Search

Starting in 2013, the number of people requesting asylum via the credible fear program at the border between the United States and Mexico began to rapidly increase. Congress held a series of hearings during which politicians and other witnesses claimed that the surge was due to asylum seekers committing fraud en masse. This thesis reviews the literature and available data regarding asylum fraud to determine whether the claims of fraud in the credible fear program hold merit. This thesis also employs bivariate correlations and regression analyses to estimate the relationships between the number of credible fear receipts from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico and a selection of independent variables that measure conditions in those countries, U.S. and Mexican policy decisions, and other migration and benefit types. The review and statistical analyses suggest that the generalized claim of fraud does not satisfactorily explain the surge in credible fear receipts over the previous 10 years. Instead, the results suggest that the surge consisted of people genuinely seeking protection and that each country in this study has a unique set of variables that best explain credible fear receipts from that country alone. This thesis recommends that the U.S. government rely on statistical modeling to prepare for the fluctuations in the number of asylum seekers and to identify and help resolve the underlying factors that cause increases in people fleeing their countries. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The United States Asylum Program of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) under the Department of Homeland Security offers protection to some of the world’s most vulnerable populations. However, the program faces exploitation due to fraud. The government has yet to meaningfully incorporate federal law enforcement into asylum fraud deterrence because the government has not addressed disincentives for prosecutions and investigations. This thesis seeks to address how federal law enforcement can be better incentivized to prosecute asylum fraud. A case comparison method of international and domestic benefit-fraud prosecution initiatives against current asylum fraud-deterrence practices is utilized to understand how federal law enforcement can be better incorporated into asylum fraud-deterrence plans. The case comparison reveals several structural and resource issues currently disincentivizing asylum fraud prosecutions. This thesis recommends the establishment of a criminal immigration fraud section within the Department of Justice as well as the reprioritization of fraud in immigration law enforcement priorities to address those concerns. This research helps to address and highlight the lack of literature on asylum fraud and contributes to the consideration of a more comprehensive strategic asylum fraud deterrence plan. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Over the last decade, anti-immigrant sentiment has steadily increased in mainstream public and political discourse, the news, and on social media in the United States, causing deep political polarization among U.S. citizens and ostracization of certain immigrant groups. This thesis explores how the United States can use national service to strengthen cohesion between citizens and immigrants. Following a comparative analysis of one international and two domestic national service programs, this thesis finds that national service by itself does not necessarily bring diverse people together and cultivate close relationships or comradery; the program must have relevant and measurable objectives to be sustainable; and the program must be large scale to make lasting impact and change across a nation, and thus likely needs to be mandatory. Based on these findings, this thesis recommends that policy makers who wish to create a national service program that aims to strengthen cohesion between citizens and immigrants incorporate each of the following six elements: 1) commitment to diversity, inclusion, equity, and belonging, 2) measurable objectives, 3) parameterized participant selection for group formation, 4) program-provided group housing, transportation, and a food stipend, 5) near-peer mentor for every participant group, and 6) scale. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis analyzes the implications—legal, financial, and humanitarian—arising from immigrant detention in the United States. The methods used are as follows: legal analysis, both international and domestic; cost analysis of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities and private prisons; and comparative analysis of actual immigrant detention conditions to international norms and ICE’s self-imposed standards. This thesis finds the following: immigrant detention is legal in the United States with limited constitutional protections; the financial costs for immigrant detention are difficult to estimate accurately; U.S. immigrant detention practices appear to violate international norms; and ICE’s self-imposed standards are hard to meet. This thesis concludes policies that more clearly define the requirements for immigrant detention in the United States should be limited in use and scope. Furthermore, the U.S. government should either implement new laws and regulations or modify existing ones to establish a more consistent standard regarding which migrants without a lawful status should be detained pending criminal or administrative proceedings. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Mass migrations at the southwest border are nothing new, but surges in unaccompanied minors and family units crossing the border in short periods are increasingly overwhelming the U.S. government's capacity to respond, resulting in humanitarian, legal, and financial consequences. Due to the complex motivations for migrating, U.S. immigration authorities currently lack the ability to anticipate mass-migration events, making it difficult to prepare for them. This thesis poses the question of how the U.S. government can improve its foresight capacity to anticipate and manage mass-migration events. This thesis does not model mass-migration events, but rather demonstrates that such work is feasible and necessary. This analysis uses Maslow's hierarchy of needs as a framework to organize the reasons for migration and offers ways to quantify such factors. Next, it explores available technologies that could increase the accuracy of migration forecasting and various modeling methods that could be used to synthesize such data. This thesis then examines strategic foresight units across governments, identifying best practices that could be used to build out the capacity to conduct strategic forecasting within the mass-migration sphere. Ultimately, this thesis finds that strategic foresight vis-à-vis mass migration is possible and recommends creating a strategic foresight unit tasked with anticipating mass-migration flows. Outstanding Thesis Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The U.S. immigration system is the subject of an ongoing debate regarding necessary reforms to protect American national security and benefit all Americans economically. This thesis asks two questions: (1) How should the current U.S. immigration system be improved to address existing economic and national security concerns presented by legal immigration?, and (2) What elements from existing U.S. legal immigration programs, as well as from Canada’s and Australia’s legal immigration programs, can the United States incorporate in its revamped immigration policies? This thesis conducted a comparative analysis of the U.S. diversity immigrant visa and family-based immigration programs and existing merit-based immigration systems in Canada and Australia. The inquiry identified which of the aforementioned immigration programs have had a positive effect on their respective countries’ economies, based on levels of education and unemployment rates, and which immigration policies have resulted in fewer terrorist attacks by immigrants who come to each country, via relevant noted programs. This thesis found that although the U.S. diversity immigrant and family-based immigration programs are not perfect, they serve an important purpose and can be improved. This thesis recommends, among other things, introducing points-based human capital criteria into family-based immigration and instituting a five-year review of the U.S. immigration system. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The rhetoric of the Trump administration has fomented a belief among the U.S. public that refugees are a source of terrorism and a growing threat to the security of American citizens. This rhetoric has been reinforced by executive orders, regulations, and policies that have severely restricted the number of refugees admitted to the United States since 2017 and subjected those who enter to enhanced screening and vetting in an attempt to mitigate this perceived threat. This thesis assesses the actual scope of threat posed to the security of the United States by resettled refugees. Looking at quantitative data for attempted and perpetrated attacks by refugees in the United States, this thesis concludes that the threat posed to the U.S. homeland by resettled refugees is so minimal as to be statistically insignificant. Analyzing well-known examples of resettled refugees who have been radicalized to terrorism abroad, this thesis also concludes that the true risk of radicalization lies in the failed integration of these refugees into American society. Preventing the ostracism of refugees through policy changes to the refugee admissions program may serve to mitigate this risk and cure the misperceived fear of refugees among the public. Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

The United States has been colloquially considered a nation of immigrants. However, the subject of immigrant integration in the United States remains insufficiently explained. Prior research suggests an association between political participation and social integration within the American mainstream, but this relationship remains underexplored. This thesis investigates the relationship between political participation and integration, with particular reference to electoral participation and the act of voting. Drawing upon democratization literature, this thesis proposes a theory of integration through elections whereby electoral participation advances a newcomer's integration into their new host society. Through evaluating this theory of integration through elections within a mixed-methods research design, the results confirm a relationship between electoral participation and integration and suggest that electoral participation may facilitate the integration process. The results further contain implications for future studies of integration and for immigration policy in the United States. http://archive.org/details/assimilationthro1094566668 Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

From the Mariel boatlift in the 1980s to the recent mass migration of familial units from the Northern Triangle in 2019, the United States has consistently been unprepared to handle mass migration events. With the world approximately 1.0'C warmer than pre-industrial levels, climatic-driven migration events will now challenge the U.S. borders. This thesis explores how the United States might prepare to handle cross-border climate change'induced migration from a homeland security perspective. Using the research methodology of scenario planning, this study assesses the many ways the future might unfold by focusing on intersecting global megatrends and an array of global warming projections in the year 2050. As a result, this thesis finds that regardless of how the world chooses to combat global warming in the coming decades, migration will continue. If the United States is to prepare for such a future, regional agreements and national legislation will be necessary. In turn, if leveraged correctly, climate migrants can help the United States compete with future emerging economies. This thesis ultimately concludes that a proactive approach to cross-border climate change'induced migration might not only benefit climate migrants but also the future resiliency of United States well into the mid-century. Outstanding Thesis Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited

A diaspora of U.S.-born minors living in Mexico are falling under the radar of both U.S. and Mexican authorities. Referred to in this thesis as reverse dreamers, many of these minors express interest in repatriating to the United States in the near future, and the U.S. government is severely underprepared for their return. This thesis explores the social, personal, psychological, political, and ethical implications of reverse dreamers and the policies that might mitigate the growing concerns. Using demographic research, signals analysis, fictional narratives, and scenario planning, the thesis outlines the core struggles of the reverse dreamer population during transitions to Mexico and back to the United States. Two fictional narratives imagine the plight of a reverse dreamer, shown first as an eleven-year-old boy and then as an adult. A third narrative depicts an overwhelmed U.S. government with an influx of repatriating reverse dreamers. Based on the research, the thesis presents a set of recommendations for U.S. policymakers, such as the creation of a special consular unit at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico to liaise with reverse dreamers and government authorities from both countries. Moreover, if we can identify reverse dreamers in Mexico and provide them with necessary resources and advocacy, we can help ensure that they return home with the foundation needed to become productive U.S. citizens in the future. http://archive.org/details/ahomedeferredthe1094564855 Civilian, Department of Homeland Security Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.