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Summary Background Allocation of deceased-donor livers to patients with chronic liver failure is improved by prioritising patients by 5-year liver transplantation survival benefit. The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging has been proposed as the standard means to assess for prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. We aimed to create a prediction model linking the BCLC stage of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma to their 5-year liver transplant benefit. Methods A large cohort of consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (n=1328) from the ITA.LI.CA database (n=2951) were judged as potentially eligible for liver transplantation according to the following criteria: absence of macroscopic vascular invasion or metastases, age 70 years or younger, and absence of relevant extra-hepatic comorbidities. To assess the correlation between BCLC staging and non-liver transplantation survival, we did Cox univariate and multivariate analyses including the following covariates: BCLC stage, year of diagnosis, age, sex, cause of cirrhosis, model for end-stage liver disease score, α-fetoprotein concentrations, and treatment. Liver-transplantation survival benefit for patients was calculated, using Monte Carlo simulation analysis, as the patient's 5-year life expectancy with liver transplantation (estimated by the Metroticket model) minus the 5-year life expectancy without liver transplantation according to BCLC stage. Findings 83 (6%) of 1328 patients had BCLC 0 stage disease, 614 (46%) had BCLC A, 500 (38%) had BCLC B–C, and 131 (10%) had BCLC D. In the Cox non-liver transplantation survival multivariate model, hazard ratios associated with increasing BCLC stages were 1·530 (95% CI 1·107–2·116) for BCLC A versus BCLC 0, 1·572 (1·350–1·830) for BCLC B–C versus BCLC A, and 1·470 (1·164–1·856) for BCLC D versus BCLC B–C. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation analysis confirmed the significant effect of BCLC classification on transplant benefit; in the adjusted model, a median 5-year transplant benefit of 11·19 months (IQR 10·73–11·67) for BCLC 0, 13·49 months (11·51–15·57) for BCLC A, 17·36 months (15·06–19·28) for BCLC B–C, and 28·46 months (26·38–30·34) for BCLC D. Interpretation Liver transplantation could result in survival benefit for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and advanced liver cirrhosis (BCLC stage D) and in those with intermediate tumours (BCLC stages B–C), regardless of the nodule number–size criteria (ie, Milan criteria), provided that macroscopic vascular invasion and extra-hepatic disease are absent. Funding None.

Aliment Pharmacol Ther 31, 493–501 Summary Background A randomized controlled trial performed by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) published in 2002 demonstrated that transcatheter arterial chemoembolisation (TACE) is an effective treatment for well-selected patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Aim To access whether this information has modified the use of TACE in clinical practice. Methods From 2042 HCC patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer database, we selected 336 cases diagnosed over two 4-year periods (1999–2002, n = 161 and 2003–2006, n = 175), fulfilling the inclusion criteria of the BCLC study. These groups were compared for TACE application rate, patient characteristics and survival. Results Patients undergoing TACE increased in the 2003–2006 period (from 62% to 73%, P = 0.035), with an increase in of Child-Pugh class A (from 64% to 77%, P = 0.048) and advanced HCC patients (from 54% to 69%, P = 0.041). In the 1999–2002 period, there was no significant difference in survival between TACE-treated and untreated patients, while in the 2003–2006 period, TACE-treated patients survived longer (P

Background A consensus on the most reliable staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still lacking but the most used is a revised Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, adopted by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD). We investigated how many patients are diagnosed in "very early" and "early" stage, follow the AASLD guidelines for treatment and whether their survival depends on treatment. Methods Data were collected in 530 "very early" and "early" HCC patients recruited by a multicentric Italian collaborative group (ITA.LI.CA). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate overall survival and the log rank to test the statistical significance of difference between groups. Cox's multivariate stepwise regression analysis was used to pinpoint independent prognostic factors and the adjusted relative risks (hazard ratios) were calculated as well. A statistical analysis based on the chi-square test was used to identify significant differences in clinical or pathological features between patients. A P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results "Very early" HCC were 3%; Cox multivariate analysis did not identify variables independently associated with survival. The patients following AASLD recommendations (20%) did not show longer survival. In "early" HCC patients (25%), treatment significantly modulated survival (p = 0.0001); the 28% patients treated according to the AASLD criteria survived longer (p = 0,004). The Cox analysis however identified only age, gender, number of lesions and Child class as independent predictors of survival. Conclusion patients with very early" HCC were very few in this analysis. In most instances they were not treated with the treatment suggested as the most appropriate by the AASLD guidelines and the type of treatment had no impact on survival, even though the number of patients was relatively low and part of the patients were diagnosed before the introduction of the guidelines: this analysis, therefore, might not be considered as conclusive and should be validated. The "early" stage group involved more patients, rarely treated according to the guidelines, both overall and also in those diagnosed after their publication; the survival was in part predicted by the type of treatment, with better results in those treated according to AASLD indications.