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We explore the prospects for Twinkle to determine the atmospheric composition of the nearby terrestrial-like planet LTT 1445 Ab, including the possibility of detecting the potential biosignature ammonia (NH3). At a distance of 6.9 pc, this system is the second closest known transiting system and will be observed through transmission spectroscopy with the upcoming Twinkle mission. Although LTT 1445 Ab has been suggested to be a candidate for a Hycean world, constraints on the interior composition based on its mass and radius suggests that the planet lacks a substantial water layer, and thus the proposed Hycean scenario is disfavoured. We use PETITRADTRANS and a Twinkle simulator to simulate transmission spectra for the more likely scenario of a cold Haber world for which NH3 is considered to be a biosignature. We study the detectability under different scenarios: varying hydrogen fraction, concentration of ammonia, and cloud coverage. We find that ammonia can be detected at an ∼3σ level for optimal (non-cloudy) conditions with 25 transits and a volume mixing ration of 4.0 ppm of NH3. We provide examples of retrieval analysis to constrain potential NH3 and H2O in the atmosphere. Our study illustrates the potential of Twinkle to characterize atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present analytic estimates of the fractional uncertainties on the mass, radius, surface gravity, and density of a transiting planet, using only empirical or semi-empirical measurements. We first express these parameters in terms of transit photometry and radial velocity (RV) observables, as well as the stellar radius R⋆, if required. In agreement with previous results, we find that, assuming a circular orbit, the surface gravity of the planet (gp) depends only on empirical transit and RV parameters, namely the planet period P, the transit depth δ, the RV semi-amplitude K⋆, the transit duration T, and the ingress/egress duration τ. However, the planet mass and density depend on all these quantities, plus R⋆. Thus, an inference about the planet mass, radius, and density must rely upon an external constraint such as the stellar radius. For bright stars, stellar radii can now be measured nearly empirically by using measurements of the stellar bolometric flux, the effective temperature, and the distance to the star via its parallax, with the extinction AV being the only free parameter. For any given system, there is a hierarchy of achievable precisions on the planetary parameters, such that the planetary surface gravity is more accurately measured than the density, which in turn is more accurately measured than the mass. We find that surface gravity provides a strong constraint on the core mass fraction of terrestrial planets. This is useful, given that the surface gravity may be one of the best measured properties of a terrestrial planet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]