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Catastrophic landslides characterized by runaway slope failures remain difficult to predict. Here, we develop a physics‐based framework to prospectively assess slope failure potential. Our method builds upon the physics of extreme events in natural systems: the extremes so‐called "dragon‐kings" (e.g., slope tertiary creeps prior to failure) exhibit statistically different properties than other smaller‐sized events (e.g., slope secondary creeps). We develop statistical tools to detect the emergence of dragon‐kings during landslide evolution, with the secondary‐to‐tertiary creep transition quantitatively captured. We construct a phase diagram characterizing the detectability of dragon‐kings against "black‐swans" and informing on whether the slope evolves toward a catastrophic or slow landslide. We test our method on synthetic and real data sets, demonstrating how it might have been used to forecast three representative historical landslides. Our method can in principle considerably reduce the number of false alarms and identify with high confidence the presence of true hazards of catastrophic landslides. Plain Language Summary: Catastrophic slope failures that pose great threats to life and property remain difficult to predict due to the strong variability of slope behavior. As a result, only a limited number of large rock slope failures have been so far successfully forecasted with associated risks mitigated. Here, we propose a novel predictive framework to prospectively and quantitatively detect slope failure precursors with high confidence. Our research sheds light on one of the most challenging questions in landslide prediction: Would an active landslide slowly move or catastrophically fail in the future? Our method adds a new conceptual framework and operational methodology with a significant potential to support existing early warning systems and hence reduce landslide risks. Key Points: Tertiary creeps of catastrophic landslides accommodate dragon‐kings showing statistically different properties than secondary slope creepsA predictive framework is developed to forecast catastrophic landslides by detecting signatures typical of the emergence of dragon‐kingsA phase diagram characterizes the detectability of dragon‐kings against black‐swans and discriminates catastrophic and slow landslides [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rock slope failures often result from progressive rock mass damage which accumulates over long timescales. In deglaciating environments, rock slopes are affected by stress perturbations driven by mechanical unloading due to ice downwasting and concurrent changes in thermal and hydraulic boundary conditions. Since in‐situ data are rare, the different processes and their relative contribution to slope damage remain poorly understood. Here, we analyze borehole monitoring data from a rock slope adjacent to the retreating Great Aletsch Glacier (Switzerland) and compare it to englacial water levels, climate data, and decreasing ice levels. Rock slope pore pressures show a seasonal signal controlled by infiltration events as well as effects from the connectivity to the englacial hydrological system. We find that reversible and irreversible strains are driven by: (a) hydromechanical effects caused by englacial pressure fluctuations and infiltration events, (b) stress transfer related to changing mechanical glacial loads from short‐term englacial water level fluctuations and longer term ice downwasting, and (c) thermomechanical effects from annual temperature cycles penetrating the shallow subsurface, which primarily result in reversible deformation. We relate most observed irreversible strain (damage) to mechanical unloading from ice downwasting. Damage is strongest directly at the ice margin and moves through the slope at the pace of glacial retreat and advance. Locations with many retreat/advance cycles are very sensitive to landslide formation. The current climate warming impacts very sensitive valley sectors, which is confirmed by landslide distributions and activity in the study area. Plain Language Summary: The formation of rock slope instabilities is a long‐term process related to continuous rock mass weakening. For rock slopes in glaciated valleys, increased rates of rock mass damage are assumed to occur during ice retreat due to a reduction of the glacier weight and concurrent changes in rock temperatures and slope groundwater pressures. However, because direct field measurements are missing, governing processes and their relative importance are still poorly understood. Here, we analyze borehole monitoring data and compare it to englacial water levels, climate data, and decreasing ice levels. We find that the glacial hydrology influences the dynamics of the groundwater pressures in the adjacent rock slope at various timescales. We record micrometer‐scale reversible (elastic) deformation and irreversible rock mass damage and identify the involved drivers. Several processes contribute to progressive rock mass weakening at different timescales and magnitudes, but most damage is related to mechanical unloading from ice downwasting and is strongest directly at the ice margin. Locations with many retreat/advance cycles are sensitive to increased damage accumulation and landslide formation. The current climate warming impacts very sensitive valley sectors, which is confirmed by landslide distributions and activity in the study area. Key Points: We monitored subsurface pore pressures and micrometer scale strain in a rock slope during strong glacial retreat caused by climate warmingWe identified thermo‐hydro‐mechanical drivers for reversible deformation and irreversible rock mass damage acting at various timescalesSlope damage intensity can be related to landslide spatial and temporal distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding landslide behavior over medium and long timescales is crucial for predicting landslide hazard and constructing accurate landscape evolution models. The behavior of landslides in soil that undergo periodic displacements, termed earthflows or compound soil slides, is especially difficult to forecast at these timescales. This is because velocities can increase by orders of magnitude over annual to decadal timescales, due to processes such as changing recharge conditions, erosion of the landslide toe, and retrogression of the landslide head. In this paper, we provide a detailed analysis of the Schlucher landslide, an unusual earthflow that is perched above the village of Malbun, Liechtenstein. This landslide had been displacing by 10 to 20 cm/year until 2015, when displacements on the order of 2 m/year occurred from 2016 to 2018. These large displacements damaged landslide mitigation measures, caused numerous surface deformation features, and threatened the local population downstream of the earthflow. This landslide has an unusually long monitoring record, with accurate displacement and climatic data available since 1983. We analyze this nearly 40-year monitoring time series to estimate recharge from snowmelt and rainfall, and its correlation with displacement. We also analyze recently collected, high-resolution surface and subsurface data in order to understand landslide response to recharge, landslide kinematics through time, and catastrophic failure potential. We find that interannual displacements can be explained with variations in recharge; however, periodic surges with recurrence times of tens of years must be explained by other mechanisms. In particular, recharge into the landslide during the recent acceleration (2016 to 2018) was not anomalously high. Instead, we argue that loss of internal strength is responsible for this recent acceleration period, and that this mechanism should be considered when forecasting the surge potential for certain earthflows and soil slides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid mapping of event landslides is crucial to identify the areas affected by damages as well as for effective disaster response. Traditionally, such maps are generated with visual interpretation of remote sensing imagery (manned/unmanned airborne systems or spaceborne sensors) and/or using pixel-based and object-based methods exploiting data-intensive machine learning algorithms. Recent works have explored the use of convolutional neural networks (CNN), a deep learning algorithm, for mapping landslides from remote sensing data. These methods follow a standard supervised learning workflow that involves training a model using a landslide inventory covering a relatively small area. The trained model is then used to predict landslides in the surrounding regions. Here, we propose a new strategy, i.e., a progressive CNN training relying on combined inventories to build a generalized model that can be applied directly to a new, unexplored area. We first prove the effectiveness of CNNs by training and validating on event landslides inventories in four regions after earthquakes and/or extreme meteorological events. Next, we use the trained CNNs to map landslides triggered by new events spread across different geographic regions. We found that CNNs trained on a combination of inventories have a better generalization performance, with a bias towards high precision and low recall scores. In our tests, the combined training model achieved the highest (Matthews correlation coefficient) MCC score of 0.69 when mapping landslides in new unseen regions. The mapping was done on images from different optical sensors, resampled to a spatial resolution of 6 m, 10 m, and 30 m. Despite a slightly reduced performance, the main advantage of combined training is to overcome the requirement of a local inventory for training a new deep learning model. This implementation can facilitate automated pipelines providing fast response for the generation of landslide maps in the post-disaster phase. In this study, the study areas were selected from seismically active zones with a high hydrological hazard distribution and vegetation coverage. Hence, future works should also include regions from less vegetated geographic locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subglacial water pressures influence groundwater conditions in proximal alpine valley rock slopes, varying with glacier advance and retreat in parallel with changing ice thickness. Fluctuating groundwater pressures in turn increase or reduce effective joint normal stresses, affecting the yield strength of discontinuities. Here we extend simplified assumptions of glacial debuttressing to investigate how glacier loading cycles together with changing groundwater pressures generate rock slope damage and prepare future slope instabilities. Using hydromechanical coupled numerical models closely based on the Aletsch Glacier valley in Switzerland, we simulate Late Pleistocene and Holocene glacier loading cycles including long‐term and annual groundwater fluctuations. Measurements of transient subglacial water pressures from ice boreholes in the Aletsch Glacier ablation area, as well as continuous monitoring of bedrock deformation from permanent Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations, help verify our model assumptions. While purely mechanical glacier loading cycles create only limited rock slope damage in our models, introducing a fluctuating groundwater table generates substantial new fracturing. Superposed annual groundwater cycles increase predicted damage. The cumulative effects are capable of destabilizing the eastern valley flank of our model in toppling‐mode failure, similar to field observations of active landslide geometry and kinematics. We find that hydromechanical fatigue is most effective acting in combination with long‐term loading and unloading of the slope during glacial cycles. Our results demonstrate that hydromechanical stresses associated with glacial cycles are capable of generating substantial rock slope damage and represent a key preparatory factor for paraglacial slope instabilities. Plain Language Summary: Glacial melt produces large amounts of water keeping water pressures at the base of alpine glaciers high. This meltwater in turn influences the groundwater table in adjacent valley flanks. Water seeps into the subsurface through joints and faults reducing the strength of these discontinuities. In a glaciated alpine valley, the position of the glacier changes over time and the groundwater table changes in accordance. Meanwhile, seasonal infiltration from snowmelt raises and lowers the water table in valley flanks, creating measureable movements. These changes in groundwater can alter the strength of a rock mass and together with the changing ice load generate damage in the floors and walls of alpine valleys. This damage helps prepare future slope instabilities, creating fractures that may ultimately define a landslide failure surface. We present new data and models from the Great Aletsch Glacier in Switzerland exploring our hypothesis that groundwater‐glacier coupled interactions are an important mechanism generating damage in alpine valley rock slopes. Our results show that higher water pressures reduce the strength of rock discontinuities and can result in failure, especially as glaciers retreat. This mechanism is an important part of the strength and stress changes in valley slopes that accompany glacial cycles. Key Points: Subglacial water pressures in ablation areas are high and vary with ice thickness, affecting the groundwater table in adjacent valley flanksIncreasing groundwater pressure during glacier advance reduces effective stresses in joints, partly offsetting the increased ice loadHydromechanical coupled stresses during glacial cycles create and propagate fractures in rock slopes, preparing future instabilities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use multitemporal analyses based on Synthetic Aperture Radar differential interferometry (DInSAR) to study the slope adjacent to the large Punatsangchhu-I hydropower plant, a concrete gravity dam under construction in Bhutan since 2009. Several slope failures affected the site since 2013, probably as a consequence of toe undercutting of a previously unrecognised active landslide. Our results indicate that downslope displacement, likely related to the natural instability, was already visible in 2007 on various sectors of the entire valley flank. Moreover, the area with active displacements impinging on the dam site has continuously increased in size since 2007 and into 2018, even though stabilization measures have been implemented since 2013. Stabilisation measures currently only focus on a small portion of the slope, however, the unstable area is larger than previously evaluated. Highly damaged rock is present across many areas of the entire valley flank, indicating that the volumes involved may be orders of magnitude higher than the area on which stabilisation efforts have been concentrated after the 2013 failure. The results highlight that satellite-based DInSAR could be systematically used to support decision making processes in the different phases of a complex hydropower project, from the feasibility study, to the dam site selection and construction phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a detailed analysis of a dramatic rock slope acceleration that occurred in fall 2016 at the Moosfluh Landslide, located at the glacier tongue of the Great Aletsch Glacier (Switzerland). The acceleration that occurred in 2016 was unanticipated and exposed the valley bottom and an adjacent damned lake to high risk. This acceleration occurred in an active deep‐seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) controlled primarily by deep block‐flexural toppling. In 2013, a highly accurate displacement monitoring system was developed and installed in the surroundings of the Great Aletsch Glacier, including a time‐lapse camera, GNSS, and robotic total stations. This monitoring system provided unique data during the 2016 slope acceleration which are used in this study to assess failure mechanisms, landslide volumes, and subsurface displacement geometry. Based on a novel displacement vector analysis, we find that three retrogressive secondary rockslides developed during the first six weeks of the slope acceleration, with rupture surface depths of 30 to 40 m, and estimated volumes between 1 and 4 Mm3. These rockslides display complex deformation features, including head and lateral scarps, which developed during the slope acceleration. The kinematics of these secondary rockslides changed through time, from primarily toppling to combined toppling and sliding. Our results provide a uniquely detailed understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of deformation features and movement kinematics that occur when several sectors of a slowly moving DSGSD transitions into rapid rockslides. Plain Language Summary: The slow moving (~30 cm per year) deep‐seated (up to 170‐m depth) landslide of Moosfluh experienced a substantial acceleration of slope movement in September 2016. A comprehensive monitoring system recorded that several compartments in the center of the Moosfluh Landslide suddenly started to move rapidly with velocities of up to several meters per week. This caused a strong modification of the slope surface morphology and structure which is documented in detail in this study. Based on monitored changes in the directions of slope movement over time, a new method was developed to interpret subsurface movement types and geometries. With this method we found that on top of the Moosfluh deep‐seated landslide several shallow (30–40 m) rockslides developed during the Moosfluh slope acceleration in 2016. We are able to assign depths and inclinations of the failure surfaces and failure mechanisms. In this case the deep‐seated landslide is formed by rotation (toppling) of steep rock columns, whereas the shallow secondary rockslides within the deep‐seated landslide show sliding movements along planar rupture planes and mixtures of both sliding and toppling. Key Points: The rapid formation of 3 secondary rockslides within a toppling mode DSGSD (Moosfluh, CH) is monitored with DIC from webcam images, aerial photogrammetry and total station monitoringThis transition corresponds to an acceleration of the landslide from a few dm/a to 50 m/a in the lowermost sectors of the instabilityA novel method developed to interpret total station reflector data revealed a change in landslide kinematics (toppling, sliding) through time [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Large catastrophic rock slope failures are difficult to predict because the underlying mechanisms causing slope accelerations are difficult to study under in-situ conditions. For slope failures with compound basal rupture planes, not only fracture propagation and slip in the basal rupture surface, but also within the landslide body control the displacement evolution and time-to-failure. The Preonzo instability complex in southern Switzerland failed several times since 2002 and offers a unique opportunity to study these mechanisms under in-situ conditions. The largest failure at Preonzo occurred in May 2012 and was conditioned by large slope parallel (NN E -SSW) fracture zones, which are intersected by NE and SW and E-W striking faults creating diverging lateral boundaries. Whereas in the head scarp region oblique and flexural toppling along pre-existing fracture sets is the prevailing mechanism, sliding of either planar or wedge type is the preferred kinematic mode facilitated by the new discontinuities developed within the basal rupture surfaces. These dominating mechanisms, leading to a classical rock slope collapse, could only be revealed in retrospect. We compare fracture patterns in stable ground (tectonic and unloading fractures) with new fractures related to rock slope failure observed on basal rupture surfaces and in the head scarp. Simplified mechanical and kinematic analyses show that old pre-existing tectonic fractures cannot accommodate substantial deformations under the in-situ stress conditions and propagate/connect through curved wing cracks forming at high angles. This situation favors the development of new nearly slope parallel fractures, which are interpreted as synthetic P-shears along localized shear zones. Fractographic markings on these fractures indicate a continuous and relatively fast formation, which presumably has taken place during a period of about 60 years prior to catastrophic failure. This detailed description of the multi-stage evolution of slope failure at Preonzo represents a unique data set for future numerical studies of progressive failure in crystalline rocks. Highlights • Structural evolution of retrogressive failures with fracture orientation change • Interplay of pre-existing fractures and progressive failure in basal rupture planes • Multi-stage kinematic analyses reveal change in kinematics of a retrogressive slope • Possible analogies of tectonic shear zones with fracture reactivation + propagation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Correction to: I Scientific Reports i https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89015-8, published online 06 May 2021 The original version of this Article contained an error in Table 1, where the formula given for the MCC score was incorrect. [Extracted from the article]

Investigating surface displacements in high alpine environments is often subject to challenges due to the difficult accessibility or harsh climatic conditions. Measurement systems have improved greatly in recent years regarding accuracy, range, or energy consumption. Continuously receiving high-precision, real-time monitoring data from a remote location can still support a better understanding of slope dynamics and risk. We present the design, construction, operation, and performance of a complex surface displacement monitoring system installed in the surroundings of the Great Aletsch Glacier in the Swiss Alps, based on two robotic total stations to continuously measure 3D displacements with high accuracies. In addition, GNSS stations are also considered in order to pass from a local to a geographic reference system, as well as to improve the measurement accuracy. The monitoring network is aimed at studying several types of deformation processes, i.e., (i) gravitationally driven and irreversible rockslide movements around the tongue of the Great Aletsch Glacier, (ii) reversible rock slope deformations caused by annual cycles of groundwater recharge and depletion, and (iii) small irreversible deformations of stable rock slopes resulting from progressive rock damage driven by glacier retreat and cyclic hydraulic and thermal loading. We describe the technical details of the monitoring system, which has been in operation successfully for 6 years, and discuss the system performance in terms of its robustness and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rock slopes next to the tongue of the Great Aletsch Glacier, Switzerland are characterized by rapid environmental adjustment to non-glacial conditions. This study investigates and describes in detail the historic development of the largest rock slope instability in this area, called Moosfluh Landslide. We study in detail the structure, evolution and stability since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) until September 2016 and discuss their relationships with the evolution of the Great Aletsch Glacier since the Lateglacial period. In 2016 around 50 m of glacial ice thickness were left at the Moosfluh Landslide toe, where in 1850 glacial ice was >400 m thick. The changing stability conditions at the interface with the melting valley glacier are studied based on novel balanced cross sections and kinematic model of the Moosfluh Landslide dominated by toppling phenomena in metamorphic rock. The morphology and evolution of this landslide since the LIA are investigated with multi-temporal landslide maps based on aerial digital photogrammetry (ADP) applied to historic images since 1961. Internal deformation at Moosfluh is accommodated by shear slip along uphill-facing foliation and fault planes, and by extensional faulting forming tension cracks and graben-structures at the landslide head. Together with Digital Image Correlation (DIC) and total station monitoring (TPS) the Moosfluh Landslide displacement history was reconstructed, evidencing post-Egesen landslide displacements and an acceleration of movements since the LIA and especially since 2007. The displacement rates increase from few mm per year until the nineties to several meter per day in September 2016. Different kinematic models have been tested and changes in the Moosfluh rock slope stability in response to retreating glacial ice and changing groundwater conditions was explored with limit-equilibrium analysis of the stepped planar block toppling model of Goodman and Bray (1976). For the observed conditions and a toppling joint friction angle of 19° the simulated factor of safety drops non-linearly from the LIA maximum (1.12) to the year 2007 (1.02), when the height of ice above the valley bottom melted down to 100 m. This study illustrates with unprecedented detail the time scales, displacement magnitudes and structural evolutions of a large toppling mode slope instability in a paraglacial setting. The long-term cumulative slope displacements between the Egesen stadial and the LIA are of the same magnitude as the cumulative displacements between the LIA and the year 2016. As large portions of the studied slope underwent multiple retreats and advances of the Great Aletsch Glacier during the Lateglacial and Postglacial period, the observed onset of large slope displacements should be related to incremental damage (slip weakening and weathering) occurring along steeply dipping toppling fractures during the LIA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mapping landslides using automated methods is a challenging task, which is still largely done using human efforts. Today, the availability of high-resolution EO data products is increasing exponentially, and one of the targets is to exploit this data source for the rapid generation of landslide inventory. Conventional methods like pixel-based and object-based machine learning strategies have been studied extensively in the last decade. In addition, recent advances in CNN (convolutional neural network), a type of deep-learning method, has been widely successful in extracting information from images and have outperformed other conventional learning methods. In the last few years, there have been only a few attempts to adapt CNN for landslide mapping. In this study, we introduce a modified U-Net model for semantic segmentation of landslides at a regional scale from EO data using ResNet34 blocks for feature extraction. We also compare this with conventional pixel-based and object-based methods. The experiment was done in Douglas County, a study area selected in the south of Portland in Oregon, USA, and landslide inventory extracted from SLIDO (Statewide Landslide Information Database of Oregon) was considered as the ground truth. Landslide mapping is an imbalanced learning problem with very limited availability of training data. Our network was trained on a combination of focal Tversky loss and cross-entropy loss functions using augmented image tiles sampled from a selected training area. The deep-learning method was observed to have a better performance than the conventional methods with an MCC (Matthews correlation coefficient) score of 0.495 and a POD (probability of detection) rate of 0.72 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We performed an extensive analysis of C-band SAR datasets provided by the European Space Agency (ESA) satellites ERS-1/2, Envisat ASAR, and Sentinel-1 in the period 1992–2020 aiming at reconstructing the multi-decadal spatial and temporal evolution of the surface displacements at the Brienz/Brinzauls landslide complex, located in canton Graubünden (Switzerland). To this end, we analyzed about 1000 SAR images by applying differential interferometry (InSAR), multitemporal stacking, and persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) approaches. Moreover, we jointly considered digital image correlation (DIC) on high-resolution multi-temporal digital terrain models (DTM) generated from airborne surveys and InSAR results to compute 3-D surface deformation fields. The extensive network of GNSS stations across the Brienz landslide complex allowed us to extensively validate the deformation results obtained in our remote sensing analyses. Here, we illustrate the limitations occurring when relying on InSAR and/or PSI measurements for the analysis and interpretation of complex landslide scenarios, especially in cases of relevant spatial and temporal heterogeneities of the deformation field. The joint use of InSAR and DIC can deliver a better picture of the evolution of the deformation field, however, not for all displacement components. Since InSAR, PSI and DIC measurements are nowadays routinely used in the framework of local investigations, as well as in regional, national, and/or continental monitoring programs, our results are of major importance for users aiming at a comprehensive understanding of these datasets in landslide scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extremely-rapid, flowlike landslides can impact people and property far from their source, and predicting the initiation and runout of these events remains a challenging task. The ongoing risk analysis of the Schlucher Landslide, located near the town of Malbun, Liechtenstein, highlights the uncertainties associated with this type of analysis. This landslide, composed of clayey sand and clayey gravel, has accumulated 10s of meters of displacement in the last 3 years. Managing the risk posed by this unstable colluvial mass requires addressing the following questions: Can the Schlucher Landslide transition into an extremely-rapid flowlike landslide? If such a transition were to occur, what would be the consequence for the community located at the outflow of the Schlucher Catchment?Addressing these questions requires an understanding of potential mechanisms that can lead to catastrophic failure of the unstable mass. A number of mechanisms, including static and dynamic liquefaction, loss of true and/or apparent cohesion and shearing to residual strength have been well documented in literature, and can be identified by routine geotechnical analyses. The focus of this work is on macroscopic brittleness, a poorly understood mechanism that may have governed the failure of a number of well documented case histories that were composed of fine grained colluvium, similar to the Schlucher Landslide. Here we present detailed field observations and 3D numerical runout modelling of three extremely-rapid, flowlike landslides that occurred in fine grained colluvium: The 2014 Oso Flowslide, the 2012 Johnsons Landing Landslide and the 1973 Attachie Slide. These analyses reveal that the catastrophic runout of all three cases can be explained by the landslide debris undergoing a large, undrained strength loss. The potential for this mechanism to occur at these sites would have been difficult to identify by conventional geotechnical analyses. We then compare surface and subsurface data obtained for the Schlucher Landslide to these three cases to qualitatively assess the potential that this landslide could experience a similar undrained strength loss. The results of this work have significant implications for understanding catastrophic failure potential of fine grained colluvium, and highlight the need for further research on the mechanism of macroscopic brittleness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is based on detailed monitoring data from a large DSGSD called Moosfluh instability, located at the current glacier tongue of the Great Aletsch Glacier (Switzerland). This about 100 Mm³ large, and up to 170 m deep toppling mode instability started to accelerate around 1990, presumably caused by increased rates of glacier ice downwasting at the landslide toe. In 2013 and 2014, when average velocities reached about 500-700 mm/a, we installed a high accuracy displacement monitoring system, composed of 2 robotized total stations measuring displacements at about 15 reflectors positioned within the active landslide, 4 GNSS stations, and 2 Time-Lapse cameras. In the fall of 2016 a dramatic increase in acceleration occurred, leading to velocities of individual landslide compartments of up to 12 m in 6 weeks. Optical imagery and digital image correlation revealed that this acceleration was caused by the rapid development of three secondary rockslide scarps, and that movement initiated at the toe of the slope and evolved upslope. To investigate the depths of movements and the subsurface kinematic mechanism in detail, we developed a new analytical model, which considers the time series of three-dimensional displacements and plunge angles of discrete points within the landslide. The application of this model leads to the conclusion that a transition from primarily toppling to sliding mode displacements occurred during fall 2016. We can trace the detailed evolution of individual compartments, showing that toppling/sliding ratios varied in both space and time. The secondary rockslides forming during this period have a depth of about 30-40 meters and volumes ranging between 1 and 5 Mm³. Planar sliding surfaces are expected to have developed at a major kink zone within the large toppling rock mass.This kinematic evolution observed at Moosfluh significantly impacts the corresponding hazard and risk assessment, as flexural toppling tends to be a self-stabilizing mechanism, whereas planar rockslides can potentially transition into catastrophic failures. The estimated potential runout length probabilities show that the main hazard would be created by the formation and subsequent breach of a rock avalanche dam in the Massa gorge below the tongue of the Great Aletsch Glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We leverage on optical and radar remote sensing data acquired from the European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinels to monitor the surface deformation evolution on a large and very active instability located in the Swiss Alps, i.e., the Moosfluh rock slope. In the late summer 2016, a sudden acceleration was reported at this location, with surface velocity rates passing from maximum values of 0.2 cm/day to 80 cm/day. A dense pattern of uphill-facing scarps and tension cracks formed within the instability and rock fall activity started to become very pronounced. This evolution of the rock mass may suggest that the most active portion of the slope could fail catastrophically. Here we discuss advantages and limitations of the use of spaceborne methods for hazard analyses and early warning by using the ESA Sentinels, and show that in critical scenarios they are often not sufficient to reliably interpret the evolution of surface deformation. The insights obtained from this case study are relevant for similar scenarios in the Alps and elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work we present a methodology based on remote sensing data to map and classify unstable slopes in high alpine areas and apply this methodology to the Himalaya of northwestern Bhutan. We leverage on radar images acquired by the ESA Envisat and the JAXA ALOS-1 satellites between 2007 and 2011. Synthetic aperture radar differential interferometry (DInSAR) is used to identify and quantify recent ground surface displacements associated with potentially unstable slopes. Optical satellite images and a high-resolution digital surface model is used for the geomorphological classification of individual landforms and deposits associated with displacements. The analysis of the geomorphological characteristics reveals that displacements are associated with: rock slides, mountain slope deformation and rock slope deformation (77.5%), soil creep (4%), soil slides (1.9%) and rock glaciers (12.3%); 4.3% of the detected displacements remain of unknown origin. The method applied here for the assessment of activity likelihood uses a very large number of interferograms obtained with images acquired by different satellites. The method, which is new and replicable, takes advantage of the combination of different acquisition geometries and then combines indices of vegetation cover, layover, velocity estimate and temporal sampling associated with each detected active area to assign a weight. The analysis shows that a cluster of unstable slopes exists in the northwest, potentially related to the presence of an important regional lineament and the distribution of permafrost. Comparatively little ongoing activity is detected in the south, but field validation documents substantial landslide activity in the recent geological past. The dataset here generated, containing 700 potentially unstable areas with an associated activity likelihood, is a novel dataset that makes an essential basis of future analysis to investigate rock slope instability distribution and predisposing factors. Moreover, this dataset represents a new important step towards future landslide hazard assessment in the Himalaya of Bhutan. • 693 previously unknown unstable slopes in NW Bhutan were found with DInSAR • Geomorphological classification revealed that almost 78% are rock slope instabilities • The spatial distribution of potentially unstable slopes in the region is clearly non uniform • Activity of unstable slopes is likely influenced by regional tectonic structures • Unstable slopes seem to be less abundant in the region in recent times than in the past [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Valley glaciers have traditionally been expected to significantly influence the stability and movement rates of adjacent paraglacial landslides. However, detailed studies related to the mechanical and displacement interactions between glacier ice and unstable rock slopes are very rare. Here we present a detailed in-situ investigation of the spatial variations of the displacement field of the Great Aletsch Glacier in the surroundings of a large active instability, i.e., the Moosfluh Landslide, a Deep-Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation, with superimposed large (1–5 million m3) secondary rockslides formed during fall 2016. We performed repeat UAV-based photogrammetric surveys during ~3 days (74 h) and applied Digital Image Correlation techniques to record high-resolution surface displacement vector fields of the landslide, stable slopes and adjacent glacier. Our results show that the secondary rockslide adjacent to the glacier is composed of two parts of 1.5 and 2.8 million m3 volume respectively, showing significant differences in mean displacement velocities (0.4 and 0.9 m in 74 h respectively, excluding rapid movements from detached blocks). Both rockslide compartments induce clear deflections of the glacier flow field, moving with a maximum velocity of about 0.3 to 0.4 m in 74 h. This influence is highest near the ice-contact boundary and decreases within a distance of about 100–200 m from the rock slope instability. We investigate the viscous forces at the landslide/glacier contact using a straightforward analytical model for an incompressible rockslide block sliding along a planar, cohesionless surface into ice. These forces are then applied to a slope stability model based on the limit equilibrium concept, representing the real geometry at the interface boundary to quantitatively explore the true buttressing effects of valley glaciers on an already moving slope instability. We show that the viscous ice deformation plays an important role in mediating the displacement velocities of landslides in unstable conditions, while, on the other hand, the slope support from the valley glacier has very little influence on the stability of the investigated rockslides. As most valley glaciers are currently strongly retreating due to global warming, uncovering significant numbers of pre-LIA slope instabilities, this detailed investigation provides important hints on their potential displacement behavior. Understanding the factors controlling landslide velocity is of great importance for hazard analyses and early warning. Hence, this study has implications beyond academic interest, e.g., for the planning and operation of alpine infrastructure, such as cable cars or hydropower systems. • We monitor glacier displacement fields at contacts to stable slopes and an active rockslide. • Distortions of glacier displacements fields extend over 100-200 m. and correlate with variations in rockslide velocity. • A simplified analytical model with viscous ice forces can reproduce observed rockslide velocities. • Limit equilibrium analyses demonstrate negligible effect of glacial debuttressing on mature rockslide stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]