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Scenarios of climatic change linked to growth models based on ecophysiological processes may be useful to identify risks of serious consequence on the yield of planted forests, presenting the possibility to lessen the gravity of climatic change impacts and also to assess means of adaptation. The main objective of this paper is to analyze climatic change impacts on eucalyptus yield in Northern of Espirito Santo and Southern Bahia. The climate input data used in the 3-PG growth model were from two scenarios of climatic change (A2 and B2) from global model CCSR/NIES, for three periods of time: 2011 -2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. It was found that future climatic changes are most likely to decrease the eucalyptus yield, reaching a 40% reduction in scenario A2 for the 2071-2100 period and 24% for scenario B2. In spite of global models converging on the possible incremental temperatures, there is still skepticism about the change in precipitation, as well as the change in the frequency of climatic extremes, making it impossible to predict the true magnitude of eucalyptus yield losses.

RESUMO Cenários de mudanças climáticas associados a modelos de crescimento baseados em processos podem ser úteis para identificar os riscos da produtividade futura de florestas plantadas, podendo ser utilizados para mitigar os impactos das mudanças climáticas e avaliar meios de adaptação. Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar os impactos das mudanças climáticas na produtividade futura do eucalipto na região norte do Espírito Santo e sul da Bahia. Os dados de entrada de clima utilizados no modelo de crescimento 3-PG foram dois cenários de mudanças climáticas (A2 e B2) do modelo global CCSR/NIES, para três períodos futuros: 2011-2040, 2041-2070 e 2071-2100. As mudanças futuras no clima provocaram decréscimos na produtividade de eucalipto, chegando apresentar uma redução de até 40% no cenário A2 para o período de 2071-2100 e 24% para o cenário B2. Apesar dos modelos globais convergirem para uma tendência de aumento da temperatura, há ainda incerteza com relação às possíveis mudanças na precipitação e quanto às modificações na frequência de extremos climáticos, não sendo possível prever a verdadeira magnitude das perdas de produtividade do eucalipto. ABSTRACT Scenarios of climatic change linked to growth models based on ecophysiological processes may be useful to identify risks of serious consequence on the yield of planted forests, presenting the possibility to lessen the gravity of climatic change impacts and also to assess means of adaptation. The main objective of this paper is to analyze climatic change impacts on eucalyptus yield in Northern of Espirito Santo and Southern Bahia. The climate input data used in the 3-PG growth model were from two scenarios of climatic change (A2 and B2) from global model CCSR/NIES, for three periods of time: 2011 -2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. It was found that future climatic changes are most likely to decrease the eucalyptus yield, reaching a 40% reduction in scenario A2 for the 2071-2100 period and 24% for scenario B2. In spite of global models converging on the possible incremental temperatures, there is still skepticism about the change in precipitation, as well as the change in the frequency of climatic extremes, making it impossible to predict the true magnitude of eucalyptus yield losses.