Search

This paper tests the migration transition hypothesis that emigration flows first increase and later decrease with a country’s economic development. Using a migration version of the gravity model, this hypothesis is tested on a global panel data set comprising 180 origin and destination countries and a 50-year timeframe (1970-2020). This is the most extensive panel data set used so far to test the migration transition hypothesis. The results confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between development and emigration within a cross-country panel setting. Nevertheless, the migration hump cannot be interpreted as a causal relationship: for a given low-income country, an increase in economic development is not found to lead to higher emigration. For a subsample of 44 countries that have transitioned from low-income to middle-income status, emigration has rather declined with economic development. The migration transition hypothesis is therefore unfounded. Instead, the migration hump appears to be driven by an underlying cross-sectional pattern that cannot be fully controlled: middle-income countries tend to exhibit higher emigration rates than low- or high-income countries. The findings of this paper have important policy implications: development programs can simultaneously promote economic development and reduce emigration.

Проведене дослідження обумовлене актуальністю вивчення процесів трудової міграції, оскільки саме зазначений процес є вагомим фактором впливу на рівень соціального та економічного розвитку держави. Без належного рівня удосконалення економічної, податкової та соціальної політики наслідки міграційних процесів можуть негативно відобразитись на рівні розвитку країни. Особливі риси міграційного процесу, а також чинники пов’язані з ним потребують постійного детального вивчення та контролю. У статті запропоновано новий підхід до теоретичного обґрунтування та вирішення питань трудової міграції, що ґрунтується на встановленні взаємозв'язку між рівнем податкового навантаження країни, а саме таких податків, як: податок на дохід населення та єдиний соціальний внесок та кількістю її трудових мігрантів. Для реалізації дослідження обрано дві групи країн, що є найбільше і найменше привабливими для трудової міграції українців. Результати зазначеної взаємозалежності проілюстровані у вигляді математичної моделі, яка зображена у формі регресії та коефіцієнту апроксимації для прогнозування чисельності мігрантів від показника податкового навантаження. Застосування запропонованої у статті моделі обумовлене необхідністю пошуку оптимальних шляхів зменшення негативного впливу процесів міжнародної трудової міграції на рівень економічного та соціального розвитку країни. У статті також визначено перелік залежних від іммігрантів секторів та приділено увагу наслідкам функціонування процесу міграції, а саме її позитивному впливу. Авторами виокремлено перелік намірів, що спонукають громадян до праці за межами Батьківщини, а також встановлено основні фактори, що мають суттєвий вплив на характер трудової міграції. Проведене дослідження дозволило авторам зробити припущення про активний характер міграційного руху населення в Україні, а також зростання масштабів зовнішньої трудової міграції та формування потоків вимушеної міграції, що є характерними рисами п’ятої хвилі еміграції. Матеріал статті охоплює і перелік основних проблем щодо регулювання міграції, які уповільнюють процес співробітництва між Україною та країнами ЄС та мають негативні соціально-економічні наслідки. A study in the research paper due the relevance of learning labor migration processes, since this process is a significant factor influencing the level of social and economic development of the state. Without an adequate level of improvement in economic, tax and social policies, the effects of migration can have a negative impact on the level of development of the country. The specific features of the migration process, as well as the factors associated with it, require constant detailed study and control. The article proposes a new approach to the theoretical justification and solution of labor migration issues, based on establishing the relationship between the levels of thetax burden of the country, namely such taxes as: personal income tax and a single social contribution, and the number of its labor migrants. To implement the research results, two groups of countries are identified, -the most and least attractive for labor migration of Ukraine. The conclusions of this mutuality areillustrated in the form of a mathematical model, which is depicted in the form of a regression and an approximation coefficient for predicting the number of migrants of the tax burden indicator. The application of the model that proposed in the article is due to the need to find optimal ways to reduce the negative impact of the international labor migrationprocesses on the economic and social country development level. The article also identifies a list of immigrant-dependent sectors and focuses on the effects of the migration process, namely its positive impact. The authors outline the list of intentions that encourage citizens to work outside their homeland, as well as identify the main factors that have a significant impact on the nature of labor migration. The conducted research allowed the authors to make assumptions about the active nature of the migration movement of the population in Ukraine, as well as the increase in the scope of external labor migration and the formation of forced migration flows, which are characteristic features of the fifth wave of emigration. The article also covers a list of major problems in regulating migration, which slow down the process of cooperation between Ukraine and EU countries and have negative socio-economic consequences.

The portability of social benefits is gaining importance given the increasing share of individuals working at least part of their life outside their home country. Bilateral social security agreements (BSSAs) are considered a crucial approach to establishing portability, but the functionality and effectiveness of these agreements have not yet been investigated; thus, important guidance for policy makers in migrant-sending and migrant-receiving countries is missing. To shed light on how BSSAs work in practice, this document is part of a series providing information and lessons from studies of portability in four diverse but comparable migration corridors: Austria-Turkey, Germany-Turkey, Belgium-Morocco, and France-Morocco. A summary policy paper draws broader conclusions and offers overarching policy recommendations. This report looks specifically into the working of the Belgium-Morocco corridor. Findings suggest that the BSSA is broadly working well, with no main substantive issues in the area of pension portability, except for the non-portability of the noncontributory top-up pension and issues with widows’ pensions in case of divorce and repudiation, and in health care, the pending introduction of portable health care for retirees with single pensions from the other country. Process issues around information provision in Morocco and automation of information exchange are recognized.

This study examines the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year, despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large, sustained benefits to the migrants’ immediate family, who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast, the study finds no measureable impact on extended family.

Inclusive growth (IG) analysis involves analyzing the available data in a country to determine the best course of action for accelerating growth and or improving the distribution of the opportunities and benefits from the growth process. In economies in which international migration is a significant trend, that determination may be especially challenging. The international migration phenomenon can contribute to (or detract from) growth and its distribution through myriad number of complex and sometimes divergent channels, and these effects can change substantially over time. The ability to analyze these impacts, however, is often significantly handicapped by a lack of appropriate data. Moreover, because the migration decision is inherently a private decision made by households in the best interest of their welfare, determining the policy conclusions based on the results of inclusive growth analysis is often unclear. Governments are rightfully wary of interfering with the migration process. This paper examines the issue of international migration in inclusive growth. The aim is to provide the practitioners of inclusive growth diagnostics a useful framework for assessing the nature of the international migration phenomenon, and to highlight the key tools utilized in evaluating its current and potential impact on shared growth.

There is a growing concern among policy makers and the international development community about the rapid concentration of migrants in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar (UB) and its social, economic, and environmental consequences (UNDP, 2003). These concerns call for a good understanding of the nature of migration in Mongolia and its impacts on the life of migrants. Using the 2007-08 Household Economic and Social Survey of Mongolia, this paper aims to: (a) document the characteristics of recent internal migration in Mongolia; and (b) assess the livelihoods of rural-to-urban migrants in comparison to those staying in rural areas as well as to local urban residents. The analysis in this paper suggests that rural out-migration is negatively correlated with the chance of falling into poverty. For those who did not migrate from rural areas, their poverty incidence was much higher, and their consumption level much lower, than that of rural-to-urban migrants. However, not all urban destinations are equal: there is a large discrepancy in livelihoods between those moving to aimag centers versus those moving the UB. The poverty incidence of rural migrant families moving into aimag centers was 33 percent, whereas 24 percent for those migrant families moving into UB.