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Objective: The current study aimed to predict disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate in Japan through 2040 with plausible future scenarios of fruit intake for neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKD).Design: Data from National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017 were used. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model with four future scenarios. Reference scenario maintains the current trend. Best scenario assumes that the goal defined in Health Japan 21 is achieved in 2023 and is kept constant afterwards. Moderate scenario assumes that the goal is achieved in 2040. Constant scenario applies the same proportion of 2016 for the period between 2017 and 2040.Setting: DALY rates in Japan were predicted for the period between 2017 and 2040.Participants: Population aged more than than 20 years old.Results: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates in all-ages group were projected to be stable for CVD and continue increasing for neoplasms and DKD. Age group-specific DALY rates for these three disease groups were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Among men aged 20-49 years, DALY attributable to CVD differed substantially between the scenarios, implying that there is a significant potential for reducing the burden of CVD by increasing fruit intake at the population level.Conclusions: Our scenario analysis shows that higher fruit intake is associated with lower disease burden in Japan. Further research is required to assess which policies and interventions can be used to achieve an increase in fruit intake as modelled in the scenarios of the current study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We here report a case of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) in Japan in which the initial throat swab polymerase chain reaction result was negative The possibility of false-negative results in the early phase of disease suggest reconsideration of the feasibility of a community or national infection control framework to prevent transmission. We recommend establishing an alternative feasible system, such as self-isolation by contact history in non-endemic community and by symptoms in endemic community, not relying on the PCR examination, to minimize this ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Further rapid accumulation of knowledge including incubation period, clinical course and types of transmission is warranted to control this outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]