (22/22). Extensive E4 expression decreased with increasing CIN grade and immunoscore, being most frequent in classically graded CIN1 or in lesions with cumulative immunoscore 1-3 and absent in carcinomas. High-grade lesions (CIN2/3 or immunoscore: 4-6) showed less E4 expression, which was inversely related to an increasing hypermethylation. Extensive E4 expression, as observed in a small proportion of high-grade lesions (6/49 and 8/43, respectively), was mostly associated with a negative methylation marker status (5/6 and 7/8, respectively). Our results illustrate the gradual transition of productive CIN (reflected by extensive E4 expression), to advanced transforming CIN (reflected by extensive hypermethylation) and cancer. Expression patterns of E4 and hypermethylation status of host-cell genes, may be used to identify cervical lesions at risk for cervical cancer, providing a better guidance for clinicians on treatment decisions.