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The nutrient-water color paradigm is a framework to characterize lake trophic status by relating lake primary productivity to both nutrients and water color, the colored component of dissolved organic carbon. Total phosphorus (TP), a limiting nutrient, and water color, a strong light attenuator, influence lake chlorophyll a concentrations (CHL). But, these relationships have been shown in previous studies to be highly variable, which may be related to differences in lake and catchment geomorphology, the forms of nutrients and carbon entering the system, and lake community composition. Because many of these factors vary across space it is likely that lake nutrient and water color relationships with CHL exhibit spatial autocorrelation, such that lakes near one another have similar relationships compared to lakes further away. Including this spatial dependency in models may improve CHL predictions and clarify how well the nutrient-water color paradigm applies to lakes distributed across diverse landscape settings. However, few studies have explicitly examined spatial heterogeneity in the effects of TP and water color together on lake CHL. In this study, we examined spatial variation in TP and water color relationships with CHL in over 800 north temperate lakes using spatially-varying coefficient models (SVC), a robust statistical method that applies a Bayesian framework to explore space-varying and scale-dependent relationships. We found that TP and water color relationships were spatially autocorrelated and that allowing for these relationships to vary by individual lakes over space improved the model fit and predictive performance as compared to models that did not vary over space. The magnitudes of TP effects on CHL differed across lakes such that a 1 μg/L increase in TP resulted in increased CHL ranging from 2–24 μg/L across lake locations. Water color was not related to CHL for the majority of lakes, but there were some locations where water color had a positive effect such that a unit increase in water color resulted in a 2 μg/L increase in CHL and other locations where it had a negative effect such that a unit increase in water color resulted in a 2 μg/L decrease in CHL. In addition, the spatial scales that captured variation in TP and water color effects were different for our study lakes. Variation in TP–CHL relationships was observed at intermediate distances (~20 km) compared to variation in water color–CHL relationships that was observed at regional distances (~200 km). These results demonstrate that there are lake-to-lake differences in the effects of TP and water color on lake CHL and that this variation is spatially structured. Quantifying spatial structure in these relationships furthers our understanding of the variability in these relationships at macroscales and would improve model prediction of chlorophyll a to better meet lake management goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catchment land uses, particularly agriculture and urban uses, have long been recognized as major drivers of nutrient concentrations in surface waters. However, few simple models have been developed that relate the amount of catchment land use to downstream freshwater nutrients. Nor are existing models applicable to large numbers of freshwaters across broad spatial extents such as regions or continents. This research aims to increase model performance by exploring three factors that affect the relationship between land use and downstream nutrients in freshwater: the spatial extent for measuring land use, hydrologic connectivity, and the regional differences in both the amount of nutrients and effects of land use on them. We quantified the effects of these three factors that relate land use to lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) in 346 north temperate lakes in 7 regions in Michigan, USA. We used a linear mixed modeling framework to examine the importance of spatial extent, lake hydrologic class, and region on models with individual lake nutrients as the response variable, and individual land use types as the predictor variables. Our modeling approach was chosen to avoid problems of multi-collinearity among predictor variables and a lack of independence of lakes within regions, both of which are common problems in broad-scale analyses of freshwaters. We found that all three factors influence land use-lake nutrient relationships. The strongest evidence was for the effect of lake hydrologic connectivity, followed by region, and finally, the spatial extent of land use measurements. Incorporating these three factors into relatively simple models of land use effects on lake nutrients should help to improve predictions and understanding of land use-lake nutrient interactions at broad scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake phosphorus concentrations are strongly influenced by the surrounding landscape that generates phosphorus loads and water inflow to lakes, and the physical characteristics of the lake that determine the fate of these inputs. In addition, the presence, connectivity, and configuration of upstream lakes and wetlands likely affect downstream lake phosphorus concentrations. These freshwater landscape features have only sometimes been incorporated into phosphorus loading models, perhaps because of the need for spatially-explicit approaches that account for their location and hydrologic configuration. In this paper, we developed a lake phosphorus concentration model that includes three modules to estimate phosphorus loading, water inflow, and phosphorus retention, respectively. In modeling phosphorus loading and water inflow, we used a spatially-explicit approach to address their export at sources and their attenuation along flow-paths. We used 161 headwater lakes for model calibration and 28 headwater lakes for model validation. Using the calibrated model, we examined the effects of upstream lakes and wetlands on downstream lake phosphorus concentrations. To examine the effects of upstream lakes, we compared the output of the calibrated model for three additional datasets (208 lakes in total) that contained increasing area of upstream lakes. To examine the effect of upstream wetlands, we used the calibrated model to compare flow-path cell series that contained wetlands and those that did not. In addition, we simulated catchments in which all wetlands were converted to forest and recalculated downstream lake phosphorus concentrations. We found that upstream lakes decreased the phosphorus concentrations in downstream lakes; and, counter-intuitively, we found that wetlands increased phosphorus concentrations in most downstream lakes. The latter result was due to the fact that although wetlands reduced phosphorus loads to downstream lakes, they also reduced water inflow to downstream lakes and thus increased the phosphorus concentration of inflows to lakes. Our results suggest that when modeling lake phosphorus concentrations, freshwater features of the landscape and their spatial arrangement should be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We examined the ability of lake and landscape features to predict a variety of macrophyte cover metrics using 54 north temperate lakes. We quantified submersed cover, emergent cover, floating leaf cover, Eurasian watermilfoil cover and total macrophyte cover. Measured lake features included lake physio-chemical and morphometric variables and landscape features included hydrologic, catchment and land use/cover variables. Univariate regression analyses demonstrated that these macrophyte cover metrics are predicted by a wide range of predictor variables, most commonly by: Secchi disk depth, maximum or mean depth, catchment morphometry, road density and the proportion of urban or agricultural land use/cover in the riparian zone or catchment (r 2 =0.06–0.46). Using a combination of lake and landscape features in multiple regressions, we were able to explain 29–55% of the variation in macrophyte cover metrics. Total macrophyte cover and submersed cover were related to Secchi disk depth and mean depth, whereas the remaining metrics were best predicted by including at least one land use/cover variable (road density, proportion local catchment agriculture land use/cover, proportion cumulative catchment urban land use/cover, or proportion riparian agriculture land use/cover). The two main conclusions from our research are: (1) that different macrophyte growth forms and species are predicted by a different suite of variables and thus should be examined separately, and (2) that anthropogenic landscape features may override patterns in natural landscape or local features and are important in predicting present-day macrophytes in lakes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is a well‐recognized threat to lake ecosystems and, although there likely exists geographic variation in the sensitivity of lakes to climate, broad‐scale, long‐term studies are needed to understand this variation. Further, the potential mediating role of local to regional ecological context on these responses is not well documented. In this study, we examined relationships between climate and water clarity in 365 lakes from 1981 to 2010 in two distinct regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. We asked (1) How do climate–water‐clarity relationships vary across watersheds and between two geographic regions? and (2) Do certain characteristics make some lakes more climate sensitive than others? We found strong differences in climate–water‐clarity relationships both within and across the two regions. For example, in the northeastern region, water clarity was often negatively correlated with summer precipitation (median correlation = −0.32, n = 160 lakes), but was not correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = 0.09, n = 205 lakes). In the midwestern region, water clarity was not related to summer precipitation (median correlation = −0.04), but was often negatively correlated with summer average maximum temperature (median correlation = −0.18). There were few strong relationships between local and sub‐regional ecological context and a lake's sensitivity to climate. For example, ecological context variables explained just 16–18% of variation in summer precipitation sensitivity, which was most related to total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, lake depth, and hydrology in both regions. Sensitivity to summer maximum temperature was even less predictable in both regions, with 4% or less of variation explained using all ecological context variables. Overall, we identified differences in the climate sensitivity of lakes across regions and found that local and sub‐regional ecological context weakly influences the sensitivity of lakes to climate. Our findings suggest that local to regional drivers may combine to influence the sensitivity of lake ecosystems to climate change, and that sensitivities among lakes are highly variable within and across regions. This variability suggests that lakes are sensitive to different aspects of climate change (temperature vs. precipitation) and that responses of lakes to climate are heterogeneous and complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Within a lake district of relatively homogeneous geomorphology, the responses of lakes to climate are influenced by the complexity of the hydrogeologic setting, position in the landscape, and lake-specific biological and physical features. We examined lake chemical responses to drought in surface water- and groundwater-dominated districts to address two general questions. (1) Are spatial patterns in chemical dynamics among lakes uniform and synchronous within a lake district, suggesting broad geomorphic controls; variable in a spatially explicit pattern, with synchrony related to landscape position, suggesting hydrologic flowpath controls; or spatially unstructured and asynchronous, suggesting overriding control by lake-specific factors? (2) Are lake responses to drought a simple function of precipitation quantity or are they dictated by more complex interactions among climate, unique lake features, and hydrologic setting? 2. Annual open-water means for epilimnetic concentrations of chloride, calcium, sulfate, ANC, DOC, total nitrogen, silica, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a measured between 1982 and 1995 were assembled for lakes in the Red Lake and ELA districts of north-western Ontario, the Muskoka – Dorset district in south-central Ontario, and the Northern Highland district of Wisconsin. Within each district, we compared responses of lakes classified by landscape position into highland or lowland, depending on relative location within the local to regional hydrologic flow system. Synchrony, defined as a measure of the similarity in inter-annual dynamics among lakes within a district, was quantified as the Pearson product-moment correlation (r) between two lakes with observations paired by year. To determine if solute concentrations were directly related to interannual variations in precipitation quantity, we used regression analysis to fit district-wide slopes describing the relationship between each chemical variable and annual (June to May) and October to May (Oct–May) precipitation. 3. Among lakes in each of the three Ontario districts, the pattern of chemical response to interannual shifts in precipitation was spatially uniform. In these surface water- dominated districts, solute concentrations were generally a simple function of precipitation. Conservative solutes, like calcium and chloride, tended to be more synchronous and were negatively related to precipitation. Solutes such as silica, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a, which are influenced by in-lake processes, were less synchronous and relationships with precipitation tended to be positive or absent. 4. In the groundwater-dominated Northern Highland lakes of Wisconsin, we observed spatial structure in drought response, with lowland lakes more synchronous than highland lakes. However, there was no evidence for a direct relationship between any solute and precipitation. Instead, increases in the concentration of the conservative ion calcium during drought were not followed by a symmetrical return to pre-drought conditions when precipitation returned to normal or above-average values. 5. For calcium, time lags in recovery from drought appeared related to hydrologic features in a complex way. In the highland Crystal Lake, calcium concentrations tracked lake stage inversely, with a return to pre-drought concentrations and lake stage five years after the drought. This pattern suggests strong evaporative controls. In contrast, after five years of normal precipitation, calcium in the lowland Sparkling Lake had not returned to pre-drought conditions despite a rebound in lake stage. This result suggests that calcium concentrations in lowland lakes were controlled more by regional groundwater flowpaths, which track climatic signals more slowly. 6. Temporal dynamics driven by climate were most similar among lakes in districts that have a relatively simple hydrology, such as ELA. Where hydrologic setting was more complex, as in the groundwater-dominated Northern Highland of Wisconsin, the expression of climate signals in lakes showed lags and spatial patterns related to landscape position. In general, we expect that landscape and lake-specific factors become increasingly important in lake districts with more heterogeneous hydrogeology, topography or land use. These strong chemical responses to climate need to be considered when interpreting the responses of lakes to other regional disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]