Search

Understanding grounding line dynamics is critical for projecting glacier evolution and sea level rise. Observations from satellite radar interferometry reveal rapid grounding line migration forced by oceanic tides that are several kilometers larger than predicted by hydrostatic equilibrium, indicating the transition from grounded to floating ice is more complex than previously thought. Recent studies suggest seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may play a role in driving rapid ice loss. Here, we investigate its impact on the evolution of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet model. We compare model results with observed changes in grounding line position, velocity, and ice elevation between 2010 and 2022. We match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning using 3‐km‐long seawater intrusion that drive peak ice melt rates of 50 m/yr; but we cannot obtain the same agreement without seawater intrusion. Including seawater intrusion in glacier modeling will increase the sensitivity to ocean warming. Plain Language Summary: Relatively warm seawater melts marine‐terminating glaciers from below. Recent observations suggest that seawater flows below grounded ice at high tide. The presence of seawater at this boundary, referred to as seawater intrusion, has the potential to increase glacier mass loss. We test this hypothesis on Petermann Glacier, Greenland, using an ice sheet flow model. We run the model to reconstruct the glacier's behavior from 2010 to 2022 with and without seawater intrusion. We compare the results with satellite observations of velocity, grounding line position, and ice thinning. When we use enhanced ice melt rates from kilometer‐scale seawater intrusion, we match the observed retreat, speed up, and thinning. When we do not, the model fails to replicate the observations. Seawater intrusion may play a critical role in glacier evolution. Adding this process to ice flow models will increase their sensitivity to ocean warming and projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. Key Points: Ice melt caused by seawater intrusion in the grounding zone explains the observed grounding line retreat of Petermann GlacierWithout seawater intrusion in the grounding zone, we do not replicate the full extent of observed retreatIncluding seawater intrusion in the grounding zone increases glacier mass loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present understanding of Greenland's subglacial geology is derived mostly from interpolation of geologic mapping of its ice‐free margins and unconstrained by geophysical data. Here we refine the extent of its geologic provinces by synthesizing geophysical constraints on subglacial geology from seismic, gravity, magnetic and topographic data. North of 72°N, no province clearly extends across the whole island, leaving three distinct subglacial regions yet to be reconciled with margin geology. Geophysically coherent anomalies and apparent province boundaries are adjacent to the onset of faster ice flow at both Petermann Glacier and the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Separately, based on their subaerial expression, dozens of unusually long, straight and sub‐parallel subglacial valleys cross Greenland's interior and are not yet resolved by current syntheses of its subglacial topography. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland Ice Sheet obscures the rocks beneath 79% of Greenland. By necessity, scientists have relied mostly on studying the rocks exposed along Greenland's edge to understand the island's interior geology. We examine geophysical data from seismometers on the ground, satellites that measure Earth's gravity and magnetic fields and surface topography, and aircraft that measure those same properties and ice thickness. We draw a new map of Greenland's geology beneath the ice sheet by examining where those data show similar signals regarding the nature of the underlying rock, and where they could be related to mapped rock exposures. We also find evidence of some areas with geophysical expressions that are distinct from the rocks found at the island's edges. Some geologic structures, which are entirely covered by ice, may affect how ice flows from Greenland's vast interior toward its coast. Finally, we identify many valleys beneath the ice that are very long and often aligned with each other, but which are not yet fully captured in present maps of the topography beneath the ice. Key Points: We produced a new synthesis of subglacial boundaries for Greenland's geologic provinces from seismic, gravity, magnetic and topography dataThree subglacial regions in central and northern Greenland cannot yet be reconciled with surface‐exposed geologic provincesWe find evidence for a large subglacial valley network that is not fully resolved by subglacial topography syntheses for Greenland [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A realistic initialization of ice flow models is critical for predicting future changes in ice sheet mass balance and their associated contribution to sea level rise. The initial thermal state of an ice sheet is particularly important, as it controls ice viscosity and basal conditions, thereby influencing the overall ice velocity. Englacial and subglacial conditions, however, remain poorly understood due to insufficient direct measurements, which complicate the initialization and validation of thermal models. Here, we investigate the impact of using different geothermal heat flux (GHF) datasets and vertical velocity profiles on the thermal state of the Antarctic ice sheet and compare our modeled temperatures to in situ measurements from 15 boreholes. We find that the temperature profile is more sensitive to vertical velocity than to GHF. The basal temperature of grounded ice and the amount of basal melting are influenced by both selection of GHF and vertical velocity. More importantly, we find that the standard approach, which consists of combining basal sliding speed and incompressibility to derive vertical velocities, provides reasonably good results in fast-flow regions (ice velocity >50 m yr -1) but performs poorly in slow-flow regions (ice velocity <50 m yr -1). Furthermore, the modeled temperature profiles in ice streams, where bed geometry is generated using a mass conservation approach, show better agreement with observed borehole temperatures compared to kriging-based bed geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, seasonal changes in sea ice cover have been found to elevate basal melt rates of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) calving front at sensitive regions. Melting at these sensitive regions has been found to impact ice sheet mass balance. However, the influence of these seasonally elevated basal melt rates on RIS flow variability is not yet fully understood. This paper aims to explore whether seasonal perturbations in basal melt rates of the RIS can explain intra-annual variations in ice flow measured by GNSS at four sites across the ice shelf. We use the automatic differentiation tool in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to identify regions of the RIS where changes in basal melt affect ice velocities at the GNSS sites. Next, we seasonally perturb Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation (MITgcm) basal melt rates in ISSM at these sensitive regions to try and replicate the GNSS ice flow observations. The GNSS observations display clear intra-annual velocity variability at the four sites, with two distinct peaks observed in austral summer and austral winter. We can replicate this intra-annual velocity variation for GNSS sites near the calving front by seasonally perturbing the basal melt rates at the identified sensitive regions of the ice shelf. We argue that the perturbed seasonal basal melt variability at sensitive regions along the calving front is a realistic scenario for the RIS. Thus, we suggest that the GNSS-recorded intra-annual velocity variations along the calving front could be partly driven by seasonal changes in basal melting today. We also try to replicate intra-annual velocity variability observed at the Siple Coast by seasonally perturbing basal melt rates at sensitive regions there. However, we are unable to replicate similar magnitudes of velocity variations to the GNSS measurements and suspect that the perturbed seasonal basal melt variability is unrealistic, with no observations of seasonally high basal melt rates at the Siple Coast grounding lines or pinning points. Thus, seasonal changes in basal melt cannot explain the observed intra-annual velocity variability at all the GNSS sites, and further work is needed. Our sensitivity maps highlight regions of the ice shelf where changes in basal melt most influence velocities, and are a valuable addition to fieldwork campaigns and modelling studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice sheet models are often initialized with data assimilation of present-day conditions, in which unknown model parameters are estimated using the inverse method. While assimilation of snapshot observations has been widely used for regional- and large-scale ice sheet simulations, data assimilation based on time-dependent data has recently started to emerge to constrain model parameters while capturing the transient evolution of the system. However, this method has been applied only to a few glaciers with fixed ice front positions, using spatially and temporally limited observations, and has not been applied to marine-terminating glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet that have been retreating over the last 30 years. In this study, we assimilate time series of surface velocity into a model of Kjer Glacier in West Greenland to better capture the observed acceleration over the past 3 decades. We compare snapshot and transient inverse methods and investigate the impact of initialization procedures on the parameters inferred, as well as model projections. We find that transient-calibrated simulations better capture past trends and better reproduce changes after the calibration period, even when a short period of observations is used. The results show the feasibility and clear benefits of a time-dependent data assimilation for initializing ice sheet models. This approach is now possible with the development of longer observational records, though it remains computationally challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many floating ice shelves in Antarctica buttress the ice streams feeding them, thereby reducing the discharge of icebergs into the ocean. The rate at which ice shelves calve icebergs and how fast they flow determine whether they advance, retreat, or remain stable, exerting a first-order control on ice discharge. To parameterize calving within ice sheet models, several empirical and physical calving "laws" have been proposed in the past few decades. Such laws emphasize dissimilar features, including along- and across-flow strain rates (the eigencalving law), a fracture yield criterion (the von Mises law), longitudinal stretching (the crevasse depth law), and a simple ice thickness threshold (the minimum thickness law), among others. Despite the multitude of established calving laws, these laws remain largely unvalidated for the Antarctic Ice Sheet, rendering it difficult to assess the broad applicability of any given law in Antarctica. We address this shortcoming through a set of numerical experiments that evaluate existing calving laws for 10 ice shelves around the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We utilize the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) and implement four calving laws under constant external forcing, calibrating the free parameter of each of these calving laws for each ice shelf by assuming that the current position of the ice front is in steady state and finding the set of parameters that best achieves this position over a simulation of 200 years. We find that, in general, the eigencalving and von Mises laws best reproduce observed calving front positions under the steady-state position assumption. These results will streamline future modeling efforts of Antarctic ice shelves by better informing the relevant physics of Antarctic-style calving on a shelf-by-shelf basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical modeling of ice sheet dynamics is a critical tool for projecting future sea-level rise. Among all the processes responsible for the loss of mass of the ice sheets, enhanced ice discharge triggered by the retreat of marine terminating glaciers is one of the key drivers. Numerical models of ice sheet flow are therefore required to include ice front migration in order to reproduce today's mass loss and be able to predict their future. However, the discontinuous nature of calving poses significant numerical challenge for accurately capturing the motion of the ice front. In this study, we explore different stabilization techniques combined with varying reinitialization strategies to enhance the numerical stability and accuracy of solving the level-set function, which tracks the position of the ice front. Through rigorous testing on an idealized domain with semicircular and a straight-line ice front, including scenarios with diverse front velocities, we assess the performance of these techniques. The findings contribute to advancing our ability to model ice sheet dynamics, specifically calving processes, and provide valuable insights into the most effective strategies for simulating and tracking the motion of the ice front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thwaites Glacier (TG) plays an important role in future sea-level rise (SLR) contribution from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent observations show that TG is losing mass, and its grounding zone is retreating. Previous modeling has produced a wide range of results concerning whether, when, and how rapidly further retreat will occur under continued warming. These differences arise at least in part from ill-constrained processes, including friction from the bed, and future atmosphere and ocean forcing affecting ice-shelf and grounding-zone buttressing. Here, we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) with a range of specifications of basal sliding behavior in response to varying ocean forcing. We find that basin-wide bed character strongly affects TG's response to sub-shelf melt by modulating how changes in driving stress are balanced by the bed as the glacier responds to external forcing. Resulting differences in dynamic thinning patterns alter modeled grounding-line retreat across Thwaites' catchment, affecting both modeled rates and magnitudes of SLR contribution from this critical sector of the ice sheet. Bed character introduces large uncertainties in projections of TG under equal external forcing, pointing to this as a crucial constraint needed in predictive models of West Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Greenland, 87% of the glacierized area terminates in the ocean, but mass lost at the ice‐ocean interface, or frontal ablation, has not yet been fully quantified. Using measurements and models we calculate frontal ablation of Greenland's 213 outlet and 537 peripheral glaciers and find a total frontal ablation of 481.8 ± 24.0 for 2000–2010 and 510.2 ± 18.6 Gt a−1 for 2010–2020. Ice discharge accounted for ∼90% of frontal ablation during both periods, while mass loss due to terminus retreat comprised the remainder. Only 16 glaciers were responsible for the majority (>50%) of frontal ablation from 2010 to 2020. These estimates, along with the climatic‐basal balance, allow for a more complete accounting of Greenland Ice Sheet and peripheral glacier mass balance. In total, Greenland accounted for ∼90% of Northern Hemisphere frontal ablation for 2000–2010 and 2010–2020. Plain Language Summary: We estimate the mass of ice lost from all Greenland glaciers that entered the ocean during each of the last two decades. This ice loss at the front of these marine‐terminating glaciers is called frontal ablation and is approximately equal to the mass of icebergs entering the ocean. Frontal ablation is important because 87% of glacier area in Greenland ends in the ocean, through 750 outlets, and previous work has only approximated frontal ablation. This study quantifies it for the first time, helping to close the mass budget for the Greenland Ice Sheet and better partition its mass balance into components. We find that Greenland accounts for ∼90% of all Northern Hemisphere frontal ablation and, of that contribution, just 17 glaciers for 2000–2010 and 16 glaciers for 2010–2020 account for more than half of total Greenland frontal ablation. Key Points: Frontal ablation of the Greenland Ice Sheet averaged 510.2 ± 18.6 Gt a−1 for 2010–2020, ∼90% of which came from ice dischargeThe frontal ablation we measured is larger than the total mass loss from the ice sheet, indicating a positive climatic‐basal balanceOnly 16 glaciers account for 50% of the total frontal ablation from the Greenland Ice Sheet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of frontal ablation from marine-terminating glaciers (i.e., mass lost at the calving face) is critical for constraining glacier mass balance, improving projections of mass change, and identifying the processes that govern frontal mass loss. Here, we discuss the challenges involved in computing frontal ablation and the unique issues pertaining to both glaciers and ice sheets. Frontal ablation estimates require numerous datasets, including glacier terminus area change, thickness, surface velocity, density, and climatic mass balance. Observations and models of these variables have improved over the past decade, but significant gaps and regional discrepancies remain, and better quantification of temporal variability in frontal ablation is needed. Despite major advances in satellite-derived large-scale datasets, large uncertainties remain with respect to ice thickness, depth-averaged velocities, and the bulk density of glacier ice close to calving termini or grounding lines. We suggest ways in which we can move toward globally complete frontal ablation estimates, highlighting areas where we need improved datasets and increased collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical ice sheet models use sliding laws to connect basal shear stress and ice velocity to simulate ice sliding. A sliding‐law parameter β2 is used to control Weertman's sliding law in numerical ice sheet models. Basal reflectivity derived from ice‐penetrating radar also provides information about frozen or thawed conditions underneath glaciers. To assess whether basal reflectivity can be used to constrain β2, we carry out statistical experiments between two recently published datasets: β2 inferred from three numerical ice sheet models (ISSM, Úa and STREAMICE) and airborne radar‐derived relative basal reflectivity from the AGASEA‐BBAS mission over Thwaites Glacier (TG). Our results show no robust correlation between the β2–relative reflectivity pair. Pearson's correlation coefficient, a test of linearity, ranges from −0.26 to −0.38. Spearman's correlation coefficient, which does not require a linear assumption, is also modest (∼−0.35). We conclude that β2 and relative basal reflectivity underneath TG do not infer similar basal conditions. Plain Language Summary: Ice sheet models use equations called sliding laws to simulate how fast or slow ice can flow over the bed of a glacier. One such sliding law is Weertman's sliding law, which is widely used by numerical ice sheet models. A parameter called β2 is used in Weertman's sliding law to match the observed velocity. Another parameter called basal reflectivity, derived from airborne ice penetrating radar data, is widely used to identify whether the bed underneath a glacier is frozen or thawed. Frozen or thawed conditions impact how fast a glacier can slide over its bed. Here, we try to find statistical correlations between β2 and basal reflectivity over Thwaites Glacier (TG), West Antarctica. Our results show that the correlation values are not robust, which suggests that β2 and basal reflectivity do not identify similar conditions at the bed underneath TG. Key Points: Correlation experiments are carried out between Weertman's sliding‐law parameter β2 and radar‐derived relative basal reflectivityThe correlations between β2 and relative basal reflectivity are low, suggesting that they do not identify similar conditions at the bedThe correlations do not improve with any value of the sliding exponent m between 3 and 20 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial discharge emerging from the base of Greenland's marine‐terminating glaciers drives upwelling of nutrient‐rich bottom waters to the euphotic zone, which can fuel nitrate‐limited phytoplankton growth. Here, we use buoyant plume theory to quantify this subglacial discharge‐driven nutrient supply on a pan‐Greenland scale. The modeled nitrate fluxes were concentrated in a few critical systems, with half of the total modeled nitrate flux anomaly occurring at just 14% of marine‐terminating glaciers. Increasing subglacial discharge fluxes results in elevated nitrate fluxes, with the largest flux occurring at Jakobshavn Isbræ in Disko Bay, where subglacial discharge is largest. Subglacial discharge and nitrate flux anomaly also account for significant temporal variability in summer satellite chlorophyll a (Chl) within 50 km of Greenland's coast, particularly in some regions in central west and northwest Greenland. Plain Language Summary: Greenland ice‐sheet runoff is often discharged into fjords at the base of marine‐terminating glaciers as subglacial discharge, which can drive buoyant upwelling of nutrient‐rich bottom waters and fuel phytoplankton growth in the upper ocean. We combine a buoyant plume model with updated estimates of glacier depth, runoff rates, and profiles of temperature, salinity, and nitrate to estimate nutrient upwelling on a pan‐Greenland scale. The modeled nutrient upwelling is concentrated in a few major glacier systems with the largest subglacial discharge fluxes, and increasing runoff drives substantially increased modeled nutrient fluxes. We find that modeled nutrient upwelling can explain temporal variability in coastal surface chlorophyll a in some areas, particularly in west Greenland, which hosts the island's most exported fish catches by volume and value. Key Points: We use buoyant plume theory to model subglacial discharge‐driven nitrate fluxes across Greenland's largest marine‐terminating glaciersThe largest positive nitrate flux anomalies are concentrated in a few major systems with the largest subglacial discharge fluxesRunoff and modeled nitrate upwelling can explain temporal variability in surface cholorophyll in some coastal areas in west Greenland [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Petermann Glacier is a major outlet glacier of northern Greenland that drains a marine‐based basin vulnerable to destabilization from enhanced oceanic and atmospheric forcings. Using satellite radar interferometry data from the Sentinel‐1a/b missions, we observe a seasonal glacier acceleration of 15% in the summer, from 1,250 to 1,500 m/yr near the grounding line, but the physical drivers of this seasonality have not been elucidated. Here, we use a subglacial hydrology model coupled one‐way to an ice sheet model to evaluate the role of subglacial hydrology as a physical mechanism explaining the seasonal acceleration. We find excellent agreement between the observed and predicted velocity in terms of timing and magnitude with the addition of an applied lower limit on effective pressure of 6% of ice overburden pressure. We conclude that seasonal changes in subglacial hydrology are sufficient to explain the observed seasonal speed up of Petermann Glacier. Plain Language Summary: Petermann Glacier is one of the largest glaciers in northern Greenland with a sea‐level rise potential of about half a meter. In recent years, extensive satellite data have become available which provide frequent and widespread observations over much of the Greenland ice sheet, including Petermann. Access to such records provides the opportunity to investigate changes in glacier dynamics taking place over much smaller time periods. We see that in the summer Petermann's speed increases by about 15% from 1,250 to 1,500 m/year near the grounding line. We are able to reproduce this observed pattern in speed by predicting how friction at the base of the glacier will change with the addition of summer surface melt to the bed, and using those changes in friction to calculate seasonal speedup of the ice. Key Points: Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland accelerates by 15% from 1,250 to 1,500 m/yr during the summer months near the grounding lineA subglacial hydrology model quantifies seasonal changes in effective pressure at the bed in response to meltwater runoff inputSimulated effective pressure drives velocity behavior that matches observations in magnitude and timing over three consecutive years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) is currently stable but recent observations have indicated that basal melt rates beneath the ice shelf are expected to increase. It is important to know which areas of the RIS are more sensitive to enhanced basal melting as well as other external forcings or internal material properties of the ice to understand how climate change will influence RIS mass balance. In this paper, we use automatic differentiation and the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model to quantify the sensitivity of the RIS to changes in basal friction, ice rigidity, surface mass balance, and basal melting. Using volume above flotation (VAF) as our quantity of interest, we find that the RIS is most sensitive to changes in basal friction and ice rigidity close to grounding lines and along shear margins of the Siple Coast Ice Streams and Transantarctic Mountains Outlet Glaciers. The RIS sensitivity to surface mass balance is uniform over grounded ice, while the sensitivity to basal melting is more spatially variable. Changes in basal melting close to the grounding lines of the Siple Coast Ice Streams and Transantarctic Mountains outlet glaciers have a larger impact on the final VAF compared to elsewhere. Additionally, the pinning points and ice shelf shear margins are highly sensitive to changes in basal melt. Our sensitivity maps allow areas of greatest future vulnerability to be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately modelling the contribution of Greenland and Antarctica to sea level rise requires solving partial differential equations at a high spatial resolution. In this paper, we discuss the scaling of the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet with horizontal grid resolutions varying between 10 and 0.25 km. The model setup used as benchmark problem comprises a variety of modules with different levels of complexity and computational demands. The core builds the so-called stress balance module, which uses the higher-order approximation (or Blatter–Pattyn) of the Stokes equations, including free surface and ice-front evolution as well as thermodynamics in form of an enthalpy balance, and a mesh of linear prismatic finite elements, to compute the ice flow. We develop a detailed user-oriented, yet low-overhead, performance instrumentation tailored to the requirements of Earth system models and run scaling tests up to 6144 Message Passing Interface (MPI) processes. The results show that the computation of the Greenland model scales overall well up to 3072 MPI processes but is eventually slowed down by matrix assembly, the output handling and lower-dimensional problems that employ lower numbers of unknowns per MPI process. We also discuss improvements of the scaling and identify further improvements needed for climate research. The instrumented version of ISSM thus not only identifies potential performance bottlenecks that were not present at lower core counts but also provides the capability to continually monitor the performance of ISSM code basis. This is of long-term significance as the overall performance of ISSM model depends on the subtle interplay between algorithms, their implementation, underlying libraries, compilers, runtime systems and hardware characteristics, all of which are in a constant state of flux. We believe that future large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems will continue to employ the MPI-based programming paradigm on the road to exascale. Our scaling study pertains to a particular modelling setup available within ISSM and does not address accelerator techniques such as the use of vector units or GPUs. However, with 6144 MPI processes, we identified issues that need to be addressed in order to improve the ability of the ISSM code base to take advantage of upcoming systems that will require scaling to even higher numbers of MPI processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of frontal ablation from marine-terminating glaciers (i.e., mass lost at the calving face) is critical for constraining glacier mass balance, improving projections of mass change, and identifying the processes that govern frontal mass loss. Here, we discuss the challenges involved in computing frontal ablation and the unique issues pertaining to both glaciers and ice sheets. Frontal ablation estimates require numerous datasets, including glacier terminus area change, thickness, surface velocity, density, and climatic mass balance. Observations and models of these variables have improved over the past decade, but significant gaps and regional discrepancies remain, and better quantification of temporal variability in frontal ablation is needed. Despite major advances in satellite-derived large-scale datasets, large uncertainties remain with respect to ice thickness, depth-averaged velocities, and the bulk density of glacier ice close to calving termini or grounding lines. We suggest ways in which we can move toward globally complete frontal ablation estimates, highlighting areas where we need improved datasets and increased collaboration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over geologic timescales can greatly improve our knowledge of the critical factors driving GrIS demise during climatically warm periods, which has clear relevance for better predicting GrIS behavior over the upcoming centuries. To assess the fidelity of these modeling efforts, however, observational constraints of past ice sheet change are needed. Across southwestern Greenland, geologic records detail Holocene ice retreat across both terrestrial-based and marine-terminating environments, providing an ideal opportunity to rigorously benchmark model simulations against geologic reconstructions of ice sheet change. Here, we present regional ice sheet modeling results using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) of Holocene ice sheet history across an extensive fjord region in southwestern Greenland covering the landscape around the Kangiata Nunaata Sermia (KNS) glacier and extending outward along the 200 km Nuup Kangerula (Godthåbsfjord). Our simulations, forced by reconstructions of Holocene climate and recently implemented calving laws, assess the sensitivity of ice retreat across the KNS region to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. Our simulations reveal that the geologically reconstructed ice retreat across the terrestrial landscape in the study area was likely driven by fluctuations in surface mass balance in response to Early Holocene warming – and was likely not influenced significantly by the response of adjacent outlet glaciers to calving and ocean-induced melting. The impact of ice calving within fjords, however, plays a significant role by enhancing ice discharge at the terminus, leading to interior thinning up to the ice divide that is consistent with reconstructed magnitudes of Early Holocene ice thinning. Our results, benchmarked against geologic constraints of past ice-margin change, suggest that while calving did not strongly influence Holocene ice-margin migration across terrestrial portions of the KNS forefield, it strongly impacted regional mass loss. While these results imply that the implementation and resolution of ice calving in paleo-ice-flow models is important towards making more robust estimations of past ice mass change, they also illustrate the importance these processes have on contemporary and future long-term ice mass change across similar fjord-dominated regions of the GrIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating ice shelves buttress inland ice and curtail grounded-ice discharge. Climate warming causes melting and ultimately breakup of ice shelves, which could escalate ocean-bound ice discharge and thereby sea-level rise. Should ice shelves collapse, it is unclear whether they could recover, even if we meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we use a numerical ice-sheet model to determine if Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland can recover from a future breakup. Our experiments suggest that post-breakup recovery of confined ice shelves like Petermann's is unlikely, unless iceberg calving is greatly reduced. Ice discharge from Petermann Glacier also remains up to 40% higher than today, even if the ocean cools below present-day temperatures. If this behaviour is not unique for Petermann, continued near-future ocean warming may push the ice shelves protecting Earth's polar ice sheets into a new retreated high-discharge state which may be exceedingly difficult to recover from. New experiments suggest that the Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland is unlikely to recover once a breakup occurs in the future. If this is not unique to this ice shelf, continued ocean warming may lead to high discharge from polar ice sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, one of the largest contributors to total ice discharge across the Greenland ice sheet, Helheim Glacier, has experienced large fluctuations in ice velocity. In this study, we simulate the dynamics of Helheim, from 2007 to 2020, using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to identify the drivers of these large changes in ice discharge. By quantifying the impact of individual external forcing and model parameters on Helheim's modeled velocity, we find that the position of the calving front alone explains the dynamic variability of the glacier, as it has a direct and large impact on Helheim's ice velocity. The seasonal to inter‐annual variability of Helheim Glacier is, however, relatively insensitive to the choice of friction law or ice rheology factor. This study shows that more research on calving dynamics and ice–ocean interactions is required to project the future of this sector of Greenland. Plain Language Summary: At least half of today's mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet is due to the acceleration and retreat of tidewater glaciers. Over the past decade, Helheim Glacier in southeast Greenland has experienced large fluctuations in its flow speed, varying sometimes by more than 2,000 m/yr within a single year. It is still unclear which physical processes are responsible for the fluctuations in ice speed of Helheim Glacier and how much they contribute individually. In this study, we use a novel numerical technique to simulate Helheim Glacier from 2007 to 2020 to investigate the role of some of the physical processes that have been proposed to potentially drive this variability in ice speed. By comparing the solutions of the numerical model to observations of ice speed, we find that the terminus position is the main control of the ice motion at Helheim Glacier. Key Points: Calving has been controlling Helheim's speed variability since 2007Averaging the calving rate over 60 days does not change the glacier behavior significantlyConstraining a calving law is critical to model the future of Helheim's mass balance [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retreat of marine outlet glaciers often initiates depletion of inland ice through dynamic adjustments of the upstream glacier. The local topography of a fjord may promote or inhibit such retreat, and therefore fjord geometry constitutes a critical control on ice sheet mass balance. To quantify the processes of ice–topography interactions and enhance the understanding of the dynamics involved, we analyze a multitude of topographic fjord settings and scenarios using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM). We systematically study glacier retreat through a variety of artificial fjord geometries and quantify the modeled dynamics directly in relation to topographic features. We find that retreat in an upstream-widening or upstream-deepening fjord does not necessarily promote retreat, as suggested by previous studies. Conversely, it may stabilize a glacier because converging ice flow towards a constriction enhances lateral and basal shear stress gradients. An upstream-narrowing or upstream-shoaling fjord, in turn, may promote retreat since fjord walls or bed provide little stability to the glacier where ice flow diverges. Furthermore, we identify distinct quantitative relationships directly linking grounding line discharge and retreat rate to fjord topography and transfer these results to a long-term study of the retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ. These findings offer new perspectives on ice–topography interactions and give guidance to an ad hoc assessment of future topographically induced ice loss based on knowledge of the upstream fjord geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical simulations of ice sheets rely on the momentum balance to determine how ice velocities change as the geometry of the system evolves. Ice is generally assumed to follow a Stokes flow with a nonlinear viscosity. Several approximations have been proposed in order to lower the computational cost of a full-Stokes stress balance. A popular option is the Blatter–Pattyn or higher-order model (HO), which consists of a three-dimensional set of equations that solves the horizontal velocities only. However, it still remains computationally expensive for long transient simulations. Here we present a depth-integrated formulation of the HO model, which can be solved on a two-dimensional mesh in the horizontal plane. We employ a specific polynomial function to describe the vertical variation in the velocity, which allows us to integrate the vertical dimension using a semi-analytic integration. We assess the performance of this MOno-Layer Higher-Order (MOLHO) model to compute ice velocities and simulate grounding line dynamics on standard benchmarks (ISMIP-HOM and MISMIP3D). We compare MOLHO results to the ones obtained with the original three-dimensional HO model. We also compare the time performance of both models in time-dependent runs. Our results show that the ice velocities and grounding line positions obtained with MOLHO are in very good agreement with the ones from HO. In terms of computing time, MOLHO requires less than 10 % of the computational time of a typical HO model, for the same simulations. These results suggest that the MOno-Layer Higher-Order formulation provides improved computational time performance and a comparable accuracy compared to the HO formulation, which opens the door to higher-order paleo simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers as well as other ice streams in West Antarctica have been changing dramatically over the past decades. Although changes in ocean conditions are likely the primary driver of these changes, it remains unclear where other processes could cause more mass loss. By employing Automatic Differentiation and two independent ice‐sheet models, we construct maps of the sensitivity of the volume above floatation to changes in ocean‐induced melt rates, ice rigidity, basal friction, and surface mass balance. We find that changes in basal melt close to the grounding lines and along shear margins have a larger impact on the glaciers' final volume. The glaciers are sensitive to changes in basal friction on regions close to the grounding lines, while changes in ice rigidity has a larger impact along the shear margins of Pine Island. The sensitivity to surface mass balance is uniform over grounded ice. Plain Language Summary: The Amundsen Sea Embayment is the region of Antarctica that is changing the fastest. Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers have been thinning and accelerating over the past three decades and it is not clear whether they are going to continue to do so over the coming years. Here, we use two models of ice‐sheet flow and employ a new tool that shows what physical process is the most critical, and where, if we are interested in the future contribution to sea‐level rise of this sector of Antarctica. We find that the basal friction close to the zone where the ice starts to float exerts a very strong control on the mass balance. We also find that the connection between grounded ice and pinning points under the ice shelf is key to keep the system stable. Increasing basal melting or weakening the ice in this sector would lead to significant acceleration and further mass loss. Key Points: Future ice discharge is sensitive to basal conditions within 60 km of the grounding zonePine Island Glacier's projected mass balance is most sensitive to the strength of its shear marginsThe integrity of Thwaites' ice shelf connecting to the Eastern Ice Rise is critical [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using three independent ice‐flow models and several satellite‐based datasets, we assess the importance of correctly capturing ice‐shelf breakup, shelf thinning, and reduction in basal traction from ungrounding in reproducing observed speed‐up and thinning of Thwaites Glacier between 1995 and 2015. We run several transient numerical simulations applying these three perturbations individually. Our results show that ocean‐induced ice‐shelf thinning generates most of the observed grounding line retreat, inland speed‐up, and mass loss, in agreement with previous work. We improve the agreement with observed inland speed‐up and thinning by prescribing changes in ice‐shelf geometry and a reduction in basal traction over areas that became ungrounded since 1995, suggesting that shelf breakups and thinning‐induced reduction in basal traction play a critical role on Thwaites's dynamics, as pointed out by previous studies. These findings suggest that modeling Thwaites's future requires reliable ocean‐induced melt estimates in models that respond accurately to downstream perturbations. Plain Language Summary: Recent observations have shown that Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has been accelerating and thinning over the past decades and its floating part is quickly breaking up. While these observations suggest that warmer ocean currents are the main factor responsible for these changes, it remains unclear which of the following processes are most important to the glacier's dynamics: (a) breakup of its floating section, (b) ice‐shelf thinning, or (c) changes in the grounded‐ice area. By employing three ice‐sheet models and several satellite‐based datasets, we find that thinning induced by ocean melting and the resulting reduction of grounded‐ice area explain most of the observed flow acceleration and mass loss of Thwaites, in agreement with other studies. We also find that the breakup of the floating section plays an important role on Thwaites's dynamics. These findings suggest that improved forecasts of Thwaites's future require reliable ocean‐induced melt estimates and improved model response to changes in ice‐shelf thickness and geometry. Key Points: The reduction in basal traction due to grounding line retreat plays a critical role on Thwaites's dynamics in agreement with previous studiesOcean‐induced melt leads to a sustained acceleration and grounding line retreat consistent with observations and earlier workImproved forecasts of Thwaites demand reliable melt estimates coupled to models that accurately reproduce the response to downstream changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Totten Glacier (TG), the primary ice discharger of East Antarctica, contains 3.85 m sea level rise equivalent (SLRe) ice mass and has displayed ocean‐driven dynamic change since at least the early 2000s. We project TG's evolution through 2100 in an asynchronously coupled ice‐ocean model, forced at the ocean boundaries with anomalies in CMIP6 projected temperature, salinity, and velocity. Consistent with previous studies, the Antarctic Slope Current continues to modulate warm water inflow toward TG in future simulations. Warm water (−0.5 – 1°C) accesses TG's sub‐ice shelf cavity through depressions along the eastern ice front, driving sustained retreat of TG's eastern grounding zone that cannot be captured in uncoupled models. In high emission scenarios, warm water overcomes topographic barriers and dislodges TG's southern grounding zone around 2070, increasing the rate of grounded ice loss 3.5‐fold (10–35 Gt/yr) and resulting in a total 4.20 mm SLRe loss by 2100. Plain Language Summary: Totten Glacier (TG), East Antarctica, has been losing ice mass and retreating as a result of warm ocean water melting the underside of this glacier. To simulate this glacier's future evolution in response to realistic ocean forcing, we combine an ice sheet model of TG with a newly developed East Antarctic ocean model configuration and run simulations through 2100. Consistent with previous modeling studies, we find that the strength of the Antarctic Slope Current controls the presence of warm water near TG in future simulations. Significant retreat is projected on TG's eastern and southern sectors. On the eastern side, warm ocean water flows directly along the transition of floating to grounded ice, causing sustained melt throughout the entire simulation in all experiments. In contrast, warm ocean water can only access and promote retreat of TG's southern sector in the strongest warming scenarios by 2070, significantly accelerating TG's rate of mass loss and resulting in a total sea level rise contribution of 4.20 mm by 2100. Key Points: Simulations of Totten Glacier (TG) over the 21st century are performed in a coupled ice‐ocean modelA 3.5‐fold increase in grounded ice loss follows retreat of TG's southern grounding zone, resulting in a 4.2 mm sea level rise contributionCoupled model results capture the spatial distribution of ocean‐driven basal melting and lead to retreat on the eastern flank [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet is considered to be particularly susceptible to ice mass loss arising from increased glacier discharge in the coming decades. However, the past extent and dynamics of outlet glaciers in this region, and hence their vulnerability to climate change, are poorly documented. In the summer of 2019, the Swedish icebreaker Oden entered the previously unchartered waters of Sherard Osborn Fjord, where Ryder Glacier drains approximately 2 % of Greenland's ice sheet into the Lincoln Sea. Here we reconstruct the Holocene dynamics of Ryder Glacier and its ice tongue by combining radiocarbon dating with sedimentary facies analyses along a 45 km transect of marine sediment cores collected between the modern ice tongue margin and the mouth of the fjord. The results illustrate that Ryder Glacier retreated from a grounded position at the fjord mouth during the Early Holocene (> 10.7±0.4 ka cal BP) and receded more than 120 km to the end of Sherard Osborn Fjord by the Middle Holocene (6.3±0.3 ka cal BP), likely becoming completely land-based. A re-advance of Ryder Glacier occurred in the Late Holocene, becoming marine-based around 3.9±0.4 ka cal BP. An ice tongue, similar in extent to its current position was established in the Late Holocene (between 3.6±0.4 and 2.9±0.4 ka cal BP) and extended to its maximum historical position near the fjord mouth around 0.9±0.3 ka cal BP. Laminated, clast-poor sediments were deposited during the entire retreat and regrowth phases, suggesting the persistence of an ice tongue that only collapsed when the glacier retreated behind a prominent topographic high at the landward end of the fjord. Sherard Osborn Fjord narrows inland, is constrained by steep-sided cliffs, contains a number of bathymetric pinning points that also shield the modern ice tongue and grounding zone from warm Atlantic waters, and has a shallowing inland sub-ice topography. These features are conducive to glacier stability and can explain the persistence of Ryder's ice tongue while the glacier remained marine-based. However, the physiography of the fjord did not halt the dramatic retreat of Ryder Glacier under the relatively mild changes in climate forcing during the Holocene. Presently, Ryder Glacier is grounded more than 40 km seaward of its inferred position during the Middle Holocene, highlighting the potential for substantial retreat in response to ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time-dependent simulations of ice sheets require two equations to be solved: the mass transport equation, derived from the conservation of mass, and the stress balance equation, derived from the conservation of momentum. The mass transport equation controls the advection of ice from the interior of the ice sheet towards its periphery, thereby changing its geometry. Because it is based on an advection equation, a stabilization scheme needs to be employed when solved using the finite-element method. Several stabilization schemes exist in the finite-element method framework, but their respective accuracy and robustness have not yet been systematically assessed for glaciological applications. Here, we compare classical schemes used in the context of the finite-element method: (i) artificial diffusion, (ii) streamline upwinding, (iii) streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin, (iv) discontinuous Galerkin, and (v) flux-corrected transport. We also look at the stress balance equation, which is responsible for computing the ice velocity that "advects" the ice downstream. To improve the velocity computation accuracy, the ice-sheet modeling community employs several sub-element parameterizations of physical processes at the grounding line, the point where the grounded ice starts to float onto the ocean. Here, we introduce a new sub-element parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives the ice-sheet flow. We analyze the response of each stabilization scheme by running transient simulations forced by ice-shelf basal melt. The simulations are based on an idealized ice-sheet geometry for which there is no influence of bedrock topography. We also perform transient simulations of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, where real bedrock and surface elevations are employed. In both idealized and real ice-sheet experiments, stabilization schemes based on artificial diffusion lead systematically to a bias towards more mass loss in comparison to the other schemes and therefore should be avoided or employed with a sufficiently high mesh resolution in the vicinity of the grounding line. We also run diagnostic simulations to assess the accuracy of the driving stress parameterization, which, in combination with an adequate parameterization for basal stress, provides improved numerical convergence in ice speed computations and more accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humboldt Gletscher is a 100‐km wide, slow‐moving glacier in north Greenland which holds a 19‐cm global sea level equivalent. Humboldt has been the fourth largest contributor to sea level rise since 1972 but the cause of its mass loss has not been elucidated. Multi‐beam echo sounding data collected in 2019 indicate a seabed 200 m deeper than previously known. Conductivity temperature depth data reveal the presence of warm water of Atlantic origin at 0°C at the glacier front and a warming of the ocean waters by 0.9 ± 0.1°C since 1962. Using an ocean model, we reconstruct grounded ice undercutting by the ocean, combine it with calculated retreat caused by ice thinning to floatation, and are able to fully explain the observed retreat. Two thirds of the retreat are caused by undercutting of grounded ice, which is a physical process not included in most ice sheet models. Plain Language Summary: Humboldt Gletscher is the widest glacier in Greenland, slow moving, and terminating in shallow waters in its southern half, but grounded 200 m deeper than previously known in its northern half, with a submarine trough extending more than 100 km inland. The glacier has been retreating at 0.6 km/year and contributing significantly to sea level rise. We attribute the retreat to undercutting of grounded ice by warmer ocean waters combined with a retreat caused by ice thinning to floatation sooner due to glacier speed up. The glacier, which hosts an ice volume equivalent to a 19‐cm global sea level, will remain a major contributor to sea level rise this Century. Key Points: The 100‐km wide Humboldt Gletscher holds a 19‐cm sea level rise equivalent, lost 161 billion tons of mass, and retreated 13 km since 1972Warm waters at 0°C flood a 350–400 m deep trough on its northern flank that remains below sea level more than 100 km inlandWe explain the glacier retreat as 70% from ocean‐induced undercutting and 30% from thinning‐induced retreat [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland's outlet glaciers have been a leading source of mass loss and accompanying sea‐level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over the last 25 years. The dynamic component of outlet glacier mass loss depends on both the ice flux through the terminus and the inland extent of glacier thinning, initiated at the ice‐ocean interface. Here, we find limits to the inland spread of thinning that initiates at glacier termini for 141 ocean‐terminating outlet glaciers around the GrIS. Inland diffusion of thinning is limited by steep reaches of bed topography that we call "knickpoints." We show that knickpoints exist beneath the majority of outlet glaciers but they are less steep in regions of gentle bed topography, giving glaciers in gentle bed topography the potential to contribute to ongoing and future mass loss from the GrIS by allowing the diffusion of thinning far into the ice sheet interior. Plain Language Summary: Fast‐flowing outlet glaciers around the edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet transport ice from the ice sheet interior to the ocean. In response to a warming climate, many of these glaciers have retreated, causing thinning at the edge of the ice sheet that spreads into the interior. Depending on the shape of each outlet glacier, thinning can either spread far into the interior or stall where the glacier flows over particularly steep bedrock beneath the glacier. By investigating the shapes of 141 outlet glaciers around Greenland, we find that steep bedrock features, which we call "knickpoints," can effectively stall the inland spread of thinning in regions where the bedrock beneath the ice sheet is mountainous. On the other hand, in regions of more gentle topography, these knickpoints are either not present or are less steep and cannot stall thinning from spreading far into the ice sheet interior. This means that numerous small glaciers flowing over the gentle topography of Northwest Greenland may allow thinning to spread to the center of the ice sheet. Because of this, these smaller glaciers may play as big of a role in future sea‐level rise as the more well‐known and well‐studied larger glaciers. Key Points: Greenland glaciers with high potential to contribute to mass loss identified using novel metricThe majority of thinning limits are set by a knickpoint, a steep drop in bed topographyGlaciers that transmit thinning far inland are preferentially in regions with gentle bed topography [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time dependent simulations of ice sheets require two equations to be solved: the mass transport equation, derived from the conservation of mass, and the stress balance equation, derived from the conservation of momentum. The mass transport equation controls the advection of ice from the interior of the ice sheet towards its periphery, thereby changing its geometry. Because it is based on a hyperbolic partial differential equation, a stabilization scheme needs to be employed when solved using the finite element method. Several stabilization schemes exist in the finite element method framework, but their respective accuracy and robustness have not yet been systematically assessed for glaciological applications. Here, we compare classical schemes used in the context of the finite element method: (i) Artificial Diffusion, (ii) Streamline Upwinding, (iii) Streamline Upwind Petrov-Galerkin, (iv) Discontinuous Galerkin, and (v) Flux Corrected Transport. We also look at the stress balance equation, which is responsible for computing the ice velocity that `advects' the ice dowstream. To improve the velocity computation accuracy, the ice sheet modeling community employs several sub-element parameterizations of physical processes at the grounding line, the point where the grounded ice starts to float onto the ocean. Here, we introduce a new sub- element parameterization for the driving stress, the force that drives the ice sheet flow. We analyze the response of each stabilization scheme by running transient simulations forced by ice shelf basal melt. The simulations are based on an idealized ice sheet geometry for which there is no influence of bedrock topography. We also perform transient simulations of the Amundsen Sea Sector, West Antarctica, where real bedrock and surface elevations are employed. In both idealized and real ice sheet experiments, stabilization schemes based on artificial diffusion lead systematically to a bias towards more mass loss in comparison to the other schemes, and therefore, should be avoided or employed with a sufficiently high mesh resolution in the vicinity of the grounding line. We also run diagnostic simulations to assess the accuracy of the driving stress parameterization, which in combination with an adequate parameterization for basal stress, provides improved numerical convergence in ice speed computations and more accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future impacts of sea-level rise at the local level is important for mitigating its effects. In particular, quantifying the range of sea-level rise outcomes in a probabilistic way enables coastal planners to better adapt strategies, depending on cost, timing and risk tolerance. For a time horizon of 100 years, frameworks have been developed that provide such projections by relying on sea-level fingerprints where contributions from different processes are sampled at each individual time step and summed up to create probability distributions of sea-level rise for each desired location. While advantageous, this method does not readily allow for including new physics developed in forward models of each component. For example, couplings and feedbacks between ice sheets, ocean circulation and solid-Earth uplift cannot easily be represented in such frameworks. Indeed, the main impediment to inclusion of more forward model physics in probabilistic sea-level frameworks is the availability of dynamically computed sea-level fingerprints that can be directly linked to local mass changes. Here, we demonstrate such an approach within the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), where we develop a probabilistic framework that can readily be coupled to forward process models such as those for ice sheets, glacial isostatic adjustment, hydrology and ocean circulation, among others. Through large-scale uncertainty quantification, we demonstrate how this approach enables inclusion of incremental improvements in all forward models and provides fidelity to time-correlated processes. The projection system may readily process input and output quantities that are geodetically consistent with space and terrestrial measurement systems. The approach can also account for numerous improvements in our understanding of sea-level processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a topographic digital elevation model (DEM) for Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), East Antarctica. The DEM covers an area of ∼900000 km2 and was built from radio-echo sounding data collected during four campaigns since 2015. Previously, to generate the Bedmap2 topographic product, PEL's bed was characterized from low-resolution satellite gravity data across an otherwise large (>200 km wide) data-free zone. We use the mass conservation (MC) method to produce an ice thickness grid across faster flowing (>30 myr-1) regions of the ice sheet and streamline diffusion in slower flowing areas. The resulting ice thickness model is integrated with an ice surface model to build the bed DEM. Together with BedMachine Antarctica and Bedmap2, this new bed DEM completes the first-order measurement of subglacial continental Antarctica – an international mission that began around 70 years ago. The ice thickness data and bed DEMs of PEL (resolved horizontally at 500 m relative to ice surface elevations obtained from the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica – REMA) are accessible from 10.5281/zenodo.4023343 (Cui et al., 2020a) and 10.5281/zenodo.4023393 (Cui et al., 2020b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal state of an ice sheet is an important control on its past and future evolution. Some parts of the ice sheet may be polythermal, leading to discontinuous properties at the cold–temperate transition surface (CTS). These discontinuities require a careful treatment in ice sheet models (ISMs). Additionally, the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling poses a problem for stabilization approaches in advection-dominated problems. Here, we present extended enthalpy formulations within the finite-element Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System model (ISSM) that show a better performance than earlier implementations. In a first polythermal-slab experiment, we found that the treatment of the discontinuous conductivities at the CTS with a geometric mean produces more accurate results compared to the arithmetic or harmonic mean. This improvement is particularly efficient when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second ice dome experiment, we find that the numerical solution is sensitive to the choice of stabilization parameters in the well-established streamline upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method. As standard literature values for the SUPG stabilization parameter do not account for the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling, we propose a novel anisotropic SUPG (ASUPG) formulation. This formulation circumvents the problem of high aspect ratio by treating the horizontal and vertical directions separately in the stabilization coefficients. The ASUPG method provides accurate results for the thermodynamic equation on geometries with very small aspect ratios like ice sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+. MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include fast sliding marine ice streams and floating ice shelves and in particular a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing, where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized experiments first tests that models are able to maintain a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat. The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed, with other distinctions – notably the difference between the simpler and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods – taking a secondary role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) has the potential to raise global sea levels by ∼52 m. Here, we model the evolution of select EAIS catchments to 2100 using three basal melt rate parameterizations and force our model with surface mass balance and ocean thermal anomalies from 10 global climate models. While the domain loses mass under low‐emission scenarios, it gains ∼10‐mm sea‐level rise equivalent ice volume (SLRe) under high‐emission scenarios. The primary region of thinning is within 50 km upstream of Totten Glacier's grounding line. Totten's glacial discharge is modulated by the migration of its grounding line, which is sensitive to brief intrusions of ocean water at temperatures higher than present. Once the grounding line is dislodged, Totten's ice velocity increases by up to 70% of present‐day values, resulting in ∼6‐mm SLRe loss from this sector. Plain Language Summary: Predicting how much the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) will contribute to global sea‐level rise is critical to the welfare of the global community. In our study, we model a large sector of EAIS to 2100 using a variety of different ocean melting representations and include both ocean temperature and snowfall predictions taken from two suites of climate model output. We find that by 2100, increases in snowfall outweigh increases in ice loss, and this sector of the EAIS will be responsible for a 10‐mm decrease in global sea level under the highest climate warming scenarios. We find that Totten Glacier is most at risk to enhanced ocean warming, with the southernmost portion of this glacier acting as an important control on whether it loses ice or remains at its present‐day configuration. If this portion of Totten is melted, this glacier may lose enough ice mass to raise global sea levels by 6mm by 2100. Key Points: Atmospheric changes will govern East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance to 2100EAIS is projected to lose mass under RCP2.6 but gain mass under high‐emission scenarios by 2100Mass loss from Totten Glacier is dependent on the retention of a vulnerable 10‐km ice plain [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal state of an ice sheet is an important control on its past and future evolution. Some parts of the ice sheets may be polythermal, leading to discontinuous properties at the cold–temperate transition surface (CTS). These discontinuities require a careful treatment in ice sheet models (ISMs). Additionally, the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling poses a problem for stabilization approaches in advection dominated problems. Here, we present extended enthalpy formulations within the finite-element Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) that show a better performance to earlier implementations. In a first polythermal-slab experiment, we found that the treatment of the discontinuous conductivities at the CTS with a geometric mean produce more accurate results compared to the arithmetic or harmonic mean. This improvement is particularly efficient when applied to coarse vertical resolutions. In a second ice dome experiment, we find that the numerical solution is sensitive to the choice of stabilization parameters in the well-established Streamline Upwind Petrov–Galerkin (SUPG) method. As standard literature values for the SUPG stabilization parameter are not accounting for the highly anisotropic geometry of the 3D elements in ice sheet modelling, we propose a novel Anisotropic SUPG (ASUPG) formulation. This formulation circumvents the problem of high aspect-ratio by treating the horizontal and vertical directions separately in the stabilization coefficients. The ASUPG method provides accurate results for the thermodynamic equation on geometries with very small aspect ratios like ice sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, and ice loss will likely continue over the coming decades and centuries. Some regions of the ice sheet may reach a tipping point, potentially leading to rates of sea level rise at least an order of magnitude larger than those observed now, owing to strong positive feedbacks in the ice-climate system. How fast and how much Antarctica will contribute to sea level remains uncertain, but multimeter sea level rise is likely for a mean global temperature increase of around 2°C above preindustrial levels on multicentennial time scales, or sooner for unmitigated scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the "retreat" and "submarine melt" implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘ C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southeast Greenland has been a major participant in the ice sheet mass loss over the last several decades. Interpreting the evolution of glacier fronts requires information about their depth below sea level and ocean thermal forcing, which are incompletely known in the region. Here, we combine airborne gravity and multibeam echo sounding data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission with ocean probe and fishing boat depth data to reconstruct the bathymetry extending from the glacier margins to the edges of the continental shelf. We perform a three‐dimensional inversion of the gravity data over water and merge the solution with a mass conservation reconstruction of bed topography over land. In contrast with other parts of Greenland, we find few deep troughs connecting the glaciers to the sources of warm Atlantic Water, amidst a relatively uniform, shallow (350 m) continental shelf. The deep channels include the Kangerlugssuaq, Sermilik, Gyldenløve, and Tingmiarmiut Troughs. Key Points: A multisensor approach resolves the bathymetry on the continental shelf and glacial fjords of southeast GreenlandFew deep or complex networks of troughs connect the glaciers to the sources of warm Atlantic Water; that is, access to ocean heat is limitedThe new bathymetry helps interpret the past and recent evolution of southeast Greenland glaciers and contribution to sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basal melting at the bottom of Antarctic ice shelves is a major control on glacier dynamics, as it modulates the amount of buttressing that floating ice shelves exert onto the ice streams feeding them. Three-dimensional ocean circulation numerical models provide reliable estimates of basal melt rates but remain too computationally expensive for century-scale projections. Ice sheet modelers therefore routinely rely on simplified parameterizations based on either ice shelf depth or more sophisticated box models. However, existing parameterizations do not accurately resolve the complex spatial patterns of sub-shelf melt rates that have been observed over Antarctica's ice shelves, especially in the vicinity of the grounding line, where basal melting is one of the primary drivers of grounding line migration. In this study, we couple the Potsdam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel PICO, to a buoyant plume melt rate parameterization to create PICOP, a novel basal melt rate parameterization that is easy to implement in transient ice sheet numerical models and produces a melt rate field that is in excellent agreement with the spatial distribution and magnitude of observations for several ocean basins. We test PICOP on the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, Totten, and Moscow University ice shelves in East Antarctica and the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and compare the results to PICO. We find that PICOP is able to reproduce inferred high melt rates beneath Pine Island, Thwaites, and Totten glaciers (on the order of 100 m yr -1) and removes the "banding" pattern observed in melt rates produced by PICO over the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. PICOP resolves many of the issues contemporary basal melt rate parameterizations face and is therefore a valuable tool for those looking to make future projections of Antarctic glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate projections of the evolution of ice sheets in a changing climate require a fine mesh/grid resolution in ice sheet models to correctly capture fundamental physical processes, such as the evolution of the grounding line, the region where grounded ice starts to float. The evolution of the grounding line indeed plays a major role in ice sheet dynamics, as it is a fundamental control on marine ice sheet stability. Numerical modeling of a grounding line requires significant computational resources since the accuracy of its position depends on grid or mesh resolution. A technique that improves accuracy with reduced computational cost is the adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) approach. We present here the implementation of the AMR technique in the finite element Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to simulate grounding line dynamics under two different benchmarks: MISMIP3d and MISMIP +. We test different refinement criteria: (a) distance around the grounding line, (b) a posteriori error estimator, the Zienkiewicz–Zhu (ZZ) error estimator, and (c) different combinations of (a) and (b). In both benchmarks, the ZZ error estimator presents high values around the grounding line. In the MISMIP + setup, this estimator also presents high values in the grounded part of the ice sheet, following the complex shape of the bedrock geometry. The ZZ estimator helps guide the refinement procedure such that AMR performance is improved. Our results show that computational time with AMR depends on the required accuracy, but in all cases, it is significantly shorter than for uniformly refined meshes. We conclude that AMR without an associated error estimator should be avoided, especially for real glaciers that have a complex bed geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty that arises from large uncertainty in the external forcing that future warming may exert onto the ice sheet. While ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean, the approach is neglecting a number of processes such as surface mass balance related contributions and mechanisms. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations where an instability is dominating the ice loss. Results obtained here are thus relevant in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014), but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP-5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP-5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming) and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 is 9.6 mm with a likely range between 5.2 mm and 20.3 mm compared to the observed sea-level contribution from Antarctica of 7.4 mm with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018). For the so-called business-as-usual warming path, RCP-8.5, we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea-level rise within the 21st century of 17 cm with a likely range (66-percentile around the mean) between 9 cm and 36 cm and a very likely range (90-percentile around the mean) between 6 cm and 59 cm. For the RCP-2.6 warming path which will keep the global mean temperature below two degrees of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea-level contribution. The likely range for the RCP-2.6 scenario is between 7 cm and 25 cm and the very likely range is between 5 cm and 39 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario, separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade with a likely range between 2 cm/dec and 8 cm/dec and a very likely range between 1 cm/dec and 13 cm/dec. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is critical for improving future sea level rise (SLR) projections. Numerical ice sheet models are invaluable tools for bounding Antarctic vulnerability; yet, few continental-scale projections of century-scale AIS SLR contribution exist, and those that do vary by up to an order of magnitude. This is partly because model projections of future sea level are inherently uncertain and depend largely on the model's boundary conditions and climate forcing, which themselves are unknown due to the uncertainty in the projections of future anthropogenic emissions and subsequent climate response. Here, we aim to improve the understanding of how uncertainties in model forcing and boundary conditions affect ice sheet model simulations. With use of sampling techniques embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) framework, we assess how uncertainties in snow accumulation, ocean-induced melting, ice viscosity, basal friction, bedrock elevation, and the presence of ice shelves impact continental-scale 100-year model simulations of AIS future sea level contribution. Overall, we find that AIS sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by variations in bedrock topography. In addition, we find that over 1.2 m of AIS global mean sea level contribution over the next century is achievable, but not likely, as it is tenable only in response to unrealistically large melt rates and continental ice shelf collapse. Regionally, we find that under our most extreme 100-year warming experiment generalized for the entire ice sheet, the Amundsen Sea sector is the most significant source of model uncertainty (1032 mm 6σ spread) and the region with the largest potential for future sea level contribution (297 mm). In contrast, under a more plausible forcing informed regionally by literature and model sensitivity studies, the Ronne basin has a greater potential for local increases in ice shelf basal melt rates. As a result, under this more likely realization, where warm waters reach the continental shelf under the Ronne ice shelf, it is the Ronne basin, particularly the Evans and Rutford ice streams, that are the greatest contributors to potential SLR (161 mm) and to simulation uncertainty (420 mm 6σ spread). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate projections of the evolution of ice sheets in a changing climate require a fine mesh/grid resolution to correctly capture fundamental physical processes, such as the evolution of the grounding line, the region where grounded ice starts to float. The evolution of the grounding line indeed plays a major role in ice sheet dynamics, as it is a fundamental control on marine ice sheet stability. Numerical modeling of grounding line requires significant computational resources since the accuracy of its position depends on grid or mesh resolution. A technique that improves accuracy with reduced computational cost is the adaptive mesh refinement approach, AMR. We present here the implementation of the AMR technique in the finite element Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to simulate grounding line dynamics under two different benchmarks, MISMIP3d and MISMIP+. We test different refinement criteria: (a) distance around grounding line, (b) a posteriori error estimator, the Zienkiewicz-Zhu (ZZ) error estimator, and (c) different combinations of (a) and (b). We find that for MISMIP3d setup, refining 5km around the grounding line, both on grounded and floating ice, is sufficient to produce AMR results similar to the ones obtained with uniformly refined meshes. However, for the MISMIP+ setup, we note that there is a minimum distance of 30km around the grounding line required to produce accurate results. We find this AMR mesh-dependency is linked to the complex bedrock topography of MISMIP+. In both benchmarks, the ZZ error estimator presents high values around the grounding line. Particularly for MISMIP+ setup, the estimator also presents high values in the grounded part of the ice sheet, following the complex shape of the bedrock geometry. This estimator helps guide the refinement procedure such that AMR performance is improved. Our results show that computational time with AMR depends on the required accuracy, but in all cases, it is significantly shorter than for uniformly refined meshes. We conclude that AMR without an associated error estimator should be avoided, especially for real glaciers that have a complex bed geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a lot of attention has been given to the numerical implementation of grounding lines and basal friction in the grounding zone, little has been done about the impact of the numerical treatment of ocean-induced basal melting in this region. Several strategies are currently being employed in the ice sheet modeling community, and the resulting grounding line dynamics may differ strongly, which ultimately adds significant uncertainty to the projected contribution of marine ice sheets to sea level rise.We investigate here several implementations of basal melt parameterization on partially floating elements in a finite-element framework, based on the Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) setup: (1) melt applied only to entirely floating elements, (2) melt applied over all elements that are crossed by the grounding line, and (3) melt integrated partially over the floating portion of a finite element using two different sub-element integration methods. All methods converge towards the same state when the mesh resolution is fine enough. However, (2) and (3) will systematically overestimate the rate of grounding line retreat in coarser resolutions, while (1) converges faster to the solution in most cases. The differences between sub-element parameterizations are exacerbated for experiments with high melting rates in the vicinity of the grounding line and for aWeertman sliding law. As most real-world simulations use horizontal mesh resolutions of several hundreds of meters at best, and high melt rates are generally present close to the grounding lines, we recommend not using (3) to avoid overestimating the rate of grounding line retreat and to carefully assess the impact of mesh resolution and sub-element melt parameterizations on all simulation results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica and Greenland hold enough ice to raise sea level by more than 65m if both ice sheets were to melt completely. Predicting future ice sheet mass balance depends on our ability to model these ice sheets, which is limited by our current understanding of several key physical processes, such as iceberg calving. Large-scale ice flow models either ignore this process or represent it crudely. To model fractured zones, an important component of many calving models, continuum damage mechanics as well as linear fracture mechanics are commonly used. However, these methods have a large number of uncertainties when applied across the entire Antarctic continent because the models were typically tuned to match processes seen on particular ice shelves. Here we present an alternative, statistics-based method to model the most probable zones of the location of fractures and demonstrate our approach on all main ice shelf regions in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula. We can predict the location of observed fractures with an average success rate of 84% for grounded ice and 61% for floating ice and a mean overestimation error rate of 26% and 20 %, respectively. We found that Antarctic ice shelves can be classified into groups based on the factors that control fracture location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine-terminating glaciers and ice streams are important controls of ice sheet mass balance. However, understanding of their long-term response to external forcing is limited by relatively short observational records of present-day glaciers and sparse geologic evidence for paleo-glaciers. Here we use a high-resolution ice sheet model with an accurate representation of grounding line dynamics to study the deglaciation of the marine-based south-western Norwegian sector of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and its sensitivity to ocean and atmosphere forcing. We find that the regional response to a uniform climate change is highly dependent on the local bedrock topography, consistent with ice sheet reconstructions. Our simulations suggest that ocean warming is able to trigger initial retreat in several fjords, but is not sufficient to explain retreat everywhere. Widespread retreat requires additional ice thinning driven by surface melt. Once retreat is triggered, the underlying bedrock topography and fjord width control the rate and extent of retreat, while multi-millennial changes over the course of deglaciation are modulated by surface melt. We suggest that fjord geometry, ice-ocean interactions and grounding line dynamics are vital controls of decadal-to centennial scale ice sheet mass loss. However, we postulate that atmospheric changes are the most important drivers of widespread ice sheet demise, and will likely trump oceanic influence on future ice sheet mass loss and resulting sea level rise over centennial and longer time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Wordie Ice Shelf-Fleming Glacier system in the southern Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a longterm retreat and disintegration of its ice shelf in the past 50 years. Increases in the glacier velocity and dynamic thinning have been observed over the past two decades, especially after 2008 when only a small ice shelf remained at the Fleming Glacier front. It is important to know whether the substantial further speed-up and greater surface drawdown of the glacier since 2008 is a direct response to ocean forcing, or driven by feedbacks within the grounded marinebased glacier system, or both. Recent observational studies have suggested the 2008-2015 velocity change was due to the ungrounding of the Fleming Glacier front. To explore the mechanisms underlying the recent changes, we use a full- Stokes ice sheet model to simulate the basal shear stress distribution of the Fleming system in 2008 and 2015. This study is part of the first high resolution modelling campaign of this system. Comparison of inversions for basal shear stresses for 2008 and 2015 suggests the migration of the grounding line 9 km upstream by 2015 from the 2008 ice front/grounding line positions, which virtually coincided with the 1996 grounding line position. This migration is consistent with the change in floating area deduced from the calculated height above buoyancy in 2015. The retrograde submarine bed underneath the lowest part of the Fleming Glacier may have promoted retreat of the grounding line. Grounding line retreat may also be enhanced by a feedback mechanism upstream of the grounding line by which increased basal lubrication due to increasing frictional heating enhances sliding and thinning. Improved knowledge of bed topography near the grounding line and further transient simulations with oceanic forcing are required to accurately predict the future movement of the Fleming Glacier system grounding line and better understand its ice dynamics and future contribution to sea level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]