21 results on '"Uzicanin, Amra"'
Search Results
2. Pandemic diseases preparedness and response in the age of COVID‐19—a symposium report.
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Cable, Jennifer, Heymann, David L., Uzicanin, Amra, Tomori, Oyewale, Marinissen, Maria Julia, Katz, Rebecca, Kerr, Larry, Lurie, Nicole, Parker, Gerald W., Madad, Syra, Maldin Morgenthau, Beth, Osterholm, Michael T., and Borio, Luciana
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PANDEMICS , *COVID-19 , *COVID-19 pandemic , *SARS-CoV-2 , *PREPAREDNESS , *EBOLA virus disease - Abstract
For years, experts have warned that a global pandemic was only a matter of time. Indeed, over the past two decades, several outbreaks and pandemics, from SARS to Ebola, have tested our ability to respond to a disease threat and provided the opportunity to refine our preparedness systems. However, when a novel coronavirus with human‐to‐human transmissibility emerged in China in 2019, many of these systems were found lacking. From international disputes over data and resources to individual disagreements over the effectiveness of facemasks, the COVID‐19 pandemic has revealed several vulnerabilities. As of early November 2020, the WHO has confirmed over 46 million cases and 1.2 million deaths worldwide. While the world will likely be reeling from the effects of COVID‐19 for months, and perhaps years, to come, one key question must be asked, How can we do better next time? This report summarizes views of experts from around the world on how lessons from past pandemics have shaped our current disease preparedness and response efforts, and how the COVID‐19 pandemic may offer an opportunity to reinvent public health and healthcare systems to be more robust the next time a major challenge appears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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3. Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States.
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Dauelsberg, Lori R., Maskery, Brian, Joo, Heesoo, Germann, Timothy C., Del Valle, Sara Y., and Uzicanin, Amra
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SCHOOL closings , *PANDEMIC preparedness , *COST effectiveness , *INFLUENZA , *REGULATORY impact analysis , *H7N9 Influenza - Abstract
Background: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. Methods: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. Results: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $7.5 billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $97 billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district–wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31–47 million) and deaths (105,000–156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($88-$103 billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. Conclusions: We found that the net costs per death averted ($180,000-$4.2 million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($4.6 to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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4. Effect of planned school breaks on student absenteeism due to influenza‐like illness in school aged children—Oregon School District, Wisconsin September 2014–June 2019.
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He, Cecilia, Norton, Derek, Temte, Jonathan L., Barlow, Shari, Goss, Maureen, Temte, Emily, Bell, Cristalyne, Chen, Guanhua, and Uzicanin, Amra
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SCHOOL districts , *SCHOOL children , *SCHOOL absenteeism , *SCHOOL vacations , *SEASONAL influenza , *COVID-19 - Abstract
Background: School‐aged children and school reopening dates have important roles in community influenza transmission. Although many studies evaluated the impact of reactive closures during seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks on medically attended influenza in surrounding communities, few assess the impact of planned breaks (i.e., school holidays) that coincide with influenza seasons, while accounting for differences in seasonal peak timing. Here, we analyze the effects of winter and spring breaks on influenza risk in school‐aged children, measured by student absenteeism due to influenza‐like illness (a‐ILI). Methods: We compared a‐ILI counts in the 2‐week periods before and after each winter and spring break over five consecutive years in a single school district. We introduced a "pseudo‐break" of 9 days' duration between winter and spring break each year when school was still in session to serve as a control. The same analysis was applied to each pseudo‐break to support any findings of true impact. Results: We found strong associations between winter and spring breaks and a reduction in influenza risk, with a nearly 50% reduction in a‐ILI counts post‐break compared with the period before break, and the greatest impact when break coincided with increased local influenza activity while accounting for possible temporal and community risk confounders. Conclusions: These findings suggest that brief breaks of in‐person schooling, such as planned breaks lasting 9–16 calendar days, can effectively reduce influenza in schools and community spread. Additional analyses investigating the impact of well‐timed shorter breaks on a‐ILI may determine an optimal duration for brief school closures to effectively suppress community transmission of influenza. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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5. COVID-19-Related School Closures, United States, July 27, 2020-June 30, 2022.
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Zviedrite, Nicole, Jahan, Ferdous, Moreland, Sarah, Ahmed, Faruque, and Uzicanin, Amra
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SCHOOL closings , *DIAGNOSTIC use of polymerase chain reaction , *ELECTRONIC information resource searching , *INFLUENZA , *STATISTICAL correlation , *SCHOOL absenteeism - Abstract
As part of a multiyear project that monitored illness-related school closures, we conducted systematic daily online searches during July 27, 2020-June 30, 2022, to identify public announcements of COVID-19-related school closures (COVID-SCs) in the United States lasting >1 day. We explored the temporospatial patterns of COVID-SCs and analyzed associations between COVID-SCs and national COVID-19 surveillance data. COVID-SCs reflected national surveillance data: correlation was highest between COVID-SCs and both new PCR test positivity (correlation coefficient [r] = 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.84) and new cases (r = 0.72, 95% CI 0.54-0.83) during 2020-21 and with hospitalization rates among all ages (r = 0.81, 95% CI 0.67-0.89) during 2021-22. The numbers of reactive COVID-SCs during 2020-21 and 2021-22 greatly exceeded previously observed numbers of illness-related reactive school closures in the United States, notably being nearly 5-fold greater than reactive closures observed during the 2009 influenza (H1N1) pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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6. Changing pattern of respiratory virus detections among school‐aged children in a small community – Dane County, Wisconsin, September to December 2022.
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Temte, Jonathan L., Goss, Maureen, Bell, Cristalyne, Barlow, Shari, Temte, Emily, Bateman, Allen, and Uzicanin, Amra
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COMMUNITIES , *SCHOOL children , *ACUTE diseases , *SCHOOL closings , *DANES , *SARS-CoV-2 - Abstract
Widespread school closures and other non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), used to limit the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2, significantly disrupted transmission patterns of seasonal respiratory viruses. As NPIs were relaxed, populations were vulnerable to resurgence. This study within a small community assessed acute respiratory illness among kindergarten through grade 12 students as they returned to public schools from September through December 2022 without masking and distancing requirements. The 277 specimens collected demonstrated a shift from rhinovirus to influenza. With continued circulation of SARS‐CoV‐2 and return of seasonal respiratory viruses, understanding evolving transmission patterns will play an important role in reducing disease burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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7. Cause-specific student absenteeism monitoring in K-12 schools for detection of increased influenza activity in the surrounding community—Dane County, Wisconsin, 2014–2020.
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Temte, Jonathan L., Barlow, Shari, Goss, Maureen, Temte, Emily, Schemmel, Amber, Bell, Cristalyne, Reisdorf, Erik, Shult, Peter, Wedig, Mary, Haupt, Thomas, Conway, James H., Gangnon, Ronald, and Uzicanin, Amra
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SCHOOL absenteeism , *SEASONAL influenza , *LEAD time (Supply chain management) , *SCHOOL districts , *INFECTIOUS disease transmission , *INFLUENZA - Abstract
Background: Schools are primary venues of influenza amplification with secondary spread to communities. We assessed K-12 student absenteeism monitoring as a means for early detection of influenza activity in the community. Materials and methods: Between September 2014 and March 2020, we conducted a prospective observational study of all-cause (a-TOT), illness-associated (a-I), and influenza-like illness–associated (a-ILI) absenteeism within the Oregon School District (OSD), Dane County, Wisconsin. Absenteeism was reported through the electronic student information system. Students were visited at home where pharyngeal specimens were collected for influenza RT-PCR testing. Surveillance of medically-attended laboratory-confirmed influenza (MAI) occurred in five primary care clinics in and adjoining the OSD. Poisson general additive log linear regression models of daily counts of absenteeism and MAI were compared using correlation analysis. Findings: Influenza was detected in 723 of 2,378 visited students, and in 1,327 of 4,903 MAI patients. Over six influenza seasons, a-ILI was significantly correlated with MAI in the community (r = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.53–0.63) with a one-day lead time and a-I was significantly correlated with MAI in the community (r = 0.49; 0.44–0.54) with a 10-day lead time, while a-TOT performed poorly (r = 0.27; 0.21–0.33), following MAI by six days. Discussion: Surveillance using cause-specific absenteeism was feasible and performed well over a study period marked by diverse presentations of seasonal influenza. Monitoring a-I and a-ILI can provide early warning of seasonal influenza in time for community mitigation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2022
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8. Predicting virologically confirmed influenza using school absences in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA during the 2007‐2015 influenza seasons.
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Quandelacy, Talia M., Zimmer, Shanta, Lessler, Justin, Vukotich, Charles, Bieltz, Rachel, Grantz, Kyra H., Galloway, David, Read, Jonathan M., Zheteyeva, Yenlik, Gao, Hongjiang, Uzicanin, Amra, and Cummings, Derek A. T.
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INFLUENZA , *SCHOOL districts , *HEALTH facilities , *SEASONS , *HUMIDITY , *SCHOOL children - Abstract
Background: Children are important in community‐level influenza transmission. School‐based monitoring may inform influenza surveillance. Methods: We used reported weekly confirmed influenza in Allegheny County during the 2007 and 2010‐2015 influenza seasons using Pennsylvania's Allegheny County Health Department all‐age influenza cases from health facilities, and all‐cause and influenza‐like illness (ILI)‐specific absences from nine county school districts. Negative binomial regression predicted influenza cases using all‐cause and illness‐specific absence rates, calendar week, average weekly temperature, and relative humidity, using four cross‐validations. Results: School districts reported 2 184 220 all‐cause absences (2010‐2015). Three one‐season studies reported 19 577 all‐cause and 3012 ILI‐related absences (2007, 2012, 2015). Over seven seasons, 11 946 confirmed influenza cases were reported. Absences improved seasonal model fits and predictions. Multivariate models using elementary school absences outperformed middle and high school models (relative mean absolute error (relMAE) = 0.94, 0.98, 0.99). K‐5 grade‐specific absence models had lowest mean absolute errors (MAE) in cross‐validations. ILI‐specific absences performed marginally better than all‐cause absences in two years, adjusting for other covariates, but markedly worse one year. Conclusions: Our findings suggest seasonal models including K‐5th grade absences predict all‐age‐confirmed influenza and may serve as a useful surveillance tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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9. Influenza and other respiratory viral infections associated with absence from school among schoolchildren in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA: a cohort study.
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Read, Jonathan M., Zimmer, Shanta, Vukotich, Charles, Schweizer, Mary Lou, Galloway, David, Lingle, Carrie, Yearwood, Gaby, Calderone, Patti, Noble, Eva, Quadelacy, Talia, Grantz, Kyra, Rinaldo, Charles, Gao, Hongjiang, Rainey, Jeanette, Uzicanin, Amra, Cummings, Derek A. T., and Vukotich, Charles Jr
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SCHOOL attendance , *VIRUS diseases , *RESPIRATORY infections , *SCHOOL children , *INFLUENZA , *SCHOOL absenteeism - Abstract
Background: Information on the etiology and age-specific burden of respiratory viral infections among school-aged children remains limited. Though school aged children are often recognized as driving the transmission of influenza as well as other respiratory viruses, little detailed information is available on the distribution of respiratory infections among children of different ages within this group. Factors other than age including gender and time spent in school may also be important in determining risk of infection but have been little studied in this age group.Methods: We conducted a cohort study to determine the etiology of influenza like illness (ILI) among 2519 K-12 students during the 2012-13 influenza season. We obtained nasal swabs from students with ILI-related absences. Generalized linear mixed-effect regressions determined associations of outcomes, including ILI and laboratory-confirmed respiratory virus infection, with school grade and other covariates.Results: Overall, 459 swabs were obtained from 552 ILI-related absences. Respiratory viruses were found in 292 (63.6%) samples. Influenza was found in 189 (41.2%) samples. With influenza B found in 134 (70.9%). Rates of influenza B were significantly higher in grades 1 (10.1, 95% CI 6.8-14.4%), 2 (9.7, 6.6-13.6%), 3 (9.3, 6.3-13.2%), and 4 (9.9, 6.8-13.8%) than in kindergarteners (3.2, 1.5-6.0%). After accounting for grade, sex and self-reported vaccination status, influenza B infection risk was lower among kindergarteners in half-day programs compared to kindergarteners in full-day programs (OR = 0.19; 95% CI 0.08-0.45).Conclusions: ILI and influenza infection is concentrated in younger schoolchildren. Reduced infection by respiratory viruses is associated with a truncated school day for kindergarteners but this finding requires further investigation in other grades and populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2021
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10. Paid Leave and Access to Telework as Work Attendance Determinants during Acute Respiratory Illness, United States, 2017-2018.
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Ahmed, Faruque, Kim, Sara, Nowalk, Mary Patricia, King, Jennifer P., VanWormer, Jeffrey J., Gaglani, Manjusha, Zimmerman, Richard K., Bear, Todd, Jackson, Michael L., Jackson, Lisa A., Martin, Emily, Cheng, Caroline, Flannery, Brendan, Chung, Jessie R., and Uzicanin, Amra
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ACUTE diseases , *TELECOMMUTING , *INFLUENZA , *WORKING hours , *ATTENDANCE - Abstract
We assessed determinants of work attendance during the first 3 days after onset of acute respiratory illness (ARI) among workers 19-64 years of age who had medically attended ARI or influenza during the 2017-2018 influenza season. The total number of days worked included days worked at the usual workplace and days teleworked. Access to paid leave was associated with fewer days worked overall and at the usual workplace during illness. Participants who indicated that employees were discouraged from coming to work with influenza-like symptoms were less likely to attend their usual workplace. Compared with workers without a telework option, those with telework access worked more days during illness overall, but there was no difference in days worked at the usual workplace. Both paid leave benefits and business practices that actively encourage employees to stay home while sick are necessary to reduce the transmission of ARI and influenza in workplaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2020
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11. Health-Related Workplace Absenteeism Among Full-Time Workers - United States, 2017-18 Influenza Season.
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Groenewold, Matthew R., Burrer, Sherry L., Ahmed, Faruque, Uzicanin, Amra, and Luckhaupt, Sara E.
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INFLUENZA , *U.S. states , *SICK leave , *INDUSTRIAL hygiene - Abstract
During an influenza pandemic and during seasonal epidemics, more persons have symptomatic illness without seeking medical care than seek treatment at doctor's offices, clinics, and hospitals (1). Consequently, surveillance based on mortality, health care encounters, and laboratory data does not reflect the full extent of influenza morbidity. CDC uses a mathematical model to estimate the total number of influenza illnesses in the United States (1). In addition, syndromic methods for monitoring illness outside health care settings, such as tracking absenteeism trends in schools and workplaces, are important adjuncts to conventional disease reporting (2). Every month, CDC's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) monitors the prevalence of health-related workplace absenteeism among full-time workers in the United States using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) (3). This report describes the results of workplace absenteeism surveillance analyses conducted during the high-severity 2017-18 influenza season (October 2017-September 2018) (4). Absenteeism increased sharply in November, peaked in January and, at its peak, was significantly higher than the average during the previous five seasons. Persons especially affected included male workers, workers aged 45-64 years, workers living in U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Region 6* and Region 9,† and those working in management, business, and financial; installation, maintenance, and repair; and production and related occupations. Public health authorities and employers might consider results from relevant absenteeism surveillance analyses when developing prevention messages and in pandemic preparedness planning. The most effective ways to prevent influenza transmission in the workplace include vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as staying home when sick, covering coughs and sneezes, washing hands frequently, and routinely cleaning frequently touched surfaces (5). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
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12. Human coronaviruses and other respiratory infections in young adults on a university campus: Prevalence, symptoms, and shedding.
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Davis, Brian M., Foxman, Betsy, Monto, Arnold S., Baric, Ralph S., Martin, Emily T., Uzicanin, Amra, Rainey, Jeanette J., and Aiello, Allison E.
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CORONAVIRUS diseases , *RESPIRATORY diseases , *SOCIAL network analysis , *RESPIRATORY infections , *RHINOVIRUSES - Abstract
Background: The prevalence, symptom course, and shedding in persons infected with the 4 most common human coronaviruses (HCoV)‐229E, HKU1, NL63, and OC43 are poorly described. Objectives: We estimate their prevalence and associated symptoms among college students identified via a social network study design. Patients/Methods: We collected 1‐3 samples (n = 250 specimens) from 176 participants between October 2012 and January 17, 2013: participants with acute respiratory infection (ARI; cough and body aches or chills or fever/feverishness) and their social contacts. Virus was detected using RT‐PCR. Results: 30.4% (76/250) of specimens tested positive for any virus tested, and 4.8% (12/250) were positive for 2 or more viruses. Human coronaviruses (HCoVs [22.0%; 55/250]), rhinovirus (7.6%; 19/250), and influenza A (6.4%; 16/250) were most prevalent. Symptoms changed significantly over time among ARI participants with HCoV: the prevalence of cough and chills decreased over 6 days (P = .04, and P = .01, respectively), while runny nose increased over the same period (P = .02). HCoV‐NL63 was the most frequent virus detected 6 days following symptom onset (8.9%), followed by rhinovirus (6.7%). Conclusions: During a 3‐month period covering a single season, HCoVs were common, even among social contacts without respiratory symptoms; specific symptoms may change over the course of HCoV‐associated illness and were similar to symptoms from influenza and rhinovirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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13. Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: a systematic review.
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Ahmed, Faruque, Zviedrite, Nicole, and Uzicanin, Amra
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INFLUENZA prevention , *VIRUS disease transmission , *INDUSTRIAL hygiene , *WORK environment , *EMPLOYEE health promotion , *SOCIAL distancing - Abstract
Background: Social distancing is one of the community mitigation measures that may be recommended during influenza pandemics. Social distancing can reduce virus transmission by increasing physical distance or reducing frequency of congregation in socially dense community settings, such as schools or workplaces. We conducted a systematic review to assess the evidence that social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces reduces or slows influenza transmission.Methods: Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and EconLit to identify studies published in English from January 1, 2000, through May 3, 2017. Data extraction was done by two reviewers independently. A narrative synthesis was performed.Results: Fifteen studies, representing 12 modeling and three epidemiological, met the eligibility criteria. The epidemiological studies showed that social distancing was associated with a reduction in influenza-like illness and seroconversion to 2009 influenza A (H1N1). However, the overall risk of bias in the epidemiological studies was serious. The modeling studies estimated that workplace social distancing measures alone produced a median reduction of 23% in the cumulative influenza attack rate in the general population. It also delayed and reduced the peak influenza attack rate. The reduction in the cumulative attack rate was more pronounced when workplace social distancing was combined with other nonpharmaceutical or pharmaceutical interventions. However, the effectiveness was estimated to decline with higher basic reproduction number values, delayed triggering of workplace social distancing, or lower compliance.Conclusions: Modeling studies support social distancing in non-healthcare workplaces, but there is a paucity of well-designed epidemiological studies.Systematic Review Registration Number: PROSPERO registration # CRD42017065310. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2018
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14. Unintended costs and consequences of school closures implemented in preparation for Hurricane Isaac in Harrison County School District, Mississippi, August-September 2012.
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Zheteyeva, Yenlik, Rainey, Jeanette J., Gao, Hongjiang, Jacobson, Evin U., Adhikari, Bishwa B., Shi, Jianrong, Mpofu, Jonetta J., Bhavnani, Darlene, Dobbs, Thomas, and Uzicanin, Amra
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SCHOOL closings , *HURRICANE Isaac, 2012 , *PANDEMICS , *SCHOOL enrollment - Abstract
Introduction: School closures, while an effective measure against the spread of disease during a pandemic, may carry unintended social and economic consequences for students and families. We evaluated these costs and consequences following a 4-day school closure in Mississippi’s Harrison County School District (HCSD). Methods: In a survey of all households with students enrolled in HCSD, we collected information on difficulties related to the school closure, including interruption of employment and pay, loss of access to subsidized school meals, and arrangement of alternative childcare. We analyzed this information in the context of certain demographic characteristics of the survey respondents and households, such as race, level of education, and income. We also estimated the average number of lost work days and documented the childcare alternatives chosen by households affected by the school closure. Results: We received 2,229 (28.4%) completed surveys from an estimated 7,851 households eligible to participate. About half (1,082 [48.5%]) of the households experienced at least some difficulty during the closure, primarily in three areas: uncertainty about duration of the closure, lost income, and the effort of arranging alternate childcare. Adults working outside the home, particularly the major wage earner in the household, were more likely to suffer lost income while schools were closed, an effect mitigated by paid leave benefits. Difficulty arranging childcare was reported most frequently by respondents with lower levels of education and households with younger children. Beyond the top three concerns expressed by households in HCSD, the survey also shed light on the issue of food insecurity when subsidized school meals are not available. Reported by 17.9% of households participating in the subsidized school lunch program, difficulty providing meals during the closure was associated with higher numbers of dependent children, selection of “other” as the race of the household respondent, and lower levels of education. Conclusion: To help prevent undue financial hardship in families of school children, public health authorities and school administrators should provide recommendations for childcare alternatives and paid leave or remote work options during prolonged school closures, particularly to households in which all adults work outside of the home. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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15. Estimates of Social Contact in a Middle School Based on Self-Report and Wireless Sensor Data.
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Leecaster, Molly, Toth, Damon J. A., Pettey, Warren B. P., Rainey, Jeanette J., Gao, Hongjiang, Uzicanin, Amra, and Samore, Matthew
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SOCIAL contact , *MIDDLE schools , *WIRELESS sensor networks , *INFECTIOUS disease transmission , *SELF-evaluation , *KNOWLEDGE gap theory - Abstract
Estimates of contact among children, used for infectious disease transmission models and understanding social patterns, historically rely on self-report logs. Recently, wireless sensor technology has enabled objective measurement of proximal contact and comparison of data from the two methods. These are mostly small-scale studies, and knowledge gaps remain in understanding contact and mixing patterns and also in the advantages and disadvantages of data collection methods. We collected contact data from a middle school, with 7th and 8th grades, for one day using self-report contact logs and wireless sensors. The data were linked for students with unique initials, gender, and grade within the school. This paper presents the results of a comparison of two approaches to characterize school contact networks, wireless proximity sensors and self-report logs. Accounting for incomplete capture and lack of participation, we estimate that “sensor-detectable”, proximal contacts longer than 20 seconds during lunch and class-time occurred at 2 fold higher frequency than “self-reportable” talk/touch contacts. Overall, 55% of estimated talk-touch contacts were also sensor-detectable whereas only 15% of estimated sensor-detectable contacts were also talk-touch. Contacts detected by sensors and also in self-report logs had longer mean duration than contacts detected only by sensors (6.3 vs 2.4 minutes). During both lunch and class-time, sensor-detectable contacts demonstrated substantially less gender and grade assortativity than talk-touch contacts. Hallway contacts, which were ascertainable only by proximity sensors, were characterized by extremely high degree and short duration. We conclude that the use of wireless sensors and self-report logs provide complementary insight on in-school mixing patterns and contact frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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16. Social Contact Networks and Mixing among Students in K-12 Schools in Pittsburgh, PA.
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Guclu, Hasan, Read, Jonathan, JrVukotich, Charles J., Galloway, David D., Gao, Hongjiang, Rainey, Jeanette J., Uzicanin, Amra, Zimmer, Shanta M., and Cummings, Derek A. T.
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INFLUENZA transmission , *SOCIAL contact , *COMMUNICABLE diseases , *EPIDEMIOLOGY , *SCHOOL districts - Abstract
Students attending schools play an important role in the transmission of influenza. In this study, we present a social network analysis of contacts among 1,828 students in eight different schools in urban and suburban areas in and near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America, including elementary, elementary-middle, middle, and high schools. We collected social contact information of students who wore wireless sensor devices that regularly recorded other devices if they are within a distance of 3 meters. We analyzed these networks to identify patterns of proximal student interactions in different classes and grades, to describe community structure within the schools, and to assess the impact of the physical environment of schools on proximal contacts. In the elementary and middle schools, we observed a high number of intra-grade and intra-classroom contacts and a relatively low number of inter-grade contacts. However, in high schools, contact networks were well connected and mixed across grades. High modularity of lower grades suggests that assumptions of homogeneous mixing in epidemic models may be inappropriate; whereas lower modularity in high schools suggests that homogenous mixing assumptions may be more acceptable in these settings. The results suggest that interventions targeting subsets of classrooms may work better in elementary schools than high schools. Our work presents quantitative measures of age-specific, school-based contacts that can be used as the basis for constructing models of the transmission of infections in schools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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17. Comparing Observed with Predicted Weekly Influenza-Like Illness Rates during the Winter Holiday Break, United States, 2004-2013.
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Gao, Hongjiang, Wong, Karen K., Zheteyeva, Yenlik, Shi, Jianrong, Uzicanin, Amra, and Rainey, Jeanette J.
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INFLUENZA , *HOLIDAYS , *PUBLIC health surveillance , *SEASONAL variations of diseases , *SOCIAL change , *BOX-Jenkins forecasting - Abstract
In the United States, influenza season typically begins in October or November, peaks in February, and tapers off in April. During the winter holiday break, from the end of December to the beginning of January, changes in social mixing patterns, healthcare-seeking behaviors, and surveillance reporting could affect influenza-like illness (ILI) rates. We compared predicted with observed weekly ILI to examine trends around the winter break period. We examined weekly rates of ILI by region in the United States from influenza season 2003–2004 to 2012–2013. We compared observed and predicted ILI rates from week 44 to week 8 of each influenza season using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Of 1,530 region, week, and year combinations, 64 observed ILI rates were significantly higher than predicted by the model. Of these, 21 occurred during the typical winter holiday break period (weeks 51–52); 12 occurred during influenza season 2012–2013. There were 46 observed ILI rates that were significantly lower than predicted. Of these, 16 occurred after the typical holiday break during week 1, eight of which occurred during season 2012–2013. Of 90 (10 HHS regions x 9 seasons) predictions during the peak week, 78 predicted ILI rates were lower than observed. Out of 73 predictions for the post-peak week, 62 ILI rates were higher than observed. There were 53 out of 73 models that had lower peak and higher post-peak predicted ILI rates than were actually observed. While most regions had ILI rates higher than predicted during winter holiday break and lower than predicted after the break during the 2012–2013 season, overall there was not a consistent relationship between observed and predicted ILI around the winter holiday break during the other influenza seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2015
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18. Modeling the Effect of School Closures in a Pandemic Scenario: Exploring Two Different Contact Matrices.
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Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Gambhir, Manoj, Glasser, John W., Gao, Hongjiang, Washington, Michael L., Uzicanin, Amra, and Meltzer, Martin I.
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INFLUENZA vaccines , *PANDEMICS , *SCHOOL closings , *INFLUENZA treatment , *AMERICAN children , *HEALTH - Abstract
Background. School closures may delay the epidemic peak of the next influenza pandemic, but whether school closure can delay the peak until pandemic vaccine is ready to be deployed is uncertain. Methods. To study the effect of school closures on the timing of epidemic peaks, we built a deterministic susceptibleinfected- recovered model of influenza transmission. We stratified the U.S. population into 4 age groups (0-4, 5-19, 20-64, and ⩾65 years), and used contact matrices to model the average number of potentially disease transmitting, nonphysical contacts. Results. For everyweek of school closure at day 5 of introduction and a 30% clinical attack rate scenario, epidemic peak would be delayed by approximately 5 days. For a 15% clinical attack rate scenario, 1 week closure would delay the peak by 9 days. Closing schools for less than 84 days (12 weeks) would not, however, reduce the estimated total number of cases. Conclusions. Unless vaccine is available early, school closure alone may not be able to delay the peak until vaccine is ready to be deployed. Conversely, if vaccination begins quickly, school closure may be helpful in providing the time to vaccinate school-aged children before the pandemic peaks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2015
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19. Positive Network Assortativity of Influenza Vaccination at a High School: Implications for Outbreak Risk and Herd Immunity.
- Author
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Barclay, Victoria C., Smieszek, Timo, He, Jianping, Cao, Guohong, Rainey, Jeanette J., Gao, Hongjiang, Uzicanin, Amra, and Salathé, Marcel
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HERD immunity , *INFLUENZA vaccines , *DISEASE outbreaks , *INFLUENZA transmission , *COMPUTATIONAL biology - Abstract
Schools are known to play a significant role in the spread of influenza. High vaccination coverage can reduce infectious disease spread within schools and the wider community through vaccine-induced immunity in vaccinated individuals and through the indirect effects afforded by herd immunity. In general, herd immunity is greatest when vaccination coverage is highest, but clusters of unvaccinated individuals can reduce herd immunity. Here, we empirically assess the extent of such clustering by measuring whether vaccinated individuals are randomly distributed or demonstrate positive assortativity across a United States high school contact network. Using computational models based on these empirical measurements, we further assess the impact of assortativity on influenza disease dynamics. We found that the contact network was positively assortative with respect to influenza vaccination: unvaccinated individuals tended to be in contact more often with other unvaccinated individuals than with vaccinated individuals, and these effects were most pronounced when we analyzed contact data collected over multiple days. Of note, unvaccinated males contributed substantially more than unvaccinated females towards the measured positive vaccination assortativity. Influenza simulation models using a positively assortative network resulted in larger average outbreak size, and outbreaks were more likely, compared to an otherwise identical network where vaccinated individuals were not clustered. These findings highlight the importance of understanding and addressing heterogeneities in seasonal influenza vaccine uptake for prevention of large, protracted school-based outbreaks of influenza, in addition to continued efforts to increase overall vaccine coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
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20. Novel Framework for Assessing Epidemiologic Effects of Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics.
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Reed, Carrie, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Finelli, Lyn, Koonin, Lisa M., Beauvais, Denise, Uzicanin, Amra, Plummer, Andrew, Bresee, Joe, Redd, Stephen C., and Jernigan, Daniel B.
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INFLUENZA , *RESPIRATORY infections , *PANDEMICS , *COMMUNICABLE diseases , *VIRUS diseases , *H5N1 Influenza - Abstract
The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
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21. Effects of immunizing school children with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) monovalent vaccine on absenteeism among students and teachers in Maine
- Author
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Graitcer, Samuel B., Dube, Nancy L., Basurto-Davila, Ricardo, Smith, Peter F., Ferdinands, Jill, Thompson, Mark, Uzicanin, Amra, Gargiullo, Paul, Chaves, Sandra S., Robinson, Sara, Sears, Stephen, Tipton, Meredith, Monto, Arnold S., Mills, Dora, and Shay, David K.
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H1N1 influenza , *INFLUENZA vaccines , *SCHOOL absenteeism , *CONFIDENCE intervals , *IMMUNIZATION , *REGRESSION analysis - Abstract
Abstract: The overall and indirect effects of immunizing school children with influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic virus vaccine prior to and during the peak of virus circulation were evaluated on student and teacher school absenteeism. We used records collected from late 2009 through early 2010 from schools in four Maine counties. Mixed logistic regression models were used to estimate the daily association between school-level immunization coverage and absenteeism by level of influenza activity, after adjusting for the proportion of students receiving reduced-cost lunches, student minority status, absences adjacent to weekends and Thanksgiving, rural school location, and the circulation of other respiratory viruses. Increasing student immunization coverage was associated with reduced absenteeism during periods of high influenza activity. For example, as immunization coverage during the peak week of pandemic virus circulation increased from 38% to 69% (the 10th and 90th percentiles of observed coverage, respectively), relative reductions in daily absenteeism among all students, unimmunized students, and teachers were 8.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.5, 9.9), 5.7% (95% CI: 4.2, 7.3), and 8.7% (95% CI: 1.3, 16), respectively. Increased vaccination coverage among school-aged Maine children had modest overall and indirect effects on student and teacher absenteeism, despite vaccination occurring just prior and during peak pandemic virus circulation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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