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Land use changes have profoundly influenced global environmental dynamics. The Yellow River (YR), as the world's fifth-longest river, significantly contributes to regional social and economic growth due to its extensive drainage area, making it a key global player. To ensure ecological stability and coordinate land use demand, modeling the future land allocation patterns of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) will assist in striking a balance between land use functions and the optimization of its spatial design, particularly in water and sand management. In this research, we used a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with the PLUS model to simulate several different futures for the YRB's land use between 1990 and 2020 and predict its spatial pattern in 2030. An analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use changes in the YRB indicated that construction land expansion is the primary driver of landscape pattern and structure changes and ecological degradation, with climate change also contributing to the expansion of the watershed area. On the other hand, the multi-scenario simulation, constrained by specific targets, revealed that economic development was mainly reflected in land expansion for construction. At the same time, grassland and woodland were essential pillars to support the region's ecological health, and increasing the development of unused land emerged as a potential pathway towards sustainable development in the region. This study could be used as a template for the long-term growth of other large river basins by elucidating the impacts of human activities on land use and rationalizing land resource allocation under various policy constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services (ESs) bridge the gap between human wellbeing and ecosystem processes. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), one of the most developed urban agglomerations in China, is subject to intense LUCC that affects ESs while increasing the regional ecological risk (ER). Therefore, to achieve the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological quality, there is an urgent need to establish a regional ecological risk assessment (ERA). ESs were introduced into the ERA to clarify their ecological significance and to compensate for the deficiencies of the traditional ERA. In this study, the ERA utilizes key ESs as endpoints to assess potential ER through a new framework by multiplying the probability of LUCC by the resultant loss of key ESs. We found that cultivated land was the most dominant outflow type and built-up land was the predominant inflow type. From 2020 to 2030, there is a greater possibility of changes in cultivated land, forest, grassland, and built-up land as well as in relatively stable water bodies and unused land. Overall, ESs show a positive trend. The overall potential ER was relatively minimal, with a significant northwestern spatially concentrated characteristic of high values. This study helps understand the potential development process of ERs and provides a scientific basis for risk management. • This study establishes a new framework to evaluate potential ecological risks. • Cultivated land is the most dominant outflow type and built-up land is the predominant inflow type. • Ecosystem services present a positive direction in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. • Overall potential ecological risk is relatively minimal with significant spatial variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The analysis effect is most effective at the scale of 90 km × 90 km. • Landscape pattern exhibits increasing fragmentation, a decrease in the degree of aggregation and an increase in the heterogeneity of distribution. • Most of the landscape ecological risk levels have shifted from higher to lower levels. • The landscape ecological risk of the Yellow River Basin is in a better state. Rapid urbanization is a global phenomenon that has altered many ecosystems and created ecological risks. Landscape ecological risk (LER) reflects the extent to which ecosystems are threatened by human activities and environmental change. LER can be also employed to effectively monitor and assess environmental quality. A large number of studies have been conducted to explore the LER in the basin from the perspective of Land Use and Land Cover (LUCC). Ecological environmental issues such as land degradation have seriously hindered the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Based on the LUCC data of the YRB in the four periods of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, this study aims to determine the most suitable spatial analysis scale using the coefficient of variation and semi-variogram, and analyzes the landscape pattern and LER of the YRB. We found that the landscape pattern of the YRB exhibits obvious scale dependence, and the analysis effect is most effective at the scale of 90 km × 90 km. Throughout the study period, the landscape pattern exhibited increasing fragmentation, a decrease in the degree of aggregation and an increase in the heterogeneity of distribution. In terms of LER, it is in a better state as most of the LER levels have shifted from higher to lower levels, and the proportion of lower and lowest risk is constantly increasing. This study improves the precision of spatial scale investigations and offers valuable insights for future studies on landscape pattern and LER in the basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]