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Land use change is the main cause of carbon stock change in terrestrial ecosystems. Accurate assessment of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystem is of great significance to strengthen ecosystem protection and realize the goal of double carbon. This paper analyzed the land use pattern under three scenarios (inertial development, cropland protection and ecological protection) from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 with the help of the InVEST model and the PLUS model, and evaluated the characteristics of the changes in carbon stock at each stage. The results show that the carbon stocks in the nine provinces (regions) of the Yellow River Basin in 2000, 2010 and 2020 are 19 324.40×106 t, 19 178.39×106 t and 19 303.26×106 t respectively, with an overall U-shaped distribution, mainly because of the large reduction of ecological land mainly in grassland from 2000 to 2010. The carbon stock in the three scenarios of inertial development, cropland protection and ecological protection in 2030 is 19 522.68×106 t, 19 630.36×106 t and 19 673.35×106 t respectively, and all of them showing an increasing trend. Among them, the ecological protection scenario and the cropland protection scenario have higher carbon stock increment than the inertia development scenario. The land type changes that significantly enhance carbon stock are mainly the conversion from cropland land to forest land and the conversion from grassland to forest land. The study shows that in the context of arable land protection and ecological protection, ecological fallowing, afforestation, unused land development and reclamation of construction land to increase greening are effective in increasing the regional carbon stock and improving the regional carbon sink capacity, which provides a scientific basis for the decision-making on the management of land use in the Yellow River Basin and the optimization of its structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the evolution of land use and its impact on carbon storage is of significant importance for mitigating regional climate change and promoting green low-carbon development. Ningwu County is located in the source region of the Fenhe and Sanggan River, and its ecological status significantly influences the carbon storage (CS) of the watershed ecosystem. In this study, the PLUS-InVEST model was employed to analyze the land use evolution from 1990 to 2020 in Ningwu County, Shanxi Province, as well as their impacts on CS. Additionally, the study simulated and predicted land use changes in Ningwu County by 2040 under four scenarios: natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS), cultivated land protection (CLPS), and urban development (UDS), while estimating the corresponding changes in ecosystem CS. Furthermore, the study utilized optimal parameters-based geographical detector to explore the mechanisms underlying the spatial differentiation of CS. The results indicated that the areas of forest land and construction land in the study area consistently increased from 1990 to 2020, whereas the area of cultivated land continuously declined, with grassland, water bodies, and unused land exhibiting a fluctuating increasing trend. The spatial distribution of CS was highest in the northwest, second highest in the southeast, and lowest in the middle region. Over these 3 decades, CS had shown a continuous increase. It is projected that by 2040, the areas of forest and grassland will experience the most significant increase under the EPS; cultivated land only increase under the CLPS; while construction land display the greatest increase under the UDS. Compared to 2020, these four scenarios for 2040 indicate an increase in regional CS, with the EPS showing the largest increment. The primary factors influencing the spatial differentiation of CS in Ningwu County are human activities, followed by topography and climate change; the interactions among these factors exhibit a reinforcing relationship, with the interaction between the distance from construction land and slope having the most substantial impact on the spatial differentiation of CS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the escalating issue of global climate change, it is imperative to comprehend and quantify the effects of land use change on carbon storage (CS), which pertains not only to the preservation of ecosystem functions but also directly influences the equilibrium and stability of the global carbon cycle. This study examines the correlation between CS and land use change, forecasts the future spatial distribution of CS, and offers a reference for the rational planning of watershed space. Focusing on the Bosten Lake Basin of Xinjiang in China, employing the land use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to forecast the spatial distribution of carbon stocks across three developmental scenarios, while also examining the shift in the center of gravity of CS and the autocorrelation of their spatial distribution. The findings derived from the study are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the predominant land use type in the Bosten Lake Basin was grassland, while there was an upward trend in the areas of cropland, forest land, built-up land, and wetland, alongside a downward trend in the areas of grassland, water, and unused land. (2) In the long term, the regional CS exhibits an upward trend, with the most significant increase anticipated in the EPS scenario. Grassland constitutes the most extensive carbon reservoir in the Bosten Lake Basin, while wetlands exhibit the highest carbon sequestration potential. (3) The alteration in the center of gravity of CS is associated with the expansion or reduction of the major regional carbon reservoirs and types characterized by significant carbon sequestration potential. (4) In the long term, the spatial correlation of CS in the Bosten Lake Basin exhibits a consistent upward trend, with the most pronounced spatial correlation observed under EPS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of urbanization leads to the rapid expansion of construction land and brings a series of ecological and environmental problems. The ecological network, as a linear landscape element, is of great significance to improve the quality of the regional ecological environment. In this study, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and the model of Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) were used to construct the ecological corridors in the central city of Fuzhou, and the land use pattern under the constraints of the ecological network was simulated and quantified by the patch-level land use simulation (PLUS) tool with the results of the identification of ecological corridors. Meanwhile, with the help of InVEST habitat quality model, the regional habitat quality under different development scenarios was compared. The results show that (1) 19 ecological sources and 35 ecological corridors were identified; (2) under the constraints of ecological corridors, the area of forested land in the study area in 2027 was increased by 1.57% and the area of built-up land was reduced by 0.55% compared with that in 2022; (3) and under the constraints of ecological corridors, the mean value of habitat quality in Fuzhou City improved by 0.0055 and 0.0254 compared with 2022 and 2027 natural evolution scenarios, respectively. The study provides decision-making assistance for the construction of ecological corridors from the perspective of land use planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Given the escalating issue of global climate change, it is imperative to comprehend and quantify the effects of land use change on carbon storage (CS), which pertains not only to the preservation of ecosystem functions but also directly influences the equilibrium and stability of the global carbon cycle. This study examines the correlation between CS and land use change, forecasts the future spatial distribution of CS, and offers a reference for the rational planning of watershed space. Focusing on the Bosten Lake Basin of Xinjiang in China, employing the land use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to forecast the spatial distribution of carbon stocks across three developmental scenarios, while also examining the shift in the center of gravity of CS and the autocorrelation of their spatial distribution. The findings derived from the study are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the predominant land use type in the Bosten Lake Basin was grassland, while there was an upward trend in the areas of cropland, forest land, built-up land, and wetland, alongside a downward trend in the areas of grassland, water, and unused land. (2) In the long term, the regional CS exhibits an upward trend, with the most significant increase anticipated in the EPS scenario. Grassland constitutes the most extensive carbon reservoir in the Bosten Lake Basin, while wetlands exhibit the highest carbon sequestration potential. (3) The alteration in the center of gravity of CS is associated with the expansion or reduction of the major regional carbon reservoirs and types characterized by significant carbon sequestration potential. (4) In the long term, the spatial correlation of CS in the Bosten Lake Basin exhibits a consistent upward trend, with the most pronounced spatial correlation observed under EPS.

[Objective] This paper aims to deepen the understanding of the carbon cycle by analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration and its response to land use/land cover (LULC) change, so as to effective guidance for carbon management and ecological restoration strategies. [Methods] InVEST and PLUS models were used to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 1990 to 2030. By combining data on LULC change, the relationship between carbon storage and LULC change was quantitatively analyzed. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, the land types of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration were mainly forestland, cropland, and grassland, and forestland, cropland, and construction land showed an increasing trend, among which construction land increased the largest. (2) Carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration presented a change characteristics of “first increase and then decrease, gradually stabilize”, reaching a maximum value of 1.46×109 t in 2000, and decreasing to 1.45×109 t in 2020, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of “higher in the west, lower in the east”. (3) The carbon storage predictions under different future development scenarios indicated that, compared with 2020, all four scenarios showed a declining trend in carbon storage by 2030, among which the ecological development scenario experienced the least decline, with a reduction of 0.43×107 t compared with 2020, while the cropland development scenario exhibited the most significant decline, with a reduction of 1.05×107 t compared with 2020. (4) The conversion between cultivated land and forestland was the primary factor affecting carbon storage. Specifically, the transformation of cultivated land into forests plays a crucial role in increasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration. Forest expansion significantly enhanced regional carbon storage, while a reduction in grassland negatively impacted carbon storage. [Conclusion] The conversion of forestland and cultivated land has a significant impact on increasing or decreasing carbon storage in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

Abstract Land-use change is the main driver of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, domestic and international studies mainly focus on the impact of carbon storage changes on climate, while studies on the impact of land-use changes on carbon storage in complex terrestrial ecosystems are few. The Jialing River Basin (JRB), with a total area of ~ 160,000 km2, diverse topography, and elevation differences exceeding 5 km, is an ideal case for understanding the complex interactions between land-use change and carbon storage dynamics. Taking the JRB as our study area, we analyzed land-use changes from 2000 to 2020. Subsequently, we simulated land-use patterns for business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological priority (EP) scenarios in 2035 using the PLUS model. Additionally, we assessed carbon storage using the InVEST model. This approach helps us to accurately understand the carbon change processes in regional complex terrestrial ecosystems and to formulate scientifically informed land-use policies. The results revealed the following: (1) Cropland was the most dominant land-use type (LUT) in the region, and it was the only LUT experiencing net reduction, with 92.22% of newly designated construction land originating from cropland. (2) In the JRB, total carbon storage steadily decreased after 2005, with significant spatial heterogeneity. This pattern was marked by higher carbon storage levels in the north and lower levels in the south, with a distinct demarcation line. The conversion of cropland to construction land is the main factor driving the reduction in carbon storage. (3) Compared with the BAU and EP scenarios, the CP scenario demonstrated a smaller reduction in cropland area, a smaller addition to construction land area, and a lower depletion in the JRB total carbon storage from 2020 to 2035. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the PLUS and InVEST models in analyzing complex ecosystems and offers data support for quantitatively assessing regional ecosystem services. Strict adherence to the cropland replenishment task mandated by the Chinese government is crucial to increase cropland areas in the JRB and consequently enhance the carbon sequestration capacity of its ecosystem. Such efforts are vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of the JRB, particularly in the pursuit of the “dual-carbon” objective.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can either enhance the areal carbon reserve capacity or exacerbate carbon emission issues, thereby significantly influencing global climate change. Comprehending the impact of LUCC on regional carbon reserve variation holds great significance for regional ecosystem preservation and socioeconomic sustainable development. This study focuses on Liaoning Province, leveraging land use remote sensing data from three periods from 2000 to 2020, natural environmental data and socioeconomic data in conjunction with the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. It analyzes the interactive relationship between LUCC and carbon reserves in Liaoning Province between 2000 and 2020 and forecasts the trajectory of carbon reserve changes in Liaoning Province under various scenarios: business as usual, urban development, cropland protection, and ecological protection, all based on LUCC simulations. The findings indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, Liaoning Province experienced significant LUCC characterized primarily by the transformation of farmland to built-up land. Carbon reserves initially declined and later increased due to LUCC changes, resulting in a cumulative increase of 30.52 Tg C. The spatial distribution of carbon reserves was influenced by LUCC, displaying a pattern of spatial aggregation, with higher values in the east and lower values in the west. (2) Across the four simulation scenarios, the spatial pattern of carbon reserves in Liaoning Province continued to exhibit the characteristic spatial aggregation of higher values in the east and lower values in the west. Under the urban development scenario, carbon reserves decreased by 34.56 Tg C tons, representing a 2.45% decrease compared to 2020. Conversely, under the business-as-usual, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection scenarios, carbon reserves displayed a growing tendency, reaching 1449.35 Tg C, 1450.39 Tg C, and 1471.80 Tg C, respectively, with changes of 0.09%, 0.16% and 1.63% compared to 2020. The substantial increase in carbon reserves under the ecological protection scenario primarily stemmed from the significant expansion of woodland and other ecological land areas. In light of these findings, Liaoning Province may consider laying down and strictly executing spatial policies for ecological protection in future land projecting. The PLUS model and InVEST model can help curb the uncontrolled expansion of built-up land, facilitate the increment of ecological land areas, and with effect augment carbon reserves, thereby ensuring the achievement of the "double carbon" target of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the impact of large-scale human activities on carbon storage through land use changes is of growing interest in terrestrial ecosystem assessments. The Huaihe River Basin, a vital Chinese grain production area, has undergone marked land use changes amid socio-economic acceleration. Evaluating the impacts of land use change on carbon storage and future carbon sequestration is imperative for regional ecosystem sustainability and Chinese food security, simultaneously, furnishing data support to regional land use planning and decision-making processes. Nonetheless, the mechanisms linking land use changes to carbon storage and the future carbon reservoir responses remain unclear. We utilized a multi-source dataset and representative scenarios, integrating PLUS, InVEST models, and Geodetector to assess land use change impacts on carbon storage in the Huaihe River Basin (2000–2030). The data indicates the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land decreased by 28,344.69 km2, construction land increased by 26,914.56 km2, and other land types changed little. (2) Land use change resulted a carbon loss of 1.17 × 108 t, primarily due to the expansion of construction land. (3) All four simulation scenarios exhibited diminished carbon storage relative to 2020, with the economic development scenario recording the lowest at 4.98 × 109 t and the ecological protection scenario the highest at 5.06 × 109 t. (4) Elevation predominantly drives carbon storage changes, with its interaction with NPP having the greatest impact. The factors synergistically enhance their explanatory power. The research provides a scientific basis for strategies aimed at augmenting regional carbon sequestration and refining low-carbon land management, safeguarding ecosystem stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Hubei Minzu University (Natural Science Edition) is the property of Journal of Hubei Minzu University (Natural Sciences Edition) Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Water conservation is crucial for sustainable ecosystem development in loess gully regions. The redlines of permanent basic farmland protection and ecological protection are key land use control zones in China, yet their impact on water conservation is understudied. The study focuses on Yan'an and constructs three scenarios: natural development (NDS), farmland protection (FPS), and ecological protection (EPS). Then, land use simulation for the three scenarios in 2025, 2030, and 2035 is carried out using the patch-generating land use simulation model. Finally, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs model is combined to calculate water conservation. The findings suggest the following: (1) From the temporal perspective, the water conservation of the three scenarios exhibits an incremental trend by period from 2025 to 2035, with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.65‰ for the NDS, 0.60‰ for the FPS, and 0.64‰ for the EPS. (2) From the scenario perspective, from 2025 to 2035, the annual water conservation under the FPS is 0.35‰ less than that under the NDS, while the impact of the EPS is weak at only ±0.1‰. (3) Across all scenarios, the average water conservation depth of grassland surpasses that of forestland. This study provides scientific evidence to help optimize China's land space governance policy as well as methodological and theoretical support for related studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water yield (WY) service is the cornerstone of ecosystem functionality. Predicting and assessing the impact of land use/land cover (LULC) changes on WY is imperative for a nation's food security, regional economic development, and ecological environmental protection. This study aimed to evaluate the water yield (WY) service in Henan Province, China, using high-resolution (30 m) remote sensing land use monitoring data from four study years: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It also utilized the PLUS model to predict the characteristics of LULC evolution and the future trends of WY service under four different development scenarios (for 2030 and 2050). The study's results indicated the following: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the Henan Province's WY first increased and then decreased, ranging from 398.56 × 108 m3 to 482.95 × 108 m3. The southern and southeastern parts of Henan Province were high-value WY areas, while most of its other regions were deemed low-value WY areas. (2) The different land use types were ranked in terms of their WY capacity, from strongest to weakest, as follows: unused land, cultivated land, grassland, construction land, woodland, and water. (3) The four abovementioned scenarios were ranked, from highest to lowest, based on the Henan's total WY (in 2050) in each of them: high-quality development scenario (HDS), business-as-usual scenario (BAU), cultivated land protection scenario (CPS), and ecological protection scenario (ES). This study contributes to the advancement of ecosystem services research. Its results can provide scientific support for water resource management, sustainable regional development, and comprehensive land-use planning in Henan Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interrelationships between land use, climate change, and regional water yield is critical for effective water resource management and ecosystem protection. However, comprehensive insights into how water yield evolves under different land use scenarios and climate change remain elusive. This study employs the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models, Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and Geodetector within a unified framework to evaluate the dynamics of land use, water yield, and their relationships with various factors (meteorological, social, economic, etc.). To forecast the land use/cover change (LUCC) pattern of the Yellow River Basin by 2030, three scenarios were considered: economic development priority (Scenario 1), ecological development priority (Scenario 2), and cropland development priority (Scenario 3). Climate change scenarios were constructed using CMIP6 data, representing low-stress (SSP119), medium-stress (SSP245), and high-stress (SSP585) conditions. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, cropland was predominant in the Yellow River Basin, Henan Province, with significant land conversion to impervious land (construction land) and forest land; (2) water yield changes during this period were primarily influenced by meteorological factors, with land use changes having negligible impact; (3) by 2030, the water yield of Scenario 1 is highest among different land use scenarios, marginally surpassing Scenario 2 by 1.60 × 108 m3; (4) climate scenarios reveal significant disparities, with SSP126 yielding 54.95 × 108 m3 higher water yield than SSP245, driven predominantly by precipitation; (5) Geodetector analysis identifies precipitation as the most influential single factor, with significant interactions among meteorological and socio-economic factors. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers in formulating land use and water resource management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Soil & Water Conservation (1009-2242) is the property of Institute of Soil & Water Conservation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Water yield is a critical component of hydrological ecosystem services, influenced by both natural environments and human activities. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are particularly pivotal in causing water yield variations at the basin level, particularly for the ecologically fragile Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) in southern Jiangxi province, China. Over the last 33 years, the GRB has undergone substantial LULC changes that have significantly affected its water yield. Initially, this study assessed water yield from 1990 to 2022 using the InVEST model, then predicted future LULC scenarios using the PLUS model, including natural development (ND), cropland protection (CP), ecological protection (EP), and urban development (UD). The Geodetector model was then employed to analyze the influence of various factors on water yield changes. Key findings include the following: (1) Significant landscape changes were observed, including increases in impervious surfaces, cropland, and water areas, accompanied by substantial reductions in forest and other natural lands. The most pronounced decline occurred in forested regions. (2) The total water yield decreased by 0.44 × 1010 m3 over the study period, exhibiting fluctuations until 2016 and stabilizing afterward. Water yield was generally higher in the northeast and lower in the southwest, primarily influenced by actual evapotranspiration, LULC, and precipitation. (3) The impact of LULC changes on water yield varied by scenario, with the scenarios ranked from most to least impactful as follows: UD, ND, CP, EP. This variation is mainly due to the different rates of evapotranspiration and infiltration associated with land cover. These insights are crucial for guiding policymakers in developing effective LULC strategies that promote ecological restoration and sustainable water management in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment and prediction analyses of the ecological environmental quality of river basins are pivotal to realize ecological protection and high-quality coordinated development. Methods: The PLUS and InVEST models were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land-use in the Fen River Basin and simulate the spatial pattern of land-use under natural development (ND), ecological protection (EC), and economic development (ED) scenarios in 2030, as well as evaluate habitat quality (HQ) and its spatiotemporal variation characteristics from 2000 to 2030. From 2000 to 2020, the Fen River Basin consisted primarily of cultivated land, followed by forests, and then unused land. Habitat quality in the Fen River Basin showed a downward trend from 2000 to 2020. Between 2010 and 2020, the rate of decline decreased, and by 2030, the HQ in the EC scenario exhibited improvement compared to 2020. However, there was a reduction in HQ in the natural development and economic development scenarios and there was obvious heterogeneity in spatial distribution, showing the characteristics of "low middle and high edge". The cultivated land was converted into forests, construction land, and grasslands, and the conversion of construction land and forests to cultivated land dominated the changes in HQ in the Fen River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, the reorganization of rural land-use space exhibits a dynamic process of expansion and shrinkage. Taking the Wuhan Metropolitan Area as an example, this study used the InVEST model to quantitatively assess changes in rural built-up land between 1995 and 2020 and its impact on regional carbon storage. Combined with the PLUS model, further simulations were carried out to predict the heterogeneous mechanisms of shrinkage and expansion of rural habitable space under three scenarios in 2030. The results indicate that the area of rural built-up land in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area showed an overall increasing trend, with shrinkage mainly concentrated in the Wuhan-Ezhou border, Tianmen, and southern Xiantao, while expansion displayed a decentralized point distribution. The PLUS model predicts that, in the scenario of rural built-up land expansion, a significant amount of cropland is encroached upon. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the impact of rural habitat changes on the carbon cycle. Future land management and planning should pay more attention to maintaining ecosystem services and considering the environmental effects of changes in rural built-up land layout. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water conservation is an important ecosystem service, which is crucial to the fragile ecological environment and serious soil erosion in Northwest China. However, water conservation has been affected by climate change and human disturbance, and its future spatial and temporal changes are still unclear. This study employed the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade‐offs (InVEST) model to assess the water conservation capacity of Northwest China between 1990 and 2020. Subsequently, the Patch‐generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP‐CMIP6) were integrated to examine changes in water conservation from 2030 to 2050. The water conservation quantity in Northwest China had a fluctuating growth tendency between 1990 and 2020, with an average of 816.61 × 108 m3. The water conservation capacity's regional distribution pattern shows a steady increase from northwest to southeast. Northwest China's forest land had the greatest water conservation capacity between 1990 and 2020, at 66 mm, while the water land had the lowest, at 1.46 mm. The water conservation capacity in the 2030–2050 future scenario is less than that in 2020 when the regional distribution pattern is comparable to 2020. Natural development scenario (ND) in 2030 has the lowest water conservation capacity (13.41 mm) under ssp1‐2.6 precipitation scenario, whereas in 2050, the highest water conservation capacity (17.47 mm) is found in same scenario. The ecological protection scenario (EP) has the greatest water retention capacity (18.15 mm in 2040) and the lowest (14.38 mm in 2050) in the ssp5‐8.5 scenario. Our research can help restore and rebuild Northwest China's natural ecosystem and offer a theoretical foundation for the protection of ecological environment and the rational utilization of water resources in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the background of rapid urbanization, strengthening the research on the response and dynamic mechanism of ecosystem services to land use is conducive to the optimization of land space and ecological restoration and governance in megacities. Using Hefei City as a case study, we examined specific ecosystem services and analyzed how water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation changed over time from 2000 to 2020. We utilized spatial information technology and the InVEST model to assess these changes. Additionally, we developed a comprehensive ecological service index (CES) and used Geodetector and regression models to investigate how ecosystem services responded to land use. In addition, we utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030. This was performed under four different scenarios: natural development (ND), urban development (UD), cultivated land protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP). Furthermore, we assessed the effects of these land-use changes on ecosystem service functions by integrating the PLUS results with InVEST. The findings indicate the following: (1) between 2000 and 2020, farmland consistently remained the dominant land-use type in Hefei City while construction land experienced significant growth. Land-use conversion was prevalent during this period, and each ecological indicator exhibited noticeable geographic variation; (2) during the past 20 years, the comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) exhibited clear spatial clustering patterns. The different types of land use showed significant quantitative relationships with CES. Specifically, cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water area had positive correlations, while construction land had a negative correlation. Geodetector analysis revealed that the proportion of ecological land use had the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of CES, followed by population density; (3) according to the PLUS simulation, the UD scenario results in a significant conversion of cultivated land and grassland into construction land, leading to the greatest decrease in CES. In the ND scenario, the areas with decreasing CES are mostly areas that have been converted from other land types to construction land. In contrast, the EP scenario shows an increase in forest land and grassland, which promotes the enhancement of multiple ecosystem service functions simultaneously. This indicates that the EP scenario is the most favorable for sustainable land-use development. The study investigates the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services and evaluates the sustainability of regional land use. The findings have both theoretical and practical significance for effectively managing land use and regulating ecological functions in large cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Arid Zone Research / Ganhanqu Yanjiu is the property of Arid Zone Research Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In recent years, increasing urbanization has profoundly impacted the quality of regional habitats, presenting a severe risk to the ability of a region to develop in a high-quality manner. Therefore, the scientific assessment of the features of habitat quality (HQ) evolution over time and space and the prediction of future trends in changes in the HQ are of great significance for the formulation of effective ecological protection policies. Based on five periods of land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2020, InVEST model was used to estimate both geographical and chronological trends in the HQ in the Tuha region, China. Spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to assess HQ and spatial aggregation of habitat degradation, and ecological zoning was delineated in conjunction with the Human Footprint Index (HFI). Based on the results of ecological zoning, the study predicted changes in habitat quality (HQ) in 2040 under three scenarios: natural development (ND), ecological preservation (EP), and urban development (UD) by applying the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. The results demonstrated that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Tuha region exhibited a downward trend, with the proportion of low HQ increasing from 83.63% to 84.24%. Spatially, high habitat quality (HQ) is mainly concentrated in the Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the Moran index for habitat quality (HQ) decreased from 0.967 to 0.959, while the Moran index for habitat degradation declined from 0.805 to 0.780. The habitat quality (HQ) and degradation exhibit significant spatial aggregation, and the degree of degradation has increased incrementally. (2) From 2000 to 2020, human activities in the Tuha area increased continuously and were mainly concentrated in Tuha district and counties. The proportion of high Human Footprint Index (HFI) increased from 0.66% to 1.32%, while the proportion of medium HFI increased from 3.13% to 7.46%. (3) The expansion of urbanized land has exacerbated habitat degradation. The proportion of high HQ in the EP scenario is higher than that in ND and UD scenario. The results show that the ecological protection scenario is more conducive to the sustainable development of habitat quality in the Tuha region. The results can provide a scientific basis for ecological management and protection in the Tuha area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the evolution of land use and its impact on carbon storage is of significant importance for mitigating regional climate change and promoting green low-carbon development. Ningwu County is located in the source region of the Fenhe and Sanggan River, and its ecological status significantly influences the carbon storage (CS) of the watershed ecosystem. In this study, the PLUS-InVEST model was employed to analyze the land use evolution from 1990 to 2020 in Ningwu County, Shanxi Province, as well as their impacts on CS. Additionally, the study simulated and predicted land use changes in Ningwu County by 2040 under four scenarios: natural development (NDS), ecological protection (EPS), cultivated land protection (CLPS), and urban development (UDS), while estimating the corresponding changes in ecosystem CS. Furthermore, the study utilized optimal parameters-based geographical detector to explore the mechanisms underlying the spatial differentiation of CS. The results indicated that the areas of forest land and construction land in the study area consistently increased from 1990 to 2020, whereas the area of cultivated land continuously declined, with grassland, water bodies, and unused land exhibiting a fluctuating increasing trend. The spatial distribution of CS was highest in the northwest, second highest in the southeast, and lowest in the middle region. Over these 3 decades, CS had shown a continuous increase. It is projected that by 2040, the areas of forest and grassland will experience the most significant increase under the EPS; cultivated land only increase under the CLPS; while construction land display the greatest increase under the UDS. Compared to 2020, these four scenarios for 2040 indicate an increase in regional CS, with the EPS showing the largest increment. The primary factors influencing the spatial differentiation of CS in Ningwu County are human activities, followed by topography and climate change; the interactions among these factors exhibit a reinforcing relationship, with the interaction between the distance from construction land and slope having the most substantial impact on the spatial differentiation of CS.

[Objective] This study was aimed to estimate the amount of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. [Methods] The InVEST model and PLUS model were coupled to calculate the water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 and predict the water conservation amount under land use changes in the future in 2030. [Results] The average water conservation amount in Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2020 was 132.25 mm, with a spatial distribution characteristic of gradually increasing water conservation from north to south. From the perspective of vegetation types, forest land was the main body of water conservation in Shaanxi Province. The average annual water conservation amount was 199.55×108 m3. From the administrative region, Ankang City had the largest water conservation amount(308.96 mm). The total amount of water source conservation in 2030 will be 285.16×108 m3 and 8.68×108 m3 less than that in 2020. [Conclusion] The water conservation amount of Shaanxi Province will show a slight downward trend from 2020 to 2030 in the future.

Abstract As a major energy city in China, Yulin City has faced huge challenges to the ecological environment with its rapid economic development and rapid urbanization. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of land use changes on habitat quality. Based on three periods of land use data in Yulin City in 1995, 2005 and 2015, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use changes in 2015. The measured kappa coefficient was 0.8859, which met the simulation accuracy requirements. By setting development zone boundaries and adjusting parameters, three progressive scenarios are designed to predict the spatial distribution of land use in Yulin City in 2035. The InVEST model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of Yulin City’s habitat quality in the past 20 years and evaluate the distribution of Yulin City’s habitat quality under three scenarios after 20 years. The results are as follows: (1) During the study period, construction land in Yulin City expanded rapidly, with an area increase of 380.87 km2 in 20 years, and ecological land gradually shrank. (2) The land use simulation results of Yulin City under various scenarios in 2035 show that future land use changes in Yulin City will mainly be concentrated in the central and western regions. (3) During the study period, the habitat quality of Yulin City was at a medium level and the overall habitat quality showed a downward trend. Spatially, the degree of habitat quality degradation in Yulin City showed a characteristic of gradually decreasing from West to East. (4) By 2035, under the scenario of suitable urban economic development, Yulin City’s habitat quality has been improved to a certain extent, which not only protects ecological security but also meets the demand for construction land for urban development. The results of this study help the government better understand the evolution of land use and habitat quality in Yulin City in the past 20 years, and provide theoretical support and reference for the formulation of Yulin City’s ecological environment protection policies and the implementation of ecological protection work under the current land spatial planning.

[Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of “double carbon” goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated land was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land changed from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96×106 t, 140.13×106 t, and 139.81×106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss.

[Objective] The forest coverage rate of Fujian Province is as high as 66.8%, ranking first in China. To investigate the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in Fujian Province is the theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Methods] Based on the carbon storage module of PLUS model and InVEST model, relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and land use types in Fujian province during 2000—2020 was revealed, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon storage in Fujian Province during 2020—2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t, respectively, indicating a downward trend year by years. The development and transformation of land by human activities was the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks, and the conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas was the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results showed that compared with 2020, carbon storage under natural development, ecological protection and urban development in 2030 would decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t, respectively. The ecological protection scenario was the only development scenario that reversed the decline in carbon stocks. Compared with 2020, the forest area had expanded by 1 900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage had increased by 2.08 ×107 t, which could effectively protect the ecology and meet the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Copyright of Journal of Soil & Water Conservation (1009-2242) is the property of Institute of Soil & Water Conservation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Land use changes promote variations in ecosystem carbon storage, thereby influencing global climate. Investigating the impact of land use changes on carbon storage is crucial for regional ecosystem management and achieving economic sustainability. Taking Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province as a case study, this research utilizes land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, coupled with the PLUS and InVEST models, to analyze the relationship between land use changes and carbon storage. Furthermore, it evaluates carbon storage under different future scenarios. The results showed that the land use types were mainly cropland and grassland, accounting for about 71% of the total area. Over the past 20 years, there has been a declining trend in the area of cropland and grassland, while the area of forest land and cropland has showed an increasing trend, and the main direction of conversion was cultivated land to construction land. In 2030, under the natural development scenario, there will be a decrease in the areas of cropland, forestland, and water bodies, while grassland, construction land, and unused land will experience growth. In the ecological protection scenario, compared to natural development, there will be an increase in forestland and grassland, with other land categories experiencing varying degrees of reduction. Under the cropland protection scenario, the area of cropland is projected to increase by approximately 1.11 km² compared to the natural development scenario. Over the past 20 years, the carbon storage in this region increased first and then decreased, but the overall carbon storage showed a downward trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.19x106 t. Under the natural development scenario in 2030, carbon storage is 766.43x106 t; under the cropland protection scenario, the carbon storage is 767.28x106 t, under the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage is 768.5x106 t. Cropland protection falls between natural development and ecological protection in terms of carbon storage, suggesting that the City should prioritize cropland development while implementing certain ecological protection measures to mitigate the rate of decline in carbon storage in future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most extensive carbon reservoir system on Earth is found in the vegetation and soil in terrestrial ecosystems, which are essential to preserving the stability of ecosystems. Land use/cover change (LUCC) patterns in terrestrial ecosystems significantly impact carbon storage (CS). Therefore, it is imperative to investigate the relationship between LUCC and CS to coordinate regional ecological conservation and industrial development. In this study, the characteristics of spatial and temporal changes in land use and CS in the Yanqi Basin from 2000 to 2020 were revealed using the PLUS (patch-generating land use simulation) model and the CS module of the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) model. This study also predicted the spatial and temporal evolution of CS and the response mechanism of the Yanqi Basin from four scenarios—natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), cropland protection scenario (CPS), and urban development scenario (UDS) for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050. This study shows the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the Yanqi Basin witnessed an expansion in cropland and construction land, the order of the land use dynamic degree which is as follows: construction land > cropland > woodland > unused land > water > grassland. At the same time, the CS exhibited a trend of growth that was followed by a decline, a cumulative decrease of 3.61 Tg. (2) Between 2020 and 2050, woodland, grassland, and unused land decreased under the NDS and UDS. Meanwhile, grassland and woodland showed an expanding trend, and there was a decrease in cropland and construction land under the EPS; the CPS projected an increase in cropland to 3258.06 km2 by 2050. (3) CS under the UDS is always the lowest, and CS under the EPS is the highest; moreover, by 2050, CS under the EPS is projected to increase by 1.18 Tg compared with that under the UDS. The spatial distribution of CS shows a high value in the western part of the region and a low value in the eastern part of the region, which is more in line with the historical spatial distribution. (4) The development of land by human activities is one of the major factors leading to the change of CS. The direct cause of the decrease in CS is the transformation of large areas of cropland and woodland into construction land. Therefore, woodlands must be protected to improve CS and prevent ecological degradation. At the same time, future land use planning in the Yanqi Basin needs to limit the conversion rate of various types of land, control the construction land, optimize the urban pattern, improve the regional CS level, adhere to the concept of striving to achieve carbon neutrality, and realize the sustainable development of the region to provide scientific suggestions for carrying out macro-decision making regarding land use planning in arid areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Habitat quality (HQ) is vital for achieving sustainable regional development. Understanding the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of HQ in the context of land use–cover change (LUCC) is crucial for promoting ecological civilisation and high-quality growth, especially for regions with rapid economic development. Aims: In order to analyse the impact of LUCC on habitat quality in the coastal areas with frequent human activities. Methods: This study focused on the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay and analysed the HQ on the basis of LUCC data during 2010–2020 by using the InVEST model and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Additionally, land-use data for multiple scenarios in 2030 were predicted using the PLUS model, and the variations in land use and HQ in the study region during 2020–2030 were assessed. Key results: During 2010–2020, the construction land in the region expanded by 1932.79 km2, primarily at the expense of cropland and water areas. The mean HQ values were 0.6287, 0.6181 and 0.6037 for 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively, indicating a continuous decline. Spatially, HQ exhibited strong clustering during this period. However, there was a clear trend of fragmentation and reduction in 'high–high' cluster areas along the coast, mostly owing to the transformation of water areas and wetlands into construction land and cropland. In the projected scenarios (natural development, ND; economic development, ED; crop protection, CP; and ecological protection, EP) for 2030, the mean HQ values are estimated to be 0.5881, 0.5837, 0.5915 and 0.5965 respectively. Compared with 2020, there will be a certain decrease in HQ, with the EP scenario showing the lowest decrease of 0.0052. Conclusions: The HQ changes were closely linked to LUCC, the construction-land expansion was the main cause of HQ destruction in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. To alleviate the trend of declining HQ, it is essential to select appropriate development scenarios for each city in the region and coordinate the development of the cities. Implications: These findings provide valuable insights for promoting sustainable economic growth in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. Land use–cover change affects habitat quality and sustainable growth. This study predicted 2030 land-use scenarios with the PLUS model and assessed habitat quality from 2010 to 2030 with InVEST in the Greater Bay Area around Hangzhou Bay. Limiting construction, protecting farmland and expanding green spaces are essential for improving habitat quality. Findings have provided insights for sustainable growth. This article belongs to the collection Ecological Monitoring and Assessment of Freshwater Ecosystems: New Trends and Future Challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of carbon emissions caused by land use type change and human social activities is becoming more and more serious. Taking Jinan City as the study area, the land use change and carbon storage change in Jinan City from 2000 to 2020 were studied, and the land use and carbon storage in Jinan City in 2040 under different development scenarios were predicted based on the PLUS-InVEST model. The results show that land use change has an important impact on the carbon storage in Jinan City, and the carbon storage in Jinan City is decreased in 2020 compared with 2000. In 2040, under different land use scenarios, the decline of carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is the lowest, and the decline of carbon storage under the urban development scenario is the highest. The conversion between different land use types will have an impact on carbon stocks, with high carbon density in woodlands and reduced carbon stocks due to conversion of woodlands to other land uses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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[Objective] To seek a new urban development plan of Hefei under the guidance of "double carbon" goal. [Methods] Based on the land use data of Hefei City in the 5th period from 2000 to 2020, under the guidance of territorial spatial Planning of Hefei City, the spatio-temporal evolution law of land use in 2035 was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatio-temporal change characteristics of carbon storage in Hefei City under multiple scenarios were explored by coupling the InVEST model. And further explore the effect of the comprehensive land use on the carbon storage. [Results] (1) The main characteristics of land use change in Hefei City from 2000 to 2020 were the decrease of cultivated land and forest land, among which cultivated and was the main source of construction land expansion. The law of land change in the natural development and farmland resource protection scenarios was roughly the same, mainly represented by the reduction of cultivated land, forest land and water body. In the green urban development scenario, the area of forest land hanged from decreasing to increasing compared with the other two scenarios. (2) Carbon storage in Hefei City decreased year by year from 2000 to 2020, and the carbon loss was the most 2005 to 2010. By 2035, the carbon reserves of natural development scenario, farmland resource protection scenario and green urban development scenario were 138.96 × 106 t, 140.13 × 106 t, and 139.81 × 106 t, respectively. Under the farmland resource protection scenario, the area with the lowest increase of carbon storage significantly slowed down the expansion of the construction land. under the scenario of urban development, forest land changes from carbon loss to carbon sequestration, which was the most potential trend of carbon sequestration. (3) The land utilization rate of green urban development scenario was the highest, which can effectively reduce the threat of comprehensive land use degree to carbon storage loss. [Conclusion] Both farmland resource protection scenario and green accumulation urban development scenario were conducive to urban carbon sequestration development. Implementing parallel policies of ecological protection and urban development, and adjusting comprehensive land use mode were conducive to improving urban carbon loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arid Land Geography is the property of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In recent years, global climate change and human alterations to land use have led to a decrease in ecosystem services, making ecosystems more vulnerable. However, unlike the well-established risk assessment frameworks used in natural disaster research, the concept of ecological risks arising from changes in land use is still in its early stages, with its nuances and assessment methodologies yet to be clearly defined. This study proposes a new framework for assessing ecological risks resulting from changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin. The framework employs a coupled PLUS and Invest model to evaluate the ecological risks of land use change under three development scenarios projected for the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang by 2035. The findings indicate that: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the predominant land use types in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang were primarily unused land, followed by grassland and cropland. Conversely, grassland, water, and construction land were relatively less prevalent. During this period, the area of unused land and cultivated land increased, while grassland, forest land, and water exhibited a declining trend. Moving forward, under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2035, land use changes in the study area are characterized by the expansion of cropland and unused land, coupled with a significant decrease in grassland area, while other land categories demonstrate minor fluctuations. (2) From 2020 to 2035, across various scenarios, the total ecosystem service within the study area demonstrates an overall increasing trend in both the northern and southern marginal zones. Specifically, under the baseline scenario, the total amount of ecosystem services in the study area decreased by 15.247% compared to 2020. Similarly, under the economic development scenario, this decrease amounted to 13.358% compared to 2020. Conversely, under the ecological protection scenario, the decrease reached 19.852% compared to 2020. (3) The structure of ecological risk levels from 2020 to 2035, across multiple scenarios, demonstrates a consistent pattern, characterized by a predominant proportion of moderate risk. Conversely, other risk levels occupy relatively smaller proportions of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In investigating the spatiotemporal patterns and spatial attributes of carbon storage across terrestrial ecosystems, there is a significant focus on improving regional carbon sequestration capabilities. Such endeavors are crucial for balancing land development with ecological preservation and promoting sustainable, low-carbon urban growth. This study employs the integrated InVEST-PLUS model to assess and predict changes in ecosystem carbon storage under various land use scenarios within the Chengdu urban cluster, a vital region in Central and Western China, by 2050. The results indicate the following. (1) A linkage between land use dynamics and ecosystem carbon storage changes: over two decades, a 7.5% decrease in arable land was observed alongside a 12.3% increase in urban areas, leading to an 8.2% net reduction in ecosystem carbon storage, equating to a loss of 1.6 million tons of carbon. (2) Carbon storage variations under four scenarios—natural development (NDS), urban development (UDS), farmland protection (FPS), and ecological protection (EPS)—highlight the impact of differing developmental and conservation policies on Chengdu's carbon reserves. Projections until 2050 suggest a further 5% reduction in carbon storage under NDS without intervention, while EPS could potentially decrease carbon storage loss by 3%, emphasizing the importance of strategic land use planning and policy. This research provides a solid theoretical foundation for exploring the relationship between land use and carbon storage dynamics further. In summary, the findings highlight the necessity of incorporating ecological considerations into urban planning strategies. The InVEST-PLUS model not only sheds light on current challenges but also presents a method for forecasting and mitigating urbanization effects on ecosystem services, thus supporting sustainable development goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between land use changes and regional carbon storage is closely linked. Identifying evolving trends concerning and influencing factors on carbon storage under future scenarios is key in order to achieve the "dual carbon" goals. Using Chongqing as a case study, this study integrated the advantages of the PLUS model, InVEST model, and a geographic detector model. It conducted simulations of land use type data under scenarios of natural development (ND) and ecological protection (EP), and identified evolving trends and influencing factors regarding carbon storage. The results were as follows: (1) the PLUS model demonstrated excellent simulation performance, with a Kappa coefficient above 0.85 and an overall accuracy above 0.90. During the study period, significant changes occurred for cultivated land, forested land, water bodies, and construction, which were closely related to carbon storage; (2) carbon storage in Chongqing showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease of 10.07 × 106 t C from 2000 to 2020. Under the ND scenario, carbon storage was projected to decrease by 10.54 × 106 t C in 2030 compared to 2020, and it was expected to stabilize from 2030 to 2050. At the county level, Youyang, Fengjie, and Wuxi had the highest carbon storage, while Nanchuan, Jiangbei, and Dadukou had the lowest; (3) the spatial distribution of carbon storage presented an "eastern hotspot western cold spot aggregation" pattern. The proportions of regions with a decreased, unchanged, and increased aggregation of carbon storage in Chongqing during 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 were 2.99%, 95.95%, 1.06%; and 4.39%, 92.40%, 3.21%, respectively. The trend indicated a decrease in the aggregation of carbon storage, and future carbon storage was expected to stabilize; (4) elevation, terrain fluctuation, NDVI, annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, and nighttime light index had influence values of 0.88, 0.81, 0.61, 0.86, 0.77, and 0.81 on carbon storage, respectively, with different combinations of influencing factors having a greater impact. In the future, ecological priority and green development concepts should be followed, and comprehensive improvement of regional development conditions should be pursued to enhance carbon storage, thereby promoting the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals. This study provided an analytical path and data support for formulating optimized carbon storage policies at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems varies with land use changes, and exploring the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in regional terrestrial ecosystems is important for maintaining regional carbon balance. Data on Dalian City’s land use types from 2000 to 2020 are used in this research, to evaluate the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon storage in Dalian. Furthermore, with the scenarios of urban development, natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2030, this study combines the PLUS and InVEST models to emulate the dynamic adjustment at land-use types and the spatio-temporal evolution regarding carbon storage in Dalian City. The investigation shows that: 1) The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystem in Dalian has been altered as a consequence of changes in land use, and now it shows a general decline during 2000–2020, with reductions amounting to 5.39 × 106 t. 2) From 2000 through 2020, Dalian’s land resources that are utilized for farming, forestry, and grassland decreased to different degrees. The total construction land area increased by 796.47 km2, or 6.38 %, whereas there has been no substantial improvement in water or unused land. 3) The carbon storage reduction in 2030 in comparison to 2020 for the natural development, cultivated land protection, and urban development scenarios, among which the urban development scenario was the largest, was 1.36 × 106t. It suggests that the rapid rate of urbanization and expansion of construction land is an important cause of the decline in carbon storage. 4) The cultivated land protection scenario (CPS) yields the smallest reduction of 6.50 × 105t. The structure of Dalian’s land use type is optimum under the ecological protection scenario (EPS), as seen by the 3.90 × 105t increase in carbon storage under this scenario. It speeds up the rate of recovery of carbon storage and improves the function of carbon sinks in urban terrestrial ecosystems. Hoping to provide the reference to decision makers for ecosystem carbon storage optimization from the view of land use, which is vital for making future land use policies and realizing the “dual carbon” strategic goal.

The process of urbanization leads to the rapid expansion of construction land and brings a series of ecological and environmental problems. The ecological network, as a linear landscape element, is of great significance to improve the quality of the regional ecological environment. In this study, the Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and the model of Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) were used to construct the ecological corridors in the central city of Fuzhou, and the land use pattern under the constraints of the ecological network was simulated and quantified by the patch-level land use simulation (PLUS) tool with the results of the identification of ecological corridors. Meanwhile, with the help of InVEST habitat quality model, the regional habitat quality under different development scenarios was compared. The results show that (1) 19 ecological sources and 35 ecological corridors were identified; (2) under the constraints of ecological corridors, the area of forested land in the study area in 2027 was increased by 1.57% and the area of built-up land was reduced by 0.55% compared with that in 2022; (3) and under the constraints of ecological corridors, the mean value of habitat quality in Fuzhou City improved by 0.0055 and 0.0254 compared with 2022 and 2027 natural evolution scenarios, respectively. The study provides decision-making assistance for the construction of ecological corridors from the perspective of land use planning.

To explore the impact of land use change on ecosystem carbon storage in Hohhot City, this paper simulates and predicts the land use and carbon stock of Hohhot City under four scenarios, namely, natural development, ecological protection, arable land protection, and urban development based on the InVEST and PLUS models. The results showed that the area of land use types, such as impervious surface, forest land, grassland, and water bodies in Hohhot City increased from 1990 to 2020. The area of land types, such as cultivated land, bare land, and shrubs decreased, with shrubs and bare land having the highest land turn-out rate of 93.63% and 98.24%, respectively. The estimation results of the InVEST model indicated that the continuous expansion of anthropogenic ground, erosion of arable land, and other land use high carbon density land types that resulted in a decreasing trend of carbon storage in Hohhot City from 1990 to 2020. The carbon stocks in Hohhot City in 2030 under the abovementioned scenarios are predicted to decrease compared with those in 2020. Carbon stocks in the arable land protection scenario are predicted to decrease the least, followed by the ecological protection scenario, indicating that reasonable protection measures can effectively reduce the decrease of carbon stocks. The arable land conservation scenario can effectively slow down the expansion of urban buildings, while the ecological conservation scenario can effectively increase ecological land such as water bodies and grasslands. The study shows that the implementation of arable land and ecological protection policies, optimization of land use structure, and improvement of land use efficiency are all important for the sustainable development of Hohhot City. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change is the main factor driving the change of carbon stock, and assessing the impact of land use change on carbon stock is of great significance for carbon balance. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, based on the InVEST-PLUS model, we explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon stock in Jiangxi Province from 1990 to 2020, and measure the evolution of carbon stock under various scenarios in Jiangxi Province in 2030. (1) The carbon stocks in Jiangxi Province in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 1275.94×106 t, 1276.00×106 t, 1269.12×106 t and 1258.00×106 t, respectively, with an overall decreasing trend. The decrease of forest land was the main factor for the loss of carbon stock. Above-ground biomass carbon pool and soil carbon pool had the most carbon stock, accounting for 88.82% of the total carbon stock. (2) By 2030, the carbon stock of the natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario, and urban development scenario will decrease by 3.8×106 t, increase by 1.25×106 t, and decrease by 13.3×106 t, respectively, compared with 2020. it shows that the adoption of ecological protection measures and optimization of land-use structure can effectively control the decrease of carbon stock. (3) The areas with significantly higher carbon stocks are located in the mountainous areas of Gannan where ecological land use is continuous, while the areas with significantly lower carbon stocks are located in the northern regions of Gannan where carbon density values are low and construction land use is distributed in patches. The results of the study will provide a scientific basis for making reasonable ecological decisions for the construction of ecological civilization in Jiangxi Province and for realizing high-quality development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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For the preservation of ecosystems, including the enhancement of ecological strategies, examining the temporal and geographical variance in ecosystem services (ESs) and land use/land cover change (LUCC) is crucial. Gannan is situated on the upper Yellow River, which is a notable water conservation region with excellent ecological quality, but in the background of the local traditional production mode and rapid economic development, natural disasters, grassland degradation, and other ecological problems occur frequently. The integrated valuing of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model are combined in this work to assess the spatiotemporal variance in ESs in Gannan. We set up three scenarios in modeling future land use—ecological protection (EP), natural development (ND), and economic development (ED) in 2050—and analyzed and evaluated the drivers of the variation in ESs. In order to reveal the LUCC in Gannan between 1990 and 2020, we predicted the LUCC and ESs spatial distribution characteristics in 2050, explored the correlation between its driving factors, and comprehensively analyzed and propose optimization measures and protection strategies. Through several simulation experiments, the findings indicate the following: (1) the largest percentage of land expansion for construction in Gannan between 1990 and 2020 is 74.53%, and the most noticeable percentage of shrinkage in the sand area is 20.67%; (2) from 1990 to 2020, Gannan's water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality all changed, by 60 × 108 m3, 0.04 × 108 t, −10.66 × 108 t, and −0.02, respectively; (3) ESs are influenced by a variety of natural and societal variables: the southern and southwestern regions of Gannan are home to the majority of ESs hot spot areas, while the northern region is home to the majority of cold spot areas. This study contributes to the analysis of the developmental traits of Gannan ecosystems and can serve as a model for the preservation of terrestrial ecosystems with comparable environmental traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In response to a series of problems brought about by rapid economic development, such as global warming and the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment, China has taken the initiative to shoulder the responsibility of a major country and continued to contribute Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" at an early date. In this paper, Henan Province has been selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and carbon storage in Henan Province from 2000 to 2020 have been analyzed spatially and temporally. The PLUS model is used to predict future land use changes under different scenarios, and the InVEST model is used to estimate carbon storage under the corresponding scenarios. The results showed that (1) During 2000–2020, the farmland in Henan Province has been in a decreasing trend, grassland and construction land showed a decreasing trend and then an increasing trend, and woodland showed a decreasing trend. From 2000 to 2020, Henan's overall carbon storage showed a downward trend each year, with storage mainly in the western and southern regions of the province, with a spatial distribution of high storage in the west and low storage in the east. (2) Under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) from 2030 to 2050, the area of farmland and woodland basically showed a continuous downward trend, while construction land showed an upward trend annually, and farmland and construction land showed an increasing trend under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) and economic priority scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). The decreasing trend of carbon storage was the smallest under the normal development scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5) and the ecological protection scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6). The results provide a basis for decision-making regarding low-carbon and circular developments and rational and optimal land use in Henan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation is the property of Bulletin of Soil & Water Conservation Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Biodiversity is profoundly influenced by habitat quality, and Harbin, a provincial capital situated in a cold climate zone, stands out as one of China's regions most susceptible to the repercussions of climate change. To ensure the city's continued sustainable growth, a thorough assessment of habitat quality must be conducted. This study employs a comprehensive approach integrating the InVEST model, the PLUS model, a landscape pattern analysis, geographic detector, and a geographically weighted regression model. The goal is to assess how land use and habitat quality have changed in Harbin City, investigate factors contributing to spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality, thoroughly examine evolutionary patterns under the inertial development scenario from 2030 to 2050, and propose spatial optimization strategies. There are four key findings. First, from 2000 to 2020, agricultural land and forest were Harbin City's two most prevalent land use types. The most notable transition occurred from forest to grassland, and the expansion of construction land primarily resulted from its encroachment into agricultural areas. Second, within the area of study, the landscape heterogeneity increased while simultaneously experiencing a decrease in connectivity, and the landscape had a tendency toward a more fragmented spatial distribution. Third, overall habitat quality rose between 2000 and 2020 but declined between 2030 and 2050. There was a "weak in the west and high in the east" distribution pattern in the spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality. Fourth, population density has the most impact on habitat quality, with the NDVI and GDP close behind. Conversely, precipitation and slope had comparatively smaller influences on habitat quality. Natural factors combined had a primarily favorable influence on habitat quality across the research region in terms of spatial distribution. Conversely, population density had a discernibly detrimental impact. Given these findings, this study suggests targeted strategies to optimize habitat quality. These recommendations are relevant not only for biodiversity conservation but also for the development of an ecologically sustainable community, particularly in a cold climate region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]