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An operational synoptic-scale sea ice forecasting system for the Southern Ocean, namely the Southern Ocean Ice Prediction System (SOIPS), has been developed to support ship navigation in the Antarctic sea ice zone. Practical application of the SOIPS forecasts had been implemented for the 38th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition for the first time. The SOIPS is configured on an Antarctic regional sea ice–ocean–ice shelf coupled model and an ensemble-based localized error subspace transform Kalman filter data assimilation model. Daily near-real-time satellite sea ice concentration observations are assimilated into the SOIPS to update sea ice concentration and thickness in the 12 ensemble members of the model state. By evaluating the SOIPS performance in forecasting sea ice metrics in a complete melt–freeze cycle from 1 October 2021 to 30 September 2022, this study shows that the SOIPS can provide reliable Antarctic sea ice forecasts. In comparison with non-assimilated EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) data, annual mean root mean square errors in the sea ice concentration forecasts at a lead time of up to 168 h are lower than 0.19, and the integrated ice edge errors in the sea ice forecasts in most freezing months at lead times of 24 and 72 h maintain around 0.5×106 km 2 and below 1.0×106 km 2 , respectively. With respect to the scarce Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) observations, the mean absolute errors in the sea ice thickness forecasts at a lead time of 24 h are lower than 0.3 m, which is in the range of the ICESat-2 uncertainties. Specifically, the SOIPS has the ability to forecast sea ice drift, in both magnitude and direction. The derived sea ice convergence rate forecasts have great potential for supporting ship navigation on a fine local scale. The comparison between the persistence forecasts and the SOIPS forecasts with and without data assimilation further shows that both model physics and the data assimilation scheme play important roles in producing reliable sea ice forecasts in the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The sea ice cover has experienced substantial changes in Antarctica in the past decades, yet its responses to the long-term trend of the local atmosphere are still not clear. With the aid of an Antarctic coupled sea ice-ocean-ice shelf model, the sea ice seasonality in response to the long-term trend of the local atmospheric forcing has been quantified based on a sea ice budget analysis. Significantly spatial variabilities have been found in the Antarctic sea ice in response to the long-term trend of the local atmospheric forcing. The sea ice area and volume decrease in the Weddell Sea and increase in the Ross Sea throughout the year. In the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas sector, the sea ice area decreases from December to June and increases from July to November, while the sea ice volume decreases throughout the year. In the Indian-Western Pacific Oceans sector, the sea ice area decreases from January to May and increases from June to December, while the sea ice volume increases throughout the year. The long-term trend of the local atmospheric forcing modulates the sea ice loss in the melting period mainly through modifying the ice-ocean heat flux over the ice base, while it governs the sea ice growth in the freezing period by the combined effects of the ice-ocean heat flux and the atmosphere-ocean heat flux. Although the trend of the surface wind can also lead to distinct variations by the local sea ice convergence/divergence, the integrated contributions over the basin scale are relatively small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warm deep water intrusion over the Antarctic continental shelves threatens the Antarctic ice sheet stability by enhancing the basal melting of ice shelves. In East Antarctica, the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC), along with the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF), acts as a potential vorticity barrier to prevent the warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) from ventilating the cold and fresh shelf. However, mCDW onshore transport is still observed within certain shelf regions, such as submarine troughs running perpendicular to the continental shelf. This study focuses on the dynamic mechanisms governing mCDW intrusion within a submarine trough over the fresh shelf regions, East Antarctica. Based on an idealized eddy-resolving coupled ocean–ice shelf model, two high-resolution process-oriented numerical experiments are conducted to reveal the mechanisms responsible for the mCDW onshore transport. Three dynamic mechanisms governing cross-slope mCDW intrusion are identified: 1) the bottom pressure torque, 2) the topography beta spiral, and 3) the topography Rossby waves. These three mechanisms simultaneously govern the mCDW intrusion together. The bottom pressure torque plays a leading role in driving the time-mean onshore flow whose vertical structure is determined by the topography beta spiral, while the topography Rossby waves contribute to the high-frequency oscillations in the onshore volume and heat transport. The simulated spatial distribution and seasonality of mCDW intrusion qualitatively coincide with the observed mCDW intrusion over fresh shelf regions, East Antarctica. Both the topography beta spiral and the ASC play an important role in governing the seasonality of mCDW intrusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent outflow of supercooled ice-shelf water (ISW) from beneath McMurdo Ice Shelf creates a rapidly growing sub-ice platelet layer (SIPL) with a unique crystallographic structure under the sea ice in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. A vertically modified frazil-ice-laden ISW plume model that encapsulates the combined non-linear effects of the vertical distributions of supercooling and frazil concentration on frazil-ice growth is applied to McMurdo Sound and is shown to reproduce the observed ISW supercooling and SIPL distributions. Using this model, the dependence of the SIPL thickening rate and depth-averaged frazil-ice concentration on ISW supercooling in McMurdo Sound is investigated and found to be predominantly controlled by the vertical distribution of frazil concentration. The complex dependence on frazil concentration highlights the need to improve frazil-ice observations within the sea-ice–ocean boundary layer in McMurdo Sound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ice shelf water (ISW) plume is a prevalent phenomenon at the base of an ice shelf or sea ice adjacent to the ice shelf front. Such plumes may become supercooled and deposit marine ice when they rise. In the existing frazil ice-laden ISW plume models, it is generally assumed that supercooling and frazil ice growth can be adequately treated by using depth-averaged freezing temperature and vertically uniform frazil ice concentration within a plume. In reality, however, the temperature deficit and frazil ice concentration both increase toward the top of the plume. Hence, frazil crystals typically experience a greater deficit than that suggested by the plume's temperature subtracted from its depth-averaged freezing point. In this study, the authors considered the combined nonlinear effects of vertical structures of frazil ice concentration and thermal forcing within an ISW plume by introducing equilibrium vertical profiles of frazil ice concentration into a horizontal two-dimensional depth-integrated ISW plume model. A series of idealized numerical experiments and an observation-based simulation beneath the western side of Ronne Ice Shelf have been conducted by using the vertically modified and original depth-integrated ISW plume models. It was found that the supercooled area, supercooling level, and suspended frazil ice and marine ice productivities are all substantially underestimated by the original models. Moreover, the differences are sensitive to the selected frazil ice size configuration. These results suggest that the vertical modification introduced in this study can significantly improve simulated marine ice distribution and its corresponding production, in comparison with those estimated by previous depth-integrated models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic melting beneath ice shelves is the main driver of the current mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet. The resultant meltwater plumes influence the basal melting of ice shelves, and contribute to the development of the unique two-layer stratified ice shelf–ocean boundary currents underlain by warmer, saltier, and stationary source waters. However, knowledge of the dynamics and thermodynamics within these meltwater plumes, controlling the heat available for melting ice, remains outstanding. Here we investigate that important issue by developing a 2.5-dimensional nonhydrostatic vertical slice model with 1.5 m vertical resolution, and conduct the reference run based on a representative Ice Shelf Water (ISW)-High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) boundary current beneath the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica. Based on that we identify two dominating vertical thermal processes regulating the local temperature: the turbulent diffusion and the shear instabilities-induced convection (i.e., vertical advection), and carry out a quantitative thermal budget analysis in the framework of plume model, including deriving an analytical expression for the entrainment-induced heat flux. Moreover, after evaluating the entrainment parametrizations, it is suggested that the common assumption of neglecting the velocity at the lower boundary of meltwater plume potentially leads to a considerable deviation from the real entrainment. The sensitivity of the simulated results to model configuration and model resolution are also investigated. The findings in this study imply that we need to improve the model resolution of current ocean cavity models to capture the interfacial processes between lighter–denser waters. • A vertical 2.5D model of the ice shelf–ocean boundary current is developed. • Thermodynamics of the ice shelf–ocean boundary current is extensively analyzed. • Sufficiently resolving the plume-ambient interface is highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contrast with the severe thinning of ice shelves along the coast of West Antarctica, large ice shelves (specifically, the Filchner–Ronne and Amery Ice Shelves) with deep grounding lines gained mass during the period 1994–2012. This positive mass budget is potentially associated with the marine ice production, which originates from the supercooled Ice Shelf Water plume carrying suspended frazil ice along the ice shelf base. In addition, the outflow of this supercooled plume from beneath the ice shelf arguably exerts a significant impact on the properties of Antarctic Bottom Water, as well as its production. However, knowledge of this buoyant and supercooled shear flow is still limited, let alone its structure that is generally assumed to be vertically uniform. In this study we extended the vertical one-dimensional model of ice shelf–ocean boundary current from Jenkins (2016) by incorporating a frazil ice module and a fairly sophisticated turbulence closure (i.e., k - ε model) with the effects of density stratification. On the basis of this extended model, the study reproduced the measured thermohaline properties of a perennially-prominent supercooled ice shelf–ocean​ boundary current underneath the Amery Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, and conducted extensive sensitivity runs to a wide range of factors, including advection of scalar quantities, far-field geostrophic currents, basal slope, and the distribution of frazil ice crystal size. Based on the simulation results, the following conclusions can be drawn: Firstly, it can be difficult to reasonably reproduce the vertical structure of the ice shelf–ocean boundary current using a constant eddy viscosity/diffusivity near the ice shelf base. Secondly, although there are no direct observations of the size of frazil ice crystals beneath the ice shelves, the size of the finest ice crystals that play an important role in controlling the ice shelf–ocean boundary current is strongly suggested. Lastly, but most importantly, the ice shelf–ocean boundary layer response to the vertical gradient of frazil ice concentration will significantly reduce the level of turbulence. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of the strong interaction between frazil ice formation and the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of ice shelf–ocean boundary layer. This interaction must not only be included, but also be resolved at high resolutions in three-dimensional coupled ice shelf–ocean models applied to cold ice cavities, which will have a potential impact on the overall ice shelf mass balance and the Antarctic Bottom Water production. • A vertical 1D model of ice shelf-ocean boundary current with frazil ice is developed. • Sensitivity of frazil-laden ice shelf–ocean boundary current is extensively examined. • Interactions between frazil ice and ice shelf–ocean boundary current are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]