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The identification of individuals at high risk of developing a psychotic disorder has long been a goal of clinicians because it is thought that early treatment of this group may prevent onset of the disorder. However, little is known of predictive factors of psychosis, even within a high-risk group. This study followed up 104 young people thought to be at ‘ultra high risk’ for schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders by virtue of having a family history of psychotic disorder combined with some functional decline or the presence of subthreshold or self-limiting psychotic symptoms. All subjects were therefore symptomatic, but not psychotic, at intake. Thirty-six subjects (34.6%) developed frank psychotic symptoms within 12 months.Measures of symptom duration, functioning, disability and psychopathology were made at intake, 6 and 12 months. Poor functioning, long duration of symptoms, high levels of depression and reduced attention were all predictors of psychosis. A combination of family history of psychosis, a recent significant decrease in functioning and recent experience of subthreshold psychotic symptoms was also predictive of psychosis. Combining highly predictive variables yielded a method of psychosis prediction at 12 months with good positive predictive value (80.8%), negative predictive value (81.8%) and specificity (92.6%) and moderate sensitivity (60.0%).Within our symptomatic high-risk group, therefore, it appears possible to identify those individuals who are at particularly high risk of developing a psychotic disorder such as schizophrenia. Given the very high PPV and low false positive rate with this two-step process, it may be justifiable to target these individuals for intensive monitoring of mental state and even low-dose neuroleptic medication or other biological and psychosocial treatments depending on clinical condition. This indicated prevention approach could be further developed and preventive strategies in the psychoses refined. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Introduction: Two thirds of individuals identified as ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to psychosis over the medium to long-term (non-transition; UHR-NT). Nevertheless, many of these individuals have persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS). The current study examined whether there were differences in baseline grey matter volume (i.e. at initial identification as UHR) in UHR-NT individuals whom had APS compared to those without APS (No-APS) at medium to long-term follow-up.Methods: Participants were help-seeking individuals who were identified as being at UHR for psychosis between 2 and 12years previously (mean=7.5). The sample consisted of 109 participants who underwent a Magnetic Resonance Imaging scan at baseline and who had not been observed to develop a psychotic disorder over the follow-up period (UHR-NT). Using voxel-based morphometry, baseline grey matter volume (GMV) was compared between participants with (N=30) and without (N=79) APS at follow-up.Results: At baseline, the APS and No-APS groups were clinically indistinguishable. At follow-up, the APS group had significantly worse symptoms and impaired functioning. Individuals with APS had reduced baseline GMV in frontal, temporal, posterior and cingulate regions compared to those without APS at follow-up. Reduced GMV was associated with more severe positive, negative and depressive symptoms and lower global functioning in the combined UHR-NT cohort. These associations were independent of later APS outcome.Discussion: This study found that differences in regional GMV are discernible at an early stage of UHR and may be specific to individuals who have APS and psychopathology at follow-up. Our findings suggest that lower GMV at baseline may confer neurobiological risk for later APS and/or increased psychopathology while the absence of these structural abnormalities might be protective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Valid criteria to identify young people who are believed to be at ultra high risk (UHR) of developing a psychotic episode were developed over the last decade. The first randomized controlled trial of treatment in a UHR cohort indicated that specific pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy delayed onset of disorder, and possibly reduced incidence. This paper reports results of follow-up of that trial. 41 of the 59 (69.5%) participants in the original study agreed to follow-up. No differences were found in transition rate, level of symptomatology or functioning between participants who received a combination of psychological treatment and anti-psychotic medication compared to those who received supportive therapy alone. A significant proportion of both treatment groups reported moderate levels of psychiatric morbidity and a continuing need and desire for care at this follow-up. Low levels of hospitalisation were noted for those who did progress to psychosis. Conclusions that can be drawn from this exploratory study are limited by the relatively small number of participants in the original study and the failure to follow-up the entire cohort. Although participants may have been treated too briefly to result in enduring positive effects, there appear to have been some cost savings in inpatient mental health treatment required after the end of the trial for individuals in both treatment groups who developed psychosis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]