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URL del artículo en la web de la Revista: https://www.upo.es/revistas/index.php/RevMetCuant/article/view/2375, Se estudian econométricamente los mercados cambiarios y los tipos de cambio de Asia y Latinoamérica. Se utilizan análisis de cambio estructural endógeno y de cointegración y funciones de impulso-respuesta. Los hallazgos indican que: 1) la sincronización de largo plazo de los mercados cambiarios es baja; 2) no hay evidencia de sincronización en los mercados asiáticos; 3) un choque estocástico en un país latinoamericano tiene efectos de mayor magnitud y duración que un choque similar en un país asiático; y 4) no hay evidencia de que la Crisis Financiera Global haya inducido cambios estructurales en las dinámicas de los tipos de cambio. Se usan los tipos de cambio spot diarios de Argentina, Brasil, Chile, China, Colombia, Corea del Sur, India, Malasia, México y Tailandia, para el periodo del 5 de agosto de 2002 al 22 de enero de 2016., The exchange markets and the exchange rates of Asia and Latin America are studied econometrically. Endogenous structural change and cointegration analyzes and impulse-response functions are used. The findings indicate that: 1) the long-term timing of the exchange markets is low; 2) there is no evidence of synchronization in Asian markets; 3) a stochastic shock in a Latin American country has effects of greater magnitude and duration than a similar shock in an Asian country; and 4) there is no evidence that the Global Financial Crisis has induced structural changes in the dynamics of exchange rates. The daily spot exchange rates of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand are used for the period from August 5, 2002 to January 22, 2016., Universidad Pablo de Olavide

RESUMEN En este artículo se evalúan las hipótesis de Fisher y de integración de los mercados latinoamericanos mediante pruebas de cointegración y de cambio estructural endógeno. Los hallazgos sugieren varias conclusiones: a) el efecto Fisher se valida principalmente en Costa Rica; b) el efecto internacional de Fisher se valida débilmente entre Chile y Costa Rica y entre Colombia y México; c) la integración de los países y mercados es heterogénea, y d) únicamente Chile no tuvo cambios estructurales. En el estudio se usan series mensuales de Brasil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, México y Perú durante el periodo comprendido entre enero de 1997 y diciembre de 2014. JEL: G15, F36, C32, C22. ABSTRACT This article evaluates the Fisher hypothesis and the hypothesis of the integration of Latin American markets through co-integration and endogenous structural change tests. The findings suggest a number of conclusions: a) the Fisher effect is validated mainly in Costa Rica; b) the international Fisher effect is validated weakly between Chile and Costa Rica and between Colombia and Mexico; c) the integration of counties and markets is heterogeneous, and d) only Chile did not present structural changes. The study uses monthly series for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru during the January 1997 to December 2014 period. RESUMO Neste artigo, avaliam-se as hipóteses de Fisher e de integração dos mercados latino-americanos mediante testes de cointegração e de mudança estrutural endógena. Os achados sugerem várias conclusões: a) o efeito Fisher é validado principalmente na Costa Rica; b) o efeito internacional de Fisher é validado debilmente entre o Chile e a Costa Rica, e entre a Colômbia e o México; c) a integração dos países e mercados é heterogênea; d) unicamente o Chile não teve mudanças estruturais. Além disso, usam-se séries mensais do Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, Costa Rica, México e do Peru durante o período compreendido entre janeiro de 1997 e dezembro de 2014.

We propose an ARCH model of the TGARCH type with an asymmetric Student's t distribution. It is built using the methodology of Fernandez and Steel (1998) and the traditional TGARCH model developed by Zakoian (1994). The model is used to describe series of stock market returns and to assess the validity of the rationality hypotheses in Latin America. The results suggest that: 1) The series can be described adequately with the proposed model; (2) the Samuelson´s rationality hypothesis is consistent with the evidence of the markets of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico; 3) the traditional rationality hypothesis is consistent with the evidence of Peru; and (4) the volatility estimated with the proposed model are higher than those estimated with the traditional TGARCH model over the period 2008-2009.

We develop a microeconomic model to explain why sanction policies used by developed countries have had ambiguous effects to reduce drug trafficking in developing countries. In the model, a country receives FDI depending on its government effort to reduce drug exports. However, local drug producers lobby and offer contributions whose impact depends on the level of government corruption. The government sets the level of enforcement against drug trafficking taking into account the contributions paid and the welfare of the local habitants. Analytically, we use the common agency theory to justify and explain diverse sanction policy outcomes. We also show evidence about the relationships among drug trafficking, corruption and FDI for some Latin-American countries.

We develop an investigation regarding the determinants of the stock prices in six Latin American emerging markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). We test the traditional Ohlson model and an international version of it. The international model includes the Dow Jones index as an additional explanatory variable. We use time-series and panel-data cointegration methodologies to assess the long-run relationships among the variables postulated by both models. We use quarterly data for the period 2000:01-2010:03. The results suggest that panel-data techniques may be better than time-series ones for the assessments. They support the use of the Ohlson models and, specially, the international one. The variables are significant and have the postulated signs. These results hold when the firms are considered as a whole and for the commercial and construction firms. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the Latin American asset prices are complementary to the US ones in the long run.