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The purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of solar activity described by the sunspot number (SSN) on certain terrestrial variables that might impact the Southeastern European climate at different spatio-temporal scales (the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, NAOI, and the Greenland–Balkan Oscillation Index, GBOI—on a large scale; the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, PHDI—on a regional scale; the Danube discharge at the Orsova (lower basin), Q, representative of the Southeastern European climate—on a local scale). The investigations were carried out for the 20th century using the annual and seasonal averages. To find the connections between terrestrial (atmospheric and hydrological) parameters and SSN, the wavelet coherence were used both globally and in the time–frequency domain. The analyses were carried out for the time series and considered simultaneously (in the same year or season), as well as with lags from 1 to 5 years between the analyzed variables. For the annual values, the type of correlation (linear/non-linear) was also tested using elements from information theory. The results clearly revealed non-linear links between the SSN and the terrestrial variables, even for the annual average values. By applying the wavelet transform to test the solar influence on the terrestrial variables, it was shown that the connections depend on both the terrestrial variable, as well as on the considered lags. Since, in the present study, they were analyzed using wavelet coherence, but only the cases in which the coherence was significant for almost the entire analyzed time interval (1901–2000) and the terrestrial variables were in phase or antiphase with the SSN were considered. Relatively few results had a high level of significance. The analysis of seasonal averages revealed significant information, in addition to the analysis of annual averages. Thus, for the climatic indices, the GBOI and NAOI, a significant coherence (>95%) with the solar activity, associated with the 22-year (Hale) solar cycle, was found for the autumn season for lag = 0 and 1 year. The Hale solar cycle, in the case of the PHDI, was present in the annual and summer season averages, more clearly at lag = 0. For the Danube discharge at Orsova, the most significant SSN signature (~95%) was observed at periods of 33 years (Brüuckner cycle) in the autumn season for lags from 0 to 3 years. An analysis of the redundancy–synergy index was also carried out on the combination of the terrestrial variables with the solar variable in order to find the best synergistic combination for estimating the Danube discharge in the lower basin. The results differed depending on the timescale and the solar activity. For the average annual values, the most significant synergistic index was obtained for the combination of the GBOI, PHDI, and SSN, considered 3 years before Q. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to obtain synergistic information and details in the time–frequency domain of the relationships between the Palmer drought indices in the upper and middle Danube River basin and the discharge (Q) in the lower basin. Four indices were considered: the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), Palmer hydrological drought index (PHDI), weighted PDSI (WPLM) and Palmer Z-index (ZIND). These indices were quantified through the first principal component (PC1) analysis of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition, which was obtained from hydro-meteorological parameters at 15 stations located along the Danube River basin. The influences of these indices on the Danube discharge were tested, both simultaneously and with certain lags, via linear and nonlinear methods applying the elements of information theory. Linear connections were generally obtained for synchronous links in the same season, and nonlinear ones for the predictors considered with certain lags (in advance) compared to the discharge predictand. The redundancy–synergy index was also considered to eliminate redundant predictors. Few cases were obtained in which all four predictors could be considered together to establish a significant information base for the discharge evolution. In the fall season, nonstationarity was tested through wavelet analysis applied for the multivariate case, using partial wavelet coherence (pwc). The results differed, depending on the predictor kept in pwc, and on those excluded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to investigate the possible influence of solar/geomagnetic forcing on climate variables, such as the drought index, Danube discharge and large-scale atmospheric indices. Our analysis was performed separately for each season for two time periods, 1901–2000 and 1948–2000. The relationship between terrestrial variables and external indices was established based on the application of (1) information theory elements, namely, synergy, redundancy, total correlation, transfer entropy and (2) wavelet coherence analysis. Bandpass filtering has also been applied. The most significant signature of the solar/geomagnetic forcing in the climate variables was obtained for the data smoothed by the bandpass filter. According to our results, significant solar/geomagnetic forcing appears in the terrestrial variables with a delay of 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aims of this study are to investigate the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation quantified by indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI), the Greenland-Balkan Oscillation index (GBOI) and blocking-type indices on the Lower Danube discharge. We separately analysed each season for the 1948–2000 period. In addition to the statistical linear procedure, we applied methods to quantify nonlinear connections between variables, as mutual information between predictors and predictand, using Shannon's information entropy theory. The nonlinear correlation information between climate indices and discharge is higher than that obtained from the linear measure, providing more insight into real connections. Also, the non-stationarity of the link between variables is highlighted by spectral coherence based on wavelet analysis. For the physical interpretation, we analyse composite maps over the Atlantic-European region. The most significant influence on the discharge of the Lower Danube Basin is given by the GBOI and blocking-type atmospheric circulation over Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the causal links between external factors and the main hydro-climatic variables by using a chain of methods to unravel the complexity of the direct sun–climate link. There is a gap in the literature on the description of a complete chain in addressing the structures of direct causal links of solar activity on terrestrial variables. This is why the present study uses the extensive facilities of the application of information theory in view of recent advances in different fields. Additionally, by other methods (e.g., neural networks) we first tested the existent non-linear links of solar–terrestrial influences on the hydro-climate system. The results related to the solar impact on terrestrial phenomena are promising, which is discriminant in the space-time domain. The implications prove robust for determining the causal measure of climate variables under direct solar impact, which makes it easier to consider solar activity in climate models by appropriate parametrizations. This study found that hydro-climatic variables are sensitive to solar impact only for certain frequencies (periods) and have a coherence with the Solar Flux only for some lags of the Solar Flux (in advance). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]