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Making adaptive decisions requires predicting outcomes, and this in turn requires adapting to uncertain environments. This study explores computational challenges in distinguishing two types of noise influencing predictions: volatility and stochasticity. Volatility refers to diffusion noise in latent causes, requiring a higher learning rate, while stochasticity introduces moment-to-moment observation noise and reduces learning rate. Dissociating these effects is challenging as both increase the variance of observations. Previous research examined these factors mostly separately, but it remains unclear whether and how humans dissociate them when they are played off against one another. In two large-scale experiments, through a behavioral prediction task and computational modeling, we report evidence of humans dissociating volatility and stochasticity solely based on their observations. We observed contrasting effects of volatility and stochasticity on learning rates, consistent with statistical principles. These results are consistent with a computational model that estimates volatility and stochasticity by balancing their dueling effects., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Previous research has stressed the importance of uncertainty for controlling the speed of learning, and how such control depends on the learner inferring the noise properties of the environment, especially volatility: the speed of change. However, learning rates are jointly determined by the comparison between volatility and a second factor, moment-to-moment stochasticity. Yet much previous research has focused on simplified cases corresponding to estimation of either factor alone. Here, we introduce a learning model, in which both factors are learned simultaneously from experience, and use the model to simulate human and animal data across many seemingly disparate neuroscientific and behavioral phenomena. By considering the full problem of joint estimation, we highlight a set of previously unappreciated issues, arising from the mutual interdependence of inference about volatility and stochasticity. This interdependence complicates and enriches the interpretation of previous results, such as pathological learning in individuals with anxiety and following amygdala damage., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

It is thought that the brain's judicious reuse of previous computation underlies our ability to plan flexibly, but also that inappropriate reuse gives rise to inflexibilities like habits and compulsion. Yet we lack a complete, realistic account of either. Building on control engineering, here we introduce a model for decision making in the brain that reuses a temporally abstracted map of future events to enable biologically-realistic, flexible choice at the expense of specific, quantifiable biases. It replaces the classic nonlinear, model-based optimization with a linear approximation that softly maximizes around (and is weakly biased toward) a default policy. This solution demonstrates connections between seemingly disparate phenomena across behavioral neuroscience, notably flexible replanning with biases and cognitive control. It also provides insight into how the brain can represent maps of long-distance contingencies stably and componentially, as in entorhinal response fields, and exploit them to guide choice even under changing goals., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Sound principles of statistical inference dictate that uncertainty shapes learning. In this work, we revisit the question of learning in volatile environments, in which both the first and second-order statistics of observations dynamically evolve over time. We propose a new model, the volatile Kalman filter (VKF), which is based on a tractable state-space model of uncertainty and extends the Kalman filter algorithm to volatile environments. The proposed model is algorithmically simple and encompasses the Kalman filter as a special case. Specifically, in addition to the error-correcting rule of Kalman filter for learning observations, the VKF learns volatility according to a second error-correcting rule. These dual updates echo and contextualize classical psychological models of learning, in particular hybrid accounts of Pearce-Hall and Rescorla-Wagner. At the computational level, compared with existing models, the VKF gives up some flexibility in the generative model to enable a more faithful approximation to exact inference. When fit to empirical data, the VKF is better behaved than alternatives and better captures human choice data in two independent datasets of probabilistic learning tasks. The proposed model provides a coherent account of learning in stable or volatile environments and has implications for decision neuroscience research., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Learning and decision-making are modulated by socio-emotional processing and such modulation is implicated in clinically relevant personality traits of social anxiety. The present study elucidates the computational and neural mechanisms by which emotionally aversive cues disrupt learning in socially anxious human individuals. Healthy volunteers with low or high trait social anxiety performed a reversal learning task requiring learning actions in response to angry or happy face cues. Choice data were best captured by a computational model in which learning rate was adjusted according to the history of surprises. High trait socially anxious individuals used a less-dynamic strategy for adjusting their learning rate in trials started with angry face cues and unlike the low social anxiety group, their dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) activity did not covary with the learning rate. Our results demonstrate that trait social anxiety is accompanied by disruption of optimal learning and dACC activity in threatening situations. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Social anxiety is known to influence a broad range of cognitive functions. This study tests whether and how social anxiety affects human value-based learning as a function of uncertainty in the learning environment. The findings indicate that, in a threatening context evoked by an angry face, socially anxious individuals fail to benefit from a stable learning environment with highly predictable stimulus-response-outcome associations. Under those circumstances, socially anxious individuals failed to use their dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, a region known to adjust learning rate to environmental uncertainty. These findings open the way to modify neurobiological mechanisms of maladaptive learning in anxiety and depressive disorders., (Copyright © 2019 the authors 0270-6474/19/391445-12$15.00/0.)

We review the key findings in the application of neuroeconomics to the study of addiction. Although there are not "bright line" boundaries between neuroeconomics and other areas of behavioral science, neuroeconomics coheres around the topic of the neural representations of "Value" (synonymous with the "decision utility" of behavioral economics). Neuroeconomics parameterizes distinct features of Valuation, going beyond the general construct of "reward sensitivity" widely used in addiction research. We argue that its modeling refinements might facilitate the identification of neural substrates that contribute to addiction. We highlight two areas of neuroeconomics that have been particularly productive. The first is research on neural correlates of delay discounting (reduced Valuation of rewards as a function of their delay). The second is work that models how Value is learned as a function of "prediction-error" signaling. Although both areas are part of the neuroeconomic program, delay discounting research grows directly out of behavioral economics, whereas prediction-error work is grounded in models of learning. We also consider efforts to apply neuroeconomics to the study of self-control and discuss challenges for this area. We argue that neuroeconomic work has the potential to generate breakthrough research in addiction science., (Copyright © 2012 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Instrumental responses are hypothesized to be of two kinds: habitual and goal-directed, mediated by the sensorimotor and the associative cortico-basal ganglia circuits, respectively. The existence of the two heterogeneous associative learning mechanisms can be hypothesized to arise from the comparative advantages that they have at different stages of learning. In this paper, we assume that the goal-directed system is behaviourally flexible, but slow in choice selection. The habitual system, in contrast, is fast in responding, but inflexible in adapting its behavioural strategy to new conditions. Based on these assumptions and using the computational theory of reinforcement learning, we propose a normative model for arbitration between the two processes that makes an approximately optimal balance between search-time and accuracy in decision making. Behaviourally, the model can explain experimental evidence on behavioural sensitivity to outcome at the early stages of learning, but insensitivity at the later stages. It also explains that when two choices with equal incentive values are available concurrently, the behaviour remains outcome-sensitive, even after extensive training. Moreover, the model can explain choice reaction time variations during the course of learning, as well as the experimental observation that as the number of choices increases, the reaction time also increases. Neurobiologically, by assuming that phasic and tonic activities of midbrain dopamine neurons carry the reward prediction error and the average reward signals used by the model, respectively, the model predicts that whereas phasic dopamine indirectly affects behaviour through reinforcing stimulus-response associations, tonic dopamine can directly affect behaviour through manipulating the competition between the habitual and the goal-directed systems and thus, affect reaction time.