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This paper presents a techno-economic and risk analysis of a kraft lignin (KL) biorefinery (3000 tonne of KL·year-1 capacity), where KL is depolymerized to produce depolymerized kraft lignin (DKL) as a bio-substitute to polyol and phenol for the production of bio-based polymers (polyurethane and phenolic resins). Three scenarios were examined: (i) DKL as a phenol substitute, (ii) DKL as a polyol substitute, and (iii) oxypropylated depolymerized kraft lignin (Oxy-DKL) a polyol substitute. The Net Present Value was calculated to compare these scenarios. To address the uncertainty risks in feedstock and product price, a sensitivity analysis and a Monte Carlo simulation were performed. Results show that DKL and Oxy-DKL derived from the KL biorefinery are a feasible bio-substitute for petroleum- based polyols with a minimum selling price of 1440 and 1623 US$·t-1, respectively. However, DKL is likely not feasible when replacing phenol (minimum selling price of 1421 US$·t-1) due to the current low market price of phenol. The feasibility of the KL biorefinery is highly sensitive to the market prices of the products. Feedstock supply and market demand for lignin-derived biopolyols are still uncertain; therefore, a supply chain design model is necessary for decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Lignin is an abundant renewable feedstock for bioenergy, chemicals and materials production. Numerous review papers have addressed lignin research; though, a limited focus has been given to lignin commercial initiatives and its market applications potential. However, this is an area of great importance, given the growth of commercial lignin production. For instance, expressed in the strategic directions taken by pulp mills with kraft lignin valorization as a primary pathway in their transformation to the biorefinery. This work aims to provide concrete information on the global lignin market and supply, and to discuss its most explored applications - these being phenols and polyols due to their importance in short- and mid-terms lignin market development. Over the years, lignosulfonates have dominated the market. However, kraft lignin production increased by 150% from 2014 to 2018, competing with lignosulfonates to some extent. Even with the increased kraft lignin precipitation, it should remain a bioenergy source for kraft mills in the short- and mid-terms, with only its surplus being directed to biochemicals and biomaterials. The most demonstrated market application of kraft lignin is the production of biophenol, with biopolyol as a prone application in the mid-term. In both cases, lignin modification to obtain uniform and reactive biochemicals could allow faster market penetration. Besides, phenol and polyol markets are expected to grow globally providing an opportunity for biopolymers. The main recommendations are related to scaling up technologies to achieve technical and economic optimization of lignin applications as well as collaborative research efforts connecting stakeholders in the value chain. • Kraft lignin recovery in pulp mills worldwide was 265,000 t in 2018. • Lignin modification is vital for superior substitution, enhancement and stability. • De-polymerization at mild conditions is a feasible option for lignin upgrading. • Promising lignin value-added applications in the short-term are phenols and polyols. • In the long-term are thermoplastics and carbon with an expected fast-growing demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]