Search

We tackle the problem of coupling a spatiotemporal model for simulating the spread and control of an invasive alien species with data coming from image processing and expert knowledge. In this study, we implement a spatially explicit optimal control model based on a reaction–diffusion equation which includes an Holling II type functional response term for modeling the density control rate. The model takes into account the budget constraint related to the control program and searches for the optimal effort allocation for the minimization of the invasive alien species density. Remote sensing and expert knowledge have been assimilated in the model to estimate the initial species distribution and its habitat suitability, empirically extracted by a land cover map of the study area. The approach has been applied to the plant species Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle within the Alta Murgia National Park. This area is one of the Natura 2000 sites under the study of the ongoing National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) funded by the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), and pilot site of the finished H2020 project ECOPOTENTIAL, which aimed at the integration of modeling tools and Earth Observations for a sustainable management of protected areas. Both the initial density map and the land cover map have been generated by using very high resolution satellite images and validated by means of ground truth data provided by the EU Life Alta Murgia Project (LIFE12 BIO/IT/000213), a project aimed at the eradication of A. altissima in the Alta Murgia National Park. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Resource allocation strategies aim to remove invasive species under budget constraint. • A parabolic PDE models the spread accounting for the role of advection (e.g. wind). • An optimal control model simulates the best spatiotemporal strategy for the removal. • An efficient numerical procedure predicts species spread under the control action. • Numerical schemes are based on Finite Element formulation and exponential integrators. Controlling and planning the removal of invasive species are topics of outmost importance in management of natural resources because of the severe ecological damages and economic losses caused by non-native alien species. Optimal management strategies often rely on coupling population dynamics models with optimization procedures to achieve an effective allocation of limited resources for removing invasive species from hosting ecosystems. We analyse a parabolic optimal control model to simulate the best spatiotemporal strategy for the removal of the species when a budget constraint is applied. The model also predicts the species spread under the control action. We improve the capability of the model to reproduce realistic scenarios by introducing an advection term in the state equation. That allows to model the action of external forces, like currents or winds, which might bias dispersal in certain directions. The analytical properties of the model are discussed under suitable boundary conditions. As a further original contribution, we introduce a novel numerical procedure for approximating the solution reducing the computational costs in view of its implementation as a support decision tool. Then we test the approach by simulating the spread and the control of a hypothetical invasive plant in the territory of the Italian Sardinia island. To reproduce the anisotropy of the diffusion we include the effect of the altitude in the habitat suitability of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]