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Models are designed to provide evidence for strategic program planning by examining the impact of different interventions on projected HIV incidence. We employed the Goals Model to fit the HIV epidemic curves in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu states of India where HIV epidemic is considered to have matured and in a declining phase. Input data in the Goals Model consisted of demographic, epidemiological, transmission-related and risk group wise behavioral parameters. The HIV prevalence curves generated in the Goals Model for each risk group in the three states were compared with the epidemic curves generated by the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) that the national program is routinely using. In all the three states, the HIV prevalence trends for high-risk populations simulated by the Goals Model matched well with those derived using state-level HIV surveillance data in the EPP. However, trends for the low- and medium-risk populations differed between the two models. This highlights the need to generate more representative and robust data in these sub-populations and consider some structural changes in the modeling equation and parameters in the Goals Model to effectively use it to assess the impact of future strategies of HIV control in various sub-populations in India at the sub-national level., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010-2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included an Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, gender-ratio at birth, age and gender-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age-gender distribution of net migration were derived from census records, the Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35-0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24-0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22-0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exclusive breastfeeding up to six months is considered to be beneficial for the health and wellbeing of infants and mothers. To guide policy makers in the development of targeted breastfeeding promotion strategies, changes in the effect of predictor variables on exclusive breastfeeding practices in India were examined. Methods: Data from two rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) carried out in India during 1992-93 (NFHS-1), and 2005-06 (NFHS-3) were analysed. A total of 34,176 and 25,459 births under three years of age in NFHS-1 and NFHS-3 respectively comprised the sample. Exclusive breastfeeding was defined as infants zero to five months of age who received only breast milk in previous 24 h. The practice of exclusive breastfeeding was examined at different ages (1, 4 and 6 months) against a set of predictor variables using bivariate and multinomial logistic regression in conjunction with the multiple classification analysis. Results: Overall 46.3 per cent and 48.6 per cent of infants under six months of age were exclusively breastfed in NFHS-1 and NFHS-3 respectively. The proportion declined with each additional month of age, and at four months only 24 per cent infants in NFHS-1 and 31 per cent infants in NFHS-3 were exclusively breastfeeding. In the NFHS-1 a higher proportion of infants perceived to be small size at birth and those with mothers in gainful employment were exclusively breastfed. While in infants of mothers living in urban areas, older mothers (aged ≥ 35 years), more literate mothers, belonging to a higher standard of living index, preceding birth interval less than two years, and in those who had antenatal/natal care, a lower proportion of exclusive breastfeeding was observed at different ages of the infant. However, in the NFHS-3, children of older mothers and of those who were less educated the proportion of exclusive breastfeeding was significantly greater at one month of age. In the age segment one to four months; exclusive breastfeeding was significantly lower in infants born to older mothers, from medium standard of living households and perceived to be of small size at birth. Infants of mothers who were more educated, aged ≥ 35 years, living in urban areas and who had antenatal/natal care were the factors associated with a lower proportion of exclusive breastfeeding at six months of age. Conclusions: The rate of exclusive breastfeeding in India continues to be sub-optimal with no appreciable gains in the last ten to fifteen years. Interventions that seek to increase exclusive breastfeeding should be timely with an increased focus on mothers with infants four to six months of age and in those who are most at risk of early discontinuation of exclusive breastfeeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]