1. Development and External Validation of the Munich Sorafenib Evaluation Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma.
- Author
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Op den Winkel M, Nagel D, Seidensticker M, De Toni EN, Merz J, Op den Winkel J, Öcal O, Stecher SS, Bourhis H, Malfertheiner P, Mayerle J, Ricke J, and Kolligs FT
- Subjects
- Humans, Sorafenib therapeutic use, Phenylurea Compounds therapeutic use, Neoplasm Staging, Retrospective Studies, Prognosis, Carcinoma, Hepatocellular pathology, Liver Neoplasms pathology, Antineoplastic Agents therapeutic use
- Abstract
Introduction: In recent years, increasing options for systemic HCC treatment have become available. The development of therapy-specific prognostic scores has been encouraged. Tailoring therapy to individual patients requires prognostic scores for treatment success in addition to the Barcelona-Clinic-Liver-Cancer (BCLC) classification. We have developed and validated a prognostic score for patients treated with sorafenib., Methods: Prognostic factors identified in a multivariate analysis of 108 sorafenib patients were used to construct the Munich Sorafenib Evaluation (M-SE) score. M-SE and 9 established HCC prognostic systems were ranked according to concordance-index and AIC. External M-SE validation was performed in an independent HCC sorafenib cohort (n = 101) derived from the prospective multicenter randomized controlled SORAMIC trial., Results: Ascites (p < 0.0001; HR 2.923), tumor burden ≥50% of the liver (p = 0.0033; HR 1.946), and GOT (p < 0.0001; HR 1.716) were identified as independent prognostic parameters. All three M-SE stages were characterized by significantly different survival times (p < 0.0001). M-SE stage-A patients had a median OS of 18.7 months (95% CI: 15.6-21.8); patients in stage B and C showed a significantly shorter survival of 5.7 (2.7-8.7) and 2.0 months (1.6-2.4), respectively. M-SE (c-index 0.70; AIC 621) outperformed all other prognostic systems. External validation in a prospective cohort confirmed its superior prognostic performance., Conclusion: The M-SE score allows classification of sorafenib patients in three distinct prognostic stages. Provided that M-SE successfully passes prospective validation, it can help to predict the outcome of patients evaluated for sorafenib treatment., (© 2022 S. Karger AG, Basel.)
- Published
- 2023
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