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Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'., (© 2017 The Authors.)

An appreciation of how some species are becoming more common despite unprecedented anthropogenic pressures could offer key insights for mitigating the global biodiversity crisis.  Research to date has largely focused on declining species, while species that are becoming more common have received relatively little attention. Macro-moths in Great Britain are well-studied and species-rich, making them an ideal group for addressing this knowledge gap. Here, we examine changes in 51 successful species between 1968 and 2016 using 4.5 million occurrence records and a systematic monitoring dataset. We employ 3D graphical analysis to visualise long-term multidimensional trends in prevalence (abundance and range) and use vector autoregression models to test whether past values of local abundance are useful for predicting changes in the extent of occurrence. The responses of Anthropocene winners are heterogeneous, suggesting multiple drivers are responsible. Changes in range and local abundance frequently occur intermittently through time, demonstrating the value of long-term, continuous monitoring. There is significant diversity among the winners themselves, which include widespread generalists, habitat specialists, and recent colonists. We offer brief discussion of possible causal factors and the wider ecosystem implications of these trends.

Regular reassessment of extinction risk is critical to prioritise conservation action during the current period of rapid, anthropogenic biodiversity change.Butterflies are a flagship group for insect monitoring and conservation, as they are highly visible, well studied and exhibit rapid responses to environmental change. Here, we use systematic population monitoring data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and citizen‐science derived occurrence records to provide an updated assessment of extinction risk in Great Britain (GB) by applying current International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) criteria to 62 butterfly species.The resulting regional Red List categorises four species as Regionally Extinct, 24 (41% of the remaining, extant species) as threatened (8 Endangered and 16 Vulnerable), 5 (9%) as Near Threatened and 29 (50%) as Least Concern. Recent reduction in population size (Criterion A) based on smoothed, long‐term time series of abundance and occurrence data, was responsible for most of the threatened or Near Threatened categorisations.While the status of some species improved, likely due to conservation efforts, the revised Red List demonstrates an ongoing deterioration in the status of GB butterflies, with a 26% increase in threatened species since the previous assessment.A greater proportion of butterflies was classed as threatened than for most other GB taxa. While this may stem from greater data availability for butterflies than most other groups (thus allowing tests of extinction risk against more criteria), it highlights the need to reinvigorate conservation efforts for these charismatic insects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The night‐time environment is increasingly being lit, often by broad‐spectrum lighting, and there is growing evidence that artificial light at night (ALAN) has consequences for ecosystems, potentially contributing to declines in insect populations.Moths are species‐rich, sensitive to ALAN, and have undergone declines in Europe, making them the ideal group for investigating the impacts of light pollution on nocturnal insects more broadly. Here, we take a life cycle approach to review the impacts of ALAN on moths, drawing on a range of disciplines including ecology, physiology, and applied entomology.We find evidence of diverse impacts across most life stages and key behaviours. Many studies have examined flight‐to‐light behaviour in adults and our meta‐analysis found that mercury vapour, metal halide, and compact fluorescent bulbs induce this more than LED and sodium lamps. However, we found that ALAN can also disrupt reproduction, larval development, and pupal diapause, with likely negative impacts on individual fitness, and that moths can be indirectly affected via hostplants and predators. These findings indicate that ALAN could also affect day‐flying insects through impacts on earlier life stages.Overall, we found strong evidence for effects of artificial light on moth behaviour and physiology, but little rigorous, direct evidence that this scales up to impacts on populations. Crucially, there is a need to determine the potential contribution of ALAN to insect declines, relative to other drivers of change. In the meantime, we recommend precautionary strategies to mitigate possible negative effects of ALAN on insect populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species' life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species. Many species' life cycles have moved earlier in the year because of climate change, but we do not know the consequences for range expansions. The authors show that these advances promote range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year, but not in species with only one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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1. Moths are globally relevant as pollinators but nocturnal pollination remains poorly understood. Plant–pollinator interaction networks are traditionally constructed using either flower‐visitor observations or pollen‐transport detection using microscopy. Recent studies have shown the potential of DNA metabarcoding for detecting and identifying pollen‐transport interactions. However, no study has directly compared the realised observations of pollen‐transport networks between DNA metabarcoding and conventional light microscopy. 2. Using matched samples of nocturnal moths, we constructed pollen‐transport networks using two methods: light microscopy and DNA metabarcoding. Focussing on the feeding mouthparts of moths, we developed and provide reproducible methods for merging DNA metabarcoding and ecological network analysis to better understand species interactions. 3. DNA metabarcoding detected pollen on more individual moths, and detected multiple pollen types on more individuals than microscopy, although the average number of pollen types per individual was unchanged. However, after aggregating individuals of each species, metabarcoding detected more interactions per moth species. Pollen‐transport network metrics differed between methods because of variation in the ability of each to detect multiple pollen types per moth and to separate morphologically similar or related pollen. We detected unexpected but plausible moth–plant interactions with metabarcoding, revealing new detail about nocturnal pollination systems. 4. The nocturnal pollination networks observed using metabarcoding and microscopy were similar yet distinct, with implications for network ecologists. Comparisons between networks constructed using metabarcoding and traditional methods should therefore be treated with caution. Nevertheless, the potential applications of metabarcoding for studying plant–pollinator interaction networks are encouraging, especially when investigating understudied pollinators such as moths. We constructed nocturnal pollination networks for matched samples of moths from a U.K. agro‐ecosystem, using a conventional light microscopy approach and a DNA metabarcoding approach.DNA metabarcoding detected more pollen‐transport interactions per moth species than microscopy, and had a greater ability to separate morphologically similar or related pollen types.We detected previously unknown moth–plant pollen‐transport interactions, including pollen of several insect‐pollinated crop species, highlighting a need for research into the possible role of moths as ecosystem service providers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Butterflies and moths, collectively Lepidoptera, are integral components of ecosystems, providing key services such as pollination and a prey resource for vertebrate and invertebrate predators. Lepidoptera are a relatively well studied group of invertebrates. In Great Britain and Ireland numerous citizen science projects provide data on changes in distribution and abundance. The availability of high‐quality monitoring and recording data, combined with the rapid response of Lepidoptera to environmental change, makes them ideal candidates for traits‐based ecological studies. Recently, there has been an increase in the number of studies documenting traits‐based responses of Lepidoptera, highlighting the demand for a standardized and referenced traits database. There is a wide range of primary and secondary literature sources available regarding the ecology of British and Irish Lepidoptera to support such studies. Currently these sources have not been collated into one central repository that would facilitate and enhance future research. Here, we present a comprehensive traits database for the butterflies and macro‐moths of Great Britain and Ireland. The database covers 968 species in 21 families. Ecological traits fall into four main categories: life cycle ecology and phenology, host plant specificity and characteristics, breeding habitat, and morphological characteristics. The database also contains data regarding species distribution, conservation status, and temporal trends for abundance and occupancy. This database can be used for a wide array of purposes including further fundamental research on species and community responses to environmental change, conservation and management studies, and evolutionary biology. There are no copyright restrictions, and this paper must be cited if data are used in publications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among drivers of environmental change, artificial light at night is relatively poorly understood, yet is increasing on a global scale. The community-level effects of existing street lights on moths and their biotic interactions have not previously been studied. Using a combination of sampling methods at matched-pairs of lit and unlit sites, we found significant effects of street lighting: moth abundance at ground level was halved at lit sites, species richness was >25% lower, and flight activity at the level of the light was 70% greater. Furthermore, we found that 23% of moths carried pollen of at least 28 plant species and that there was a consequent overall reduction in pollen transport at lit sites. These findings support the disruptive impact of lights on moth activity, which is one proposed mechanism driving moth declines, and suggest that street lighting potentially impacts upon pollination by nocturnal invertebrates. We highlight the importance of considering both direct and cascading impacts of artificial light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Biotic regionalization provides fundamental information for biogeography and conservation. The current consensus is to couple turnover indices and clustering methods to identify regions with distinct biotic composition. Nevertheless, turnover indices can produce large numbers of zero and tied dissimilarity values generating multiple clustering solutions which vary according to the arbitrary order of cases in the input matrix. Zero and tied values are particularly numerous at mid-small spatial scales where low signals for turnover occur. Turnover patterns can be also obscured by incomplete sampling. 2. We have designed a new method (recluster.region) based on the creation of a new dissimilarity matrix involving a continuous consensus of cell clustering among different random trees. This matrix minimizes the bias produced by zero and tied values before the final clustering. We created virtual data sets with a priori generated turnover areas and compared the power of the new and of classicmethods in recognizing regionalization patterns on the basis of several evaluators (consistency among runs, correct attribution, mean silhouette width and explained dissimilarity) for different levels of sampling intensity [collection completeness (CC)]. We also used a real data set of British butterflies recorded for 10 9 10 km² cells to test ourmethod. 3. All methods were sensitive to the order of cases in the dissimilarity matrix. Some methods (UPGMA, UPGMC, WPGMA, WPGMC and single linkage) also produced ineffective clustering solutions. Our recluster. region procedures had higher consistency compared to classic clustering and performed best in recognizing the a priori determined regions in virtual data sets (mostly when in association withWard clustering).Moreover, for the real butterfly data set, recluster.region associated with Ward method and to a lesser extent with DIANA and complete linkage resulted in stable solutions, which largely agreed with the distribution of a set of species identified as responsible for generating the turnover pattern. The Ward method also performed best with low CC. 4. Regionalization can be greatly improved by using the recluster.region algorithm. For the data set of butterflies, it clearly revealed the occurrence of three faunistic regions, supporting the existence of a Holocene climatic refuge and a current Anthropocene refuge in northern and western Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade ( N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade ( N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Moths ( Lepidoptera) are the major nocturnal pollinators of flowers. However, their importance and contribution to the provision of pollination ecosystem services may have been under-appreciated. Evidence was identified that moths are important pollinators of a diverse range of plant species in diverse ecosystems across the world. 2. Moth populations are known to be undergoing significant declines in several European countries. Among the potential drivers of this decline is increasing light pollution. The known and possible effects of artificial night lighting upon moths were reviewed, and suggest how artificial night lighting might in turn affect the provision of pollination by moths. The need for studies of the effects of artificial night lighting upon whole communities of moths was highlighted. 3. An ecological network approach is one valuable method to consider the effects of artificial night lighting upon the provision of pollination by moths, as it provides useful insights into ecosystem functioning and stability, and may help elucidate the indirect effects of artificial light upon communities of moths and the plants they pollinate. 4. It was concluded that nocturnal pollination is an ecosystem process that may potentially be disrupted by increasing light pollution, although the nature of this disruption remains to be tested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microclimate has been known to drive variation in the distribution and abundance of insects for some time. Until recently however, quantification of microclimatic effects has been limited by computing constraints and the availability of fine-scale biological data. Here, we tested fine-scale patterns of persistence/extinction in butterflies and moths against two computed indices of microclimate derived from Digital Elevation Models: a summer solar index, representing fine-scale variation in temperature, and a topographic wetness index, representing fine-scale variation in moisture availability. We found evidence of microclimate effects on persistence in each of four 20 × 20 km British landscapes selected for study (the Brecks, the Broads, Dartmoor, and Exmoor). Broadly, local extinctions occurred more frequently in areas with higher minimum or maximum solar radiation input, while responses to wetness varied with landscape context. This negative response to solar radiation is consistent with a response to climatic warming, wherein grid squares with particularly high minimum or maximum insolation values provided an increasingly adverse microclimate as the climate warmed. The variable response to wetness in different landscapes may have reflected spatially variable trends in precipitation. We suggest that locations in the landscape featuring cooler minimum and/or maximum temperatures could act as refugia from climatic warming, and may therefore have a valuable role in adapting conservation to climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species' distributions are likely to be affected by a combination of environmental drivers. We used a data set of 11 million species occurrence records over the period 1970-2010 to assess changes in the frequency of occurrence of 673 macro-moth species in Great Britain. Groups of species with different predicted sensitivities showed divergent trends, which we interpret in the context of land-use and climatic changes., A diversity of responses was revealed: 260 moth species declined significantly, whereas 160 increased significantly. Overall, frequencies of occurrence declined, mirroring trends in less species-rich, yet more intensively studied taxa., Geographically widespread species, which were predicted to be more sensitive to land use than to climate change, declined significantly in southern Britain, where the cover of urban and arable land has increased., Moths associated with low nitrogen and open environments (based on their larval host plant characteristics) declined most strongly, which is also consistent with a land-use change explanation., Some moths that reach their northern (leading edge) range limit in southern Britain increased, whereas species restricted to northern Britain (trailing edge) declined significantly, consistent with a climate change explanation., Not all species of a given type behaved similarly, suggesting that complex interactions between species' attributes and different combinations of environmental drivers determine frequency of occurrence changes., Synthesis and applications. Our findings are consistent with large-scale responses to climatic and land-use changes, with some species increasing and others decreasing. We suggest that land-use change (e.g. habitat loss, nitrogen deposition) and climate change are both major drivers of moth biodiversity change, acting independently and in combination. Importantly, the diverse responses revealed in this species-rich taxon show that multifaceted conservation strategies are needed to minimize negative biodiversity impacts of multiple environmental changes. We suggest that habitat protection, management and ecological restoration can mitigate combined impacts of land-use change and climate change by providing environments that are suitable for existing populations and also enable species to shift their ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many species are expanding at their leading-edge range boundaries in response to climate warming. Species are known to respond individualistically to climate change, but there has been little consideration of whether responses are consistent over time. We compared responses of 37 southerly distributed British butterflies over two study periods, first between 1970-1982 and 1995-1999 and then between 1995-1999 and 2005-2009, when mean annual temperature increased regionally by 0.03 °C yr−1 (a significant rate of increase) and 0.01 °C yr−1(a nonsignificant increase) respectively. Our study species might be expected to benefit from climate warming. We measured three responses to climate to investigate this; changes in range margin, distribution area and abundance. In general, the responses of species were inconsistent over time. Species that increased their distribution areas during the first period tended to do so again during the second period, but the relationship was weak. Changes in range margins and abundance were not consistent. In addition, only 5/37 species showed qualitatively similar responses in all three response variables over time (three species increased and two species declined in all variables in both periods). Overall rates of range expansion and distribution area change were significantly greater in the second study period, despite the lower rate of warming, perhaps due to species exploiting climate-distribution lags remaining from the earlier, warmer period. However, there was a significantly greater decline in abundance during the second study period, so range expansions northwards were not necessarily accompanied by increases in distribution area and/or abundance. Hence, species ranges have been thinning as they have expanded northwards. The idiosyncratic responses of these species likely reflect the balance of climatic and habitat drivers of species distribution and abundance changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Confidence in projections of the future distributions of species requires demonstration that recently-observed changes could have been predicted adequately. Here we use a dynamic model framework to demonstrate that recently-observed changes at the expanding northern boundaries of three British butterfly species can be predicted with good accuracy. Previous work established that the distributions of the study species currently lag behind climate change, and so we presumed that climate is not currently a major constraint at the northern range margins of our study species. We predicted 1970–2000 distribution changes using a colonisation model, MIGRATE, superimposed on a high-resolution map of habitat availability. Thirty-year rates and patterns of distribution change could be accurately predicted for each species (κ goodness-of-fit of models >0.64 for all three species, corresponding to >83% of grid cells correctly assigned), using a combination of individual species traits, species-specific habitat associations and distance-dependent dispersal. Sensitivity analyses showed that population productivity was the most important determinant of the rate of distribution expansion (variation in dispersal rate was not studied because the species are thought to be similar in dispersal capacity), and that each species’ distribution prior to expansion was critical in determining the spatial pattern of the current distribution. In future, modelling approaches that combine climate suitability and spatially-explicit population models, incorporating demographic variables and habitat availability, are likely to be valuable tools in projecting species’ responses to climatic change and hence in anticipating management to facilitate species’ dispersal and persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A fundamental problem in estimating biodiversity loss is that very little quantitative data are available for insects, which comprise more than two-thirds of terrestrial species. We present national population trends for a species-rich and ecologically diverse insect group: widespread and common macro-moths in Britain. Two-thirds of the 337 species studied have declined over the 35yr study and 21% (71) of the species declined >30% 10yr−1. If IUCN (World Conservation Union) criteria are applied at the national scale, these 71 species would be regarded as threatened. The declines are at least as great as those recently reported for British butterflies and exceed those of British birds and vascular plants. These results have important and worrying implications for species such as insectivorous birds and bats, and suggests as-yet undetected declines may be widespread among temperate-zone insects. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]