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Background Survivors from Ebola virus disease (EVD) may be at the origin of EVD resurgence. Methods Simultaneous reactivity to at least 2 Ebola virus or Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) antigens was detected in 11 of 488 (2.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–4.0) suspected EVD patients who were discharged as negative after 2 consecutive negative tests during the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Results After extrapolating the total number of individuals discharged as negative during the entire outbreak, we estimated a total of 1314 additional missed Ebola cases. Conclusions These findings emphasize the usefulness of an EBOV serology analysis and the importance of extending epidemic surveillance to clinically suspected cases who were discharged as negative.

During the 10th outbreak of Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Institut National de Recherche Biomedicale strategically positioned 13 decentralized field laboratories with dedicated equipment to quickly detect cases as the outbreak evolved. The laboratories were operated by national staff, who quickly handed over competencies and skills to local persons to successfully manage future outbreaks. Laboratories ana-lyzed approximate to 230,000 Ebola diagnostic samples under stringent biosafety measures, documentation, and database man-agement. Field laboratories diversified their activities (di-agnosis, chemistry and hematology, survivor follow-up, and genomic sequencing) and shipped 127,993 samples from the field to a biorepository in Kinshasa under good conditions. Deploying decentralized and well-equipped laboratories run by local personnel in at-risk countries for Ebola virus disease outbreaks is an efficient response; all activities are quickly conducted in the field.

During the 2018-2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo, EVD was diagnosed in a patient who had received the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-based vaccine expressing a ZEBOV glycoprotein (rVSV-ZEBOV) (Merck). His treatment included an Ebola virus (EBOV)-specific monoclonal antibody (mAb114), and he recovered within 14 days. However, 6 months later, he presented again with severe EVD-like illness and EBOV viremia, and he died. We initiated epidemiologic and genomic investigations that showed that the patient had had a relapse of acute EVD that led to a transmission chain resulting in 91 cases across six health zones over 4 months. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).

Little is known about the clinical features and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between March 10, 2020 and July 31, 2020 at seven hospitals in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Outcomes included clinical improvement within 30 days (primary) and in-hospital mortality (secondary). Of 766 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 500 (65.6%) were male, with a median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 46 (34–58) years. One hundred ninety-one (25%) patients had severe/critical disease requiring admission in the intensive care unit (ICU). Six hundred twenty patients (80.9%) improved and were discharged within 30 days of admission. Overall in-hospital mortality was 13.2% (95% CI: 10.9–15.8), and almost 50% among those in the ICU. Independent risk factors for death were age < 20 years (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 6.62, 95% CI: 1.85–23.64), 40–59 years (aHR = 4.45, 95% CI: 1.83–10.79), and ≥ 60 years (aHR = 13.63, 95% CI: 5.70–32.60) compared with those aged 20–39 years, with obesity (aHR = 2.30, 95% CI: 1.24–4.27), and with chronic kidney disease (aHR = 5.33, 95% CI: 1.85–15.35). In marginal structural model analysis, there was no statistically significant difference in odds of clinical improvement (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.53, 95% CI: 0.88–2.67, P = 0.132) nor risk of death (aOR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.35–1.20) when comparing the use of chloroquine/azithromycin versus other treatments. In this DRC study, the high mortality among patients aged < 20 years and with severe/critical disease is of great concern, and requires further research for confirmation and targeted interventions.

As of June 11, 2020, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has reported 4,258 COVID-19 cases with 90 deaths. With other African countries, the DRC faces the challenge of striking a balance between easing public health lockdown measures to curtail the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and minimizing both economic hardships for large sectors of the population and negative impacts on health services for other infectious and noninfectious diseases. The DRC recently controlled its tenth Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak, but COVID-19 and a new EVD outbreak beginning on June 1, 2020 in the northwest Équateur Province have added an additional burden to health services. Although the epidemiology and transmission of EVD and COVID-19 differ, leveraging the public health infrastructures and experiences from coordinating the EVD response to guide the public health response to COVID-19 is critical. Building on the DRC’s 40 years of experience with 10 previous EVD outbreaks, we highlight the DRC’s multi-sectoral public health approach to COVID-19, which includes community-based screening, testing, contact-tracing, risk communication, community engagement, and case management. We also highlight remaining challenges and discuss the way forward for achieving control of both COVID-19 and EVD in the DRC.

Nationwide analyses are required to optimise and tailor activities to control future COVID-19 waves of resurgence continent-wide. We compared epidemiological and clinical outcomes of the four COVID-19 waves in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).This retrospective descriptive epidemiological analysis included data from the national line list of confirmed COVID-19 cases in all provinces for all waves between 9 March 2020 and 2 January 2022. Descriptive statistical measures (frequencies, percentages, case fatality rates [CFR], test positivity rates [TPR], and characteristics) were compared using chi-squared or the Fisher-Irwin test.During the study period, 72,108/445,084 (16.2%) tests were positive, with 9,641/56,637 (17.0%), 16,643/66,560 (25.0%), 24,172/157,945 (15.3%), and 21,652/163,942 (13.2%) cases during the first, second, third, and fourth waves, respectively. TPR significantly decreased from 17.0% in the first wave to 13.2% in the fourth wave as did infection of frontline health workers (5.2% vs. 0.9%). CFR decreased from 5.1 to 0.9% from the first to fourth wave. No sex- or age-related differences in distributions across different waves were observed. The majority of cases were asymptomatic in the first (73.1%) and second (86.6%) waves, in contrast to that in the third (11.1%) and fourth (31.3%) waves.Despite fewer reported cases, the primary waves (first and second) of the COVID-19 pandemic in the DRC were more severe than the third and fourth waves, with each wave being associated with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant. Tailored public health and social measures, and resurgence monitoring are needed to control future waves of COVID-19.

Background The control of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks relies on rapid diagnosis and prompt action, a daunting task in limited-resource contexts. This study develops prediction scores that can help healthcare workers improve their decision-making at the triage-point of EVD suspect-cases during EVD outbreaks. Methods We computed accuracy measurements of EVD predictors to assess their diagnosing ability compared with the reference standard GeneXpert® results, during the eastern DRC EVD outbreak. We developed predictive scores using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones approach and constructed a clinical prediction score (CPS) and an extended clinical prediction score (ECPS). We plotted the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), estimated the area under the ROC (AUROC) to assess the performance of scores, and computed net benefits (NB) to assess the clinical utility (decision-making ability) of the scores at a given cut-off. We performed decision curve analysis (DCA) to compare, at a range of threshold probabilities, prediction scores’ decision-making ability and to quantify the number of unnecessary isolation. Results The analysis was done on data from 10432 subjects, including 651 EVD cases. The EVD prevalence was 6.2% in the whole dataset, 14.8% in the subgroup of suspects who fitted the WHO Ebola case definition, and 3.2% for the set of suspects who did not fit this case definition. The WHO clinical definition yielded 61.6% sensitivity and 76.4% specificity. Fatigue, difficulty in swallowing, red eyes, gingival bleeding, hematemesis, confusion, hemoptysis, and a history of contact with an EVD case were predictors of EVD. The AUROC for ECPS was 0.88 (95%CI: 0.86–0.89), significantly greater than this for CPS, 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69–0.73) (p < 0.0001). At -1 point of score, the CPS yielded a sensitivity of 85.4% and specificity of 42.3%, and the ECPS yielded sensitivity of 78.8% and specificity of 81.4%. The diagnostic performance of the scores varied in the three disease contexts (the whole, fitting or not fitting the WHO case definition data sets). At 10% of threshold probability, e.g. in disease-adverse context, ECPS gave an NB of 0.033 and a net reduction of unnecessary isolation of 67.1%. Using ECPS as a joint approach to isolate EVD suspects reduces the number of unnecessary isolations by 65.7%. Conclusion The scores developed in our study showed a good performance as EVD case predictors since their use improved the net benefit, i.e., their clinical utility. These rapid and low-cost tools can help in decision-making to isolate EVD-suspicious cases at the triage point during an outbreak. However, these tools still require external validation and cost-effectiveness evaluation before being used on a large scale.

Despite more than 300,000 rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-glycoprotein (GP) vaccine doses having been administered during Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) between 2018 and 2020, seroepidemiologic studies of vaccinated Congolese populations are lacking. This study examines the antibody response at 21 d and 6 mo postvaccination after single-dose rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccination among EVD-exposed and potentially exposed populations in the DRC. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of 608 rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP-vaccinated individuals during an EVD outbreak in North Kivu Province, DRC. Participants provided questionnaires and blood samples at three study visits (day 0, visit 1; day 21, visit 2; and month 6, visit 3). Anti-GP immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody titers were measured in serum by the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group anti-Ebola virus GP IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibody response was defined as an antibody titer that had increased fourfold from visit 1 to visit 2 and was above four times the lower limit of quantification at visit 2; antibody persistence was defined as a similar increase from visit 1 to visit 3. We then examined demographics for associations with follow-up antibody titers using generalized linear mixed models. A majority of the sample, 87.2%, had an antibody response at visit 2, and 95.6% demonstrated antibody persistence at visit 3. Being female and of young age was predictive of a higher antibody titer postvaccination. Antibody response and persistence after Ebola vaccination was robust in this cohort, confirming findings from outside of the DRC.

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS), the shotgun sequencing of RNA and DNA from clinical samples, has proved useful for broad-spectrum pathogen detection and the genomic surveillance of viral outbreaks. An additional target enrichment step is generally needed for high-sensitivity pathogen identification in low-titre infections, yet available methods using PCR or capture probes can be limited by high cost, narrow scope of detection, lengthy protocols and/or cross-contamination. Here, we developed metagenomic sequencing with spiked primer enrichment (MSSPE), a method for enriching targeted RNA viral sequences while simultaneously retaining metagenomic sensitivity for other pathogens. We evaluated MSSPE for 14 different viruses, yielding a median tenfold enrichment and mean 47% (±16%) increase in the breadth of genome coverage over mNGS alone. Virus detection using MSSPE arboviral or haemorrhagic fever viral panels was comparable in sensitivity to specific PCR, demonstrating 95% accuracy for the detection of Zika, Ebola, dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever viruses in plasma samples from infected patients. Notably, sequences from re-emerging and/or co-infecting viruses that have not been specifically targeted a priori, including Powassan and Usutu, were successfully enriched using MSSPE. MSSPE is simple, low cost, fast and deployable on either benchtop or portable nanopore sequencers, making this method directly applicable for diagnostic laboratory and field use., This study describes a new method that improves the sensitivity of viral detection compared with next-generation sequencing and enables the detection of emerging flaviviruses not specifically targeted a priori. Metagenomic sequencing with spiked primer enrichment is simple, low cost, fast and deployable on either benchtop or portable nanopore sequencers, making it applicable for diagnostic laboratory and field use.

Summary Background The 2018 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in Equateur Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, began on May 8, and was declared over on July 24; it resulted in 54 documented cases and 33 deaths. We did a retrospective genomic characterisation of the outbreak and assessed potential therapeutic agents and vaccine (medical countermeasures). Methods We used target-enrichment sequencing to produce Ebola virus genomes from samples obtained in the 2018 Equateur Province outbreak. Combining these genomes with genomes associated with known outbreaks from GenBank, we constructed a maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree. In-silico analyses were used to assess potential mismatches between the outbreak strain and the probes and primers of diagnostic assays and the antigenic sites of the experimental rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccine and therapeutics. An in-vitro flow cytometry assay was used to assess the binding capability of the individual components of the monoclonal antibody cocktail ZMapp. Findings A targeted sequencing approach produced 16 near-complete genomes. Phylogenetic analysis of these genomes and 1011 genomes from GenBank revealed a distinct cluster, confirming a new Ebola virus variant, for which we propose the name “Tumba”. This new variant appears to have evolved at a slower rate than other Ebola virus variants (0·69 × 10−3 substitutions per site per year with “Tumba” vs 1·06 × 10−3 substitutions per site per year without “Tumba”). We found few sequence mismatches in the assessed assay target regions and antigenic sites. We identified nine amino acid changes in the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein, of which one resulted in reduced binding of the 13C6 antibody within the ZMapp cocktail. Interpretation Retrospectively, we show the feasibility of using genomics to rapidly characterise a new Ebola virus variant within the timeframe of an outbreak. Phylogenetic analysis provides further indications that these variants are evolving at differing rates. Rapid in-silico analyses can direct in-vitro experiments to quickly assess medical countermeasures. Funding Defense Biological Product Assurance Office .

Infectious disease outbreaks can quickly become global in what has increasingly become a closely interconnected world, influenced by what is considered to be an unprecedented era of technological, demographic, and climatic change [...]

High-throughput serological tests that can detect neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are desirable for serosurveillance and vaccine efficacy evaluation. Although the conventional neutralization test (cVNT) remains the gold standard to confirm the presence of neutralizing antibodies in sera, the test is too labour-intensive for massive screening programs and less reproducible as live virus and cell culture is involved. Here, we performed an independent evaluation of a commercially available surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT, GenScript cPass™) that can be done without biosafety level 3 containment in less than 2 hours. When using the cVNT and a Luminex multiplex immunoassay (MIA) as reference, the sVNT obtained a sensitivity of 94% (CI 90-96%) on a panel of 317 immune sera that were obtained from hospitalized and mild COVID-19 cases from Belgium and a sensitivity of 89% (CI 81-93%) on a panel of 184 healthcare workers from the Democratic Republic of Congo. We also found strong antibody titer correlations (rs>0.8) among the different techniques used. In conclusion, our evaluation suggests that the sVNT could be a powerful tool to monitor/detect neutralising antibodies in cohort and population studies. The technique could be especially useful for vaccine evaluation studies in sub-Saharan Africa where the basic infrastructure to perform cVNTs is lacking.

Background Epidemic arbovirus transmission occurs among humans by mosquito bites and the sylvatic transmission cycles involving non-human primates (NHPs) still exists. However, limited data are available on the extent in NHPs infections and their role. In this study, we have developed and validated a high-throughput serological screening tool to study the circulation of multiple arboviruses that represent a significant threat to human health, in NHPs in Central Africa. Methodology/Principal findings Recombinant proteins NS1, envelope domain-3 (DIII) for the dengue (DENV), yellow fever (YFV), usutu (USUV), west nile (WNV) and zika (ZIKV) and envelope 2 for the chikungunya (CHIKV) and o'nyong-nyong (ONNV) were coupled to Luminex beads to detect IgG directed against these viruses. Evaluation of test performance was made using 161 human sera of known arboviral status (66 negative and 95 positive). The sensitivity and specificity of each antigen were determined by statistical methods and ROC curves (except for ONNV and USUV). All NS1 antigens (except NS1-YFV), CHIKV-E2 and WNV-DIII had sensitivities and specificities > 95%. For the other DIII antigens, the sensitivity was low, limiting the interest of their use for seroprevalence studies. Few simultaneous reactions were observed between the CHIKV+ samples and the NS1 antigens to the non-CHIKV arboviruses. On the other hand, the DENV+ samples crossed-reacted with NS1 of all the DENV serotypes (1 to 4), as well as with ZIKV, USUV and to a lesser extent with YFV. A total of 3,518 samples of 29 species of NHPs from Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were tested against NS1 (except YFV), E2 (CHIKV/ONNV) and DIII (WNV) antigens. In monkeys (n = 2,100), the global prevalence varied between 2 and 5% for the ten antigens tested. When we stratified by monkey’s biotope, the arboreal species showed the highest reactivity. In monkeys from Cameroon, the highest IgG prevalence were observed against ONNV-E2 and DENV2-NS1 with 3.95% and 3.40% respectively and in DRC, ONNV-E2 (6.63%) and WNV-NS1 (4.42%). Overall prevalence was low in apes (n = 1,418): ranging from 0% for USUV-NS1 to 2.6% for CHIKV-E2. However, a very large disparity was observed among collection site and ape species, e.g. 18% (9/40) and 8.2% (4/49) of gorillas were reactive with CHIKV-E2 or WNV-NS1, respectively in two different sites in Cameroon. Conclusions/Significance We have developed a serological assay based on Luminex technology, with high specificity and sensitivity for simultaneous detection of antibodies to 10 antigens from 6 different arboviruses. This is the first study that evaluated on a large scale the presence of antibodies to arboviruses in NHPs to evaluate their role in sylvatic cycles. The overall low prevalence (, Author summary In the last decades, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, usutu and dengue viruses have (re)-emerged in different parts of the world and many of these outbreaks occur in resource-limited countries with limited or under-equipped health facilities and where endemic malaria with very similar clinical symptoms confounds surveillance. Most arboviruses that circulate today likely originated in Africa where sporadic human outbreaks occur. In this work, we developed a serological tool that allows simultaneous detection of IgG antibodies to multiple arbovirus in a biological sample. With this highly sensitive and specific multiplex assay, we screened more than 3,500 samples collected from 29 species of monkeys and apes in Africa. We found a global IgG antibody prevalence of less than 5%. However, this seroprevalence varied by collection site, NPHs species and virus type. Given these findings, we concluded that African non-human primates are most likely not the reservoirs, but rather are intermediate hosts.

Early March 2019, health authorities of Matadi in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alerted a sudden increase in acute fever/arthralgia cases, prompting an outbreak investigation. We collected surveillance data, clinical data, and laboratory specimens from clinical suspects (for CHIKV-PCR/ELISA, malaria RDT), semi-structured interviews with patients/caregivers about perceptions and health seeking behavior, and mosquito sampling (adult/larvae) for CHIKV-PCR and estimation of infestation levels. The investigations confirmed a large CHIKV outbreak that lasted February–June 2019. The total caseload remained unknown due to a lack of systematic surveillance, but one of the two health zones of Matadi notified 2686 suspects. Of the clinical suspects we investigated (n = 220), 83.2% were CHIKV-PCR or IgM positive (acute infection). One patient had an isolated IgG-positive result (while PCR/IgM negative), suggestive of past infection. In total, 15% had acute CHIKV and malaria. Most adult mosquitoes and larvae (>95%) were Aedes albopictus. High infestation levels were noted. CHIKV was detected in 6/11 adult mosquito pools, and in 2/15 of the larvae pools. This latter and the fact that 2/6 of the CHIKV-positive adult pools contained only males suggests transovarial transmission. Interviews revealed that healthcare seeking shifted quickly toward the informal sector and self-medication. Caregivers reported difficulties to differentiate CHIKV, malaria, and other infectious diseases resulting in polypharmacy and high out-of-pocket expenditure. We confirmed a first major CHIKV outbreak in Matadi, with main vector Aedes albopictus. The health sector was ill-prepared for the information, surveillance, and treatment needs for such an explosive outbreak in a CHIKV-naïve population. Better surveillance systems (national level/sentinel sites) and point-of-care diagnostics for arboviruses are needed.

A diagnosis of COVID-19 is based on a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. Over the past year, PCR testing capacity has varied globally due to the availability of tests, and testing strategies have targeted mainly symptomatic individuals. Therefore, the spread of the virus is probably wider than the numbers reported by official surveillance systems that are based on PCR results. Serology tests detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, which start being measurable around 1–2 weeks after infection. They are used in seroprevalence studies to estimate the proportion of people in a population that has been infected, including asymptomatic infection. These studies are of particular importance in African countries, where reported testing and incidence are among the lowest in the world.

Background Behavioural risk factors for cholera are well established in rural and semi-urban contexts, but not in densely populated mega-cities in Sub-Saharan Africa. In November 2017, a cholera epidemic occurred in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where no outbreak had been recorded for nearly a decade. During this outbreak, we investigated context-specific risk factors for cholera in an urban setting among a population that is not frequently exposed to cholera. Methodology/Principal findings We recruited 390 participants from three affected health zones of Kinshasa into a 1:1 matched case control study. Cases were identified from cholera treatment centre admission records, while controls were recruited from the vicinity of the cases’ place of residence. We used standardized case report forms for the collection of socio-demographic and behavioural risk factors. We used augmented backward elimination in a conditional logistic regression model to identify risk factors. The consumption of sachet water was strongly associated with the risk of being a cholera case (p-value 0.019), which increased with increasing frequency of consumption from rarely (OR 2.2, 95% CI 0.9–5.2) to often (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.6–9.9) to very often (OR 4.1, 95% CI 1.0–16.7). Overall, more than 80% of all participants reported consumption of this type of drinking water. The risk factors funeral attendance and contact with someone suffering from diarrhoea showed a p-value of 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. No socio-demographic characteristics were associated with the risk of cholera. Conclusions/Significance Drinking water consumption from sachets, which are sold informally on the streets in most Sub-Saharan African cities, are an overlooked route of infection in urban cholera outbreaks. Outbreak response measures need to acknowledge context-specific risk factors to remain a valuable tool in the efforts to achieve national and regional targets to reduce the burden of cholera in Sub-Saharan Africa., Author summary Cholera is a diarrheal disease caused by ingestion of the Vibrio cholerae bacterium. Outbreaks in urban areas are becoming increasingly frequent in Sub-Saharan Africa. Risk factors for cholera have been studied in rural settings but not sufficiently in urban areas. Understanding context-specific risk factors is key for successful outbreak response. During a cholera outbreak in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo we were able to identify a previously unknown behavioural risk factor of particular relevance in urban settings–the consumption of drinking water from plastic sachets. Water sachets are sold on the streets of all major cities in Sub-Saharan Africa. It requires biting off an edge and sucking out the water, and we think that external contamination of these sachets was an important transmission route in the Kinshasa outbreak. Water sachets are predominantly consumed by socio-economically disadvantaged groups who lack piped water supply in their homes and have poor access to sanitary infrastructure. This makes our findings particularly relevant because these are the very populations who are at increased risk of getting and transmitting cholera. Health messaging and response measures should include consumption of water sachets as a potential risk factor during future cholera outbreaks in urban low-resource settings.

CITATION: Nachega, J. B. et al. 2020. The colliding epidemics of COVID-19, Ebola, and measles in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Lancet Global Health, doi:10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30281-3.

In the African context, there is a paucity of data on SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated COVID-19 in pregnancy. Given the endemicity of infections such as malaria, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it is important to evaluate coinfections with SARS-CoV-2 and their impact on maternal/infant outcomes. Robust research is critically needed to evaluate the effects of the added burden of COVID-19 in pregnancy, to help develop evidence-based policies toward improving maternal and infant outcomes. In this perspective, we briefly review current knowledge on the clinical features of COVID-19 in pregnancy; the risks of preterm birth and cesarean delivery secondary to comorbid severity; the effects of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection on the fetus/neonate; and in utero mother-to-child SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We further highlight the need to conduct multicountry surveillance as well as retrospective and prospective cohort studies across SSA. This will enable assessments of SARS-CoV-2 burden among pregnant African women and improve the understanding of the spectrum of COVID-19 manifestations in this population, which may be living with or without HIV, TB, and/or other coinfections/comorbidities. In addition, multicountry studies will allow a better understanding of risk factors and outcomes to be compared across countries and subregions. Such an approach will encourage and strengthen much-needed intra-African, south-to-south multidisciplinary and interprofessional research collaborations. The African Forum for Research and Education in Health’s COVID-19 Research Working Group has embarked upon such a collaboration across Western, Central, Eastern and Southern Africa.

Analysis reveals commercial tests for Ebola are too hard to come by in the current outbreak — sustain investment, urge Lieselotte Cnops, Kevin K. Arien and colleagues. Analysis reveals commercial tests for Ebola are too hard to come by in the current outbreak.

Although several experimental therapeutics for Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been developed, the safety and efficacy of the most promising therapies need to be assessed in the context of a randomized, controlled trial.We conducted a trial of four investigational therapies for EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where an outbreak began in August 2018. Patients of any age who had a positive result for Ebola virus RNA on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay were enrolled. All patients received standard care and were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to intravenous administration of the triple monoclonal antibody ZMapp (the control group), the antiviral agent remdesivir, the single monoclonal antibody MAb114, or the triple monoclonal antibody REGN-EB3. The REGN-EB3 group was added in a later version of the protocol, so data from these patients were compared with those of patients in the ZMapp group who were enrolled at or after the time the REGN-EB3 group was added (the ZMapp subgroup). The primary end point was death at 28 days.A total of 681 patients were enrolled from November 20, 2018, to August 9, 2019, at which time the data and safety monitoring board recommended that patients be assigned only to the MAb114 and REGN-EB3 groups for the remainder of the trial; the recommendation was based on the results of an interim analysis that showed superiority of these groups to ZMapp and remdesivir with respect to mortality. At 28 days, death had occurred in 61 of 174 patients (35.1%) in the MAb114 group, as compared with 84 of 169 (49.7%) in the ZMapp group (P = 0.007), and in 52 of 155 (33.5%) in the REGN-EB3 group, as compared with 79 of 154 (51.3%) in the ZMapp subgroup (P = 0.002). A shorter duration of symptoms before admission and lower baseline values for viral load and for serum creatinine and aminotransferase levels each correlated with improved survival. Four serious adverse events were judged to be potentially related to the trial drugs.Both MAb114 and REGN-EB3 were superior to ZMapp in reducing mortality from EVD. Scientifically and ethically sound clinical research can be conducted during disease outbreaks and can help inform the outbreak response. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; PALM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03719586.).

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-week projections made using data up to June 16, 2019, were, respectively, 2317 (95% PI: 2222, 2464); 2440 (95% PI: 2250, 2790); and 2544 (95% PI: 2273, 3205). The nine-week projection experienced some degradation with a daily error in the median forecast of 6.73 cases, while the six- and three-week projections were more reliable, with corresponding errors of 4.96 and 4.85 cases per day, respectively. Our findings suggest the Hawkes point process may serve as an easily-applied statistical model to predict EVD outbreak trajectories in near real-time to better inform decision-making and resource allocation during Ebola response efforts. Keywords: Ebola virus disease, Hawkes point process, Mathematical modeling, Democratic Republic of Congo, Compartmental models

Summary Background The real-time generation of information about pathogen genomes has become a vital goal for transmission analysis and characterisation in rapid outbreak responses. In response to the recently established genomic capacity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we explored the real-time generation of genomic information at the start of the 2018 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu Province. Methods We used targeted-enrichment sequencing to produce two coding-complete Ebola virus genomes 5 days after declaration of the EVD outbreak in North Kivu. Subsequent sequencing efforts yielded an additional 46 genomes. Genomic information was used to assess early transmission, medical countermeasures, and evolution of Ebola virus. Findings The genomic information demonstrated that the EVD outbreak in the North Kivu and Ituri Provinces was distinct from the 2018 EVD outbreak in Equateur Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Primer and probe mismatches to Ebola virus were identified in silico for all deployed diagnostic PCR assays, with the exception of the Cepheid GeneXpert GP assay. Interpretation The first two coding-complete genomes provided actionable information in real-time for the deployment of the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP Ebola virus envelope glycoprotein vaccine, available therapeutics, and sequence-based diagnostic assays. Based on the mutations identified in the Ebola virus surface glycoprotein (GP12) observed in all 48 genomes, deployed monoclonal antibody therapeutics (mAb114 and ZMapp) should be efficacious against the circulating Ebola virus variant. Rapid Ebola virus genomic characterisation should be included in routine EVD outbreak response procedures to ascertain efficacy of medical countermeasures. Funding Defense Biological Product Assurance Office.

The recent large outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have highlighted the need for rapid diagnostic tests to control this disease. In this study, we clinically evaluated a previously developed immunochromatography-based kit, QuickNaviTM-Ebola. During the 2018 outbreaks in DRC, 928 blood samples from EVD-suspected cases were tested with QuickNaviTM-Ebola and the WHO-approved GeneXpert. The sensitivity and specificity of QuickNaviTM-Ebola, estimated by comparing it to GeneXpert-confirmed cases, were 85% (68/80) and 99.8% (846/848), respectively. These results indicate the practical reliability of QuickNaviTM-Ebola for point-of-care diagnosis of EVD.

Background Ebola virus (EBOV) is a zoonotic filovirus spread through exposure to infected bodily fluids of a human or animal. Though EBOV is capable of causing severe disease, referred to as Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), individuals who have never been diagnosed with confirmed, probable or suspected EVD can have detectable EBOV antigen-specific antibodies in their blood. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with detectable antibody levels in the absence of an EVD diagnosis. Methodology Data was collected from September 2015 to August 2017 from 1,366 consenting individuals across four study sites in the DRC (Boende, Kabondo-Dianda, Kikwit, and Yambuku). Seroreactivity was determined to EBOV GP IgG using Zaire Ebola Virus Glycoprotein (EBOV GP antigen) ELISA kits (Alpha Diagnostic International, Inc.) in Kinshasa, DRC; any result above 4.7 units/mL was considered seroreactive. Among the respondents, 113 (8.3%) were considered seroreactive. Several zoonotic exposures were associated with EBOV seroreactivity after controlling for age, sex, healthcare worker status, location, and history of contact with an EVD case, namely: ever having contact with bats, ever having contact with rodents, and ever eating non-human primate meat. Contact with monkeys or non-human primates was not associated with seroreactivity. Conclusions This analysis suggests that some zoonotic exposures that have been linked to EVD outbreaks can also be associated with EBOV GP seroreactivity in the absence of diagnosed EVD. Future investigations should seek to clarify the relationships between zoonotic exposures, seroreactivity, asymptomatic infection, and EVD., Author summary Ebola virus (EBOV) is spread through exposure to infected bodily fluids of a human or animal. While EBOV can lead to a severe disease, Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), it is possible for individuals to have anti-EBOV antibodies without ever getting sick with EVD. Seroreactivity (the detection of antigen-specific antibodies) suggests that that person has been exposed to EBOV or a similar virus in the past. Our study looked for seroreactive individuals who have never received an EVD diagnosis in four sites across the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Then we checked if animal exposures previously linked to EVD were more common among seroreactive individuals than non-seroreactive individuals. Among respondents from all four sites, 113 (8.3%) were seroreactive to EBOV. Additionally, contact with bats, rodents, and eating non-human primate meat were associated with seroreactivity, indicating these factors may be predictors of undocumented EBOV exposure events. These findings show that some EVD risk factors may be associated with EBOV seroreactivity without EVD diagnosis. Future research is needed to clarify the relationships between zoonotic exposures, seroreactivity, asymptomatic infection, and EVD.

International audience; Ten days after the declaration of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, rapid identification of the species Zaire Ebola virus using partial gene amplification and nanopore sequencing backed up the use of the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-Zaire Ebola virus vaccine in the recommended ring vaccination strategy.

Background\ud \ud On May 8, 2018, the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo reported an outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Équateur Province in the northwest of the country. The remoteness of most affected communities and the involvement of an urban centre connected to the capital city and neighbouring countries makes this outbreak the most complex and high risk ever experienced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We provide early epidemiological information arising from the ongoing investigation of this outbreak.\ud Methods\ud \ud We classified cases as suspected, probable, or confirmed using national case definitions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo Ministère de la Santé Publique. We investigated all cases to obtain demographic characteristics, determine possible exposures, describe signs and symptoms, and identify contacts to be followed up for 21 days. We also estimated the reproduction number and projected number of cases for the 4-week period from May 25, to June 21, 2018.\ud Findings\ud \ud As of May 30, 2018, 50 cases (37 confirmed, 13 probable) of Zaire ebolavirus were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 21 (42%) were reported in Bikoro, 25 (50%) in Iboko, and four (8%) in Wangata health zones. Wangata is part of Mbandaka, the urban capital of Équateur Province, which is connected to major national and international transport routes. By May 30, 2018, 25 deaths from Ebola virus disease had been reported, with a case fatality ratio of 56% (95% CI 39–72) after adjustment for censoring. This case fatality ratio is consistent with estimates for the 2014–16 west African Ebola virus disease epidemic (p=0·427). The median age of people with confirmed or probable infection was 40 years (range 8–80) and 30 (60%) were male. The most commonly reported signs and symptoms in people with confirmed or probable Ebola virus disease were fever (40 [95%] of 42 cases), intense general fatigue (37 [90%] of 41 cases), and loss of appetite (37 [90%] of 41 cases). Gastrointestinal symptoms were frequently reported, and 14 (33%) of 43 people reported haemorrhagic signs. Time from illness onset and hospitalisation to sample testing decreased over time. By May 30, 2018, 1458 contacts had been identified, of which 746 (51%) remained under active follow-up. The estimated reproduction number was 1·03 (95% credible interval 0·83–1·37) and the cumulative case incidence for the outbreak by June 21, 2018, is projected to be 78 confirmed cases (37–281), assuming heterogeneous transmissibility.\ud Interpretation\ud \ud The ongoing Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has similar epidemiological features to previous Ebola virus disease outbreaks. Early detection, rapid patient isolation, contact tracing, and the ongoing vaccination programme should sufficiently control the outbreak. The forecast of the number of cases does not exceed the current capacity to respond if the epidemiological situation does not change. The information presented, although preliminary, has been essential in guiding the ongoing investigation and response to this outbreak.

Monkeypox is a zoonotic disease caused by a virus member of the genus Orthopoxvirus and is endemic to Central and Western African countries. Previous work has identified two geographically disjuct clades of monkeypox virus based on the analysis of a few genomes coupled with epidemiological and clinical analyses, however, environmental and geographic causes of this differentiation have not been explored. Here, we expand previous phylogenetic studies by analyzing a larger set of monkeypox virus genomes originating throughout Sub-Saharan Africa to identify possible biogeographic barriers associated with genetic differentiation, and projected ecological niche models onto environmental conditions at three periods in the past to explore the potential role of climate oscillations in the evolution of the two primary clades. Analyses supported the separation of the Congo Basin and West Africa clades, the Congo Basin clade shows much shorter branches, which likely indicate a more recent diversification of isolates within this clade. The area between the Sanaga and Cross Rivers divides the two clades and the Dahomey Gap seems to have also served as a barrier within the West African clade. Contraction of areas with suitable environments for monkeypox virus during the Last Glacial Maximum, suggests that the Congo Basin clade of monkeypox virus experienced a severe bottleneck and has since expanded its geographic range.

Introduction: As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak. Methods: We collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018–2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks. Results: As of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013–2016 West African outbreak. Conclusion: The difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak. Keywords: Ebola virus disease, Outbreak, Mathematical modeling, Geospatial, Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa

This assay identified new simian immunodeficiency viruses in primate bushmeat., Like most emerging infectious disease viruses, HIV is also of zoonotic origin. To assess the risk for cross-species transmission of simian immunodeficiency viruses (SIVs) from nonhuman primates to humans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, we collected 330 samples derived from nonhuman primate bushmeat at 3 remote forest sites. SIV prevalences were estimated by using a novel high-throughput assay that included 34 HIV and SIV antigens in a single well. Overall, 19% of nonhuman primate bushmeat was infected with SIVs, and new SIV lineages were identified. Highest SIV prevalences were seen in red-tailed guenons (25%) and Tshuapa red colobus monkeys (24%), representing the most common hunted primate species, thus increasing the likelihood for cross-species transmission. Additional studies are needed to determine whether other SIVs crossed the species barrier. With the newly developed assay, large-scale screening against many antigens is now easier and faster.

International audience; BackgroundThe seventh reported outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the equatorial African country of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began on July 26, 2014, as another large EVD epidemic continued to spread in West Africa. Simultaneous reports of EVD in equatorial and West Africa raised the question of whether the two outbreaks were linked.MethodsWe obtained data from patients in the DRC, using the standard World Health Organization clinical-investigation form for viral hemorrhagic fevers. Patients were classified as having suspected, probable, or confirmed EVD or a non-EVD illness. Blood samples were obtained for polymerase-chain-reaction–based diagnosis, viral isolation, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis.ResultsThe outbreak began in Inkanamongo village in the vicinity of Boende town in Équateur province and has been confined to that province. A total of 69 suspected, probable, or confirmed cases were reported between July 26 and October 7, 2014, including 8 cases among health care workers, with 49 deaths. As of October 7, there have been approximately six generations of cases of EVD since the outbreak began. The reported weekly case incidence peaked in the weeks of August 17 and 24 and has since fallen sharply. Genome sequencing revealed Ebola virus (EBOV, Zaire species) as the cause of this outbreak. A coding-complete genome sequence of EBOV that was isolated during this outbreak showed 99.2% identity with the most closely related variant from the 1995 outbreak in Kikwit in the DRC and 96.8% identity to EBOV variants that are currently circulating in West Africa.ConclusionsThe current EVD outbreak in the DRC has clinical and epidemiologic characteristics that are similar to those of previous EVD outbreaks in equatorial Africa. The causal agent is a local EBOV variant, and this outbreak has a zoonotic origin different from that in the 2014 epidemic in West Africa. (Funded by the Centre International de Recherches Médicales de Franceville and others.)

Four types of human T cell lymphotropic viruses (HTLV) have been described (HTLV-1 to HTLV-4) with three of them having closely related simian virus analogues named STLV-1, −2, and −3. To assess the risk of cross-species transmissions of STLVs from nonhuman primates to humans in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a total of 330 samples, derived from primate bushmeat, were collected at remote forest sites where people rely on bushmeat for subsistence. STLV prevalences and genetic diversity were estimated by PCR and sequence analysis of tax-rex and LTR fragments. Overall, 7.9% of nonhuman primate bushmeat is infected with STLVs. We documented new STLV-1 and STLV-3 variants in six out of the seven species tested and showed for the first time STLV infection in C. mona wolfi, C. ascanius whitesidei, L. aterrimus aterrimus, C. angolensis, and P. tholloni. Our results provide increasing evidence that the diversity and geographic distribution of PTLVs are much greater than previously thought.