1. External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.
- Author
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Zhang X, Ren Y, Xie B, Wang S, Geng J, He X, Jiang D, He J, Luo S, Wang X, Song D, Fan M, and Dai H
- Subjects
- Humans, China epidemiology, East Asian People, Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis diagnosis, Lung Transplantation
- Abstract
Introduction: The GAP model was widely used as a simple risk "screening" method for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF)., Objectives: We sought to validate the GAP model in Chinese patients with IPF to evaluate whether it can accurately predict the risk for mortality., Methods: A total of 212 patients with IPF diagnosed at China-Japan Friendship Hospital from 2015 to 2019 were enrolled. The latest follow-up ended in September 2022. Cumulative mortality of each GAP stage was calculated and compared based on Fine-Gray models for survival, and lung transplantation was treated as a competing risk. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of both discrimination and calibration., Results: The cumulative mortality in patients with GAP stage III was significantly higher than that in those with GAP stage I or II (Gray's test p < 0.0001). The Harrell c-index for the GAP calculator was 0.736 (95% CI: 0.667-0.864). The discrimination for the GAP staging system were similar with that for the GAP calculator. The GAP model overestimated the mortality rate at 1- and 2-year in patients classified as GAP stage I (6.90% vs. 1.77% for 1-year, 14.20% vs. 6.78% for 2-year)., Conclusions: Our findings indicated that the GAP model overestimated the mortality rate in mild group., (© 2022 The Authors. The Clinical Respiratory Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)
- Published
- 2023
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