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Because Antarctic surface melt is mostly driven by local processes, its simulation necessitates high‐resolution regional climate models (RCMs). However, the current horizontal resolution of RCMs (≈25–30 km) is inadequate for capturing small‐scale melt processes. To address this limitation, we present SUPREME (SUPer‐REsolution‐based Melt Estimation over Antarctica), a deep learning method to downscale surface melt to 5.5 km resolution using a physically‐informed super‐resolution model. The physical information integrated into the model originates from observations tied to surface melt, specifically remote sensing‐derived albedo and elevation. These remote sensing data, in addition to a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) run at 27 km resolution, account for the diverse drivers of surface melt across Antarctica, facilitating effective generalization beyond the training region of the Antarctic Peninsula. A comparison of SUPREME with a dynamically downscaled RACMO run at 5.5 km over the Antarctic Peninsula shows high accuracy, with average yearly RMSE and bias of 5.5 mm w.e. yr−1 and 4.5 mm w.e. yr−1, respectively. Validation at five automatic weather stations reveals SUPREME's marked improvement with substantially lower average RMSE (81 mm w.e.) compared to RACMO 27 km (129 mm w.e.). Beyond the training region, SUPREME aligns more closely with remote sensing products associated with surface melt than super‐resolution models lacking physical constraints. While further validation of SUPREME is needed, our study highlights the potential of super‐resolution techniques with physical constraints for high‐resolution surface melt monitoring in Antarctica, providing insights into the impacts of localized melting on processes affecting ice shelf integrity such as hydrofracturing. Plain Language Summary: To improve surface melt monitoring in Antarctica, high‐resolution climate models are essential. Existing models, like the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO), do not have a fine enough spatial resolution to capture small‐scale melt processes. To overcome this, we introduce SUPREME (SUPer‐REsolution‐based Melt Estimation over Antarctica), a method that refines surface melt data to a higher resolution of 5.5 km using an advanced super‐resolution model. We enhance this model with physical information derived from observations directly related to surface melt, specifically using albedo and elevation data from remote sensing. By incorporating these observations, along with RACMO data at 27 km resolution, we account for the various triggers of surface melt across Antarctica. SUPREME accurately predicts high‐resolution surface melt beyond the training region of the Antarctic Peninsula, showing promising results compared to existing melt observations. Further validation is needed, but this approach, combining super‐resolution techniques and remote sensing data, holds potential for accurate surface melt monitoring in Antarctica. This may advance our understanding of the impacts of localized features on processes affecting ice shelf integrity such as meltwater‐induced hydrofracturing. Key Points: Our method downscales Antarctic surface melt from a regional climate model, employing a physically‐informed super‐resolution architectureThe super‐resolution model relies on physical information derived from remote sensing data, specifically surface albedo and elevationIncorporating physical information boosts model generalization, enabling accurate high‐resolution surface melt beyond the training region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated. High-resolution 2-km Antarctic maps reveal higher snowfall and surface melt than low-resolution products, reconciling satellite-observed ice sheet mass change. Projected higher surface melt near grounding lines threatens future ice shelf stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the existence of perennial firn aquifers in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has been confirmed by in situ observations. Previous studies have suggested that these subsurface aquifers, together with meltwater ponds at the surface, provide a reservoir of liquid water to feed propagating fractures, promoting hydrofracture-driven ice-shelf disintegration. This study maps perennial firn aquifers in the AP from space using C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from ESA's Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. With these observations, we detect firn aquifers at 1 km × 1 km resolution, for the period 2017 to 2020. Existing methods, that use S1 data and rely on a backscatter intensity difference threshold approach, are prone to misclassify late-melt events as aquifers, when applied to the AP. Therefore, we have developed and evaluated a new approach that is better suited to the Antarctic environment. The new method exploits the characteristic, gradual backscatter increase during the (partial) refreezing of the liquid water in the firn layer after the peak of the melt season. Most firn aquifers are detected in the north and northwest of the AP, as well as on the Wilkins and George VI ice shelves. Aquifer locations detected with the present methodology agree with in situ observations and with model simulations of firn water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea embayments of Antarctica causes ice shelves in the region to melt from below, potentially putting their stability at risk. Earlier studies have shown how digital elevation models can be used to obtain ice shelf basal melt rates at a high spatial resolution. However, there has been limited availability of high-resolution elevation data, a gap the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) has filled. In this study we use a novel combination of REMA and CryoSat-2 elevation data to obtain high-resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf in a Lagrangian framework, at a 50 m spatial posting on a 3-yearly temporal resolution. We present a novel method: Basal melt rates Using REMA and Google Earth Engine (BURGEE). The high resolution of BURGEE is supported through a sensitivity study of the Lagrangian displacement. The high-resolution basal melt rates show a good agreement with an earlier basal melt product based on CryoSat-2. Both products show a wide melt channel extending from the grounding line to the ice front, but our high-resolution product indicates that the pathway and spatial variability of this channel is influenced by a pinning point on the ice shelf. This result emphasizes the importance of high-resolution basal melt rates to expand our understanding of channel formation and melt patterns. BURGEE can be expanded to a pan-Antarctic study of high-resolution basal melt rates. This will provide a better picture of the (in)stability of Antarctic ice shelves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface melting occurs during summer on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, but the volume of stored surface meltwater has been difficult to quantify due to a lack of accurate depth estimates. NASA's ICESat‐2 laser altimeter brings a new capability: photons penetrate water and are reflected from both the water and the underlying ice; the difference provides a depth estimate. ICESat‐2 sampled Amery Ice Shelf on January 2, 2019 and showed double returns from surface depressions, indicating meltwater. For four melt features, we compared depth estimates from eight algorithms: six based on ICESat‐2 and two from coincident Landsat‐8 and Sentinel‐2 imagery. All algorithms successfully identified surface water at the same locations. Algorithms based on ICESat‐2 produced the most accurate depths; the image‐based algorithms underestimated depths (by 30%–70%). This implies that ICESat‐2 depths can be used to tune image‐based algorithms, moving us closer to quantifying stored meltwater volumes across Antarctica and Greenland. Plain Language Summary: Summer surface melting on Antarctica's ice shelves is a small component of overall ice sheet mass loss but can be important for individual ice shelves and may increase as the climate warms. However, the volume of meltwater has been difficult to monitor because depth estimates are challenging. NASA's ICESat‐2 laser altimetry mission brings a new capability to this problem. ICESat‐2 532 nm photons (green light) are able to pass through water and reflect from both the water surface and the underlying ice surface; the difference in elevation provides meltwater depth estimates. In this pilot study, we compared depths from eight algorithms (six ICESat‐2 and two image based) over four Amery Ice Shelf meltwater lakes for an ICESat‐2 pass in early January 2019. The ICESat‐2 algorithms all produced more reliable depth estimates, and the image‐based algorithms underestimated the depths. This implies that ICESat‐2 water depths can be used to tune image‐based depth retrieval algorithms, enabling improved performance and allowing us to estimate more accurately how much surface melt is stored in melt ponds on the ice sheets each summer. Key Points: ICESat‐2 photons penetrate surface melt lakes and reflect from both the water surface and the underlying ice, providing depth estimatesWe compared depths from eight algorithms (six ICESat‐2 and two image‐based) for four lakes present on Amery Ice Shelf in January 2019Depths from ICESat‐2 were more accurate than from imagery (30%–70% too low); merging these data will improve estimates ice‐sheet wide [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica with large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much and how fast both glaciers will weaken if these changes continue remains a major uncertainty as many of the processes that control their ice shelf weakening and grounding line retreat are not well understood. Here, we combine multisource satellite imagery with modeling to uncover the rapid development of damage areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas and open fractures and are first signs that the shear zones of both ice shelves have structurally weakened over the past decade. Idealized model results reveal moreover that the damage initiates a feedback process where initial ice shelf weakening triggers the development of damage in their shear zones, which results in further speedup, shearing, and weakening, hence promoting additional damage development. This damage feedback potentially preconditions these ice shelves for disintegration and enhances grounding line retreat. The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229 Gt with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution (~5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the influence of surface melt on Antarctic ice shelf stability can be large, the duration and affected area of melt events are often small. Therefore, melt events are difficult to capture with remote sensing, as satellite sensors always face the trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. To overcome this limitation, we developed UMelt: a surface melt record for all Antarctic ice shelves with a high spatial (500 m) and high temporal (12 h) resolution for the period 2016–2021. Our approach is based on a deep learning model, specifically a U-Net, which was developed in Google Earth Engine. The U-Net combines microwave remote sensing observations from three sources: Sentinel-1, Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS), and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). The U-Net was trained on the Shackleton Ice Shelf for melt seasons 2017–2021, using the fine-scale melt patterns of Sentinel-1 as reference data and SSMIS, ASCAT, a digital elevation model, and multi-year Sentinel-1 melt fraction as predictors. The trained U-Net performed well on the Shackelton Ice Shelf for test melt season 2016–2017 (accuracy: 91.3%; F1-score: 86.9%), and the Larsen C Ice Shelf, which was not considered during training (accuracy: 91.0%; F1-score: 89.3%). Using the trained U-Net model, we have successfully developed the UMelt record. UMelt allows Antarctic-wide surface melt to be detected at a small scale while preserving a high temporal resolution, which could lead to new insights into the response of ice shelves to a changing atmospheric forcing. • Satellite resolution trade-offs hamper accurate surface melt detection in Antarctica. • We present UMelt: An Antarctic-wide, high-resolution surface melt record. • UMelt was developed by merging multi-source remote sensing data using deep learning. • UMelt detects intricate surface melt events that were difficult to capture before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine lsland Glacier (PIG) and Thwaites Glacier (THW) in the Amundsen Sea Embayment are among the fastest changing outlet glaciers in West Antarctica. Over the last decades both glaciers have accelerated, retreated and thinned rapidly and if these changes continue, a sufficient weakening or loss of their ice shelves may result in marine ice sheet instability with substantial grounding line retreat and large consequences for global sea level. Yet, assessing how much, how fast the ice in the Amundsen Sea Embayment will change, remains a major uncertainty.In this study, we use time series of multi-source satellite imagery (i.e. Landsat, Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, Aster, Cryosat) to show the rapid development of damage areas on the PIG and THW ice shelves that appear crucial to the future of both glaciers, but are not included in current models of their retreat. These damage areas consist of highly crevassed areas near the grounding line and of open fractures that contain dense ice melange within the shear zones of both ice shelves. The observed damage compromises the integrity of both PIG and THW ice shelves, similar to the preconditioning of the shear zones of Larsen B prior to its collapse. To assess the importance of the damage in the shear zones, a continuum damage model (CDM) was coupled to the BISICLES ice sheet model. The model was applied on an idealized marine ice sheet geometry following the MISMIP+ setup which has strong similarities to PIG conditions. Several time-dependent simulations were carried using the CDM-BISICLES model with different ocean-induced melting and damage parameterizations. In this framework, several damage scenarios were implemented by locally enhancing damage in the shear zone at the grounding line. The model results highlight the importance of damage in the shear zones as driver for ice shelf instability as they precondition the ice shelves with structural weak zones. The model results also indicate that damage enhances thinning at the grounding line, in the shear zones and of grounded ice upstream. Finally, the model shows a speedup of the glacier tongue as a result of the damage, which results in an increase in strain rate and in velocity gradients across the shear zone similar to the increasing velocity gradients across PIG and THW observed by satellites since 1992.The damage also has an important impact on the modeled grounding line retreat as the enhanced damage scenarios in the model initiate a grounding line retreat equivalent to quadrupling the oceanic melting near the grounding line from 25 to 100 m/year. This illustrates that weakening these glaciers at their most vulnerable locations is a very effective way of introducing grounding line retreat, increased ice flux and hence mass loss. The combination of these satellite observations and model results suggest that damage processes are key to ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and future sea level contributions from Antarctica. Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating damage processes in models to improve sea level rise projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]