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Objectives Few studies have evaluated determinants of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Vibrio cholerae O1 in older children and adults. This study aimed to characterize the prevalence of MDR V. cholerae O1 and associated risk factors among patients over five years of age in Bangladesh. Methods Stool culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing were performed as a part of a larger study at Dhaka Hospital in Bangladesh from March 2019–March 2020. Univariate statistics and multiple logistic regression were used to assess the association between a range of variables and MDR V. cholerae O1. Results MDR was found in 175 of 623 (28.1%) V. cholerae O1 isolates. High levels of resistance were found to erythromycin (99.2%), trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (99.7%), and ampicillin (88.9%), while susceptibility was high to tetracyclines (99.7%), azithromycin (99.2%), ciprofloxacin (99.8%), and cephalosporins (98.6%). MDR was associated with prior antibiotic use, longer transport time to hospital, higher income, non-flush toilet use, greater stool frequency, lower blood pressure, lower mid-upper arm circumference, and lower percent dehydration. Conclusions MDR V. cholerae O1 was common among patients over five in an urban hospital in Bangladesh. Significant factors associated with MDR may be actionable in identifying patients with a high likelihood of MDR.

Rapid diagnostic tools for children with Ebola virus disease (EVD) are needed to expedite isolation and treatment. To evaluate a predictive diagnostic tool, we examined retrospective data (2014-2015) from the International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in West Africa. We incorporated statistically derived candidate predictors into a 7-point Pediatric Ebola Risk Score. Evidence of bleeding or having known or no known Ebola contacts was positively associated with an EVD diagnosis, whereas abdominal pain was negatively associated. Model discrimination using area under the curve (AUC) was 0.87, which outperforms the World Health Organization criteria (AUC 0.56). External validation, performed by using data from International Medical Corps Ebola Treatment Centers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo during 2018-2019, showed an AUC of 0.70. External validation showed that discrimination achieved by using World Health Organization criteria was similar; however, the Pediatric Ebola Risk Score is simpler to use.

In 2016, diarrheal disease was the eighth leading cause of mortality globally accounting for over 1.6 million deaths with the majority of deaths in adults and children over 5 years. This study aims to investigate the clinical, sociodemographic, and environmental risk factors associated with common bacterial acute diarrhea among adults and children over 5. Data were collected from March 2019 to March 2020 in patients over 5 years presenting with acute gastroenteritis at icddr,b. Stool samples were collected from each patient for culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Bivariate associations between independent variables and stool-testing indicating bacterial etiology were calculated. This analysis included 2,133 diarrheal patients of whom a bacterial enteropathogen was identified in 1,537 (72%). Detection of bacteria was associated with: younger age (OR 0.92; 95% CI: 0.88–0.96), lower mean arterial pressure (OR 0.84; 95% CI: 0.79–0.89), heart rate (OR 1.06; 95% CI: 1.01–1.10), percentage dehydration (OR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.13–1.55), respiration rate (OR 1.23; 95% CI: 1.04–1.46), lower mid-upper arm circumference (OR 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94–0.99), confused/lethargic mental status (OR 1.85; 95% CI: 1.11–3.25), rice watery stool (OR 1.92; 95% CI: 1.54–2.41), and vomiting more than three times in the past 24 hours (OR 1.30; 95% CI: 1.06–1.58). Higher monthly income (OR 0.92; 95% CI: 0.86–0.98), > 8 years of education (OR 0.79; 95% CI: 0.63–1.00), and having more than five people living at home (OR 0.80; 95% CI: 0.66–0.98) were associated with lower odds of bacterial diarrhea. These findings may help guide the development of predictive tools to aid in identifying patients with bacterial diarrhea for timely and appropriate use of antibiotics.

Background Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) causes high case fatality rates (CFRs) in young children, yet there are limited data focusing on predicting mortality in pediatric patients. Here we present machine learning-derived prognostic models to predict clinical outcomes in children infected with Ebola virus. Methods Using retrospective data from the Ebola Data Platform, we investigated children with EVD from the West African EVD outbreak in 2014–2016. Elastic net regularization was used to create a prognostic model for EVD mortality. In addition to external validation with data from the 2018–2020 EVD epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), we updated the model using selected serum biomarkers. Findings Pediatric EVD mortality was significantly associated with younger age, lower PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values, unexplained bleeding, respiratory distress, bone/muscle pain, anorexia, dysphagia, and diarrhea. These variables were combined to develop the newly described EVD Prognosis in Children (EPiC) predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for EPiC was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74–0.81) in the West Africa derivation dataset and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64–0.88) in the DRC validation dataset. Updating the model with peak aspartate aminotransferase (AST) or creatinine kinase (CK) measured within the first 48 hours after admission increased the AUC to 0.90 (0.77–1.00) and 0.87 (0.74–1.00), respectively. Conclusion The novel EPiC prognostic model that incorporates clinical information and commonly used biochemical tests, such as AST and CK, can be used to predict mortality in children with EVD.

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health threat and is increasingly prevalent among enteric pathogens in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, the burden of multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) in older children, adults, and elderly patients with acute diarrhea in LMICs is poorly understood. This study’s aim was to characterize the prevalence of MDR enteric pathogens isolated from patients with acute diarrhea in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and assess a wide range of risk factors associated with MDR. Methods This study was a secondary analysis of data collected from children over 5 years, adults, and elderly patients with acute diarrhea at the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh Dhaka Hospital between March 2019 and March 2020. Clinical, historical, socio-environmental information, and a stool sample for culture and antimicrobial susceptibility testing were collected from each patient. Univariate statistics and multiple logistic regression were used to assess the prevalence of MDR among enteric pathogens and the association between independent variables and presence of MRDOs among culture-positive patients. Results A total of 1198 patients had pathogens isolated by stool culture with antimicrobial susceptibility results. Among culture-positive patients, the prevalence of MDR was 54.3%. The prevalence of MDR was highest in Aeromonas spp. (81.5%), followed by Campylobacter spp. (72.1%), Vibrio cholerae (28.1%), Shigella spp. (26.2%), and Salmonella spp. (5.2%). Factors associated with having MDRO in multiple logistic regression included longer transport time to hospital (>90 min), greater stool frequency, prior antibiotic use prior to hospital presentation, and non-flush toilet use. However, pseudo-R2 was low 0.086, indicating that other unmeasured variables need to be considered to build a more robust predictive model of MDR. Conclusions MDR enteric pathogens were common in this study population with clinical, historical, and socio-environmental risk factors associated with MDROs. These findings may help guide clinical decision-making regarding antibiotic use and selection in patients at greatest risk of complications due to MDROs. Further prospective research is urgently needed to determine what additional factors place patients at greatest risk of MDRO, and the best strategies to mitigate the spread of MDR in enteric pathogens.

Background Real-world studies have aimed to compare the effects of 8- and 12-week ledipasvir/sofosbuvir regimens on sustained virological response (SVR) among HCV infection genotype-1 (HCV-1) treatment-naive patients. Nevertheless, real-world comparative effectiveness studies pose unique challenges, such as confounding by indication, that were not adequately addressed in prior studies. We thus aimed to address limitations in prior studies and compare overall- and subgroup-specific effectiveness of 8- and 12-week ledipasvir/sofosbuvir regimens among HCV-1 treatment-naive patients. Methods Patients eligible for our study were aged ≥18 years and initiated 8- or 12-week ledipasvir/sofosbuvir regimens for treatment-naive HCV-1 at an urban public hospital network. We excluded patients with HIV or cirrhosis. We used marginal structural models to estimate overall and subgroup-specific risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence limits (CL) comparing the effect of 8- and 12-week ledipasvir/sofosbuvir regimens on 12-week SVR. Results Our study population comprised 191 patients. Among both regimens, the majority were aged >50 years, non-Hispanic White and uninsured. The overall risk of SVR was comparable between the 8- and 12-week regimens (RR=1.01, 95% CL: 0.92, 1.11). The risk of SVR did not vary by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black: RR=1.01, 95% CL: 0.84, 1.21; non-Hispanic White: RR=1.01, 95% CL: 0.89, 1.04). Conclusions Our real-world results suggest that 8- and 12-week ledipasvir/sofosbuvir have comparable effects on SVR among HCV-1 patients without cirrhosis or HIV. In addition, the comparable effectiveness of 8- and 12-week regimens among non-Hispanic Black individuals adds to the growing body of evidence that supports the removal of race-based treatment guidelines.