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Abstract: As the most excellent indicator for hydrological cycle and a central link to water-balance calculations, the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources systems since the climate change has been becoming more pronounced. In this study, we conduct an investigation on the spatial and temporal changes in ET0 of the Haihe River Basin in present and future stages. The ET0 in the past five decades (1961–2010) are calculated by the Penman–Monteith method with historical climatic variables in 40 sites while the ET0 estimation for the future period of 2011–2099 is based on the related climatic variables projected by Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections in Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach. Results can be summarized for the present and future as follows. (1) No coherent spatial patterns in ET0 changes are seen in the whole basin. Half of the stations distributed mainly in the eastern and southeastern plain regions present significant negative trends, while only 3 stations in the western mountainous and plateau basin show significant positive trends. Radiation is mainly responsible for the ET0 change in the southern and eastern basin, whereas relative humidity and wind speed are the leading factors in the eastern coastal and north parts. (2) BMA ensemble method is competent to produce lower bias in comparison with other common methods in this basin. Future spatiotemporal ET0 pattern analysis by means of the BMA method based on the ensembles of four CGCMs suggested that although the spatial patterns under three scenarios are different in the forthcoming two decades, generally increasing trends can be found in the 21st century, which is mainly attributed to the significant increasing temperature. In addition, the implication of future ET0 change in agriculture and local water resources is discussed as an extension of this work. The results can provide beneficial reference and comprehensive information to understand the impact of climate change on the future water balance and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management in the Haihe River Basin. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Evaluate ET estimation uncertainty derived from remote sensing ET models. • Discuss ET estimation uncertainty derived from reanalysis products. • Investigate the effect of the uncertainty in eddy covariance tower observations. Since evapotranspiration (ET) is the intrinsic link between global energy and water cycle, remote sensing-based models have been developed for regional and global scale ET on heterogeneous land surface over the past four decades. In view of the significantly different physical mechanisms and mathematical expressions among remote sensing ET models as well as data availability and quality control process among the model input products, it is necessary to investigate the uncertainties of the multiple sources in actual ET estimation. Here, three remote sensing ET models, including the PT-DTsR model, the PM-mod model and the PML model, were simultaneously driven by three meteorological reanalysis products, resulting in nine calculation schemes to analyze the combined effect of the models and the input datasets. The Sobol' sensitivity method was also adopted for identifying the influential model parameters and in turn understanding the model process. The results indicated that estimates from nine calculation schemes showed great differences in the magnitude and temporal variation, explaining 20–50% of ET variability over all sites. Additionally, schemes compared with both uncorrected and corrected energy balance observations, as well as schemes using meteorological variables from three reanalysis products and Eddy Covariance tower observations, verified that the uncertainties in latent heat flux data observations caused by the energy budget mis-closure problem and spatial scale mismatch have propagated into the ET estimation. Our study is a beneficial reference for the uncertainties in remote sensing-based methods, and thus can provide guidance for the future development of ET models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the only connecting term between water balance and energy budget in the earth-atmospheric system, evapotranspiration ( ET ) is considered the most excellent indicator for the activity for the water and energy cycle. Under the background of global change, regional ET estimates, components partitioning as well as their spatial and temporal patterns recognition are of great importance in understanding the hydrological processes and improving water management practices. This is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of most sensitive and vulnerable region in response to the environment change in the earth. In this study, with flux site observation data and monthly ET data from the monthly water balance method incorporating the terrestrial water storage changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite (GRACE) production as the multiple validations, the long-term daily ET in the TP was retrieved by a modified Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) model with considering evapotranspiration over snow covered area during 1982–2012. The spatial and temporal changes of partitioned three components of ET , i.e., soil evaporation ( E s ), transpiration through the stomata of plant ( E c ) and canopy interception ( E i ), were investigated in the TP. Meanwhile, how the ET components contribute to ET changes and respond to the change in environmental factors in the TP was revealed and discussed. The results indicate that E s dominates ET in most areas of the TP with the mean annual ratio of 65.7%, except southeastern regions where the vegetation coverage is high. Although regional average ET and three main components all present obvious increase trends during the past decades, high spatial heterogeneity for their trends are identified in the TP. Moreover, a mixed changing pattern can be apparently found for E s in southeastern area, E c and E i in northwestern and southeastern area. Spatially, the ET variation are mainly attributed to change in E s , followed by E c and E i . In addition, compared with evaporation-related meteorological variables, precipitation and leaf area index (LAI) provide the more dominated contributions to the changes of ET and E i in the TP, while LAI is overwhelming contribution factor for E c changes. As for E s changes, although precipitation play the important role, the effects of other factors are also non-negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate estimation of global evapotranspiration (ET) is critical to understand the water and energy cycles in the Earth system. Satellite-driven ET algorithms serve as an effective way to estimate the global ET. However, many algorithms have been designed independently of water balance constraints, which potentially limit their ability to estimate ET in water-limited and high interception regions. As ET remains one of the most uncertain terms in the global water budgets, incorporating water balance constraints into algorithms should improve the performance of ET estimates. In this study, we developed a general solution (denoted PEW) based on the proportionality hypothesis to incorporate available water control into the widely used Priestley Taylor-Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) ET algorithm. Simulated performances of the PEW model and PT-JPL algorithm were evaluated against 106 FLUXNET eddy covariance (EC) towers data at the site scale. Meanwhile, model results were compared at the global scale with the means of the widely used ET products. We found that the PEW model has smaller errors than the original PT-JPL algorithm, with the greatest improvements in water-limited regions and areas characterized by the high interception. Moreover, by incorporating the water balance constraints into the ET algorithm, the PEW model has the ability to distinguish variations in ET affected by El Nino-Southern Oscillation. In summary, our study offers a convincing evidence regarding the incorporation of water balance constraints into remote sensing algorithms for more accurately mapping global terrestrial ET with an enhanced understanding of ET variation under climate change. This model is the first of its kind among remote-sensing models to provide global land ET estimation with the proportionality hypothesis-based water balance constraints. • We develop a new ET algorithm based on proportionality hypothesis and PT-JPL model. • A water balance constraint is introduced to this ET algorithm and applied globally. • The new ET algorithm is validated globally and shows better performance than PT-JPL model. • ET improved most in water-limited regions and areas having a high interception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]