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The role that land-use and socioeconomic factors exert on consolidating land degradation (LD) processes is a major research issue. However, intensity and type of the impact played by LD on such land use factors is still underexplored. The present study investigates the role of LD on land-use change (LUC) trajectories of land abandonment (LA) and urban expansion (URB) in the three geographical repartitions (North, Centre, South) of Italy between 1990 and 2012, by means of the Environmental Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). ENFA is a multivariate approach originally introduced in the analysis of animal ecology allowing to compute habitat suitability (HS) models without requiring presence/absence data. Four environmental quality indices about climate (CQI), soil (SQI), vegetation (VQI) and land management (MQI) have been analyzed for the years 1990 and 2000 and related to the trajectories of LA and URB, respectively, for the time periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2012. Empirical results have indicated that different driving forces are linked to LA and URB, and that for each trajectory, the role of some forces may change over time. Evidence shows that soil quality and low human pressure represent the main drivers of LA. By contrast, as for URB, high human pressure represented the main driving factor throughout the country, both during 1990–2000 and 2000–2012. The HS maps show the probability arrangement of LA and URB in the three geographical repartitions. Starting from this work, further research is increasingly required to implement prediction models of future LA and URB trajectories according to the current land quality status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land Degradation (LD) is a complex phenomenon resulting in a progressive reduction in the capacity of providing ecosystem services (ES). Landscape transformations promoting an unsustainable use of land often reveal latent processes of LD. An evaluation carried out in respect to the different ecosystem services is nowadays regarded as the most appropriate approach for assessing the effects of LD. The aim of this study is to develop an evaluation framework for identifying the linkages between land changes, LD processes and ES and suggesting Sustainable Land Management (SLM) options suited to reverse (or mitigate) LD impact. A SWOT analysis was carried out with the aim to identify internal and external factors that are favorable (or unfavorable) to achieve the proposed SLM actions. The study areas are the Fortore valley and the Valpadana, in Italy. The main trajectory identified for the Fortore valley is related to land abandonment due to population aging and the progressive emigration started in the 1950s. The most relevant LD processes are soil erosion and geomorphological instability, affecting regulating services such as natural hazard and erosion control. SLM options should consider interventions to contrast geomorphological instability, the promotion of climate smart agriculture and of typical products, and an efficient water resources management. The main trajectories identified for Valpadana are related to urban expansion and farmland abandonment and, as a consequence, land take due to anthropogenic pressure and woodland expansion as the main LD process. The reduction of food production was identified as the most relevant provisioning service affected. SLM should envisage best practices finalized to water saving and soil consumption reduction: efficient irrigation solutions, climate smart agriculture and zero sealing practices. This study highlights the diagnostic value of the suggested approach where LD processes are elicited from land change trajectories determining specific impacts on ES and providing operational support for the implementation of SLM options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use/land cover changes (LULCCs) represent the result of the complex interaction between biophysical factors and human activity, acting over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The aim of this work is to quantify the role of biophysical factors in constraining the trajectories of land abandonment and urbanization in the last 50 years. A habitat suitability model borrowed from animal ecology was used to analyze the ecological niche of the following LULCC trajectories occurred in Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy) during 1954–2008: (i) land abandonment (LA) and (ii) urbanization (URB), both from agricultural areas (URB_agr) and from semi-natural areas (URB_for). Results showed that the different LULCC trajectories were driven by different combinations of biophysical factors, such as climate, topography and soil quality. In particular, slope and elevation resulted as the main driving factors for rural processes, while slope and temperatures resulted as the main constraints underlying urban processes. This approach may represent a conceptual and technical step toward the systematic assessment of LULCC processes, thus providing an effective support tool to inform decision makers about land use transformations, their underlying causes, as well as their possible implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]