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Although antiretroviral drug therapy suppresses human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) to undetectable levels in the blood of treated individuals, reservoirs of replication competent HIV-1 endure. Upon cessation of antiretroviral therapy, the reservoir usually allows outgrowth of virus and approaches to targeting the reservoir have had limited success. Ongoing cycles of viral replication in regions with low drug penetration contribute to this persistence. Here, we use a mathematical model to illustrate a new approach to eliminating the part of the reservoir attributable to persistent replication in drug sanctuaries. Reducing the residency time of CD4 T cells in drug sanctuaries renders ongoing replication unsustainable in those sanctuaries. We hypothesize that, in combination with antiretroviral drugs, a strategy to orchestrate CD4 T cell trafficking could contribute to a functional cure for HIV-1 infection., Author summary Despite the success of potent antiretroviral therapy in suppressing the amount of virus in peripheral blood for long periods of time, a reservoir of infectious virus persists in CD4 T cells, implying the need for long-term treatment. Strategies to control and ultimately eliminate the viral reservoir within specific tissue compartments will need to target virus that persists in both a long-lived reservoir of infectious virus in CD4 T cells as well as low-levels of viral replication that continues despite antiretroviral drug therapy. Using a mathematical model, we describe a hypothetical new therapeutic approach to eliminating HIV-1 persistence in these ‘drug sanctuaries’. Specifically, we show that therapy that increases the rate that the target cells for HIV-1 flow through drug sanctuaries could stop continuous cycles of replication. Used in combination with antiretroviral treatment, such a therapy could contribute to a functional cure for HIV-1.

Objective:\ud This article predicts the future epidemiology of HIV-2 in Caió, a rural region of Guinea Bissau; and investigates whether HIV-2, which has halved in prevalence between 1990 and 2007 and is now almost absent in young adults in Caió, can persist as an infection of the elderly.\ud Design:\ud A mathematical model of the spread of HIV-2 was tailored to the epidemic in Caió, a village in Guinea-Bissau.\ud Methods:\ud An age-stratified difference equation model of HIV-2 transmission was fitted to age-stratified HIV-2 incidence and prevalence data from surveys conducted in Caió in 1990, 1997 and 2007. A stochastic version of the same model was used to make projections.\ud Results:\ud HIV-2 infection is predicted to continue to rapidly decline in Caió such that new infections will cease and prevalence will reach low levels (e.g. below 0.1%) within a few decades. HIV-2 is not predicted to persist in the elderly.\ud Conclusion:\ud HIV-2 is predicted go extinct in Caió during the second half of this century.

Lymphoid tissue is a key reservoir established by HIV-1 during acute infection. It is a site associated with viral production, storage of viral particles in immune complexes, and viral persistence. Although combinations of antiretroviral drugs usually suppress viral replication and reduce viral RNA to undetectable levels in blood, it is unclear whether treatment fully suppresses viral replication in lymphoid tissue reservoirs. Here we show that virus evolution and trafficking between tissue compartments continues in patients with undetectable levels of virus in their bloodstream. We present a spatial and dynamic model of persistent viral replication and spread that indicates why the development of drug resistance is not a foregone conclusion under conditions in which drug concentrations are insufficient to completely block virus replication. These data provide new insights into the evolutionary and infection dynamics of the virus population within the host, revealing that HIV-1 can continue to replicate and replenish the viral reservoir despite potent antiretroviral therapy.

Identifying human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) immune escape mutations has implications for understanding the impact of host immunity on pathogen evolution and guiding the choice of vaccine antigens. One means of identifying cytotoxic-T-lymphocyte (CTL) escape mutations is to search for statistical associations between mutations and host human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I alleles at the population level. The impact of evolutionary rates on the strength of such associations is not well defined. Here, we address this topic using a mathematical model of within-host evolution and between-host transmission of CTL escape mutants that predicts the prevalence of escape mutants at the population level. We ask how the rates at which an escape mutation emerges in a host who bears the restricting HLA and reverts when transmitted to a host who does not bear the HLA affect the strength of an association. We consider the impact of these factors when using a standard statistical method to test for an association and when using an adaptation of that method that corrects for phylogenetic relationships. We show that with both methods, the average sample size required to identify an escape mutation is smaller if the mutation escapes and reverts quickly. Thus, escape mutations identified as HLA associated systematically favor those that escape and revert rapidly. We also present expressions that can be used to infer escape and reversion rates from cross-sectional escape prevalence data.

Because cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) have been shown to play a role in controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and because CTL-based simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) vaccines have proved effective in non-human primates, one goal of HIV vaccine design is to elicit effective CTL responses in humans. Such a vaccine could improve viral control in patients who later become infected, thereby reducing onwards transmission and enhancing life expectancy in the absence of treatment. The ability of HIV to evolve mutations that evade CTLs and the ability of these ‘escape mutants’ to spread amongst the population poses a challenge to the development of an effective and robust vaccine. We present a mathematical model of within-host evolution and between-host transmission of CTL escape mutants amongst a population receiving a vaccine that elicits CTL responses to multiple epitopes. Within-host evolution at each epitope is represented by the outgrowth of escape mutants in hosts who restrict the epitope and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope. We use this model to investigate how the evolution and spread of escape mutants could affect the impact of a vaccine. We show that in the absence of escape, such a vaccine could markedly reduce the prevalence of both infection and disease in the population. However the impact of such a vaccine could be significantly abated by CTL escape mutants, especially if their selection in hosts who restrict the epitope is rapid and their reversion in hosts who do not restrict the epitope is slow. We also use the model to address whether a vaccine should span a broad or narrow range of CTL epitopes and target epitopes restricted by rare or common HLA types. We discuss the implications and limitations of our findings., Author Summary The evolution and spread of HIV strains that evade the immune response poses a major challenge to the development of an effective and robust HIV vaccine. We present a new mathematical tool that we use to dissect the drivers of the spread of these ‘immune escape mutants’ in a vaccinated population. Our study focuses on a vaccine that can reduce infectiousness and enhance longevity but does not provide sterilizing immunity. We show that in the absence of escape such a vaccine could reduce the prevalence of both infection and disease in the population. However, vaccine impact could be significantly abated by immune escape mutants, especially if they emerge rapidly and revert very slowly after transmission to hosts in whom the original selection pressure is absent. We also discuss the effect that vaccine breadth and the frequency with which different epitopes are targeted have upon vaccine impact.

The combination of mathematical modelling and data analysis to understand the within-host dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections has been one of the most informative uses of mathematical biology in the last decade. Simple models of viral dynamics together with viral load measurements provided an early estimate that the turnover of HIV infected cells is very rapid: most do not survive beyond 1 day. Although this estimate was initially a surprise to the field, further corroborating evidence has made it widely accepted. More recently, within-host models have been used to investigate the efficacy of cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) in controlling HIV infection. Though there is clear experimental evidence that they play some role, the magnitude of this role remains contentious. Models have offered three insights on this topic. Firstly, in chronically infected humans fewer than 20% of HIV-infected cell death is attributed to killing by CTLs. Secondly, CTLs are more efficient in acute infection than chronic infection, but not dramatically so, and thirdly, CTLs are markedly more efficient in simian than human immunodeficiency viral infection. Although based on simple models and repeatable data, the main prediction of this work that CTL vaccines might work in macaques but not in humans is yet to gain recognition. This is despite the fact that this prediction was borne out by the failure of STEP vaccine. We contend that in time this assertion too will become more widely accepted.

To determine the relative fitness of oseltamivir-resistant strains compared to susceptible wild-type viruses, we combined mathematical modeling and statistical techniques with a novel in vivo “competitive-mixtures” experimental model. Ferrets were coinfected with either pure populations (100% susceptible wild-type or 100% oseltamivir-resistant mutant virus) or mixed populations of wild-type and oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses (80%:20%, 50%:50%, and 20%:80%) at equivalent infectivity titers, and the changes in the relative proportions of those two viruses were monitored over the course of the infection during within-host and over host-to-host transmission events in a ferret contact model. Coinfection of ferrets with mixtures of an oseltamivir-resistant R292K mutant A(H3N2) virus and a R292 oseltamivir-susceptible wild-type virus demonstrated that the R292K mutant virus was rapidly outgrown by the R292 wild-type virus in artificially infected donor ferrets and did not transmit to any of the recipient ferrets. The competitive-mixtures model was also used to investigate the fitness of the seasonal A(H1N1) oseltamivir-resistant H274Y mutant and showed that within infected ferrets the H274Y mutant virus was marginally outgrown by the wild-type strain but demonstrated equivalent transmissibility between ferrets. This novel in vivo experimental method and accompanying mathematical analysis provide greater insight into the relative fitness, both within the host and between hosts, of two different influenza virus strains compared to more traditional methods that infect ferrets with only pure populations of viruses. Our statistical inferences are essential for the development of the next generation of mathematical models of the emergence and spread of oseltamivir-resistant influenza in human populations.

Strong competition between cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs) specific for different epitopes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection would have important implications for the design of an HIV vaccine. To investigate evidence for this type of competition, we analysed CTL response data from 97 patients with chronic HIV infection who were frequently sampled for up to 96 weeks. For each sample, CTL responses directed against a range of known epitopes in gag, pol and nef were measured using an enzyme-linked immunospot assay. The Lotka–Volterra model of competition was used to predict patterns that would be expected from these data if competitive interactions materially affect CTL numbers. In this application, the model predicts that when hosts make responses to a larger number of epitopes, they would have diminished responses to each epitope and that if one epitope-specific response becomes dramatically smaller, others would increase in size to compensate; conversely if one response grows, others would shrink. Analysis of the experimental data reveals results that are wholly inconsistent with these predictions. In hosts who respond to more epitopes, the average epitope-specific response tends to be larger, not smaller. Furthermore, responses to different epitopes almost always increase in unison or decrease in unison. Our findings are therefore inconsistent with the hypothesis that there is competition between CTL responses directed against different epitopes in HIV infection. This suggests that vaccines that elicit broad responses would be favourable because they would direct a larger total response against the virus, in addition to being more robust to the effects of CTL escape., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276 (1677), ISSN:0080-4649, ISSN:0950-1193, ISSN:1471-2954, ISSN:0962-8452

Background We aimed to characterize the molecular epidemiology of HIV type-1 (HIV-1) and the prevalence of drug- associated mutations prior to initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the Free State province, South Africa. The Free State has a population of 3 million, an antenatal HIV prevalence of approximately 34% and a well established infrastucture for antiretroviral (ARV) provision. Methods HIV-1 polymerase genes were sequenced from 425 HAART-naive HIV-1-positive patients at voluntary primary healthcare HIV testing centres, who were subsequently attending district centres for assessment for commencing ARVs. Patients (>18 years) were sampled randomly with no exclusion for gender or clinical criteria. Sequences were analysed according to phylogeny and drug resistance. Results Phylogenetic clustering within the cohort was suggestive of multiple introductions of subtype C virus into the region. Drug resistance mutations (according to the International AIDS Society-USA classification) were distributed randomly across the cohort phylogeny with an overall prevalence of 2.3% in the sampled patients. When stratified according to CD4+ T-cell count, the prevalence of resistance was 3.6%, 0.9% and 1.2% for CD4+ T-cell counts 500 cells/μ l, respectively, and was most common for non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance (3.1% in patients with CD4+ T-cell count + T-cell counts ( P=0.003), suggesting unrecognized exposure to ARVs. Conclusions In the Free State population, there was a statistical association between low CD4+ T-cell counts and drug-associated viral polymorphisms. Our data advocate the benefit of detailed history taking from patients starting HAART at low CD4+ T-cell counts with close follow-up of the virological response.