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Locust plagues inflict severe agricultural damage. Climate change-induced extreme events like rainfall and droughts have expanded locust habitats. These new areas, often beyond routine monitoring, could become potential high-risk locust areas (PHRLA). Quantitatively understanding the outbreak mechanism driving drought and flood dynamics is crucial for identifying PHRLA, but such studies are scarce. To address this gap, we conducted a case study on locust outbreaks in Xiashan Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Shandong Province, China, in 2017 and 2018. Using time series satellite imagery and meteorological products, we quantitatively analyzed how drought–flood dynamics and temperature affect locust habitats, reproduction, and aggregation. Employing an object-oriented random forest classifier, we generated locust habitat classification maps with 93.77% average overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 0.90. Combined with meteorological analysis, we found that three consecutive drought years from 2014 to 2016 reduced the water surface area by 75%, expanding suitable habitats (primarily reeds and weeds) to cover 60% of the reservoir. Warm winters and high temperatures during locust key growth periods, coupled with expanding suitable habitats, promoted multi-generational locust reproduction. However, substantial flooding events in 2017 and 2018, driven by plentiful rainfall during key growth periods, reduced suitable habitats by approximately 54% and 29%, respectively. This compression led to high locust density, causing the locust plague and high-density spots of locusts (HDSL). Our study elucidates locust plague outbreak mechanisms under dynamic drought and flood environments. Based on this, we propose an approach to identify PHRLA by monitoring changes in drought and flood patterns around water bodies and variations in suitable habitat size and distribution, as well as surrounding topography. These findings hold significant implications for enhancing locust monitoring and early warning capabilities, reducing pesticide usage, and ensuring food and ecological security and sustainable agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outbreak of the Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria) (AML) can deal a great blow to agriculture and grassland farming. The emergence of high-density locusts facilitates the outbreak of locusts. Understanding the forming mechanism of the high-density spot of locust (HDSL) is very important for locust monitoring and control. To achieve this goal, this paper took Nong'an County, which used to form an HDSL in 2017, as the study area. Firstly, based on the habitat classification system, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and maximum likelihood (ML) methods were employed to explore the best classification method for locust habitats. Then, the optimal method was applied to monitor habitat dynamic changes from 2014 to 2017 in the HDSL in Nong'an. Finally, the HDSL forming mechanism was clarified coupled with habitat dynamic changes and meteorological data. The results showed that the SVM method was the optimal method, with an accuracy of 95.28%, which is higher than the RF and ML methods by 0.25% and 8.52%, respectively. The annual increased barren land and sufficient reeds provided adequate suitable habitats for the breeding of AML. From 2014 to 2016, the temperatures during the overwintering and hatching periods were higher than the 2010–2018 average, and the precipitation during the spawning period was lower than the 2010–2018 average. The precipitation during the growing period in 2017 was 30.8 mm less than the average from 2010 to 2018. All these characteristics were conducive to the reproduction of locusts. We concluded that the suitable habitat and meteorological conditions increased the locust quantity yearly, resulting in the formation of HDSL. These results are instrumental for monitoring potential high-risk outbreak areas, which is important to improve locust control and ensure food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Oriental migratory locust is a destructive agricultural pest in China. Large-scale locust area (the area possessing suitable breeding habitat for locusts and has locust infestation) extraction and its evolution analysis are essential for locust ecological control. Existing methods seldom consider the spatial differences in the locust development and habitat landscape structures in large areas. To analyze these effects, our study proposed a landscape-based habitat suitability model (LHS model) for large-scale locust area extraction based on remote sensing data, taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (MLYR) as an example. Firstly, the DD model was used to simulate locust development and obtain habitat factors of the corresponding dates; secondly, the patch distribution of different land cover classes and their adjacent landscape characteristics were analyzed to determine the landscape-based factors memberships; finally, the habitat suitability index was calculated by combining the factors memberships and weights to extract the locust area. Compared with the patch-based model using moving windows (patch based-analytic hierarchy process model, R2 = 0.77), the LHS model accuracy improved significantly (R2 = 0.83). Our results showed that the LHS model has a better application prospect in large-scale locust area extraction. By analyzing the locust areas evolution along the MLYR extracted using the LHS model, we found human activities were the main factors affecting the locust areas evolution from 2016 to 2020, including: (1) planting the plants that locusts do not like and urbanization caused the decrease of the locust area; (2) the wetland protection policies may cause the increase of the locust area. The model and research results help locust control and prevention to realize the sustainable development of agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An integrated patch-based habitat suitability assessment method for nationwide locust area extraction is proposed. • Dynamic changes of locust area and its evolution in China from 1995 to 2017 are analyzed. • The influences of land use/cover change on locust area evolution are quantified. • Suggestions for locust area management and monitoring are provided. The Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) is a threat to agriculture in China. The locust area is defined as an area possessing a suitable breeding habitat for this locust and has a locust outbreak at least once per decade. Ecological control of the locust area is an effective approach to manage locust with minimal environmental degradation. The formation and dynamic changes of locust areas are greatly affected by land use/cover changes (LUCC). Clarifying the LUCC in the locust area is significant for implementing rational ecological control strategies and detecting timely potential locust areas. This paper proposed a patch-based habitat suitability assessment (PHSA) method for nationwide locust area extraction. Then, a multi-temporal binary coding method was used to detect the locust area dynamic changes from 1995 to 2017. Subsequently, the relationship between LUCC and the extinction and formation of locust areas in different ecotypes was quantitatively investigated. Results show that the area of the locust area has greatly reduced over the past 20 years, and the distribution range has a large degree of temporal and spatial variation. The extinction of the locust area is closely related to the LUCC from cropland and wetland to woodland and artificial surface. It is also related to changes from grassland to cropland and woodland. The newly formed locust area shows opposite LUCC trends. These results provide practical strategies and guidance for ecological control and early monitoring of locust areas. They are instrumental in reducing pesticide use and achieving more sustainable agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]