1. Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters
- Author
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Jansen, Joachim, Woolway, Richard Iestyn, Kraemer, Benjamin M., Albergel, Clément, Bastviken, David, Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Marcé, Rafael, Sharma, Sapna, Sobek, Sebastian, Tranvik, Lars J., Perroud, Marjorie, Golub, Malgorzata, Moore, Tadhg N., Råman Vinnå, Love, La Fuente, Sofia, Grant, Luke, Pierson, Don C., Thiery, Wim, Jennings, Eleanor, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, and Faculty of Engineering
- Subjects
Climate Research ,Climate Change ,Biodiversity & Conservation ,NORTHERN LAKES ,Environmental Sciences & Ecology ,SEDIMENT CHARACTERISTICS ,aquatic ,climate change ,greenhouse gases ,limnology ,methane ,temperature ,tropics ,Global Warming ,Klimatforskning ,Environmental Chemistry ,CH4 EMISSIONS ,General Environmental Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,Science & Technology ,CLIMATE-CHANGE ,CONSEQUENCES ,Ecology ,Atmosphere ,Temperature ,CONSUMPTION ,PROFILES ,EBULLITION ,Miljövetenskap ,Lakes ,ARCTIC LAKES ,TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENCE ,Biodiversity Conservation ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Methane ,Environmental Sciences - Abstract
Lakes are significant emitters of methane to the atmosphere, and thus are important components of the global methane budget. Methane is typically produced in lake sediments, with the rate of methane production being strongly temperature dependent. Local and regional studies highlight the risk of increasing methane production under future climate change, but a global estimate is not currently available. Here, we project changes in global lake bottom temperatures and sediment methane production rates from 1901 to 2099. By the end of the 21st century, lake bottom temperatures are projected to increase globally, by an average of 0.86-2.60 degrees C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6-8.5, with greater warming projected at lower latitudes. This future warming of bottom waters will likely result in an increase in methane production rates of 13%-40% by the end of the century, with many low-latitude lakes experiencing an increase of up to 17 times the historical (1970-1999) global average under RCP 8.5. The projected increase in methane production will likely lead to higher emissions from lakes, although the exact magnitude of the emission increase requires more detailed regional studies. Funding Agencies|Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft [AD 91/22-1]; European Regional Development Fund [FEDER--MCIU-AEI/CGL2017-86788-C3-2-P]; FP7 Ideas: European Research Council [336642]; H2020 European Research Council [725546]; Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse [KAW 2018-0191]; Natural Environment Research Council
- Published
- 2022