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BackgroundThe burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is increasing globally in particular in fast emerging economies such as Iran. Population-based studies on prevalence of CKD in Iran are scarce. The objective of the current study was to explore the prevalence and determinants of CKD in the setting of Golestan Cohort Study (GCS), the largest prospective cohort in the Middle East.MethodsIn this observational study, 11,409 participants enrolled in the second phase of GCS were included. Sex, age, literacy, residence, anthropometric measurements, smoking, opium use, self-reported history of cardiovascular diseases (heart disease and/or stroke), hypertension, diabetes, and lipid profile were the predictors of interest. The outcomes of interest were eGFR and CKD defined as eGFR< 60 ml/min/1.73m2.ResultsMean (SD) of GFR was 70.0 ± 14.7 ml/min/1.73m2 among all participants, 68.2 ± 14.2 among women, and 72.0 ± 15.0 among men. Prevalence of CKD was 23.7% (26.6% in women, 20.6% in men). The prevalence of CKD stages 3a, 3b, 4, and 5 were 20.0%, 3.3%, 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. Female sex, older age, urban residence, history of CVD, hypertension or diabetes, larger body mass and surrogates of body fat and opium use were all associated with CKD. Opium had a significant positive association with CKD in adjusted model. All anthropometric measurements had positive linear association with CKD. Being literate had inverse association. Sex had significant interaction with anthropometric indices, with higher odds ratios among men compared with women. A significantly high association was observed between the rate of change in waist circumference and systolic blood pressure with risk of CKD.ConclusionOne in four people in this cohort had low eGFR. Obesity and overweight, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia are major risk factors for CKD. Halting the increase in waist circumference and blood pressure may be as important as reducing the current levels.

Purpose: We aimed to estimate the level and trend of plasma cholesterol and raised total cholesterol (TC > 200 mg/dl) prevalence at national and subnational level of Iran. Methods: Nine national surveys and 27 studies, encompassing 3,505 unique points on over 500,000 adults, aged > 25 years with a report of laboratory measurement of TC were found. Age-spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression were used to estimate mean TC for each sex, 5-year age groups, and 31 provinces from 1990 to 2016. Results: At national level, age-standardized prevalence of TC > 200 mg/dL has decreased from 57·2%(53·3–61·1) to 22·4%(20·5–24·3) in women and 53·2%(49·1–57·3) to 18·0%(16·4–19·6) in men. TC distribution presented a condensation between 170-200 mg/dL. At subnational level, decreasing and converging patterns of raised TC prevalence were detected. Conclusion: The decrease in raised TC is likely the result of statin widespread use, food industry improvements, and the expanded primary health care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have reported an association between hot tea drinking and risk of esophageal cancer, but no study has examined this association using prospectively and objectively measured tea drinking temperature. We examined the association of tea drinking temperature, measured both objectively and subjectively at study baseline, with future risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in a prospective study. We measured tea drinking temperature using validated methods and collected data on several other tea drinking habits and potential confounders of interest at baseline in the Golestan Cohort Study, a population‐based prospective study of 50,045 individuals aged 40–75 years, established in 2004–2008 in northeastern Iran. Study participants were followed‐up for a median duration of 10.1 years (505,865 person‐years). During 2004–2017, 317 new cases of ESCC were identified. The objectively measured tea temperature (HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.10–1.81; for ≥60°C vs. <60°C), reported preference for very hot tea drinking (HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.27–4.56; for "very hot" vs. "cold/lukewarm"), and reported shorter time from pouring tea to drinking (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01–2.26; for <2 vs. ≥6 min) were all associated with ESCC risk. In analysis of the combined effects of measured temperature and amount, compared to those who drank less than 700 ml of tea/day at <60°C, drinking 700 mL/day or more at a higher‐temperature (≥60°C) was consistently associated with an about 90% increase in ESCC risk. Our results substantially strengthen the existing evidence supporting an association between hot beverage drinking and ESCC. What's new? Previous studies have indicated that hot tea may increase the risk of esophageal cancer. In this large, prospective study, the authors found that drinking hot tea is indeed associated with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Furthermore, a preference for "very hot" tea more than doubled this risk. It may thus be a reasonable public‐health measure to extrapolate these results to all types of beverages, and to advise the public to wait for beverages to cool to <60°C before consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: While few studies investigated the incidence of stroke in Iran, no Iranian cohort has estimated the standardized-incidence rate and early fatality of first-ever-stroke subtypes along with associated factors.Methods: Golestan Cohort Study is a prospective study launched in northeastern Iran in 2004, including 50,045 individuals aged 40-75 at baseline. Age-standardized incidence rate of first-ever-stroke was calculated per 100,000 person-years, according to World Standard Population. The 28-day case fatality was calculated by dividing the number of fatal first-ever-stroke during the first 28 days by total events. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to assess incidence and fatality risk factors. We used Population Attributable Fractions to estimate the incidence and early fatality proportions reduced by ideal risk factor control.Results: 1,135 first-ever-strokes were observed during 8.6 (median) years follow-up. First-ever-stroke standardized incidence rate was estimated 185.2 (95% CI: 173.2-197.2) per 100,000 person-years. The 28-day case fatality was 44.1% (95% CI: 40.4-48.2). Hypertension and pre-stroke physical activity were the strongest risk factors associated with first-ever-stroke incidence (Hazard ratio: 2.83; 2.47-3.23) and 28-day case fatality (Hazard ratio: 0.59; 0.44-0.78), respectively. Remarkably, opium consumption was strongly associated with hemorrhagic stroke incidence (Hazard ratio: 1.52; 1.04-2.23) and ischemic stroke fatality (Hazard ratio: 1.44; 1.01-2.09). Overall, modifiable risk factors contributed to 83% and 61% of first-ever-stroke incidence and early fatality, respectively.Conclusion: Efficient risk factor control can considerably reduce stroke occurrence and fatality in our study. Establishing awareness campaigns and 24-hour stroke units seem necessary for improving the stroke management in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the most prevalent cause of adult liver transplants in Iran, the mortality rates and leading causes of death in HBV patients are not well-understood. This study aimed to investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality among HBsAg positive individuals in a large Iranian cohort. Methods: The Golestan Cohort Study includes 50 045 individuals aged 40-75 residing in Iran's Golestan province, enrolled during 2004-2008. HBsAg test was performed at baseline. For the present study, individuals with hepatitis C coinfection were excluded. All-cause mortality was considered as the primary outcome. The association between HBsAg and different mortality causes was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard models. P value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: The current study included 49 667 participants. After 11.33 (median) follow-up years, there were 7,686 total deaths, with 635 deaths in the HBsAg positive group. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model, HBsAg positive individuals had higher all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.06-1.24) and liver-related mortality risk (aHR = 7.13; 5.19-9.79). Mortality from colorectal and pancreatic cancers was higher among male HBsAg positive participants (aHRs = 2.41 and 2.22, respectively). Nevertheless, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and extrahepatic malignancies were the leading causes of death among both HBsAg positive and negative individuals, and liver-related deaths contributed to an overall 10% of deaths in HBsAg positive patients. Conclusion: HBV is associated with significant mortality risk from different causes in Iranian adults. However, solely focusing on liver outcomes in Iranian HBV patients might result in overlooking non-liver events, especially CVD and extrahepatic cancers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to present the temporal and geographical trends in the incidence of stomach cancer in the Golestan province, a high-risk area in Northern Iran. Methods: This study was conducted on stomach cancer cases registered in the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR) during 2004-2016. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100000 person-years were calculated. The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percent changes (AAPC). We also calculated the contribution of population aging, population size and risk to the overall changes in incidence rates. Results: Overall, 2964 stomach cancer patients were registered. The ASR of stomach cancer was significantly higher in men (26.9) than women (12.2) (P<0.01). There was a significant decreasing trend in incidence of stomach cancer in men (AAPC=-1.80, 95% CI: -3.30 to-0.28; P=0.02). We found a higher ASR of stomach cancer in the rural (21.4) than urban (18.1) (P=0.04) population, as well as a significant decreasing trend in its rates (AAPC=-2.14, 95% CI: -3.10 to -1.17; P<0.01). The number of new cases of stomach cancer increased by 22.33% (from 215 in 2004 to 263 in 2016), of which 18.1%, 25.1% and -20.9% were due to population size, population aging and risk, respectively. Our findings suggest a higher rate for stomach cancer in eastern areas. Conclusion: We found high incidence rates as well as temporal and geographical diversities in ASR of stomach cancer in Golestan, Iran. Our results showed an increase in the number of new cases, mainly due to population size and aging. Further studies are warranted to determine the risk factors of this cancer in this high-risk population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the most common causes of mortality in all populations. Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis is a common finding in patients with CVD. Prevention of CVD in individual patients typically requires periodic clinical evaluation, as well as diagnosis and management of risk factors such as hypertension and hyperlipidemia. However, this is resource consuming and hard to implement, especially in developing countries. We designed a study to investigate the effects of a simpler strategy: a fixed-dose combination pill consisting of aspirin, valsartan, atorvastatin and hydrochlorthiazide (PolyPill) in an unselected group of persons aged over 50 years. Design: The PolyIran-Liver study was performed in Gonbad city as an open label pragmatic randomized controlled trial nested within the Golestan Cohort Study. We randomly selected 2,400 cohort study participants aged above 50 years, randomly assigned them to intervention or usual care and invited them to participate in an additional measurement study (if they met the eligibility criteria) to measure liver related outcomes. Those agreeing and randomized to the intervention arm were offered a daily single dose of PolyPill. We will follow participants for 5 years. The primary outcome is major cardiovascular events, secondary outcomes include all-cause mortality and liver related outcomes: liver stiffness and liver enzyme levels. Cardiovascular outcomes and mortality will be determined from the cohort study and liver-related outcomes in those consenting to follow up. Analysis will be by allocated group. Trial status: Between October and December 2011, 1,320 intervention and 1,080 control participants were invited to participate in the additional measurement study. For all these participants, the major cardiovascular events will be determined using blind assessment of outcomes through the cohort study. In the intervention and control arms, 875 (66%) and 721 (67%) respectively, met the eligibility criteria and agreed to participate in the additional measurement study. Liver related outcomes will be measured in these participants. Of the 1,320 participants randomized to the intervention, 787 (60%) accepted the PolyPill. Conclusion: The PolyIran-liver urban study will provide us with important information on the effectiveness of PolyPill on major cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality and liver related outcomes. (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01245608). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Esophageal cancer (EC) is the eighth common cancer and the sixth most common cause of death from cancer worldwide. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains the most common type of EC in the developing world and an important health problem in high-risk areas. Most of ESCC cases present in late stages, resulting in delayed diagnosis and poor prognosis. Prevention is the most effective strategy to control ESCC. Primary and secondary preventive methods may be considered for ESCC. In primary prevention, we try to avoid known risk factors. The aim of the secondary preventive method (ESCC screening programs) is to detect and eliminate premalignant precursor lesion of ESCC, preventing its progression into advanced stages. Similar to all population-based screening programs, any screening for early detection of ESCC must be cost-effective; otherwise, screening may not be indicated in that population. Endoscopy with iodine staining has been accepted as a population-level ESCC screening program in some high-risk areas including parts of China. This method may be too expensive and invasive in other high-risk communities. Nonendoscopic methods may be more applicable in these populations for population-based screenings. The limitations (questionable validity and costs) of new endoscopic imaging modalities, including narrow-band imaging (NBI), made them inappropriate to be used in population-level ESCC screening programs. Low-cost, less-invasive endoscopic imaging methods with acceptable diagnostic performance may make screening of ESCC in high-risk areas cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Esophageal cancer (EC) is the eighth common cancer worldwide. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and adenocarcinoma (EAD) are the most common histologic types of EC. Many recent reports showed an increasing trend in EAD and a decreasing trend in ESCC in many Western countries. Golestan Province in northeastern Iran has been known as a high-risk area for EC. The aim of this study was to describe the time trend of EAD in this area between 2000-2009. Methods: Data on cancer cases were obtained from Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry. Analysis was done using Joinpoint software. To examine the incidence trends, the annual percent change was calculated. The possibilities of anatomic and histologic misclassification were considered by assessing the trend of ESCC and gastric adenocarcinoma. Results: A total number of 1186 histologically-confirmed EC cases were recruited. The incidence rate of EAD showed a significant increasing trend. There was no significant trend in the incidence of ESCC during the study period. A significant increase in the incidence rate of gastric adenocarcinoma was observed during the period of 2000-2005, followed by a plateau during the period of 2005-2009. Conclusions: We found a significant increasing trend in the incidence rate of EAD. We find no evidence to support an alternative explanation including anatomic and histologic misclassification. So, the observed rise in the incidence of EAD seems to be real. Therefore, designing and implementation of control programs, including control of preventable risk factors of EAD, should be considered in this high-risk area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]