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Flow-like landslides are recognized to be the most destructive slope movements and to threaten human life. They may occur in several geological settings, as is the case of the pyroclastic soil covers resting on either igneous, or carbonate, bedrocks. The pyroclastic soil strata involved in these shallow landslides typically are partially saturated over the whole year. Intense rainfall, considered at hourly time scale, represents the triggering factor because it causes the decrease in matric suction and the consequent decrease in soil shear strength. However, it is recognized as the role of the hydromechanical slope behavior, the vegetation cover, and the geomorphological irregularities on shallow landslide hazard. These factors should be properly simulated in physically based predictive models of the failure onset to set up a reliable early warning system (EWS). This paper presents a new coupled thermohydraulic modeling of a pyroclastic soil cover in Campania, accounting for several slope factors that may predispose landslide activation, including the geomorphological local irregularities. The Mount Faito test site, in the Lattari Mountains (Southern Italy), has been adopted as a prototype slope for the geomorphological and hydromechanical scenarios of reference because of the extensive field and laboratory characterizations of the soil strata already available from previous studies. Once validated with these data, the numerical model has been used to estimate the slope response to critical rainfall scenarios. Such numerical estimations have been then compared to the instability predictions currently provided by empirical approaches, defined in terms of the intensity and duration of rainstorms threshold of shallow landslide activations. By comparison between the empirical and physically based approaches, the crucial role of antecedent slope hydraulic conditions and the geological setting for implementing reliable EWS, reducing false alarms, is proved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broad mountainous areas in the western Campania (southern Italy), where young pyroclastic deposits extensively outcrop, frequently experience rainfall-induced slope movements of different degrees of mobility, causing heavy damage and fatalities. Such landslides cannot be easily mitigated, and the implementation of physically based early warning systems is still not able to predict the post-failure evolution of slope movements and the exposed areas at risk. This paper is devoted to overcoming this limit. To this end, the mechanical characterization of pyroclastic soil, carried out through an extensive laboratory testing program, is presented and compared with those of two other ashy soils of different depositional mechanisms. The results show that the depositional mode influences soil properties; to begin with, it affects the unsaturated shear strength, whose intercept of cohesion is up to 5 kPa higher in ashes of flow deposition than in airfall ash deposits. The saturated undrained soil response allowed for the identification of different levels of susceptibility to the liquefaction of pyroclastic deposits, which is one of the main factors governing the post-failure evolution of landslides. Gathering all the acquired information, including saturated and unsaturated soil shear strength, permeability function, and water retention curves, into a soil database, it was possible to present all data under a unitary framework. Finally, the implementation of the proposed flowchart for a simplified assessment of post-failure evolution to be employed in regional early warning systems can enhance our knowledge of the areas at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thickness and stratigraphic settings of soils covering slopes potentially control susceptibility to initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides due to their local effect on slope hydrological response. Notwithstanding the relevance of the assessment of hazard to shallow landsliding at a distributed scale by approaches based on a coupled modelling of slope hydrological response and slope stability, the spatial variability of soil thickness and stratigraphic settings are factors poorly considered in the literature. Under these premises, this paper advances the well-known case study of rainfall-induced shallow landslides involving ash-fall pyroclastic soils covering the peri-Vesuvian mountains (Campania, southern Italy). In such a unique geomorphological setting, the soil covering is formed by alternating loose ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and paleosols, with high contrasts in hydraulic conductivity and total thickness decreasing as the slope angle increases, thus leading to the establishment of lateral flow and an increase of pore water pressure in localised sectors of the slope where soil horizon thickness is less. In particular, we investigate the effects, on hillslope hydrological regime and slope stability, of irregular bedrock topography, spatial variability of soil thickness and vertical hydraulic heterogeneity of soil horizons, by using a coupled three-dimensional hydrological and a probabilistic infinite slope stability model. The modelling is applied on a sample mountain catchment, located on Sarno Mountains (Campania, southern Italy), and calibrated using physics-based rainfall thresholds derived from the literature. The results obtained under five simulated constant rainfall intensities (2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 mm h−1) show an increase of soil pressure head and major failure probability corresponding to stratigraphic and morphological discontinuities, where a soil thickness reduction occurs. The outcomes obtained from modelling match the hypothesis of the formation of lateral throughflow due to the effect of intense rainfall, which leads to the increase of soil water pressure head and water content, up to values of near-saturation, in narrow zones of the slope, such as those of downslope reduction of total soil thickness and pinching out of soil horizons. The approach proposed can be conceived as a further advance in the comprehension of slope hydrological processes at a detailed scale and their effects on slope stability under given rainfall and antecedent soil hydrological conditions, therefore in predicting the most susceptible areas to initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and the related I-D rainfall thresholds. Results obtained demonstrate the occurrence of a slope hydrological response depending on the spatial variability of soil thickness and leading to focus slope instability in specific slope sectors. The approach proposed is conceived to be potentially exportable to other slope environments for which a spatial modelling of soil thickness would be possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The term debris flow is associated with a wide variety of phenomena as debris slides, debris torrents, debris floods, mudflows, mudslides, hyper-concentrated flows and lahars (in volcanic slopes). In historical times, they frequently occurred in Campania Region (Southern Italy) producing damage and casualties. In this paper, more than 200 events described as "debris flow" between 1924 and 2020 were collected. They are mainly located in the central sector of the region, which is characterized by pyroclastic deposits resting on steep carbonate and volcanic slopes and highly prone to hydrogeological hazards. Debris flow events registered in the region were classified as "gravity processes" (flow-like landslides, FL) or "fluvial processes" (flash floods, FF). This classification is fundamental for designing effective early warning systems and risk mitigation plans, since the two phenomena are triggered by different types of rainfall events and are responsible for damages of different magnitude. In this study, a large rainfall database was explored to identify the time scales and seasonality of the two classes of rainfall events, respectively triggering the two phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the results of a study aimed at quantitatively estimating—in terms of direct (repair) costs, at large scale (1:5000)—the slow-moving landslide risk to a road network assumed as undamaged as well as the consequences to the same network in damaged conditions. The newly conceived methodological approaches address some challenging tasks concerning (i) the hazard analysis, which is expressed in terms of probability of occurrence of slow-moving landslides with a given intensity level that, in turn, is established based on empirical fragility curves, and (ii) the consequence analysis, which brings to the generation of time-dependent vulnerability curves. Their applicability is successfully tested in a case study in the Campania region (southern Italy) for which both very high-resolution DInSAR data and information gathered from in situ surveys on the severity of damage sustained by the selected road sections are available. Benefits associated with the use of the obtained results in informed decision-making processes are finally discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last ten thousand years, the explosive activity of some volcanic centers has blanketed with pyroclastic soils the major part of Campania Region, Southern Italy. Experience shows that the sloping deposits may be mobilized by long-lasting precipitations, leading to rapid and sometimes catastrophic flow-type slope movements. This paper summarizes the present knowledge on this subject based on the results of both laboratory tests and experiments and on a review of the main data provided by field surveys. In particular, a careful examination and analysis of the available elements highlight the key role played by lithological and morphological details on failure and post-failure mechanisms, thus affecting landslide hazard. In fact, it is shown that deposition mode and grain size, slope angle, and morphology strongly affect the type of post-failure movement, which may take the features of a debris avalanche, of a debris flow, or of a flowslide and may lead (or not) to soil liquefaction, a mechanism that strongly affects both displacement rate and run-out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent events, including the floods in central Europe in May 2021, have highlighted how climate change is giving rise to scenarios that were neither foreseen nor predictable. One problem this poses is the need to rethink the logic of various environmental constraints that are often based on return times of 20-50 years or 100-200. A single event does not change the statistical expectations for the recurrence of the event itself, but the recurrence of several extraordinary events in a few years is a clear indication of a changing trend. The prevention of the effects of such events is based on the definition of the areas at greater or lesser risk specifically based on the return times of the exceptional events, so it is foreseeable that a series of territorial plans, mostly carried out a few decades ago, will have to be updated or re-executed from scratch. These reworkings will be able to take advantage of the opensource software and open spatial data that have become available in the meantime, facilitating the entire process, and making it more open and shareable. In this paper we tested on a real case (the May 1999 pyroclastic flows in Campania, southern Italy) the actual possibility of implementing a model for forecasting such events using only open-source software and open data. It has been demonstrated that the entire process can be carried out using only open-source resources and it has been verified that the predictions of the hazard and risk model obtained with only input data prior to the event, give an output prediction that is significantly coincident with the events that actually occurred as documented by the authorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the territory of the Campania region (southern Italy), critical rainfall events periodically trigger dangerous fast slope movements involving ashy and pyroclastic soils originated by the explosive phases of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano and deposited along the surrounding mountain ranges. In this paper, an integration of engineering-geological and geophysical measurements is presented to characterize unsaturated pyroclastic samples collected in a test area on the Sarno Mountains (Salerno and Avellino provinces, Campania region). The laboratory analyses were aimed at defining both soil water retention and electrical resistivity curves versus water content. From the matching of the experimental data, a direct relationship between electrical resistivity and matric suction is retrieved for the investigated soil horizons typical of an ash-fall pyroclastic succession. The obtained relation turns out to be helpful in characterizing soils up to close saturation, which is a critical condition for the trigger of slope failure. In such a regime, the water content and the matric suction have small variations, while electrical resistivity variations can be appreciated in a larger range of values. For this reason, besides suction measurements on very small soil volumes through classical tensiometers, our analyses suggest the direct monitoring of in situ electrical resistivity values as an effective tool to recognise the hydrological state of larger and more representative soil volumes and to improve early warning of dangerous slope movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the estimation of both individual and societal risks owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy) thanks to the availability of an extensive catalogue of historical incident data spanning from the 5th century up to now. Individual risk is estimated by computing the landslide mortality rate. Societal risk is measured by plotting the annual frequency F of events causing N or more fatalities against the number N of fatalities (i.e. an F-N curve). The results obtained show that in Campania both individual and societal risks owing to landslides are very high when compared to similar risks of the Italian territory. Moreover, the analysis of the incident data clearly highlights the most prone areas to catastrophic events, essentially related to the occurrence of flow-like fast-moving phenomena, where the societal risk is proved to be one of the highest in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Campania region (southern Italy), sloping pyroclastic surfaces in partially saturated conditions are frequently affected by flow-like landslides and shallow slip. In this context, safeguarding human life is entrusted to early warning systems (EWSs), typically based on empirical precipitation intensity-duration thresholds that may suffer from missed and false alarms. Indeed, the consequences of heavy rainfall depend on the hydraulic conditions in the soil before the rainstorm. If this aspect is neglected, precipitation intensity-duration thresholds can fail. However, although the current hydraulic condition in the soil is a discriminating factor, it is rarely measured and taken into account. In this regard, the present study focuses on the assessment of the role of the groundwater conditions for the initiation of shallow landslides, and it may be the first step towards the implementation of an innovative early warning system. At this aim, a numerical approach to reproduce the current hydraulic condition in the slope is presented. This study is based on the back-analysis of two debris flows that occurred in the Campania region by means of uncoupled hydromechanical numerical modelling. The stratigraphy and hydromechanical characteristics of the soil layers are known due to surveys and investigations carried out at an experimental test site set up a few kilometres from the two debris flows that occurred. The results show that in the slopes examined, the hydraulic state in the soil before landslide triggering was correctly reproduced through an infiltration analysis starting a few months before, in which rainfall recorded on site was imposed as an entering flow at ground level. Moreover, it was shown that the water storage in the entire loose soil cover was an effective indicator of the average hydraulic state of the slope; more than local variables, such as matric suction and water content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides represent a severe geohazard in many countries. The availability of inventories depicting the spatial and temporal distribution of landslides is crucial for assessing landslide susceptibility and risk for territorial planning or investigating landscape evolution. Nevertheless, these inventories are usually affected by limitations due to their nonpublic availability and inhomogeneities in characterization and mapping. Such problems are fully recognizable by the analysis of the multiple landslide inventories of the Campania region, which is one of the Italian regions with the highest exposure to landslide hazard and risk. On this basis, a revised Landslide Inventory of the Campania region (LaICa), resulting from the processing of multiple existing landslide inventories, has been reconstructed. It aims to (i) provide a new geodatabase that is able to overcome issues derived from the coexistence of multiple inventories and (ii) provide a methodological paradigm able to support the reorganization of existing official inventories. The implication of LaICa, with its 83,284 records, will possibly improve the assessment of landslide susceptibility and then reassess the related risk. Measurement(s) landslide Technology Type(s) Data Set [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of geological processes threatening people and properties in a populated region should be based on a comprehensive knowledge of historical events and related characteristics. This type of information is essential for predisposing event scenarios, validating prediction models, and planning risk mitigation measures. Such activities may be more complex in some geological settings, where urban settlements are exposed to multi-hazard conditions. This is the case of the densely populated Campi Flegrei volcanic area located in the Campania region, southern Italy. Here, volcanic and seismic hazards are associated with landslides, floods, and coastal erosion, which are playing a relevant role in the landscape modification. The CAmpi Flegrei LAndslide Geodatabase (CAFLAG), here presented, provides information related to 2302 landslides that occurred in the continental, coastal, and insular sectors of the study area during the 1828–2017 time interval. Data associated with the collected landslide events highlight the characteristics of both landslides and of the affected sites. Most of the cataloged mass movements consist of rock falls affecting rocky slopes formed by lithified volcanic rocks, such as tuff or ignimbrite. In addition, rainfall-induced earth and debris slides translating into debris avalanches or rapid flows are widespread along steep slopes mantled by weakly welded pyroclastic airfall deposits, similarly to other areas of the region. The highest density of landslides is concentrated along the coastline, where mass movements are contributing to the retreat of coastal cliffs, and along inland slopes exposed towards the western directions, where most of the storm systems come from. Temporal information shows peaks of landslides in the years 1986, 1997, and 2005. A total of 127 people lost their lives as a consequence of 53 cataloged landslides, with a frequency of deadly events observed however to have decreased since the early 1980s. This information will be useful to analyze mortality and risk conditions still affecting the population of the Campi Flegrei caldera, which should be fully addressed with advanced knowledge and accurate scenarios. The full database is freely available online at 10.4121/14440757.v2 (Esposito and Matano, 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Steep slopes covered by loose unsaturated pyroclastic deposits widely dispersed in Campania, Southern Italy, are often subjected to shallow landslides that turn into fast debris flows causing a large amount of damage and many casualties, triggered by heavy and persistent precipitation. The slope of Cervinara, located around 40 km northeast of Naples, was involved in a destructive flowslide between 15 and 16 December 1999, triggered by a rain event of 325 mm in 48 h. Hydrometeorological monitoring activities have been carried out near the landslide scarp of 1999 since 2017 to assess the water balance and to identify major hydrological processes involving the cover and the shallow groundwater system developing in the upper part of the underlying limestone fractured bedrock. Since 1 December 2022, a remotely accessible low-cost network has been installed to expand the field hydrological monitoring. The use of a network of low-cost capacitive sensors, communicating within the domain of Internet of Things (IoT) technology, aiming at dispersed monitoring of soil moisture, has been tested. Specifically, the tested prototype network allows measurements of the soil water content at two different points, communicating through a Wi-Fi-based IoT system using ESP32 boards. The ThingSpeakTM IoT platform has been used for remote field data visualization. Based on the obtained results, the prototype of this IoT-based low-cost network shows the potential to expand the amount of hydrological data, suitable for setting up early warning systems in landslide-prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pyroclastic soils are widespread in the world. In particular, they cover a great part of Campania, a densely populated country of Southern Italy, where some distinct volcanic centers are present. In these soils, precipitations can trigger fast flow-like landslides causing destruction and loss of human lives. The movement style, the high velocity and the long run-out of these landslides are an indication of the occurrence, in the saturated soil mass, of mechanisms of undrained instability due to the inability of soil to sustain the deviator stress related to the slope condition. This paper reports the results of a wide experimental laboratory program carried out on a volcanic ash, which recently has been the seat of a killer landslide, stressing the factors that govern the undrained response of these materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study addresses the pattern distribution of recent landslides in Italy. The main objective is the detection and mapping of spatio-temporal clusters of landslides that occurred in the period 2010–2017 in the country. To this aim, a subdivision of the national area into 158 warning zones, as identified by the 21 civil protection regional centres to deal with weather-induced hydro-geological hazards, is adopted. Information on landslides comes from FraneItalia, a geo-referenced catalogue developed consulting online news sources. Analyses are performed both at national scale and at a regional scale, focusing on the Campania region. The space–time permutation scan statistics model is applied to detect statistically significant clustering, accounting for the geographical spatial dimension and for the temporal dimension. Two types of analyses are performed: annual, considering each single year; and multi-annual, encompassing the entire 8-year study period. In both cases, spatio-temporal cluster analyses are able to detect areas and frame-periods characterised by relevant and recurrent landslide activity. Finally, the obtained results are compared with a standard landslide density map, highlighting the complementarity of the two approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present work is focused on investigating the potential role of capillary barriers on the stability of layered soil deposits laying upon high permeability steep slopes. In presence of capillary barrier effects, often possible on a soil stratigraphy characterized by contrasting hydraulic properties (pyroclastics deposit over pumices, silt upon fractured bedrock, silt over sand) failure might originate in less permeable layers, where unsaturated conditions might provide a crucial contribution to stability. Basic ideas and considerations have been drawn from a peculiar case study, the catastrophic landslide occurred in Campania, Southern Italy, on May 1998, which is discussed in this paper from a different perspective. The areal extent of failures’ distribution, their dense concentration at the steeper and higher slopes, the extremely high number of initial failures occurred within a relatively short time span suggest that the intimate cause of the event is related at some extent to the soil state characteristic parameters rather than positive pore pressure pulses from water circulation in coarser layers or groundwater level rising from bedrock and springs. A widespread loss of soil strength related to saturation can contribute to explain such phenomena. Capillary barrier effects favor accumulation and lateral distribution of percolating rainfall and possibly divert flowlines downslope, thus leading to localized increases in water content and loss of strength. Diversion of percolating waters facilitates lateral redistribution of soil moisture along the slope with possible further localized saturation, because more permeable layers may act temporarily as barriers and not as drains, as one could expect. Numerical 2-D infiltration models with parameters calibrated versus laboratory data show a relevant influence of capillary barrier effects on infiltration in layered slopes with vertically stratified variations of hydraulic properties and point out significant localized moisture accumulation with possible consequences on slope stability. Landslide initiation phenomena in layered covers might thus be conditioned by the increase in saturation within the least permeable soil layers due to capillary barrier phenomena. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Shallow flowslides, debris flows and debris avalanches are rainfall-induced landslides consisting in the shear failure of few metres of soils (or in some cases even less than a metre), which greatly increase downslope in volume and flow velocity. The southern Italian region of Campania has been historically affected by such events involving pyroclastic soils mainly resting on steep carbonate slopes. This paper deals with the analysis of factors influencing the occurrence of flow-like landslides, adopting the Lattari Mts. in Campania as a case study. The results of two investigation campaigns carried out in the area allowed effective large-scale geological and geotechnical characterization to be set up. Stratigraphic profiles, mean physical properties and typical friction angles at the critical state for each soil layer were investigated. The effect of suction on peak and critical shear strength, whose drop is responsible for soil failure, was analysed. Using detailed information on both the stratigraphic and geotechnical features of the soils involved in past flow-like landslides, typical triggering models were selected, representing locally recurrent geomorphologic conditions at the basin scale. The identified models were adopted for slope stability analyses carried out on four cross-sections of flowslides occurring prior to the event, to back-analyse the triggering conditions. From the evidence on the triggering mechanisms and the results of analyses, the infinite slope approach is not always suitable to model slope stability conditions properly, because the onset of landslides is also affected by local topographic and stratigraphic factors. • Flow-like landslides can be triggered due to local features. • Local topographic irregularities can be represented by roads, tracks, scarps and terraces. • Infinite slope model can be suitable to model only slopes characterized by angles higher than 39–40°. • Local natural and anthropic factors can affect the results of slope stability analysis. • The triggered landslides occurred when the 3-months precedent rainfall exceeded the 40 years average value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies on flow-type landslides in pyroclastic deposits have been performed to identify potential source areas and the main depositional mechanisms. Interesting methods for mapping landslide susceptibility have also been proposed. Since the potential volume of flow-type landslides is a measure of event magnitude, hence of considerable use in hazard assessment, we propose a method to estimate the potential volume for the morphometric analysis of 213 flow-like landslides occurred in Campania in recent centuries. First, our data show that the height, H, of the detachment and erosion-transport zones (i.e. the difference in height between the top of source area and a point, the first break at the foot of the slope, where the deposition stars to take place and the landslide loses velocity) and the area, A, of the same zones are linked by a mathematical function. Secondly, only part of the entire thickness of the pyroclastic material on the slope is involved. To define the potential volumes of the flow-type landslides, we analysed slopes, both in volcanic and carbonatic contexts, considering both channelled and unchannelled flow-type landslides. The most susceptible areas are identified by using a landslide-triggering susceptibility map, and then in each case the height H was estimated. This height is the difference in level between the point on the slope with highest susceptibility and the first break at the foot of the slope. Using the statistical correlation between H and A, both calculated for historical landslides, we evaluate the area of a potential landslide on a slope. Finally, potential volumes are calculated by using A and a constant thickness of the pyroclastic cover for the whole slope. This method could represent a useful tool to detect the main areas where risk mitigation works are required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Campanian Apennines are characterized by the presence of monocline ridges, mainly formed by limestone. During the periods of volcanic activity of the Somma-Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields, the ridges were mantled with pyroclastic materials in varying thickness. The pyroclastics have been involved in destructive landslides both in historical time and in the recent past (1997, 1998, 1999). The landslides occur following intense and prolonged rainfalls. In some cases, landslides extended up to 4 km into the surrounding lowlands and reached towns, causing severe destruction and over 200 deaths. Generally, the landslides begin as small debris slides that develop into large, shallow debris avalanches or debris flows involving pyroclastic horizons and colluvial soils (0.5–2 m thick) on steep and vegetated slopes, often at the heads of gullies. During motion, the landslide materials eroded vegetation and soils from the slope, so that the moving material volume tended to increase. Then, proceeding towards and beyond the base of the slopes, the phenomena evolved into hyperconcentrated streamflow due to dilution by incorporating water. The results of motion analyses are described. An empirical rheological relationship was used including two principal terms that depend on the total normal stress and on the flow velocity. On this basis, the model has simulated the velocity and duration of debris avalanches and the distribution of the deposits. The selected areas were those of Sarno/Quindici and Cervinara, where a large amount of data is available both on the material properties and geomorphological setting. It was found that the majority of the cases at the two sites can be simulated successfully with only one specific pair of rheologic parameters. This provides the possibility for first-order predictions to be made of the motion of future landslides. Such predictions will be a valuable tool for outlining potential hazard areas and designing remedial measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many mountainous areas in Campania, Southern Italy, are characterized by steep slopes covered by loose unsaturated pyroclastic deposits laying upon fractured limestone bedrock. The soil covers are mainly constituted by layers of ashes and pumices. Large and intense rainfall events trigger shallow landslides, often turning into debris flows that cause huge damage and casualties. The slope of Cervinara, around 40 km Northeast of Naples, was involved in a catastrophic flowslide on 16 December 1999, triggered by a rainstorm of 325 mm in 48 h. To capture the main effects of precipitation on the slope stability, hydro-meteorological monitoring activities have been carried out at the slope to assess the water balance for three years (2017–2020). The field monitoring data allowed the identification of the complex hydrological processes involving the unsaturated pyroclastic soil and the shallow groundwater system developing in the limestone bedrock, which control the conditions that potentially predispose the slope to landslide triggering. Specifically, late autumn has been identified as the potentially most critical period, when slope drainage processes are not yet effective, and soil covers already receive large amounts of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the 4th and 5th of March 2005, about 100 rainfall-induced landslides occurred along volcanic slopes of Camaldoli Hill in Naples, Italy. These started as soil slips in the upper substratum of incoherent and welded volcaniclastic deposits, then evolved downslope according to debris avalanche and debris flow mechanisms. This specific case of slope instability on complex volcaniclastic deposits remains poorly characterized and understood, although similar shallow landsliding phenomena have largely been studied in other peri-volcanic areas of the Campania region underlain by carbonate bedrock. Considering the landslide hazard in this urbanized area, this study focused on quantitatively advancing the understanding of the predisposing factors and hydrological conditions contributing to the initial landslide triggering. Borehole drilling, trial pits, dynamic penetrometer tests, topographic surveys, and infiltration tests were conducted on a slope sector of Camaldoli Hill to develop a geological framework model. Undisturbed soil samples were collected for laboratory testing to further characterize hydraulic and geotechnical properties of the soil units identified. In situ soil pressure head monitoring probes were also installed. A numerical model of two-dimensional variably saturated subsurface water flow was parameterized for the monitored hillslope using field and laboratory data. Based on the observed soil pressure head dynamics, the model was calibrated by adjusting the evapotranspiration parameters. This physically based hydrologic model was combined with an infinite-slope stability analysis to reconstruct the critical unsaturated/saturated conditions leading to slope failure. This coupled hydromechanical numerical model was then used to determine intensity–duration (I-D) thresholds for landslide initiation over a range of plausible rainfall intensities and topographic slope angles for the region. The proposed approach can be conceived as a practicable method for defining a warning criterion in urbanized areas threatened by rainfall-induced shallow landslides, given the unavailability of a consistent inventory of past landslide events that prevents a rigorous empirical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]